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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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I don't understand these charts:p I mostly trade on my understanding of the businesses related to my field. The best purchases I made were all in the video game sector.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Ether_Snake said:
I don't understand these charts:p I mostly trade on my understanding of the businesses related to my field. The best purchases I made were all in the video game sector.

That's awesome that you can do that and I would definitely encourage you to keep it up if it's working for you.

These charts are not hard. In fact, they're the opposite of hard. The premise is simple: buy stocks that are rising and short stocks that are falling. Stocks have natural pivot points that when combined form a trend. This is approach has been around for hundreds of years and a better system has yet to be invented. A lot of trades will fail and most should fail. The primary goal is to cut losses quickly (i.e. 2% max loss) and let your winners run until the trend is violated.

I guess I'm just trying to say that this thread is just a bunch of ideas - some work, some don't. But the issue is that there is no concrete, systematic approach. No system to tell you when to buy or when to sell. It's just "well, I think I'll be X stock today" or "damn, I wish I bought X stock!" It doesn't really have to be that hard.
 

Ovid

Member
RSTEIN said:
Attention Marvel, Ubisoft, Bethesda, Intel employees: I've created a blog that I hope can set up some interesting trade ideas for us. I've noticed that we're all kind of doing our own thing without rhyme or reason. I was going to start posting charts here but I figured it would be easier via a blog. These are the charts I use to trade everyday (i.e. how I make a living). Here's the url:

http://cloudcluster.blogspot.com/

The first post explains why I'm taking my Amazon money off the table.
I would love to see those charts but for some reason I can't zoom in on them.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
tarius1210 said:
I would love to see those charts but for some reason I can't zoom in on them.

fixed!

So, I updated with FXY (Yen). Tomorrow is an important day. We're hitting overhead resistance. I'm long (in at $100). If we fail at resistance and violate the current uptrend then I'm gone. Conversely, if we break through resistance then I'll add to my position and continue to ride the uptrend. I'll move my stops up as we head higher. This is the basic idea: Cut and run for ~1-2% loss if trend breaks, add to and ride up until the chart tells you otherwise. You'll have lots of 1-2% losses (maybe 60% of all trades), but you'll end up with 40% of your trades in stocks going higher and yielding 10%+.
 

Ether_Snake

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Well you can't apply rules to a stock's value, unless everyone plays the same game, in which case people would know what to expect and then the game wouldn't be followed anymore.

A while ago I had an idea but never took the time to apply it, but basically I wait for a relatively strong drop after an all-time high, and buy when it goes back up around 10% from the drop (except if the rise back up is very quick, then I wait or skip it, I usually want to see a 10% rise over two months, I usually look at 5 years charts), and sell again when it gets really close, matches, or surpasses the previous all time high. Rinse/repeat, and only with safe stocks. If it fails to reach its former all time high I keep apply the same process but instead look at the last highest point after the all time high. I did this test with a lot of stocks and I would have made a good return.

EDIT: All time high can mean last highest point in years, not necessarily life time high.
 

Ovid

Member
Ether_Snake said:
WHY IS INTC DOWN 49% IN AH??!
Oh my god...my heart skipped a beat for a second when I saw your post. I think it is error since only one trade occurred at that price. The price $7.91 seems to be half the price of the trade that took place (which would be $15.82).
 
Like I've noticed and mentioned before, what happens in AH is crazy, crazy shit. I'm not sure I'll ever understand what causes it, but stocks are insanely volatile for some reason, or they're just reported incorrectly. I suspect it'll open around where it closed at, I see no reason it should be at 50% of that. :lol
 

Ether_Snake

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Yeah I saw that happen with ATVI I think once before. Not down by 50%, but down by a certain large % and people on the Yahoo forums said it would open where it closed at, that it was just one trade, and that's what happened.
 

Ovid

Member
Government, Banks Seem on the Same Page; Big Losses Are Looming
Wall Street wasn't rattled by newly disclosed details of the government's stress tests of 19 large financial institutions, even though the banks could face hundreds of billions of dollars in additional losses.

Federal bank regulators are expected on Friday to start sharing preliminary results of stress tests with the banks that have been scrutinized since February. The findings are expected to be made public next week.

Wednesday, analysts scrambled to assess the latest implications of the government's criteria after The Wall Street Journal released details of a confidential document that the Federal Reserve gave banks in February.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124044520714145711.html

Anyone short on financials?
 

