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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

O

Ovid

Member
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Investors turned optimistic for the third time since the credit crisis started last year, gauges of sentiment among individual investors in the U.S. show, a pattern that Helmsman Global Trading says is a signal to sell.

The difference between the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index and Bear Index surged to 5.6 as of April 2. When the reading rose to 11.5 in November and 13.6 in January it coincided with the end of “bear-market rallies” of at least 21 percent by the MSCI World Index.

“What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.”

The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday.

The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists.

The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a0WhQPSrzB6M&refer=home
 
O

Ovid

Member
mckmas8808 said:
And the stress test will be released this month. That's also what I was talking about. After Q1 earnings and the stress test results, we should know alot of more the "market" than we do now.

I'm wondering if the market will be able to shurg off slightly negative stress test results? I wonder if they are priced in already or are people expecting the results to be better than expected.
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The stress test will produce negative results. Financial stocks rose 20% - 40% on Thursday. There is absolutely no way that the negative results are priced in.
 
Z

Zyzyxxz

Member
Well I was right about opening lower but all the financials are still going up. Strange, possible last week rally before Q1 results are out?
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Under normal conditions I would have more puts than I do now. There are 36 overbought companies in the SP500 right now, the highest in a long time. 84% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average. The SP500 is ~8.5% above its 50 day moving average, which has only happened during 1991, 1998/1999, and 2001.

However, the market is just incredible right now. Stocks just don't want to go down. Bank stocks are a huge wild card. I'll be increasing my positions throughout the week.
 
A

argon

Member
Time to reload on Nintendo stock.. Dirt cheap at the low 30s, with a ~5% dividend. Foreign exchange rate has become much more favorable for Japanese exporters in the past couple months, too.
 
F

Flizzzipper

Member
Oh man, I flagged Netflix stock last July at 27.31 I look today and it's 49.43 it made me physically nauseous. I can't believe I didn't pull the trigger.
 
S

sedaku

Member
Most of banking revenue are due to AIG swap payout (one time taxpayer money) and mark-to-market rule change (also, one time thing). No wonder estimate are off the mark, it's all in fantasy land now. Their revenue is 9.3$, wonder how much of that is from the 12$B AIG pay out. And AIG money is tax payer money, oh the irony.

And yet the market keep going up. If that is not due market manipulation, then investor are surely speculating on hope, kinda fitting with the new administration.

Of course GS wanna jump the gun on the report and issue equity now. Shit is gonna hit the fan in the next few months, if not weeks, and it's gonna be spectacular.
 
E

Epsilon-delta

Banned
Flizzzipper said:
Oh man, I flagged Netflix stock last July at 27.31 I look today and it's 49.43 it made me physically nauseous. I can't believe I didn't pull the trigger.
Click to expand...

Analysis paralysis, happens all the time when investing or trading.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
sedaku said:
Most of banking revenue are due to AIG swap payout (one time taxpayer money) and mark-to-market rule change (also, one time thing). No wonder estimate are off the mark, it's all in fantasy land now. Their revenue is 9.3$, wonder how much of that is from the 12$B AIG pay out. And AIG money is tax payer money, oh the irony.

And yet the market keep going up. If that is not due market manipulation, then investor are surely speculating on hope, kinda fitting with the new administration.

Of course GS wanna jump the gun on the report and issue equity now. Shit is gonna hit the fan in the next few months, if not weeks, and it's gonna be spectacular.
Click to expand...


Sounds like you want the market to fail. So you are betting on the fact that these banking companies aren't actually making real money?
 
E

Epsilon-delta

Banned
sedaku said:
Most of banking revenue are due to AIG swap payout (one time taxpayer money) and mark-to-market rule change (also, one time thing). No wonder estimate are off the mark, it's all in fantasy land now. Their revenue is 9.3$, wonder how much of that is from the 12$B AIG pay out. And AIG money is tax payer money, oh the irony.

And yet the market keep going up. If that is not due market manipulation, then investor are surely speculating on hope, kinda fitting with the new administration.

Of course GS wanna jump the gun on the report and issue equity now. Shit is gonna hit the fan in the next few months, if not weeks, and it's gonna be spectacular.
Click to expand...

You sound like a short. :lol

The AIG swap payout and mark-to-market rule change did help significantly. If it is MM, why not ride the wave on financials and take profits before the market correction?

Also on a side note, the uptick rule is coming back. The question is which option the SEC is going for.
 
Z

Zyzyxxz

Member
mckmas8808 said:
Sounds like you want the market to fail. So you are betting on the fact that these banking companies aren't actually making real money?
Click to expand...

thats what I'm betting on too. Come many of the big banks posting profits (except Wells Fargo) if they do, could be the result of some smart accounting from the use of bailout money.

I've been betting on losses for a while now.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
CGT always gets dumped at the end of the day after a rally or in AH. Always.

If I get the chance eventually I'll sell HON when I break even or so. I'm not confident in this one enough, I don't know that industry at all and conglomerates are confusing. If they get bought out that would be great, but I'm not gonna wait for that.
 
