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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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Damnit I missed my chance with TTWO, it was down 8% earlier today, now only 4:|
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
man lame even though Citi reported not so bad losses at all its getting shorted to hell and back to mid $3 range now.

Good thing I unloaded half of my shares in it the yesterday to be safe.

At least my gains in my GE shares will cover it.
 

Ether_Snake

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ATVI ended up $, ERTS down 2%, TTWO down 5%.

IMMR (haven't been keeping track of them much for a while) has gone up like 20% in two days, after Nokia confirmed plans to bring new touchscreen and Qwerty keyboard smartphones to the market later this year.

One of the first of the new Nokia smartphones will be a device that features so-called haptic or vibration technology from Immersion (IMMR Quote) that is due out this summer.

I got burned on them once, but I bought when I was green and dumb.
 

argon

Member
Barron's just came out with a very bullish article on Nintendo. Despite the stock's recent battering, I'm still a believer.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124001833826031167.html

Nintendo is cheap, especially for a company whose profits could jump 40% this year. Waning Japanese demand needs to be put in perspective.

SHARES OF NINTENDO, MAKER OF THE WII VIDEOGAME player, have been in free fall, much like a not-so-Super Mario whose leap has left him short of landing on one of the mushrooms in the Japanese company's most famous game.

Good for gaming and playing music, the handheld DSi, out this month, also lets you snap and edit pictures.

Nintendo's American depositary receipts (ticker: NTDOY), eight of which equal one Tokyo-traded share, early Friday afternoon were at 33.50 -- about 50%% below where they stood a year ago and down over 25% this year. In contrast, shares of rival game-console makers Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) have both tracked the tech market's slight 2009 gain.

The drop in Nintendo seems overdone. Says Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter: "When you look at the underlying numbers, no company globally is performing better than Nintendo." Pachter has a 12-month target of about 60 on the ADRs. Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia sees "terrific comeback potential" for the shares.

...

BUT STRONG GROWTH SHOULD RESUME in the second half. "People who buy videogames have no idea we are in recession," asserts Pachter. From October through February, U.S. videogame sales rose about 11%, in dollar terms. Nintendo wouldn't comment for this article, but at a recent convention, Reggie Fils-Aime, CEO of its U.S. unit, said: "Over that same time period, Nintendo is up over 50%. Let me put it a different way: the total industry has grown just over $1 billion during that time frame. Nintendo has grown over $3 billion. So do the math. We're accounting for more than 100% of the industry growth." The introduction of souped-up Wii controllers and several new games this summer should help sales.

Nintendo shares are down 25% since Jan. 1, but a careful look suggests that they're due for a comeback, with profits at the cash-rich company likely to be up 45% this year.

In addition, some investors are ignoring Nintendo's solid balance sheet -- it has $9.5 billion in cash and securities, versus $4.3 billion in debt -- and its annual dividend of $1.58 per ADR. And Nintendo certainly has the financial flexibility to hike the payout or buy back stock.

At $33.50, Nintendo ADRs were trading under 10 times likely 2010 earnings -- not much for an outfit whose profits should jump 45% this year. Nintendo faces challenges, but the path to success often looks more perilous than it is -- as Super Mario knows and patient U.S. investors will learn.
 

Ether_Snake

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ABX up 7%.

I think it's a relatively good buy in the low 30s. Goes up and down quickly too.
 

Ovid

Member
I said last week that I would hold my current positions until bank earnings came out. I decided to just focus on purchasing companies with solid fundamentals instead of speculative stocks (I'm tired of losing money). So I picked up CGT (added more), FDO, and INTC. My future pick ups are DELL, WAG, EMR, and HON.
 

Zhengi

Member
I think stocks are overbought right now, but then, I guess that's a little bit of bitterness in my talking when the market was at 6500 and the rally left me behind :lol

Right now, I'm regretting my decision not to sell my stocks in C last week. I was up quite a bit and now it's gone below the price I bought them at. I was hoping that Friday earnings would give it a boost and that today's BAC announcement would do the same. I guess I'll have to sit on it a bit and hope it comes back up soon.

I need to stop procrastinating and put some more money into my Roth IRA. If this market continues going down, it might be time to buy.
 
