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[Ether_Snake]

CGT

MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 30, 2009 -- (Toronto:CAE.TO - News)(NYSE:CGT - News) CAE has ended fiscal year 2009 (April 1, 2008 to March 31, 2009) with record order activity in its military segments. Order intake for CAE's military segments totaled C$1.09 billion, including more than C$540 million in the fourth quarter alone. The total order intake represents a 47 per cent increase over the last fiscal year and the largest annual military order intake in the Company's history.

"Our strong military business and our diversification across regions, products and services have enhanced CAE's position in the current environment," said Marc Parent, CAE's Chief Operating Officer. "As more militaries and governments look to an increased use of simulation and synthetic training, the defence market continues to be positive for CAE as demonstrated by our record order intake for fiscal year 2009."

And STP up 8%.

EDIT: Ubisoft down 9% after earnings.

 

[RSTEIN]

Bought some puts on GD yesterday. It's quite overbought for now, much like the SPX is looking. Today's surge had me worried but GD is really hovering right around neutral. Going to look to buy more today and average down. Hoping that in the next day or two we'll see some profit taking and I can clean up on this one.

Edit: Being more aggressive with puts. I think we're going down.

I had my trigger finger ready on GD puts this morning myself and I had to meet my father in law for lunch and never bought them... doh!

 

[kathode]

I had my trigger finger ready on GD puts this morning myself and I had to meet my father in law for lunch and never bought them... doh!

Debating whether to sell out this afternoon or hope for some more red tomorrow. If I sold out now I'd get about 18% if I could get my limit.

Edit: Sold out for right around 22%. Very big position for me - about 40% of my portfolio, so I don't want to wait around when I've got those kinds of gains to claim.

Bought a few puts on DOW, but much less aggressively.

 

[RSTEIN]

Edit: Sold out for right around 22%. Very big position for me - about 40% of my portfolio, so I don't want to wait around when I've got those kinds of gains to claim.

I see our talk didn't work >.> I hope you don't go boom like Megaton.

 

[kathode]

I see our talk didn't work >.> I hope you don't go boom like Megaton.

Hey, it was built up over the course of three trades! I started small and built it up. But when you're confident, you gotta go for it. Anything less than about 10% of my portfolio isn't going to generate returns worth mentioning (for someone with as little patience as me :lol)

 

[Tarazet]

Still holding steady with my fixed income strategy. I have a bond written by CIT and a 10-year CD at 3.8%. It's going to take a miracle for me to sell either one, so I'll be holding these to maturity unless 10 year CDs suddenly start yielding 2%. It's glacial, but if I stick to it and hold everything I'll still make the same average return as a typical large-cap stock portfolio - somewhere around 5-6%. I'll be able to reinvest the CIT bond after it matures in early June. Once I've got a solid fixed income core and qualify for lower transaction rates on stocks, then I'll think about getting into the equity side again.

 

[RSTEIN]

I haven't updated my blog in the last two days... sorry (not sure if anyone reads it ).

I'm still long OIL (up about 9.7% since I posted it)
I'm still short GLD (up about 2% since I posted it)
Got stopped out of MCD when it broke through resistance (lost 2%).
I would also be up big time on WFMI if my stupid stop order didn't get sent.

 

[Ovid]

I haven't updated my blog in the last two days... sorry (not sure if anyone reads it ).

I check it everyday.

 

[RSTEIN]

I check it everyday.

now i feel bad

 

[kathode]

I haven't updated my blog in the last two days... sorry (not sure if anyone reads it ).

I'm still long OIL (up about 9.7% since I posted it)
I'm still short GLD (up about 2% since I posted it)
Got stopped out of MCD when it broke through resistance (lost 2%).
I would also be up big time on WFMI if my stupid stop order didn't get sent.

I got it on my bookmarks toolbar, but figured you had dropped it like you dropped the twitters. Then today you make both a post and a tweet! Mind = blown

Bought a few CAT puts. Still holding DOW puts. Had some downward movement today but the price of the puts hasn't really budged. Is it because they're September puts? That was all that was listed as available beyond June.

 

[RSTEIN]

I got it on my bookmarks toolbar, but figured you had dropped it like you dropped the twitters. Then today you make both a post and a tweet! Mind = blown

Sorry guys. I've been out of my trading rhythm last couple of days. My mom came to visit and I had to get her to the airport at 4:00 am so being up all night+waking up early not a good mix. Then my mom came back from her trip (day trip to Chicago to see Oprah...) and my folks came over during the day. I promise to update it every day now!

Bought a few CAT puts. Still holding DOW puts. Had some downward movement today but the price of the puts hasn't really budged. Is it because they're September puts? That was all that was listed as available beyond June.

Yes & what is the strike? Plus the general market. Volatility has come down, people are much more bullish = less actual demand for puts right now. I see it by watching the puts trade all day.

 

[kathode]

Yes & what is the strike? Plus the general market. Volatility has come down, people are much more bullish = less actual demand for puts right now. I see it by watching the puts trade all day.

