Support NeoGAF

[RSTEIN]

I phrased it badly/incorrectly. The basic issue seems to be "no one gives a shit about this stock so I can't find anyone to buy my contracts" :lol I think the real problem is I bought too far OTM (July $20 put). I can't remember my rationale for this, but that's what I got. The price has declined nearly 6% so far, but the bid has only moved up once by 5 cents, to my break even price. I'm just impatient If we have a down week, I could see some decent profit on this one.

Oh, I see. Yeah, a put at $20 won't attract a lot of interest considering it's still $7 out of the money. Plus, delta (sensitivity of option price relative to change in stock price) and gamma (how quickly the odds are changing of the option expiring ITM) are low for deep OTM options. Deep OTM puts have deltas of almost zero...

 

[Zyzyxxz]

AMD still rising.

For now, do you think Q1 results are gonna be good? Personally I think they will more likely post a red number due to restructuring costs.

 

[kathode]

Oh, I see. Yeah, a put at $20 won't attract a lot of interest considering it's still $7 out of the money. Plus, delta (sensitivity of option price relative to change in stock price) and gamma (how quickly the odds are changing of the option expiring ITM) are low for deep OTM options. Deep OTM puts have deltas of almost zero...

Meh, I got impatient, and clocked out for a 3% gain (basically $30 after commissions, haha). Lesson learned, on to the next thing.

 

[RSTEIN]

Meh, I got impatient, and clocked out for a 3% gain (basically $30 after commissions, haha). Lesson learned, on to the next thing.

I think you did the right thing. The contract had a lot of downside and too little upside. Even if TXI goes down another 6% the upside is limited. If the market continues to rally then you're looking at a lot of downside.

 

[kathode]

I think you did the right thing. The contract had a lot of downside and too little upside. Even if TXI goes down another 6% the upside is limited. If the market continues to rally then you're looking at a lot of downside.

Yeah I didn't want to take the risk that we have some surprising good news and then I'm waiting forever to get back to breakeven. Also I'm out of town tomorrow during the trading hours so I won't be able to respond if anything changes quickly.

 

[Ovid]

JAVA decline not as bad as I initially thought it would be. I guess because of this article:

Cisco Will Be ‘Active’ With Acquisitions, Hooper Says

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc. is ready to pick up the pace of mergers and acquisitions over the next year after the valuations of technology companies slumped, said Ned Hooper, the company’s top dealmaker.

“We will be active -- not hope to be -- will be,” Hooper, Cisco’s senior vice president of corporate business development, said in an interview. “We continue to use M&A as a key part of our growth strategy. The downturn for us is a big positive.”

Few Silicon Valley companies have made more acquisitions than Cisco, the world’s largest maker of networking equipment. The company has bought about 130 businesses in its 25-year history, using them to enter new markets, such as cable set-top boxes and wireless routers for the home. Cisco bought 11 firms in 2007 and five in 2008.

“The pace has slowed a bit as we make sure we do the right deals,” Hooper said. “We expect to be active over the next 12 months.”

Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said in February that he plans to use Cisco’s $29.5 billion in cash to make purchases. Last month, Cisco bought Pure Digital Technologies Inc., the maker of the Flip Video camcorder, for $590 million in stock.

“Bigger companies are saying these are times you gain market share and consolidate your position,” said Sarah Friar, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in San Francisco. “It’s the perfect time to sidestep competitors that don’t have the size to make these moves.”

Go Slow

International Business Machines Corp., the world’s largest computer-services company, was in discussions last week to buy Sun Microsystems Inc. for $9 to $10 a share. The talks fell apart over the weekend because Sun officials said the price was too low, a person familiar with the matter said.

The boards of most companies are telling their merger-and- acquisition teams to go slow, said Pete Bodine, managing director of Allegis Capital, a Palo Alto, California-based venture-capital firm. Suitors are waiting for prices to drop further, while some acquisition targets are holding out for the kind of prices they used to command.

“There’s no force compelling anyone to get into the checkout line,” Bodine said. “Everyone is just pushing the empty cart up and down the aisle.”

Acquisitions of technology companies in the U.S. fell 82 percent to $2.2 billion in the first quarter of 2009 from a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The number of purchases announced fell to 206 from 337.