PAS is treating me very nicely today. Been holding it for a solid 5-6 months now, and I don't think I've seen green until today. :lol

Looking into electrical companies now. AEE being my main focus, though I'm really looking for ones that are leaning towards more green energy solutions, and I haven't researched enough as to how AEE is handling that.
 

sk3

Banned
I've been waiting for the market to come back down to earth. It's gained way too much way too fast this past month. I'll probably wait for this earnings week to be over and start investing more.

I'm targeting F in the low $3s and INTC @ $14. MSFT @ $17 would also be nice.
 

Tarazet

Member
Zhengi said:
I think stocks are overbought right now, but then, I guess that's a little bit of bitterness in my talking when the market was at 6500 and the rally left me behind :lol

Right now, I'm regretting my decision not to sell my stocks in C last week. I was up quite a bit and now it's gone below the price I bought them at. I was hoping that Friday earnings would give it a boost and that today's BAC announcement would do the same. I guess I'll have to sit on it a bit and hope it comes back up soon.

I need to stop procrastinating and put some more money into my Roth IRA. If this market continues going down, it might be time to buy.

I'm not waiting on the stock market.. I'm taking advantage of how much money the banks have to pay for financing by buying their bonds. Short term ones of course. A nearly guaranteed 2% return in a month and a half is A-OK with me.
 

Meier

Member
Today is an absolute bloodbath for me. S, AIG and C all down relatively big. I knew I should have unloaded C...what a turd. :(
 

Wellington

BAAAALLLINNN'
Meier said:
Today is an absolute bloodbath for me. S, AIG and C all down relatively big. I knew I should have unloaded C...what a turd. :(
Lost big on C, GE, and AA today.

I am considering jumping in on Nintendo too, which one are you guys trading? NTDOF or NTDOY? Both are below their 52 week min, and of course they have tons upon tons of money.
 

Zhengi

Member
Wellington said:
Lost big on C, GE, and AA today.

I am considering jumping in on Nintendo too, which one are you guys trading? NTDOF or NTDOY? Both are below their 52 week min, and of course they have tons upon tons of money.

What's the difference between NTDOF and NTDOY? I just wish that they were Pink Sheets, but I might dive in and grab some.
 

kathode

Member
lawblob said:
NTDOY could be interesting. Someone make the argument for them, are they expected to outperform on earnings?

I would never bet on Nintendo earnings. They ALWAYS give poor guidance which always deflates the price. I had a post summarizing their earnings from the past year a while back. Let me see if I can find it.

Edit: Found it. I was holding NTDOY for a while. Here's a sample from three of their earnings reports. These were from 2008. I didn't pay attention to their 4Q earnings, maybe that was different?

After January earnings: Trading was halted on Nintendo stock today due to a 5,000 (9.62%) yen decline. This after a blowout quarter where they raised their sales forecast. It's worries over the yen and some profit-taking. You'll notice in their report they upped their sales guidance but left their profit guidance alone.

After April earnings: Well once again Nintendo makes money hand over fist, but who cares right? Because all that really matters is that their forecast is off by about 3% from analyst expectations, so the stock falls. Sometimes I hate investors.

After July earnings: Yup, NTDOY is the same story as always - major profits, cautious outlook, everyone bails. Glad I sold out of there a while back.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
I would never bet on Nintendo earnings. They ALWAYS give poor guidance which always deflates the price. I had a post summarizing their earnings from the past year a while back. Let me see if I can find it.

Oooh look its kathode... Mr. "hay guyz I'm going away for a week don't worry nothing big is happening"
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
Oooh look its kathode... Mr. "hay guyz I'm going away for a week don't worry nothing big is happening"

lolz. You would laugh if you actually knew what my trip was about. Not today though! :D
 

Ovid

Member
sonarrat said:
I'm not waiting on the stock market.. I'm taking advantage of how much money the banks have to pay for financing by buying their bonds. Short term ones of course. A nearly guaranteed 2% return in a month and a half is A-OK with me.
On average, how long till maturity on your bonds?
 

Ether_Snake

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kathode: I think this is usually how it goes with "popular" stocks no? Everyone's in waiting for earnings, and when they kick in big stockholders sell quickly, and then every average joe that bought himself some of those shares panics and sells as well.