Ether_Snake

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Sources: GM to shut most US plants up to 9 weeks

General Motors Corp. is planning to temporarily close most of its U.S. factories for up to nine weeks this summer because of slumping sales and growing inventories of unsold vehicles, three people briefed on the plan said Wednesday. Analysts say the company could be seeing sales decline because of talk about a potential bankruptcy.
 

Pimpwerx

Member
tarius1210 said:
Government, Banks Seem on the Same Page; Big Losses Are Looming

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124044520714145711.html

Anyone short on financials?
Yes...oh god yes. Bought some Ultrashort ETFs. SKF is in the low 60's right now. I'll probably buy a bit more in the coming weeks and hope it goes back over 100. I don't trust the bookkeeping of the banks. I don't believe the forclosure problem has gone away. Jobs will still be lost, so more houses are going to be abandoned. Property values still have a ways to go down here in Miami, and FL is a big part of the national problem. The banks have to take a hit again this year. PEACE.
 

Ovid

Member
Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary at the time, told Lewis in December that the management and board of directors of Bank of America would be removed if the deal wasn't closed, Cuomo said in a letter summarizing his findings to regulators and legislators.
Paulson told Cuomo's office that he made the threat at the request of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, according to Cuomo's letter. Read the full letter here.
This and other facts unearthed by the probe raise questions about the transparency of the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program, as well as corporate governance and disclosure practices at Bank of America, Cuomo wrote.
Cuomo's findings show how aggressive the Treasury and the Fed have been in trying to stabilize the financial system in the face of the worst credit crisis and recession for decades.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/paulson-threatened-lewis-seal-merrill/story.aspx?guid=%7B44D09600-944A-4A04-8AB9-919E166E0AF4%7D&dist=msr_9

What, wasn't it already known that the government forced BofA to acquire Merill Lynch?
 

Zyzyxxz

Member

Cloudy

Banned
Zyzyxxz said:
pretty much, I knew since the beginning the government wanted BofA to buy it.

Just that the media hasn't attacked the government for this decision. SHould have let them fail or been bought up on their own.

Who do they attack? Bush and Paulson are gone..
 

Ether_Snake

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I said earlier that TTWO earnings were today but oops it was just the shareholders meeting:p
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
30 unique visitors came to my blog today. I am a market mover and shaker!!

Edit: 31! Someone just clicked on the link from Neogaf ;)
 

gkryhewy

Member
Interesting Reuters numbers on Japanese tech firms. Which one of these things is not like the others? :lol :lol

edit: okay, table didn't transfer so well.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUST3905320090424

(For accompanying story, double-click on [ID:nT225054])

TOKYO, April 24 (Reuters) - Following are consensus estimates
for net profit at major Japanese electronics for the last and
current financial year, as well as the companies' own estimates
for the past financial year.

Figures are in billions of yen. Numbers in parentheses next
to the company names show the number of analysts' polled by
Thomson Reuters.

Numbers in parentheses next to figures are percentage changes
from a year earlier.

The percentage change for the 2009/10 consensus is based on
the 2008/09 consensus.

Sharp Corp (6753.T) will report on Monday, followed by Canon
Inc (7751.T) on Thursday. Nintendo Co Ltd (7974.OS) will report
on May 7, Sony Corp (6758.T) on May 14 and Panasonic Corp
(6752.T) on May 15.

The business year ends on March 31 for Sharp, Nintendo, Sony
and Panasonic, while Canon closes its books on Dec. 31.

2008/09 2008/09 2009/10

(consensus) (company) (consensus)
SHARP(21) -122.6 -130.0 -44.3
NINTENDO(24) 243.3(-5 pct) 230.0(-11 pct) 329.0(+35 pct)
SONY(19) -175.3 -150.0 -109.6
PANASONIC(18) -385.6 -380.0 -110.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CY2008 result CY2009 CY2009

(company) (company) (consensus)
CANON(21) 309.1(-37 pct) 98.0(-68 pct) 79.4(-74 pct)
(Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka)
 

Ether_Snake

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F up 16%

BHI up 4%

ATVI earnings on May 7th

EDIT: Hon down 3% after earnings
 

kathode

Member
The S&P 500 is getting into overbought territory now from a short term view. Looking at DD July puts today. I'm thinking we might have a little more upside to go today before I buy in. Earnings season is so crazy though, I get really nervous about which way things are going to swing.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
You have to be very, very careful in this market. It's obvious to me that there are vast sums out there being triggered by buy programs and quant funds. It's really distorting the market. The market is very tense right now. A lot of stocks/commodities are at key support and resistance levels. I'm on the sidelines right now, except for long FXY (yen), short GLD (gold), long OIL, and long WMT (Wal-Mart). I have very tight stops if these violate support/resistance.
 

