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[tyguy20204]

Ya but how many times can we keep bouncing off of this resistance? Obviously the earnings are not there to support.

Actually, most of the outrageously priced companies have been cut down. If you take a look around the marketplace, P/E values are quite low. Of course, these are current P/E values, not future P/E values, but the current values have taken into account the last two dismal quarters. Some stocks obviously have room to fall based on declining earnings, etc. Others, I would argue, are at their floor.

I guess it depends on what you think the next year is going to bring. I'm not quite as pessimistic as some others, I guess. Solid companies with good cash flow aren't going to disappear. Solid companies will actually pick up market share in a recession.

 

[eznark]

Actually, most of the outrageously priced companies have been cut down. If you take a look around the marketplace, P/E values are quite low. Of course, these are current P/E values, not future P/E values. Some stocks obviously have room to fall based on declining earnings, etc. Others, I would argue, are at their floor.

I still think the rational, valuation based floor is closer to 8 thank 7. Until the treasury noise is cleared up though, it's tough to tell.

 

[tyguy20204]

I still think the rational, valuation based floor is closer to 8 thank 7. Until the treasury noise is cleared up though, it's tough to tell.

Yeah, I think you're absolutely right.

 

[eznark]

Ha. Drudge's front page seems to agree with us as well.

 

[tyguy20204]

Dow ends down 383.27, ending at 7887.60
S&P 500 down 42.71, ending at 827.18.

 

[Tarazet]

Absolutely infuriating. I did the right thing by getting puts right before today's market crash, but those positions collapsed even harder and faster than stocks today. I have never seen the market this ass-backwards.

 

[RSTEIN]

Absolutely infuriating. I did the right thing by getting puts right before today's market crash, but those positions collapsed even harder and faster than stocks today. I have never seen the market this ass-backwards.

What month?
What strike?

 

[Tarazet]

What month?
What strike?

BYONY Feb '09 put on BAC at $2.50
BDQOL Mar '09 put on BIDU at $60 (never going to happen, but I figured I could profit off the tremendously awful news coming out of China)

 

[toxicgonzo]

Some guy on digg joked about investing in Sonic the Hedge fund so I looked it up and well...

there is such a hedge fund. :lol


Anyways, I think the market is oversold or soon to be. Today was just a day of buy on the rumor and SELL on the news.

 

[Ovid]

Sirius XM Satellite Radio has been working with advisers to prepare for a possible bankruptcy filing in a move that could put pressure on the satellite company EchoStar, which owns a substantial amount of the company’s debt.Sirius has been working with the restructuring expert Joseph A. Bondi of Alvarez & Marsal and the bankruptcy lawyer Mark Thompson of Simpson, Thatcher & Bartlett to help prepare a Chapter 11 filing, people close to the company said. The documents and analysis are close to being completed and a filing could come within days, according to a person familiar with the matter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/technology/companies/11radio.html?hp

I guess I'm getting wiped out...oh well...I always said that I would go down with the ship. It's down 38% AH. This company filing for bankruptcy was inevitable.

 

[Ovid]

So will tomorrow be an UP day?

 

[WingM@n]

How low do you mean when you say really low? Perhaps I'm being naive but I think the lowest we will possibly see is 7500. I think at worst we touch those Nov. lows and bounce back up again.

That's not to say that I think we will be going much higher than the mid-to-low 8000s, I just think we'll be stuck in a holding pattern for a while.

I think the dow will slip under 7000 points at some point this year. Don't be suprised to see it even fall under 6000 points if all bailouts and resque plans have little to no impact.
But in that case we're almost certain in a system crash.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Banks will not start lending again because the economy is shit anyway, so why would they, even with influx of money from the government. If they are forced to lend anyway, there will be no way to make good loans that are likely to be paid back, so we'll end up with financial institutions on the verge of collapse again as soon as the economy gets shaken again by anything from some hurricanes to some potential conflict somewhere or whatever else.

The only way for banks to start lending again (and making good less risky loans) is for the government to directly prop up the economy in a permanent way and reduce people's cost of life any way they can (energy, health care, etc.). Then we would have a more stable economy and hence loans could be made.