BMC, NetApp

Chambers has said he wants to acquire companies with products that help people work together, as well as businesses in digital video and so-called virtualization -- software that helps manage computer servers. Cisco, based in San Jose, California, is also pushing further into systems for data centers, the vast rooms of computers that store company files and information.

That focus may make BMC Software Inc., a Houston-based enterprise-software maker, an acquisition target for Cisco, UBS AG analysts wrote in a March 23 note. NetApp Inc., a maker storage computers, may also be a takeover candidate, UBS said.

Kristin Carvell, a Cisco spokeswoman, said the company doesn’t comment on rumor or speculation about acquisitions or investments. BMC Software also doesn’t comment on rumor or speculation, said Mark Stouse, a spokesman. NetApp CEO Daniel Warmenhoven said in an interview last month that he wants NetApp to remain a stand-alone company.

Wait and See

Cisco fell 91 cents to $17.25 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading at 9:59 a.m. New York time. The shares had gained 11 percent this year before today.

Oracle, the world’s second-largest software company, has spent more than $34.5 billion in a buying spree that began in 2005. Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison told analysts in December that he’s taking a wait-and-see approach to acquisitions. The company could make a large purchase if the price is right, he said.

Oracle had $11.3 billion of cash and marketable securities at the end of February. Karen Tillman, an Oracle spokeswoman, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

For now, some buyers and sellers are at an impasse that’s likely to last until the second half of the year, said John DiFucci, an analyst with JP Morgan Securities Inc. in New York.

Buyers can afford to wait longer than sellers, said Enrique Salem, chief executive officer of Symantec Corp., the world’s biggest maker of security software. The company has acquired at least 24 businesses over the past five years.

“We can afford to be patient,” Salem said. “It’s a buyer’s market.”

A 20 percent drop still hurts though.

 

[kathode]

Man, sold those puts at exactly the right time. TXI crept right back up to yesterday's close.

 

[Ether_Snake]

For now, do you think Q1 results are gonna be good? Personally I think they will more likely post a red number due to restructuring costs.

I really have no idea. But I really feel like Intel is 100% certain their tech will be in next-gen consoles already, I wonder why they would be so sure of that if AMD is still in the picture. I feel like AMD will be bought out eventually, even if some say it wouldn't pass due to monopoly laws.

Defense stocks went up today (lots of 8%+) even with the F-22 cuts.

 

[Ovid]

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bond investors are earning more than ever with Treasury Inflation Protected Securities as central bankers around the world set the stage for a rise in consumer prices by deploying unprecedented amounts of money to battle the global recession.

In March, TIPS earned 6.1 percent, the best returns since the Treasury started selling the securities in 1997, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. Worldwide, inflation- protected bonds had the second best month in at least a decade, rising 4.3 percent including reinvested interest, the data show.

At BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and Pictet & Cie Banquiers, concerns are growing that policy makers will struggle to control inflation once economies start to recover. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank have increased money supply by an average 9.2 percent in the past year, or the equivalent of $2 trillion, to $24 trillion, according to the broadest measure each uses.

In the U.S., the consumer price index “could go back to 4 percent or even higher,” said Brian Weinstein, who oversees $9 billion in inflation bonds at New York-based BlackRock, the largest publicly traded U.S. fund manager. At the least, “the TIPS market is showing that we’re going back to trend inflation,” he said.

Prices in the U.S. rose 0.1 percent last year, the slowest pace since 1954. The CPI will fall 0.7 percent in 2009, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 52 economists.

Global Contraction

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts the top 30 industrialized nations’ economies will contract 4.3 percent this year, the most in more than a half century. The median of 55 predictions in a Bloomberg survey shows the U.S. shrinking 2.5 percent, after declining 6.3 percent in 2008, the worst performance since 1982.

Governments and central banks in 19 of the largest developed countries are spending 43 percent of their average gross domestic product to end the worst crisis since the Great Depression, adjusting for cost-of-living variances, the International Monetary Fund said March 6. Monetary authorities in the U.S., U.K. and Japan have cut interest rates to near zero to revive their economies.