Ovid

Member
RSTEIN said:
You have to be very, very careful in this market. It's obvious to me that there are vast sums out there being triggered by buy programs and quant funds. It's really distorting the market. The market is very tense right now.
Agreed.
 

Zhengi

Member
I'm so glad I have MSFT. It's a very good stock.

Also, an important date will be May 4th. That's when the government releases its stress test results on banks. This could be a big day in either direction depending on what is in the report.
 

Ovid

Member
RSTEIN, thanks for pointing out CPB on your blog. I'll be doing a bit more research on them.
KFT is trading at the the same level as well and looks pretty attractive.

Both have decent dividends.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
tarius1210 said:
RSTEIN, thanks for pointing out CPB on your blog. I'll be doing a bit more research on them.
KFT is trading at the the same level as well and looks pretty attractive.

Actually my post was to meant to instill caution :D Something ain't right when a stock or group of stocks isn't rallying with the rest of the market. KMT, WMT, CPB are all near their March lows. Other retailers/consumer discretionary stocks have rallied 80-100% since the market bottom. What's wrong with these big caps? What are they telling us about the market and the economy?
 

Ether_Snake

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I would short Chipotle :lol I know that during an epidemic I would be much less likely to eat out, and if this happens I think Chipotle will be the most affected just cause it's Mexican food. Even if it doesn't make sense:p
 

Ovid

Member
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- State Street Bank and Trust Co., manager of a 401(k) investment fund for General Motors Corp. employees, has sold the majority of its shares in the automaker on concern that the stock could lose all value in a bankruptcy.

State Street sold 75 million shares, or about 12.4 percent of GM outstanding common stock, between March 31 and yesterday, Julie Gibson, a GM spokeswoman, said yesterday in an interview. It held most of those shares in a 401(k) fund for 29,800 employees and retirees. The fund is one of several options available in the GM employee-retirement savings plan.

The investment company held a total of 103 million GM shares at the end of the year, according to Bloomberg data.

State Street notified employee investors of the move in a letter, saying that the trustee is authorized to sell the shares if there is serious concern about GM’s viability as a going concern or if there is no short-term possibility of recouping substantial proceeds from the sale of the stock in bankruptcy.

“State Street made the determination that this standard had been met due to the economic climate and the circumstances surrounding GM’s business,” it said in the letter, which was included in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The sell-off probably concluded yesterday, State Street said in the letter.

Hannah Grove, a spokeswoman for parent company State Street Corp., didn’t immediately respond to telephone and e-mail messages seeking comment.

GM fell 92 percent over the last year and is operating with $13.4 billion in U.S. loans. President Barack Obama has given the Detroit-based automaker until June 1 to restructure its debts or file for bankruptcy court protection from creditors.

According to the filing, the funds from the sale were transferred to short-term fixed income investments. Plan participants have until May 29 to redirect their stake in the fund or the money will be moved to the employees’ default funds.
Ummmm....okay
 

Ovid

Member
I say after the May 4th stress test results, the markets head downward. If all indications point to GM filing for bankruptcy before June 1st, then this predication is all but certain to occur.
 

Ether_Snake

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Sounds to me like the markets will freak out tomorrow due to the swine flu spreading.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Despite what's going on the market is proving to be resilient. The market is currently overbought, but it continues to react OK to bad news and feeds on good news (or green shoots, to use the popular phrase). For example, MCD is unchanged today, WFMI is only down 2%, oil rebounded from its intraday low. Financials are hanging in.

The key thing is not good or bad news but to observe how the market reacts to news. China announced it has added significanlty to its gold reserves yet gold doesn't budge. We're in the beginnings of a world wide health alert and gold doesn't budge. The US dollar has started to weaken and gold hasn't really budged. I'm still short gold. I'm long yen.