The idea of recapitalizing banks is an idea started that was started by crooks and people who don't get it.

This mess will only be over when we accept that the economy is trying to rebalance itself and that means deflation, lower cost of life. The government should lower people's cost of life themselves by using the means mentioned above because as such it would be a controlled landing instead of a crash. Trying to fight the deflation off will be completely useless, it will fail.

 

[RSTEIN]

BYONY Feb '09 put on BAC at $2.50
BDQOL Mar '09 put on BIDU at $60 (never going to happen, but I figured I could profit off the tremendously awful news coming out of China)

Yeah, with expiration next week and the stock price 100% higher than the strike price, you're not going to get anywhere with that one, I'm afraid.

I always trade the strike that's in the money and always 3-4 months out. That way you don't have to worry about theta decay so much if things don't pan out as anticipated. You at least have some breathing room to reevaluate the situation.

Of course if news happens with BAC or Baidu then it's going to pay off. But with 3-4 months out you're still going to get a lot of kick if the stock goes in the anticipated direction.

 

[Ovid]

Banks will not start lending again because the economy is shit anyway, so why would they, even with influx of money from the government. If they are forced to lend anyway, there will be no way to make good loans that are likely to be paid back, so we'll end up with financial institutions on the verge of collapse again as soon as the economy gets shaken again by anything from some hurricanes to some potential conflict somewhere or whatever else.

The only way for banks to start lending again (and making good less risky loans) is for the government to directly prop up the economy in a permanent way and reduce people's cost of life any way they can (energy, health care, etc.). Then we would have a more stable economy and hence loans could be made.

The idea of recapitalizing banks is an idea started that was started by crooks and people who don't get it.

This mess will only be over when we accept that the economy is trying to rebalance itself and that means deflation, lower cost of life. The government should lower people's cost of life themselves by using the means mentioned above because as such it would be a controlled landing instead of a crash. Trying to fight the deflation off will be completely useless, it will fail.

The only permanent way that the government can prop up the economy and have banks lend again (at this moment in time) is to nationalize the banks.

 

[Ether_Snake]

The only permanent way that the government can prop up the economy and have banks lend again (at this moment in time) is to nationalize the banks.

That would be part of it, but the gov needs to directly stimulate certain sectors, especially anything related to lowering energy, healthcare, and housing costs.

I wonder what will happen when the USD goes down, if it does, and if oil prices could go up at the same time, maybe there would then be a very strong incentive to bring jobs back to the US. I think the US would be well adapted to such a reversal. China on the other hand would just see massive job losses as a result, and they would be forced to create jobs on their own this time, but with the 1.5 billion population and living conditions extremes, I think they would be likely to succumb under the weight of the task.


China's Exports Tumble 17.5%, Most in Almost 13 Years, on Global Recession

China’s money supply and loans jumped more than economists estimated in December after the government widened efforts to insulate the economy from a collapse in export demand.

M2, the broadest measure of money supply, climbed 17.8 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace in seven months, the central bank said on its Web site. New yuan loans rose 62 percent from November to 771.8 billion yuan ($115 billion).

China’s government, facing the slowest economic growth in almost two decades, has put pressure on state-owned banks to increase lending as it rolls out a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending package. Exports fell by the most since 1999 on declines in shipments to the U.S. and Europe, another government report showed today.

“Banks are responding to the policy call to support growth,” said Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “The challenge remains great but the policy response is aggressive.”

 

[Zyzyxxz]

how do I check for new IPO's?

I'm always interested in getting in on some IPO's.

 

[Tarazet]

how do I check for new IPO's?

I'm always interested in getting in on some IPO's.

There haven't been any since [stealth edit] November.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

There haven't been any since [stealth edit] November.

that would explain my lack of knowledge of any recent ones.

 

[Ether_Snake]

(NYSE:CGT - News)(Toronto:CAE.TO - News) - CAE today reported financial results for the third quarter ended December 31, 2008. Net earnings were $53.3 million ($0.21 per share) this quarter, compared to $39.5 million ($0.16 per share) in the third quarter of last year. All financial information is in Canadian dollars.