Strike is 16. It was down a max of about 1.5% today. Contract price hasn't moved more than about 5%. Probably a lot to do with volatility too, forgot about that.

 

[Ether_Snake]

CGT jumped 5.6% today but it seems to be a delayed reaction to yesterday's news.

EDIT: And you know what pisses me off? I lost more money than I gained with stocks in 2008 but I still pay taxes on the gains. It should be how much you gained total, and if you're still in the negative you don't pay taxes. Geez, $600 in fucking taxes.

 

[kathode]

EDIT: And you know what pisses me off? I lost more money than I gained with stocks in 2008 but I still pay taxes on the gains. It should be how much you gained total, and if you're still in the negative you don't pay taxes. Geez, $600 in fucking taxes.

How does that work? Do you mean you sold off the winners but are still holding the losers? If you actually realized losses, then they would have canceled out the gains right?

 

[Gallbaro]

How does that work? Do you mean you sold off the winners but are still holding the losers? If you actually realized losses, then they would have canceled out the gains right?

Yup, its a gains tax not a current position as of December 31st at 4 pm tax. It is also why beat up stocks tend to drop further the last week of trading, to realize the loss.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I mean during the year, I made X amount of money selling shares, but in the end lost more on shares I sold at a loss. Yet I still have to pay taxes on the X amount of shares I made a profit on.

BTW AMD has gone from 3$ to almost 4$ in a month. I'm tempted to buy on a drop eventually but whatever I gotta save money.

 

[Ovid]

I mean during the year, I made X amount of money selling shares, but in the end lost more on shares I sold at a loss. Yet I still have to pay taxes on the X amount of shares I made a profit on.

BTW AMD has gone from 3$ to almost 4$ in a month. I'm tempted to buy on a drop eventually but whatever I gotta save money.

I'm looking at their income statement year-to-date and they haven't made a profit. Why are you so tempted to buy shares of AMD?

 

[kathode]

My puts aren't doing so well today :lol

 

[RSTEIN]

My puts aren't doing so well today :lol

Um, yeah.

My portfolio is the following:

Puts:
BIG
PPG
JCI
WFMI
JCP
WAG
BDK
COH
CAT

Long:
PG
OIL

Short:
GLD

I am getting absolutely rocked today. Over 70 overbought stocks now. I'm going in heavy. I may go bankrupt. If you don't hear from me, I'm probably dead.

 

[RSTEIN]

This is a great feeling. My heart feels like its in my stomach and I'm doing everything I can to fight it. I have about $20k in open orders with another $40k behind that... So many stocks have gone parabolic. I'm about to shove all in.

 

[Tarazet]

This is a great feeling. My heart feels like its in my stomach and I'm doing everything I can to fight it. I have about $20k in open orders with another $40k behind that... So many stocks have gone parabolic. I'm about to shove all in.

Jesus christ man. Maybe you should just do coke, it would be a cheaper habit. :lol

 

[kathode]

This is a great feeling. My heart feels like its in my stomach and I'm doing everything I can to fight it. I have about $20k in open orders with another $40k behind that... So many stocks have gone parabolic. I'm about to shove all in.

Mine aren't doing as bad as I feared today, thankfully. Definitely down but I'm still pretty upbeat about them.

 

[Meier]

I finally dumped Citi... the recent news about possibly needing another $10b in bailout funds has me a bit worried. I lost a little on it but oh well, I feel better not having to worry about it any more. I got out of Sprint today at $5.33... made $1.60 a share off of it. I may buy more if it falls back to $4.75 or so. I expect it will go up again as the Pre gets closer.

My biggest regret is selling off BCS to buy AIG... AIG has been absolutely stagnant and BCS has gone up 6 bucks. Ouch. :lol My portfolio is small enough that it really doesn't hurt me too much in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Ovid]

Damn you JBLU for going up 9% today.

 

[mckmas8808]

Will the Dow end up over 8,400 today? Will the S&P end up over 900 points? We'll see. Either way I'm surprised to see this day of trading.

 

[RSTEIN]

Sold my OIL and am now short CPB. Bought starter puts in MWV, PH, GD.

 

[Ovid]

GERN up 4% today and now up another 8% after hours, I wonder why? STEM up 4% today and up another 4% after hours as well.

Oh I see why...

Adami's Rising Star Stock - Monday May 4th

 

[Ovid]

Picked up a few shares of DIS today. They pay a decent dividend and have excellent cash flow.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm looking at their income statement year-to-date and they haven't made a profit. Why are you so tempted to buy shares of AMD?

Because I think they will bought out eventually. It's just a guess really.

AMD up 11%
STP up 13% (solars have been going up like crazy recently)
ERTS up 5% plus another 2% in AH
ADBE was downgraded, -2.8%.
TTWO up 2% plus another 5% in AH.

I'm not buying anything soon, need to save money.

EDIT: BTW I'm still pessimistic, like I said before NOTHING had changed in the economy, we're going to end up in the same mess soon enough except it will be the US government that will have all the liabilities. It's all about the trade deficit. Until that turns around, nothing has changed.