EDIT: About my purchase of TTWO today, I did so without a lot of confidence. I think Borderlands' visual style won't draw in a lot of hard core FPS gamers, although gameplay-wise it sounds good. If they have something good, maybe a good online mode and some good reviews it could do alright. But I don't expect much from it. Bioshock 2 should do alright, but again I recall no online mode being announced (is there?), and that would hurt sales. So really, I'm just buying now because eventually they'll be bought out no doubt, and it's on that train of thought that I made good money last time when EA made an offer. I'm thinking that whenever another offer comes around, it will be at least $8.84 a share, so I don't see myself losing anytime soon;)
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
lol, I love headlines.

"IBM revenue misses estimates; stock tumbles after hours"

What percentage drop comes to mind when you hear the word "tumble?"



The stock is currently down
1.6%
.
 

Ether_Snake

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Earlier on it was "IBM profits beats street", omitting anything else. They wait to see if it goes red or green before adding to the headline:p
 
I'm getting pretty heavy into healthcare/biotech right now, because I think certain stocks in the field have become quite undervalued.

The healthcare/biotech sector was trading very high through January and February, only to crash with all the other stocks in March. Now they are being overlooked, possibly because they are seen as a defensive play in a time that we are seeing a bullish mentality.

Also, Obama's decreased budget for Medicare and Medicaid caused a drastic selling in the healthcare facility sector. I believe that certain stocks have become over-sold as a result.

I have recently bought shares in:

Cephalon (CEPH). Cephalon, Inc. is an international biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of products in three therapeutic areas: central nervous system (CNS), pain and oncology.

This is a low risk investment, if you check out their earnings and balance sheet, this is a company that always performs. Trading at the 79 level in February, it is now trading at 66.29. I believe Cephalon can and will return to its former glory.

Sun Healthcare (SUNH) Sun Healthcare Group, Inc. provides nursing, rehabilitative and related specialty healthcare services principally to the senior population in the United States

Sun Healthcare is trading at 8.06, about 35% off of its high back in February. The drop in the stock's price as far as I can tell is directly due to Obama's budget. However, after reading last quarter's earnings report, and seeing the CEO's comments, I am confident that Sun Healthcare will largely be unaffected by these changes, especially in the near term. In fact, the money they receive from Medicare should actually increase in 2009, according to one analyst. I expect solid earnings from them on April 29th, and a good bump as well.

Genzyme This is another biotech company that I see as being undervalued. It is currently trading at a projected forward p/e of 10, which is ridiculous considering the amount of growth potential in this stock. Yes, there is definitely a risk that they will lower their guidance when they report earnings on Wednesday, but I feel comfortable that this is a good long-range buy.
 

Ether_Snake

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I forgot about ADSK, damnit. My next buy. I hope it's under 20 by then.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Ether_Snake said:
Earlier on it was "IBM profits beats street", omitting anything else. They wait to see if it goes red or green before adding to the headline:p

I know but "tumble" in my mind HAS to start with at least neg 5%. Why the hell would you describe a ~1.5% move as a tumble?
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
Wow good thing I reduced my shares in C before the big drop today.

Maybe its time I buy back in some more.

Anwyay I'm hopnig LVLT will provide some short term gains for me soon.

And dammit, I knew I should have gotten in with Sun @ ~$6. Would have beena nice 33% gain.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Here's a little update:

four-bears.gif
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
Man I can't believe its already been almost 9 years since that tech crash. I would have loved to have jumped on many of those tech stocks before the ride up and sell before they plunged.
 

Ether_Snake

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TTWO earnings on the 23rd.

I doubt the shares will go up on that, but like I said, eventually they'll get bought out:p
 

kathode

Member
Ether_Snake said:
kathode: I think this is usually how it goes with "popular" stocks no? Everyone's in waiting for earnings, and when they kick in big stockholders sell quickly, and then every average joe that bought himself some of those shares panics and sells as well.

This could be true (I honestly don't know), but Nintendo is one that always inspires interest around here and particularly around earnings time. I checked and the stock took a ~10% haircut when their January earnings came out as well. I mean sure it could still go up this time but IMO, I would stay away. (NTDOY doing great today though!)

I opened a fairly significant position in AXP calls that are doing well today. Still holding out for my 20%. Edit: Spoke too soon :\
 

Tarazet

Member
tarius1210 said:
On average, how long till maturity on your bonds?