- Revenue increased 23% year over year to $424.6 million

- Earnings from continuing operations increased 33% to $53.3 million

- Positive free cash flow at $71.7 million, up $21.9 million year over year

- EPS increased from $0.16 to $0.21 year over year

Up 10%

 

[RSTEIN]

Anyone on StockTwits.com?

My Twitter thing is http://twitter.com/The_Boy_Plunger. I'll be posting my options trades there.

 

[entraik]

market will drop 1000 points by friday. Look up ReinHardt on google if you haven't.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Finally added to BHI, just cause I'm sick of watching the ticker everyday. Bought 50 shares at 34.30.

 

[Ovid]

Up 10%

Good news...but the company is not trading were I want it to. I was looking for at least the $6.20 - $6.30 range, but yesterdays decline dashed those hopes.

 

[Ether_Snake]

It was at 6.20 earlier today I think. I'm not surprised it didn't stay up 10%. Really, this stock has been under the radar for a while, +10% was surprising to me and I doubted it would last. Long term for me.

 

[gkryhewy]

market will drop 1000 points by friday. Look up ReinHardt on google if you haven't.

Is that you, WingM@n?

 

[Ether_Snake]

ATVI down 3% in AH but I'm pretty confident long term.

EDIT: Nikkei down to 7,700.

 

[RSTEIN]

I've been so busy today :lol

Bought PM, PG, SO, AVY calls. Have some AKAM puts too.

I'm still 90% in cash tho

 

[Ether_Snake]

Midway is dead

 

[RSTEIN]

I can't believe what happened at the end of the day... I had been building positions around several stocks all day (all calls, with the exception of AKAM which I bought yesterday). I started the day 90% in cash and ended up 80%. Then BAM the market takes off on the mortgage news :lol I'm not a day trader but I'll take the lucky timing.

 

[AlexMogil]

I can't believe what happened at the end of the day... I had been building positions around several stocks all day (all calls, with the exception of AKAM which I bought yesterday). I started the day 90% in cash and ended up 80%. Then BAM the market takes off on the mortgage news :lol I'm not a day trader but I'll take the lucky timing.

Did they announce that at EXACTLY 3?

 

[gkryhewy]

What mortgage news?

edit:nm.. $50B? That's a drop in the bucket.

 

[WingM@n]

So the PPT jumped in today..

Today the DOW:

Open: 7,931.97
High: 7,938.82
Low: 7,693.98


@ gkrykewy : No, there are other pessimists on GAF besides me ... :lol

 

[AlexMogil]

@ gkrykewy : No, there are other pessimists on GAF besides me ... :lol

You're just the most reliable one.

 

[Relix]

What the hell at that jump. It didn't make sense :lol Jesus, thank God for limit orders or my shorts would have given me trouble. Didn't expect that all (to be honest what happened today was what I expected to happen yesterday)

 

[Ovid]

MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(MARKET WIRE)--Feb 12, 2009 -- (NYSE:CGT - News)(Toronto:CAE.TO - News) Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will make an announcement with Christian Paradis, Minister of Public Works and Government Services at CAE. The event will take place on Friday, February 13, 2009, at 2:00 p.m. at CAE's facility, 8585 Cote-de-Liesse, Saint-Laurent.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Media-Advisory-Canadian-Prime-iw-14347692.html

What does this mean? I sold my entire position today (for profit) and was hoping to buy in again at a cheaper price. I hope this move doesn't come back to bite me in the ass.

 

[WingM@n]

You're just the most reliable one.

Thanks !

 

[Ether_Snake]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Media-Advisory-Canadian-Prime-iw-14347692.html

What does this mean? I sold my entire position today (for profit) and was hoping to buy in again at a cheaper price. I hope this move doesn't come back to bite me in the ass.

Yeah I just saw that earlier. Difficult to say really, but I'm guessing they'll announce some sort of project or partnership. That, or it's just a "Canada is great and companies like CAE are great Canadian companies, cheers!".