Fed Plans

Investors flocked to TIPS after March 18, when the Fed announced its latest attempt to boost the U.S. economy, including plans to buy up to $300 billion in Treasuries and TIPS and $850 billion in mortgage-related debt.

That money increased the amount the U.S. has spent, lent or committed to address the economic crisis to as much as $12.8 trillion, 90 percent of last year’s GDP. The money includes President Barack Obama’s $787 billion stimulus plan, which he signed into law on Feb. 17.

TIPS had lost 0.33 percent from the start of the year to the day before the Fed announcement. Since March 17, they have returned 3.3 percent, the Merrill index shows.

Even before the latest Fed announcement, investors were predicting inflation. Warren Buffett, the billionaire chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said March 12 that stimulus efforts “will probably cause a lot more inflation.” Chris Caltagirone and Bob Greer of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco said in a March 10 report that “inflation will rise.”

Price measures are starting to increase as investors bet government efforts will gain traction.

Rising Commodities

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities rose in the first quarter for the first time since June. Crude oil has increased 65 percent to $53.33 a barrel from its low of $32.40 on Dec. 19. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index projects an inflation rate of 2 percent over the next 12 months and 2.6 percent over the next five years, according to the survey, released March 27.

The Fed’s plan to buy bonds “lays the groundwork for a recovery laced with inflation,” said Jim Caron, the global head of U.S. interest-rate strategy at Morgan Stanley in New York, in an April 3 note. “That could be hard to control.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=atbwl_TVWTI0&refer=home

 

[Zyzyxxz]

I really have no idea. But I really feel like Intel is 100% certain their tech will be in next-gen consoles already, I wonder why they would be so sure of that if AMD is still in the picture. I feel like AMD will be bought out eventually, even if some say it wouldn't pass due to monopoly laws.

Intel has a very strong prescence in the CPU market no doubt but because of the recession sales could be better right now.

One thing is certain, videogames so far are recession proof and with so many consoles sold in total so far it would be very lucrative for them to become a supplier of CPUs for console makers.

IMO they should be looking to get into this venture with a 100% mindset because they will try to form a good relationship with the big 3 for sure. There is no doubt they want in on this share of the market. I'm guessing they want to undercut IBM with cheaper, more efficient, and competitive performing processors which should have the big 3 listening as hardware costs are always on the minds of the consolemakers.

Either way I'm waiting for Q1 results before I make any big moves. Hopefully Intel waits until then to announce anything as well.

 

[Ovid]

Wow, Zecco.com has Forex trading now. Anyone trade currencies?

 

[Ether_Snake]

Intel has a very strong prescence in the CPU market no doubt but because of the recession sales could be better right now.

One thing is certain, videogames so far are recession proof and with so many consoles sold in total so far it would be very lucrative for them to become a supplier of CPUs for console makers.

IMO they should be looking to get into this venture with a 100% mindset because they will try to form a good relationship with the big 3 for sure. There is no doubt they want in on this share of the market. I'm guessing they want to undercut IBM with cheaper, more efficient, and competitive performing processors which should have the big 3 listening as hardware costs are always on the minds of the consolemakers.

Either way I'm waiting for Q1 results before I make any big moves. Hopefully Intel waits until then to announce anything as well.

The thing is, they acquired Offset Software (makers of Project Offset) and their editor, and now Offset is making the game exclusively for Larrabee for Intel. I feel like if Intel had to convince anyone first, it would be hardware makers. Yet they are making an engine/editor, something hardware makers really don't care about. And quite frankly the idea that the hardware makers would opt for Intel tech because of an engine is ridiculous, especially considering that a lot of big third parties are no longer interested in using non-proprietary engines. So why is Intel putting such emphasis on making Project Offset a showcase for Larrabee, if Larrabee doesn't end up in the consoles?

And like I said before, I know that at least four games are being made or ported to Larrabee right now, plus PO specifically made for it. Yet I heard nothing being made for an equivalent from Nvidia or AMD. What gives?

