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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
tyguy20204
Member
sonarrat said:
I sold Amazon at 58.50, a 17% swing or so from yesterday.
I think you are quite wise to be shorting it at this point. Anything that's trading at 40x its future price/earnings, in this market, deserves to come down a bit.
I think, anyway. I'm often wrong.
bggrthnjsus
Member
kinda looking into GERN and STEM
GERN was just FDA approved to begin a clinical trial of a stem cell therapy for spinal injury, which has showed promise in lab animals
GERN was just FDA approved to begin a clinical trial of a stem cell therapy for spinal injury, which has showed promise in lab animals
Ether_Snake
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How will companies like STEM do in the current situation? Less credit, less funding I would think.
Ether_Snake
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Ha! Like my Bank. I'd have to make 30 trades or so per quarter I think for the following ones to be free. It costs me $30 a trade. That's why I rarely trade, especially not on short term. Sucks:|
Ether_Snake
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I'm hoping for NTDOY to fall really low so I could buy some for cheap, like somewhere in the 20s. Sorry iifu
I'd like to get some Nintendo shares early on much earlier before any new console/portable is hinted at. They still have to release some sort of new Wii model.
I'd like to get some Nintendo shares early on much earlier before any new console/portable is hinted at. They still have to release some sort of new Wii model.
Yeah financial and auto stocks suck big time. But that means high risk high reward! :lol Or you could end up screwed. Risky game to play.
So I think we will break the 8000 barrier this week, lets see what happens. I moved my 401k to a more secure fund. I'm expecting a short term meltdown here pretty soon. Just a gut feeling, but I've been wrong many times before.
So I think we will break the 8000 barrier this week, lets see what happens. I moved my 401k to a more secure fund. I'm expecting a short term meltdown here pretty soon. Just a gut feeling, but I've been wrong many times before.
Ether_Snake
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Global crisis 'has destroyed 40pc of world wealth'
And yeah I think that the 8000 floor has been highly highly optmistic, completely artificial. I think this time we are going down for real, I expect Noubiri and co to be right in saying that we're going to lose another good 15 to 20%.
And yeah I think that the 8000 floor has been highly highly optmistic, completely artificial. I think this time we are going down for real, I expect Noubiri and co to be right in saying that we're going to lose another good 15 to 20%.
Ether_Snake
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Ether_Snake
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tarius1210 said:
What do you mean? It is at 5.64. I got a total of around 1000 shares or a bit more, worth around $9 a share (haven't look at my portfolio recently). I would buy more if I had the money, but I'm keeping to add to BHI and then HON (not too hyped about HON though, but I have to add some to it cause I bought a while ago, something like at 45 or so I forget). The only company in my portfolio with ATVI I could sleep on, but moreso than ATVI.
Ether_Snake
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sonarrat: you don't set a limit? From what I understand, when you short you could have unlimited losses.
ERTS is up 4% in AH after being up 4% today, and I'm surprised considering they just lowered their forecast and delayed three games.
I'm very confident in ATVI, especially over the long term. I still have my shares I bought in summer 2007, plus 100 more I bought recently at 9.74 or so. I think they are better positioned than anyone else. It's more about the market itself at this point IMO.
ERTS is up 4% in AH after being up 4% today, and I'm surprised considering they just lowered their forecast and delayed three games.
I'm very confident in ATVI, especially over the long term. I still have my shares I bought in summer 2007, plus 100 more I bought recently at 9.74 or so. I think they are better positioned than anyone else. It's more about the market itself at this point IMO.
Ether_Snake
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tarius1210 said:
I have no idea! :lol Judging from the contracts they have been getting recently, I'm thinking they are doing well even in the recession. I think their aim to rely less on the US has been working. What I would really like to hear in the future is that they are looking at ways to make standalone simulators more versatile. I'm thinking one day you won't need simulators to be built for specific aircraft types. And it would be nice if they could diversify in other types of simulations too, anything like trains, subways, boats, etc. One day you'll be able to simulate any vehicle and its controls inside a black box
But more seriously, another thing to take into consideration is that CGT is paid in US dollars from what I know, and the recent rise must have been good for them. I remember they had been suffering from the rise of the CAD VS the USD a few months ago before things settled back.
Anyway I'm confident! But don't expect sharp upward movement even with good earnings, I never saw a sudden surge in CGT's share price. I'm thinking that since we're in a recession, even good results won't lead to a rally.
BTW the one thing I think allows ATVI to stand out above the competition is their lineup diversity. They are obviously doing it right; making sure their games don't compete with one another at any level, and can be expanded over time. They got the perfect strategy IMO. I wish we had that kind of management.
toxicgonzo
Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?
Ether_Snake said:
Only in theory. If you're shorting, which pretty much has to be done in a margin account, your broker has margin limits set for you (i.e. 40%). If you reach your margin limit, your broker will sell your positions immediately. Hopefully, you'll get a margin call before you reach that point.