I have very tight stops on my longs and shorts. Volatility has come down a lot but anything can happen. For all I know I could be stopped out of all my positions tomorrow.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
FUCK ME! I had a $18.70 stop on WFMI this morning. There was a small bid at 18.70 so my stop order was sent... and filled at 19.18. THERE WAS NEVER A TRADE A 18.70. FOR ONE SECOND SOME PERSON PUTS A BID AT 18.70 SO MY ENTIRE POSITION WAS SOLD... and then the stock rallied and is up 1.6%. FUCK
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
FUCK ME! I had a $18.70 stop on WFMI this morning. There was a small bid at 18.70 so my stop order was sent... and filled at 19.18. THERE WAS NEVER A TRADE A 18.70. FOR ONE SECOND SOME PERSON PUTS A BID AT 18.70 SO MY ENTIRE POSITION WAS SOLD... and then the stock rallied and is up 1.6%. FUCK

155jvup.jpg


That sucks man. I bought FDX calls yesterday that are doing all right today.
 

kathode

Member
Sold out of FDX calls for 10% gain. Meh! Just didn't seem like it wanted to make a strong upward push beyond what it's already done, and I don't like holding these things more than a couple days. Looking to see if I can find some tasty puts today.

Edit: lolz, I missed out on an extra 10% at least.
 

Ether_Snake

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ATVI up nearly 7% after GS upgrade, and BHI up nearly 8% after earnings.

EDIT: STP up 10%
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Hi Investment-Age.

I'm a full time student right now, so I'm not really in the market, but i just wanted to pop in and say that The Intelligent Investor is an amazing piece of literature, and that far too many people neglect to follow the common-sense advice and concepts that are presented by Benjamin Graham.

Everyone should read The Intelligent Investor and take the underlying concepts presented within its pages to heart.

That is all.
 
Ether_Snake said:
ATVI up nearly 7% after GS upgrade, and BHI up nearly 8% after earnings.

EDIT: STP up 10%
Yeah I'm heavily exposed to ATVI. I was waiting for people to move on this one. Excellent news. Prob more to come. What other companies are you in? What are your thoughts on EA? The market seems to want to buy them but I feel differently.
 

Ether_Snake

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STP up 16% + another 4% in AH. FSLR up 13% in AH. Basically, solars had a good day.

BHI up 8.8%, HON up 5%.

TheKingsCrown said:
Yeah I'm heavily exposed to ATVI. I was waiting for people to move on this one. Excellent news. Prob more to come. What other companies are you in? What are your thoughts on EA? The market seems to want to buy them but I feel differently.

I own ATVI, CGT, BHI, HON, STP, and TTWO.

I don't want to buy ERTS. Back in the fall I was on the line because their lineup impressed me and I thought maybe they could turn around, but I felt (and rightly so) that Dead Space and Mirror's Edge wouldn't sell that much. Then I saw how Spore fell flat on its face, and Dead Space and ME failed to sell a lot of copies. So basically, their whole strategy of "we'll be to the good guys, maybe it pays off" has been a blind jump on their part. It shows they had no idea what to do about their continuing problems and almost superstitiously decided to bet on "new IPs" that were really risky, which was obviously a last ditch attempt at saving themselves. Their TTWO offer earlier last year also showed they had no idea what they were doing; number 1, it was a stupid offer that wasn't worth it, it was more of the same old EA buying itself out of their mess only to push their problems to later date. Then they rightly removed their offer. I bet you they will come back with another offer for TTWO eventually. They're out of ideas. Back then they must have thought they could do without GTA and bet on their new IPs but that all failed so they'll go back to try and buy TTWO. Or maybe Ubisoft (please no, but they still own 14%). I wouldn't be surprised if EA themselves get bought out eventually, we'll see. They're still bloated. Oh and another one of their "new IPs" strategy, Dante's Inferno, is obviously going to hit a wall if not get canceled, the reception has been awful.

Anyway I think EA is doomed to crash hard. ATVI is the new king on the block, mostly thanks to Blizzard and a decent corporate strategy. But they did pull off some dumb moves, so it's mostly Blizzard. After them, it's Capcom (the only Japanese dev/publisher that knows what they are doing and that will do fine anywhere on the planet, and they're much better than all other studios out there after ATVI).

THQI is probably going to go the Midway way.

Eidos, they have some serious potential if their Montreal-studio games are a success, but it also depends a lot on how Square Enix (terrible management, terrible foresight, and it has been going on for over a decade) will handle them.
 

kathode

Member
Bought some puts on GD yesterday. It's quite overbought for now, much like the SPX is looking. Today's surge had me worried but GD is really hovering right around neutral. Going to look to buy more today and average down. Hoping that in the next day or two we'll see some profit taking and I can clean up on this one.

Edit: Being more aggressive with puts. I think we're going down.
 
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