So to me it is pretty clear that Intel is already highly confident their tech will be in at least one next-gen console, and they are now focusing on striking first before Epic has the chance by providing an engine that will at least be used initially by anyone looking into making a game ready for next-gen console launch, or close enough. They wouldn't aim to get into the engine business if they weren't so sure of themselves when Offset is pretty much being developed specifically for Larrabee.

That's my guess anyway.

Tough call either way, if I had the money I'd buy shares of all three.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Hmm good point. It's pretty interesting move for Intel either way and maybe they see a significant change in the game design process that makes their engine/editor competitive/lucrative to developers.

It's all speculation from me at this point and I'll leave it at that. Either way I'll watch AMD and swoop when the time is right.

 

[Ether_Snake]

But actually it's not even their engine. Offset Software was making Project Offset and their own editor to make a game they would eventually release with a publisher, and suddenly Intel bought them and their editor and they've been working on it since but reoriented the editor to Larrabee development. So it's not like this was made from the ground up for Larrabee. It's more like Intel decided, for some reason, that it needed a game to showcase Larrabee (to who? hardware makers? they won't chose Larrabee because of a game), and more probably to have an engine on their hands to offer, day one.

So it looks to me like Intel is trying to convince publishers/devs about Larrabee, especially considering they got some games coming for it now. The PC gaming business is not very good, so to me it's basically Intel saying "pick our engine for the games you'll make for your consoles", but why, if the consoles didn't use Larrabee?

Or, whatever the competition might managed to get into consoles is certain to be very-Larrabee-like, and in that case they would at least be in the engine business. But that sounds like more a stretch to me. It's not a huge business, and Epic makes money making an engine in part because they basically make a game for high sales at the same time.

Intel themselves said they don't care if Project Offset makes a profit or not (pretty much a direct quote from the GDC), they said it was outside the bounds of developing the game in a profitable manner, basically "we'll spend the money we need to spend to use PO as a leverage to convince people of what we're proposing, even if it means developing it in a way that won't allow it to sell millions".

 

[RSTEIN]

Well, almost ready to sell most of my puts. Today I bought long BAX, WMT, BNI. Small starting positions that I will add to if they continue to respond to the trend.

 

[Ether_Snake]

More reasons to think I might be right about Intel: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=357753

 

[Tarazet]

The Fed extended the close of today's treasury auction, I thought it was gonna be done and dusted 2 hours ago but now it's closing with the market. I bet that has something to do with the market jitters, the last treasury auction was pretty weak too.

Edit: I'm not going to get anything out of this auction unless I put another $100 into the account.. I'm still waiting on an ACAT transfer so I don't have all my money available yet. I should just cancel it and look for something else. Maybe shorter duration TIPS which have more reasonable prices.

 

[Tarazet]

I bought bonds backed by CIT. It's a floating interest rate so I'm not sure what the coupon will be, but it matures in June of this year and I bought it at a 2.25% discount to par, so if I annualized the return, it would be around 15-20%. If I can do something like that every couple of months then I'll be beating the stock market's pants off long-term.

I have to be really careful though, I've already been burned by a bond that I bought when it was worthless. It proceeded to become even more worthless and I had to sell it at a loss. CIT's balance sheet isn't as scary as most of the banks though. They actually increased their equity holdings in 2008, so I think they're a low risk.

 

[gkryhewy]

Thinking about getting into SRS (short real estate), but it appears to already be up significantly today. Been beaten down because of irrational response to recent "positive" housing data.

 

[Ovid]

Thinking about getting into SRS (short real estate), but it appears to already be up significantly today. Been beaten down because of irrational response to recent "positive" housing data.

April 05, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: SU , C , K

If you haven’t been following UltraSuck, all I did is short all of the ultra ETF’s (short and long) in equal proportion.

You can see that profile here:
http://caps.fool.com/player/ultrasuck.aspx

I made sure I only red thumbed ultra shorts that had corresponding ultra longs that I could also red thumb.

Just short of 3 months and the portfolio is already at 1074 points, 71% accuracy and has an average pick score of +10.75.

Not too bad on a portfolio that is supposed to be “market neutral”.

I said in my post on March 1st that:
“If the S&P overtakes the level it was at on January 20th 2009, Ultrasuck will surely be in the 99th percentile as this same phenomenon will work in reverse (in favor of Ultrasuck).”