I guessed right today on it being green. I have a touch for this shit or something. We are close to the bottom soon though. Summer 2009 will be catastrophic. Hopefully, the market will pull out afterward. Depends on the government's action.
Now? Moment to start businesses, buy long-range stocks and check oil contracts.
Now? Moment to start businesses, buy long-range stocks and check oil contracts.
Ether_Snake
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tyguy20204
Member
Some notable earnings coming up:
Tomorrow:
Philip Morris (PM)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Clorox (CXL)
Kraft
Allergan
Prudential Financial
Time Warner
MetLife
Thermo Fisher
Devon Energy
Thursday:
Mastercard (MA)
Kellogg (K)
Cardinal Health
Philip Morris, when looking at its fundamentals, seems like a great buy right now. Good dividend yield as well. I would think its earnings would be fine. I might get into this one.
Cisco is VERY attractively priced. But what will its earnings be like? Tough to say. I'm tempted to get into this one, HUGE, but I don't think I'll do it.
Clorox is positioned well for the recession, in that its products are consumer staples. Bleach, Glad bags, kitty litter, a whole mess of things. I would bet its earnings will be good.
Now, Mastercard. I've had my eye on this stock. Obviously, common sense tells me that credit card companies are not the best buy right now. But in recent history, Mastercard has handily beaten expectations. +30% Dec 2007, +5.5% Mar 2008, 9.78% Jun 2008. Things have gotten much worse than then, but, it's not like people will quit with credit cards entirely, right?
Of course, Mastercard has a net loss the past couple quarters. At the same time, their revenue has been growing at a great rate. Their profit margin is exceedingly healthy, they have little debt, and they have $2 billion in cash reserves.
Here's a snapshot:MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is expected to post a fourth-quarter profit that is 45.4% higher that a year ago, or $1.63 per share. Its revenue is expected to be $1.2 billion, which is 12.7% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $8.83 per share on revenue of $5.0 billion, up from $5.69 per share on $4.1 billion. MasterCard's earnings have beat estimates in the past five quarters, by as much as 29.5%. The consensus recommendation of analysts has been to buy MA for more than 90 days. The long-range EPS growth forecast is 17.5%, better than that of rival American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), which posted lower earnings last week. MasterCard shares have fallen 5.0% since the beginning of the year and are 36.0% lower than a year ago. MasterCard also recently declared a quarterly dividend, as well as changes to adapt to the economic climate. Rival Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) is also expected to report this week, and analysts expect to see more modest earnings growth.
Another thing: There's 12 million worth of short interest in MA right now. If their earnings are good there will be a short squeeze, meaning a quick shot up.
I think I've convinced myself to buy Mastercard while doing this write up. We'll see. I may not buy any of these. Playing earnings is quite risky.
Tomorrow:
Philip Morris (PM)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Clorox (CXL)
Kraft
Allergan
Prudential Financial
Time Warner
MetLife
Thermo Fisher
Devon Energy
Thursday:
Mastercard (MA)
Kellogg (K)
Cardinal Health
Philip Morris, when looking at its fundamentals, seems like a great buy right now. Good dividend yield as well. I would think its earnings would be fine. I might get into this one.
Cisco is VERY attractively priced. But what will its earnings be like? Tough to say. I'm tempted to get into this one, HUGE, but I don't think I'll do it.
Clorox is positioned well for the recession, in that its products are consumer staples. Bleach, Glad bags, kitty litter, a whole mess of things. I would bet its earnings will be good.
Now, Mastercard. I've had my eye on this stock. Obviously, common sense tells me that credit card companies are not the best buy right now. But in recent history, Mastercard has handily beaten expectations. +30% Dec 2007, +5.5% Mar 2008, 9.78% Jun 2008. Things have gotten much worse than then, but, it's not like people will quit with credit cards entirely, right?
Of course, Mastercard has a net loss the past couple quarters. At the same time, their revenue has been growing at a great rate. Their profit margin is exceedingly healthy, they have little debt, and they have $2 billion in cash reserves.
Here's a snapshot:MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is expected to post a fourth-quarter profit that is 45.4% higher that a year ago, or $1.63 per share. Its revenue is expected to be $1.2 billion, which is 12.7% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $8.83 per share on revenue of $5.0 billion, up from $5.69 per share on $4.1 billion. MasterCard's earnings have beat estimates in the past five quarters, by as much as 29.5%. The consensus recommendation of analysts has been to buy MA for more than 90 days. The long-range EPS growth forecast is 17.5%, better than that of rival American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), which posted lower earnings last week. MasterCard shares have fallen 5.0% since the beginning of the year and are 36.0% lower than a year ago. MasterCard also recently declared a quarterly dividend, as well as changes to adapt to the economic climate. Rival Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) is also expected to report this week, and analysts expect to see more modest earnings growth.