The average at this point is about 3 months. If you can stack a bunch of small returns they kick the crap out of any savings account on the planet. Ultimately I'll want to get bonds for longer terms because otherwise you get murdered by transaction fees.
 

gkryhewy

Member
kathode said:
This could be true (I honestly don't know), but Nintendo is one that always inspires interest around here and particularly around earnings time. I checked and the stock took a ~10% haircut when their January earnings came out as well. I mean sure it could still go up this time but IMO, I would stay away. (NTDOY doing great today though!)

I opened a fairly significant position in AXP calls that are doing well today. Still holding out for my 20%. Edit: Spoke too soon :\

My expectation on NTDOY is that it'll rise somewhat significantly in association with earnings. It usually rises before earnings and then gives back most of those gains on earnings. In this case, it might be stagnant before earnings, and then rise afterward.

Honestly the stock seems nonsensically volatile when the minimum nikkei buy-in is 100 japanese shares of 7974, or 800 shares of NTDOY (roughly $26,000).
 

Ovid

Member
sonarrat said:
The average at this point is about 3 months. If you can stack a bunch of small returns they kick the crap out of any savings account on the planet. Ultimately I'll want to get bonds for longer terms because otherwise you get murdered by transaction fees.
True. The highest I'm getting from my savings account is 2.01% (that's only because my bank offers that to depositors with over $10,000 in their account). Bastards. I remember getting 4.50% a year ago at this time from ING Direct. Boy, would I love to have that APY today.
 

LM4sure

Banned
tarius1210 said:
True. The highest I'm getting from my savings account is 2.01% (that's only because my bank offers that to depositors with over $10,000 in their account). Bastards. I remember getting 4.50% a year ago at this time from ING Direct. Boy, would I love to have that APY today.

I have a CD at a little under 5% that is maturing soon. The new rate is under 2%. Not sure what I'll do with that money. Probably dump it into the market. I've already maxed out my IRA for the year.
 

Ether_Snake

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ERTS finished up 8%, on no apparent news. TTWO up 5%. But like I said with TTWO I'm sleeping on it till the company gets another offer.

If I get my planned raise soon I'm gonna raise my 401k contributions, I contribute a measly 100$ a month :lol
 

kathode

Member
Sold out of AXP calls for 26% gain. Was thinking about holding out more but it was a fairly big position for me, so I'm happy with my gains.
 

RiZ III

Member
Bought C at 2.72 and sold it at 3.80 last week. Made a decent profit. Now I'm back in, and also bought some BAC at 8.13. Will probably sell when it goes a bit above 10 and sell C when it gets to 4.
 

Ether_Snake

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ADSK up 7%, ERTS up anotehr 4.5% after yesterday's 8%. AMD down 2% after posting a Q1 loss.

I wanted to get in ADSK, I keep missing my chances on this one:|
 

Tarazet

Member
tarius1210 said:
True. The highest I'm getting from my savings account is 2.01% (that's only because my bank offers that to depositors with over $10,000 in their account). Bastards. I remember getting 4.50% a year ago at this time from ING Direct. Boy, would I love to have that APY today.

Yeah, some of my money is in a ten-year CD at 3.8%. I'm hoping that they call it when they have the ability to in July. If they don't, I don't want to sell it, but I might try to cancel it if the penalties aren't too severe. Even now with a brokered CD you can do better than that, especially if you live in Ohio or Texas.. Goldman has special offerings for those states that you can buy on the secondary market, that are yielding near 4.5%.
 

Ovid

Member
Why is Capital One up today after posting a loss? I mean they are going to continue to rack up credit card losses for the foreseeable future with unemployment rising. It just doesn't make sense.

EDIT: Closed down 4%. OK, that's more like it.
 

Ovid

Member
SNDK up 13% today. I forgot about this company. I'm actually still holding their stock from October. I remember I also purchased some more late last year when the price dropped to single digits. I'm up 72% on that purchase.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Attention Marvel, Ubisoft, Bethesda, Intel employees: I've created a blog that I hope can set up some interesting trade ideas for us. I've noticed that we're all kind of doing our own thing without rhyme or reason. I was going to start posting charts here but I figured it would be easier via a blog. These are the charts I use to trade everyday (i.e. how I make a living). Here's the url:

http://cloudcluster.blogspot.com/

The first post explains why I'm taking my Amazon money off the table.
 
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