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=153985&......

Quite a few folks doubted that this would be true but as of the close on Friday we are back to the level of January 20th (842) and as you can see it has worked EXACTLY as expected.

The reason I am posting this now is I am starting to get bearish on the stock market again at these levels and I have been selling longs over the last week, trying to book all the profits I can before we roll back over.

I wanted to point out on how well this ETF decay experiment is working before the S&P gets back below today’s level and makes it LOOK LIKE it is underperforming again because of the way that CAPS scores.

Hopefully the UltraSuck portfolio has proven to you what a TERRIBLE investment these Ultra ETF’s (both long and short) really are… I am sure most of you already knew this but UltraSuck should really hammer home the fact that these are DAY TRADING VEHICLES that should not be held for more than a week or two, tops!

These ETF's are destroying more wealth than Jim Cramer and Abby Joseph Cohen combined!

PS: It is going to be funny to me when both FAZ and FAS are trading for less than $5 at the same time. Part of me wishes I would have only used the triple ultra’s as these guys are all heading to zero at a more amazing rate than the double ultra's are...

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=176154&t=01001808419327792238

 

[Tarazet]

April 05, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: SU , C , K

If you haven’t been following UltraSuck, all I did is short all of the ultra ETF’s (short and long) in equal proportion.

Holy shit, that's a brilliant idea. Leveraged ETF's are the worst idea ever, the idea of shorting them all is a masterstroke.

 

[Ovid]

NEW YORK -- Analysts Wednesday lowered profit estimates on several banks, citing commercial real-estate woes and continued worry about write-downs.

Rochdale Securities analyst Richard Bove cut first-quarter estimates on Morgan Stanley to a profit of 78 cents from $1.63 as a result of commercial real estate woes in the U.S. and overseas. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate Morgan Stanley will report flat earnings for the first quarter.

Some analysts believe that real-estate investment write-downs and structured debt losses could hurt Morgan Stanley's earnings, but the bank will likely turn a profit from its fixed-income, commodities and currencies group.

Morgan Stanley reports first-quarter earnings the week of April 20.

Morgan Stanley is on the "right track to establish itself as a continuously profitable entity," according to Mr. Bove's research note Wednesday. However, "commercial real estate woes in the U.S. and overseas may result in first-quarter write-downs that may harm near-term profits."

Although Morgan Stanley's traditional businesses such as investment banking, trading and global financial services are appealing, Mr. Bove said, he isn't "enthralled by the company's increased move into" retail.

Meanwhile, Oppenheimer analysts cut their estimates for Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, saying the write-downs, charge-offs and loan-loss provisions are likely to be high.

Bank of America Corp. may be facing large write-downs, the analysts noted, and could be forced to raise as much as $37 billion in fresh capital and issue 4.9 billion shares. Large-capitalization commercial banks may be able to post "something of a recovery," however, in the first quarter, they noted.

"The big event of 2009, in our minds, is likely to be the ongoing erosion of loan-loss portfolios" they noted. "On this score, we expect the deterioration to continue in full swing."

To react to those losses, Bank of America will likely look to take its tangible-common-equity compared to risk-weighted-assets ratio, a common measure of capital adequacy, to 6%.

"That would require about $37 billion of fresh equity capital and would require issuance of 4.9 [billion] new shares," said the analysts, who kept the investment rating at perform.

Bank of America wasn't immediately available to comment.

That is exactly what I was thinking. I really think BAC will have a "good" quarter.

 

[Meier]

Hopefully C does not pull back that much from its pre-open high... I want to unload this turd. :|

Already back under $3 right after the open... bleh.

 

[mckmas8808]

Trade deficit down in Feburary. This is good news.

The weak U.S. economy has dried up demand for imported goods of all sorts, from autos to zinc. Imports are down 29% in the past year.
However, exports rose in February for the first time since July, suggesting that the first-quarter gross domestic product won't be as bad as many feared.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={3FD5AFAF-4BFC-4EB9-9CD2-F7FF11C5E271}

 

[Tarazet]

Market closes at 2 pm today and is closed tomorrow for Good Friday, by the way.