Another thing: There's 12 million worth of short interest in MA right now. If their earnings are good there will be a short squeeze, meaning a quick shot up.
I think I've convinced myself to buy Mastercard while doing this write up. We'll see. I may not buy any of these. Playing earnings is quite risky.
Ether_Snake
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EA up 11.7%
If I was into shorting, I would, for short term.
And an interesting picture:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
If I was into shorting, I would, for short term.
And an interesting picture:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
tyguy20204
Member
Cisco's earnings a little lower than expected, bad outlook for 2009.
Philip Morris pretty much met earnings, the strong dollar took away a lot of their profit.
I jumped in pretty huge on Mastercard, at 140. Visa just blew away expectations and MasterCard is up 4% in after hours, with people no doubt thinking MasterCard will do the same when they report tomorrow morning.
Here's hoping.
Philip Morris pretty much met earnings, the strong dollar took away a lot of their profit.
I jumped in pretty huge on Mastercard, at 140. Visa just blew away expectations and MasterCard is up 4% in after hours, with people no doubt thinking MasterCard will do the same when they report tomorrow morning.
Here's hoping.
Ether_Snake
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THQI down 9% in AH after missing estimates. Cuts 600 jobs. TTWO trading at $6, but I'm not buying anything from them (management must feel humiliated for not having sold at 25.75).
tyguy20204
Member
MasterCard is up about 11% so far.
Good day for me =)
Good day for me =)
Ether_Snake
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ERTS up another 9%. Crazy. THQI down 17%.
EDIT: China Declares Highest Level of Drought Emergency
I might buy some DBC eventually. I think that since we're in rough times we'll be unlucky enough to get a lot of terrible crops, hurricanes, etc., that should get the price of oil and weath and corn up.
BTW I'm probably finally adding to BHI soon, sucks that it's at 35 right now but we'll see next week.
EDIT: China Declares Highest Level of Drought Emergency
I might buy some DBC eventually. I think that since we're in rough times we'll be unlucky enough to get a lot of terrible crops, hurricanes, etc., that should get the price of oil and weath and corn up.
BTW I'm probably finally adding to BHI soon, sucks that it's at 35 right now but we'll see next week.
So, thought this might be a good place to ask this, since I assume at least some of you do your own taxes.
This is the first year I've played around with stocks, and I'm a bit stuck on the "Wash Sale" part of filing my taxes. I had picked up 150 shares of WAMU at $3.84 each, and then as we know WAMU basically died. Right before the stock was pretty much killed, I got in a sell order and sold all 150 shares for $22.19. After that, I basically just said screw it, and used that money to pick back up 170 shares of WAMUQ at $0.14 each.
The catch that I'm on is the "substantially identical stocks" part, which tries to help avoid short selling for tax credit purposes (from how I understand it). The difference, for me, in those stocks being "substantially" identical is about $600 of refund.
Would those be considered substantially identical stocks? (In the opinion of anybody who wants to reply.) To me, the price and company situation makes me think that they aren't, but then again I could be totally naive. I'm probably going to call the IRS anyhow to get their opinion, but just wanted to see what you guys had to say.
Man, if they are substantially identical, then this damn WAMU stock is going to end up screwing me over twice. *heh*
This is the first year I've played around with stocks, and I'm a bit stuck on the "Wash Sale" part of filing my taxes. I had picked up 150 shares of WAMU at $3.84 each, and then as we know WAMU basically died. Right before the stock was pretty much killed, I got in a sell order and sold all 150 shares for $22.19. After that, I basically just said screw it, and used that money to pick back up 170 shares of WAMUQ at $0.14 each.
The catch that I'm on is the "substantially identical stocks" part, which tries to help avoid short selling for tax credit purposes (from how I understand it). The difference, for me, in those stocks being "substantially" identical is about $600 of refund.
Would those be considered substantially identical stocks? (In the opinion of anybody who wants to reply.) To me, the price and company situation makes me think that they aren't, but then again I could be totally naive. I'm probably going to call the IRS anyhow to get their opinion, but just wanted to see what you guys had to say.
Man, if they are substantially identical, then this damn WAMU stock is going to end up screwing me over twice. *heh*
tyguy20204
Member
First of all, a wash sale is just for accounting purposes. You are not actually losing any money in the process. Any net loss from your first sale gets added to the cost basis of your second sale, so you are still getting the deduction of the net loss. The only problem is if you continue to hold that second sale past tax time, then, obviously, you won't receive the deduction until next year, or whenever you sell your second holding.
And yes, what you did constitutes a wash sale. However, I'm having difficulty deciphering your numbers. Do you mean that you bought 150 shares at $23.84, before selling them at 22.19? I don't understand, maybe I'm missing something.
And yes, what you did constitutes a wash sale. However, I'm having difficulty deciphering your numbers. Do you mean that you bought 150 shares at $23.84, before selling them at 22.19? I don't understand, maybe I'm missing something.