EDIT: Oh actually the announcement is at CAE's place, so yeah I'm thinking it will be about some partnership/project. I'd guess CAE will get some form of investment from the government to do something. Maybe the government will announce an investment in the simulation and modeling field.

 

[LJ11]

I was cleaning out my RSS feed and came across a good interview with Ray Dalio. You've heard most of it before, it's laid out in a very good way so it's still worth a read.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html

 

[Ovid]

Yeah I just saw that earlier. Difficult to say really, but I'm guessing they'll announce some sort of project or partnership. That, or it's just a "Canada is great and companies like CAE are great Canadian companies, cheers!".

EDIT: Oh actually the announcement is at CAE's place, so yeah I'm thinking it will be about some partnership/project. I'd guess CAE will get some form of investment from the government to do something. Maybe the government will announce an investment in the simulation and modeling field.

Damn it!!! I hate that I have to decide whether to buy or sell a stock before I go to work. I see this stock opening (or closing) between the price I initially was looking for in my previous post on Wednesday, between $6.20 - $6.30.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'd be careful with CGt tarius if you are going short term. I don't know what they will announce, but CGT has been a great company that hasn't been getting a lot of attention IMO. Maybe tomorrow will change that, but this stock has been a slow mover, even on good news. I don't expect a major news story that would lead to a rally. This is probably more about Harper doing a photo op and a small speech about the economy and Canadian businesses and so on, and some sort of CGT-related investment. But I would think millions of dollars of contract from India/China/Europe/US are the kind of news that make CGT move. I don't expect something big from Harper.

 

[Ovid]

I'd be careful with CGt tarius if you are going short term. I don't know what they will announce, but CGT has been a great company that hasn't been getting a lot of attention IMO. Maybe tomorrow will change that, but this stock has been a slow mover, even on good news. I don't expect a major news story that would lead to a rally. This is probably more about Harper doing a photo op and a small speech about the economy and Canadian businesses and so on, and some sort of CGT-related investment. But I would think millions of dollars of contract from India/China/Europe/US are the kind of news that make CGT move. I don't expect something big from Harper.

I highly doubt this is a photo op just based on the fact that other person who will be at CAE headquarters besides the Prime Minister will be the Minister of Public Works and Government Services. It has to be some kind of government partnership. It doesn't matter anyway, I'm on the outside looking in now.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yeah I'm sure there is some sort of investment or project but I don't expect something that would lead to a rally.

I'm thinking it's some money used to grow the simulation and modeling industry. We'll see

 

[RumblingRosco]

Thinking of averaging down on LPX, AHR, ATVI and jumping in on WMI finally. Doing more research on them, but the market is getting better and better to buy into as every day passes as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Hey why is trading not happening today on CGT? Is it halted? I see it at 0% on the NYSE and TSX.

Must have something to do with the announcement then?

And ATVI up 4.75% today.

 

[kathode]

market will drop 1000 points by friday. Look up ReinHardt on google if you haven't.

:lol

 

[gkryhewy]

market will drop 1000 points by friday. Look up ReinHardt on google if you haven't.

Poor guy. Better re-box that greasy tinfoil hat and save it for the next random conspiracy theorist doomsday.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Oh tarius you really were unlucky on that one:|

CAE awarded C$ 329.5 million contract by Government of Canada for C-130J aircrew training

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CAE-awarded-C-3295-million-iw-14358567.html

No wonder the stock wasn't trading today (I'd guess).

 

[Ovid]

Oh tarius you really were unlucky on that one:|

CAE awarded C$ 329.5 million contract by Government of Canada for C-130J aircrew training

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CAE-awarded-C-3295-million-iw-14358567.html

No wonder the stock wasn't trading today (I'd guess).

So far I am 2 for 2 in picking stocks this year. Every stock I picked and posted on this board (this year) has popped within a few weeks.

 

[gkryhewy]

I don't get it - both CAE and CGT show as being traded today on google finance, and didn't do much.