 

[Ovid]

What the hell, BAC is trading at $9.00???? What happened?

 

[Ovid]

Wait...this can't be good, right?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=STEM

Why are there so many insiders selling?

 

[Justin Bailey]

What the hell, BAC is trading at $9.00???? What happened?

Wells Fargo announced blistering earnings for 1Q, all banks are skyrocketing today.

 

[mckmas8808]

Wells Fargo announced blistering earnings for 1Q, all banks are skyrocketing today.

Looks like stocks had their 5th week in a row with positive weekly returns. Things are getting good.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Wells Fargo announced blistering earnings for 1Q, all banks are skyrocketing today.

And thanks to WFC 31%+ rally, I am now only down ~90% on that investment! Fuck me for buying Wachovia when I did. :lol

Financials up 7.6% today overall haha. Insanity. Even my little BOH got pulled up with it all. I wonder if we'll see a small sell off tomorrow.

 

[Gallbaro]

hai guys.


I am starting to think this is gonna be one hell of a Bear Market Rally, 06-08 big, but god damn do I think this is bad for the economy, government sanctioned cooking of books, as well as printing of money.

Maybe it is time to buy some GE Bank.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Woot, my portfolio isup 10% today thanks to Ford!

I'm waiting for Q1 reports still before I make any big moves.

 

[Ovid]

hai guys.


I am starting to think this is gonna be one hell of a Bear Market Rally, 06-08 big, but god damn do I think this is bad for the economy, government sanctioned cooking of books, as well as printing of money.

Maybe it is time to buy some GE Bank.

I think my limit orders are set too low. None my the orders have executed. I thought this rally would end by now. Banks are not suppose to be posting record profits. Is this a Bear Market Rally or are we turning a corner here? I'm so confused. I don't know whether to keep my limit orders or start buying to hold.

 

[Tarazet]

I think my limit orders are set too low. None my the orders have executed. I thought this rally would end by now. Banks are not suppose to be posting record profits. Is this a Bear Market Rally or are we turning a corner here? I'm so confused. I don't know whether to keep my limit orders or start buying to hold.

I really doubt we're turning a corner. Our local news reported that 1/3 of the foreclosed houses in the Bay Area are being sat on by banks, they don't want to take losses on them yet. They're delaying the inevitable.

 

[Gallbaro]

I think my limit orders are set too low. None my the orders have executed. I thought this rally would end by now. Banks are not suppose to be posting record profits. Is this a Bear Market Rally or are we turning a corner here? I'm so confused. I don't know whether to keep my limit orders or start buying to hold.

Same boat, but i have no doubt this is a bear market rally, just how long is the only question.

 

[Ovid]

So should I do keep my limit orders set at the March low?

 

[Gallbaro]

So should I do keep my limit orders set at the March low?

They could be triggered in 2011...

 

[Ovid]

So your saying that those lows will not happen again? It happened back in November.

 

[mckmas8808]

Same boat, but i have no doubt this is a bear market rally, just how long is the only question.

Doubt it. I think we are turning the corner. But I guess we will find out by the end of this month.

Lots of signs say we are turning the corner.

 

[Gallbaro]

So your saying that those lows will not happen again? It happen back in November.

No, I am saying this could be one hell of a bear market rally. Last time so much free money was given out we had the 2006-2008 jump, even though that has now been proven, since we destroyed all of those gains a bear market rally, just a really long one.

 

[gkryhewy]

Doubt it. I think we are turning the corner. But I guess we will find out by the end of this month.

Lots of signs say we are turning the corner.

:lol :lol I don't necessarily disagree with you, but your timetables on these things are batshit. Stop being so impatient.

No, I am saying this could be one hell of a bear market rally. Last time so much free money was given out we had the 2006-2008 jump, even though that has now been proven, since we destroyed all of those gains a bear market rally, just a really long one.

But by 2005 we had already stabilized back at the 2000 highs, making 2006-08 a genuine bull market (even if completely illusory).

 

[mckmas8808]

:lol :lol I don't necessarily disagree with you, but your timetables on these things are batshit. Stop being so impatient.

Actually I'm not. I'm guessing around September-November of this year we will start seeing positive GDP growth. I've been thinking that for the past few months.