M

Meier

Member
Y2Kev said:
C smashed through 4, at 4.20 now. GO BABY GO
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I'm hoping it blasts through $5 tomorrow. Held and held and it's now paying off... shame I got in at the top prior to this recent jump.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Jesus Christ TTWO was up 12% today, and another 3% in AH.

Why? Buyout rumors? EA coming back with an offer? Nothing? Cause IMO they are better off today (portfolio-wise) than some time ago. So I wouldn't be surprised if EA came back.

EDIT: Also, EA's strategy has not been paying off. When they pulled their offer off the table, they probably though they were paying too much for too little, and that they could do well on their own with their new strategy. But after Mirror's Edge, Spore, and Dead Space sales, plus that really terrible showing of Dante's Inferno, they might be back to their "ah fuck, we have to buy the competition or we're screwed" plans. In which case, good for TTWO share holders, bad for ERTS's.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Meier said:
I'm hoping it blasts through $5 tomorrow. Held and held and it's now paying off... shame I got in at the top prior to this recent jump.
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I got in pretty much at the bottom.

I'm not sure how long I want to hold. There's going to be such a squeeze tomorrow...
 
R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
tyguy20204 said:
So how do you guys think Google did? They announce their earnings on Thursday.
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AD Revenues were probably affected, though new YouTube revenue venues could help. Who knows... I say it grew a bit. =/
 
W

Wellington

BAAAALLLINNN'
Fuuuuuck, been holding out on buying C because I wanted to see the earnings report. I wanted to take the dive when it was approx. $2.40 but didn't.

Where do you guys think earnings will fall? I have some money available, to jump in, but I don't want to burn myself. Bah!

I was going to go in on BAC, but balked yesterday morning.... :( I have the worst luck.
 
S

sangreal

Member
I got in C around 2.80. Its at 4.50 pre-market right now. I'll wait and see how it opens and probably put a stop around 4.25-4.30 to be safe

I'm only in for 1250 shares though :(

Actually, it was this post that kept me in past 3.50 :lol
Meier said:
Hopefully C does not pull back that much from its pre-open high... I want to unload this turd. :|

Already back under $3 right after the open... bleh.
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R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
sangreal said:
I got in C around 2.80. Its at 4.50 pre-market right now. I'll wait and see how it opens and probably put a stop around 4.25-4.30 to be safe

I'm only in for 1250 shares though :(

Actually, it was this post that kept me in past 3.50 :lol
Click to expand...

I still have some of my $1 shares of it. Like 350 :lol I am happy enough that I will sell some.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think I'm in until at least Monday. BAC's earnings could give it one final bump. Then I think I will be out unless this rocket keeps going. :D
 
S

sangreal

Member
Y2Kev said:
I think I'm in until at least Monday. BAC's earnings could give it one final bump. Then I think I will be out unless this rocket keeps going. :D
Click to expand...

Yup, I'm thinking the same. I learned my lesson last year about riding the hype train for too long with V. I'm out after earnings unless they blow away estimates
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Ubisoft was supposedly up 12% this morning, but I don't see it. That's what the news says anyway, and that it was back over 17 euros.

AMD up 3%, and STP up 1% or so but they have really been rallying for the past two weeks now. It nearly doubled.
 
Z

Zyzyxxz

Member
Bank stocks are holding well after yesterday's rally and with today's bad news of the commerce sector.

I got 500 shares of C just in case there is a big rally. My plan is to keep them until earnings reports. If its good I'll keep it and see how high it'll go until selloffs occur and if its drops like hell I'll buy a hell lot more to average down.

Damn I should have stuck with AIG, sold off all my shares at 1.20

Also I'd keep an eye on Ford, though I predict a loss on their balance sheets the potential for it is amazing right now.
 
W

Wellington

BAAAALLLINNN'
I'm jumping in on Alcoa whenever my money transfer goes through. Seems like construction is about to start rebounding in some sectors (here in NYC for example, the other WTC projects are finally going to get underway, MSG renovation is going to move, United Nations is a green light etc.... all projects that were on hold), industrials and construction are tied together. I'll pick some up and hold until year's end to see where I'm at.
 
L

Last Hope

Member
Bad morning for me to buy 100 (more) shares of BAC. But I am certain it will rebound eventually, probably within a week. I am just going to hold it. I figure it might go down as much as 15% but based on history and earnings, I kind of doubt it will go lower then that.

With the way banks are going, there is not a whole lot of rhyme or reason to these rallies.
 
Z

Zyzyxxz

Member
Last Hope said:
Bad morning for me to buy 100 (more) shares of BAC. But I am certain it will rebound eventually, probably within a week. I am just going to hold it. I figure it might go down as much as 15% but based on history and earnings, I kind of doubt it will go lower then that.

With the way banks are going, there is not a whole lot of rhyme or reason to these rallies.
Click to expand...

pretty much, it was strangely a strong morning for banks but the market took a turn for the worse.
 
O

Ovid

Member
Don't forget Bank of America acquired Countrywide (the largest US mortgage lender) last year. I think this company will have a good quarter but don't expect good things for the rest of the year. Remember Alt-A and Option ARM default rates will begin to accelerate starting month.

Anyways, I see a spike in bunch of stocks that I'm watching at around 10am. Does anyone know what news came out during that time?
 
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