And within that last post of mine I even said that we will see what the deal is by the end of this year.

But you and I both know that the underpinning are there to show that we are turning a corner.

 

[gkryhewy]

Actually I'm not. I'm guessing around September-November of this year we will start seeing positive GDP growth. I've been thinking that for the past few months.

And within that last post of mine I even said that we will see what the deal is by the end of this year.

But you and I both know that the underpinning are there to show that we are turning a corner.

Panic is over. This is a good thing. But to say that we'll know at the end of APRIL whether we've "turned a corner" is crazy.

 

[mckmas8808]

Panic is over. This is a good thing. But to say that we'll know at the end of APRIL whether we've "turned a corner" is crazy.

I don't think so. What do you think will happen if most banks beat expectations in the same manner that Wells Fargo did?

 

[Barrett2]

Wow, I just noticed my GME stock is bouncing this week. Thank god; thats the first good news my now garbage portfolio has had in quite a while.

 

[gkryhewy]

I don't think so. What do you think will happen if most banks beat expectations in the same manner that Wells Fargo did?

To an extent, that's now priced in. What will happen after earnings when the black box over the Stress Test results comes off and it's revealed that certain banks are vulnerable, particularly under the "more adverse" scenario which is now widely acknowledged as the true baseline?

Lots of things can still happen, and they'll take awhile to settle out. Also, I would direct you to Paul Krugman, who's more eloquent than I am: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/the-bounce-and-the-revision-thing/

 

[mckmas8808]

To an extent, that's now priced in. What will happen after earnings when the black box over the Stress Test results comes off and it's revealed that certain banks are vulnerable, particularly under the "more adverse" scenario which is now widely acknowledged as the true baseline?

Lots of things can still happen, and they'll take awhile to settle out. Also, I would direct you to Paul Krugman, who's more eloquent than I am: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/the-bounce-and-the-revision-thing/

And the stress test will be released this month. That's also what I was talking about. After Q1 earnings and the stress test results, we should know alot of more the "market" than we do now.

I'm wondering if the market will be able to shurg off slightly negative stress test results? I wonder if they are priced in already or are people expecting the results to be better than expected.

 

[Ovid]

Great interview with William K. Black (Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri – Kansas City ) on the the financial industry.

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html

I love his comparison between the former CEO of GM and the current CEO's in the banking sector.

 

[Ovid]

This post is from March 17th

Don't dismiss the bank stock rally over the past week, as the prospects for relatively strong first-quarter earnings results from Citigroup (C Quote), JPMorgan Chase (JPM Quote) and Bank of America (BAC Quote) are good.

CEOs at each of the three banks last week expressed optimism about their companies and the economy, boosting financial sector stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While there's always the risk of an idiotic statement from political quarters crushing the market on any given day, there are several short-term factors working in the favor of these banks.

A quick analysis of 2008 loan loss provisions by the largest U.S. bank holding companies shows that there's plenty of room for them to maneuver in their quest for improved first-quarter earnings. For Citigroup, JPMorgan and Bank of America, decisions to reduce quarterly provisions for loan loss reserves could be justified, since the companies reserved sufficiently to keep ahead of the pace of loan losses during 2008. This would boost earnings considerably.

In fact, there's potential not only for sequential improvement in quarterly earnings, but in year-over-year earnings growth, a comparison loved by investors and the business media.

Suggestions from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that mark-to-market accounting rules for banks should be reviewed also fed the market fire.

Wells Fargo (WFC Quote) is the only one of the big four national banks that has not been making happy talk of late. The company recently cut its quarterly dividend 85% to 5 cents a share, as its executives grumbled about restrictions of the government's bailout program.

Investors will need to brace for inevitable "sell the good news" reactions in late April and it's also important to remember that macroeconomic indicators may continue to slide, potentially putting all the bank stocks right back into the doldrums.

But for now, these big banks look like interesting short-term plays.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10473174/1/banks-earnings-may-surprise-in-first-quarter.html

 

[Ovid]

Wells Fargo surprised but don't expect thes same from JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup next week.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/10/wells-fargo-banking-markets-equity-financial-mortgage.html