EDIT2: Eh, rumours, I ain't so sure about this one. Would be a bad move from Apple's part IMO:

Adami noted that there is chatter that Apple (AAPL Quote) is eyeing Electronic Arts(ERTS Quote) as a takeover target.

On page 3: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10495815/3/fast-money-recap-does-the-rally-have-legs.html Doesn't say anything else. I call bullshit. If Apple buys EA, they get a huge anvil on their shoulders.

Also I hadn't seen this today:

Google And Apple Under Investigation For Anti-Trust Collusion

The FTC has opened an investigation into whether the close ties between Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) constitute a violation of anti-trust laws, the NYT says.

The companies share a director, Arthur Levinson, the former CEO of Genentech, but it is likely Eric Schmidt’s presence on Apple’s board that is raising the FTC’s hackles.

More at the link

BTW ERTS earnings tomorrow! ATVI earnings Thursday!

 

[Ether_Snake]

I bet ERTS will rally tomorrow based on this ridiculous rumor. And I will laugh. Sort of.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

STP up 16% + another 4% in AH. FSLR up 13% in AH. Basically, solars had a good day.

BHI up 8.8%, HON up 5%.



I own ATVI, CGT, BHI, HON, STP, and TTWO.

I don't want to buy ERTS. Back in the fall I was on the line because their lineup impressed me and I thought maybe they could turn around, but I felt (and rightly so) that Dead Space and Mirror's Edge wouldn't sell that much. Then I saw how Spore fell flat on its face, and Dead Space and ME failed to sell a lot of copies. So basically, their whole strategy of "we'll be to the good guys, maybe it pays off" has been a blind jump on their part. It shows they had no idea what to do about their continuing problems and almost superstitiously decided to bet on "new IPs" that were really risky, which was obviously a last ditch attempt at saving themselves. Their TTWO offer earlier last year also showed they had no idea what they were doing; number 1, it was a stupid offer that wasn't worth it, it was more of the same old EA buying itself out of their mess only to push their problems to later date. Then they rightly removed their offer. I bet you they will come back with another offer for TTWO eventually. They're out of ideas. Back then they must have thought they could do without GTA and bet on their new IPs but that all failed so they'll go back to try and buy TTWO. Or maybe Ubisoft (please no, but they still own 14%). I wouldn't be surprised if EA themselves get bought out eventually, we'll see. They're still bloated. Oh and another one of their "new IPs" strategy, Dante's Inferno, is obviously going to hit a wall if not get canceled, the reception has been awful.

Anyway I think EA is doomed to crash hard. ATVI is the new king on the block, mostly thanks to Blizzard and a decent corporate strategy. But they did pull off some dumb moves, so it's mostly Blizzard. After them, it's Capcom (the only Japanese dev/publisher that knows what they are doing and that will do fine anywhere on the planet, and they're much better than all other studios out there after ATVI).

THQI is probably going to go the Midway way.

Eidos, they have some serious potential if their Montreal-studio games are a success, but it also depends a lot on how Square Enix (terrible management, terrible foresight, and it has been going on for over a decade) will handle them.

Hey thanks for this, was an interesting read.

Yeah I feel the same about EA. However, the buyout thing may make sense but only for 2 players: Apple / Microsoft. And even then its a huge stretch that would be difficult to get past shareholders.

Bottom line: too difficult to predict and thus too risky for the particular cash with which I'm working.

Wait, you can buy into Capcom?

 

[Ovid]

Another great quarter for MVL.

 

[kathode]

Had some stuff approach breakeven when we hit around -10 on S&P, although CAT has a ways more to go. Debating whether to try and take single digit percentile gains/losses or bet on more red in the next couple days...

 

[Meier]

Hmm, hope $5 wasn't the bottom on Sprint for the short term.

 

[RSTEIN]

I think a pretty good risk/reward trade here is SPY. Put a stop around 88-89 to protect yourself. The SP500 is holding 900 pretty well here. Buy at ~91, take only 2-3 pts on the downside and participate if the rally continues.

 

[PapiShasho]

Any chance we ever break the March lows ever again? I missed that opportunity (SIRI at 0.07 arghhhhh didnt pull the trigger!!!) so I keep waiting and the market just doesn't let up. Fuck this good economy.

 

[Meier]

Got into ABK at $1.12... this thing is moving all over the place.

 

[Ovid]

Any chance we ever break the March lows ever again? I missed that opportunity (SIRI at 0.07 arghhhhh didnt pull the trigger!!!) so I keep waiting and the market just doesn't let up. Fuck this good economy.

Difficult to say. If we do ever reach those lows I think it would occur sometime during the summer or right when we come upon the fall season.

On to the good news:

GERN up 21% on no news.
Freakin JBLU up 11%
and CGT finally over 7 bucks up 2%

My entire portfolio (some mentioned above) is in the green today except CBAI, INTC, and SNDK.

Got into ABK at $1.12... this thing is moving all over the place.

Damn, up 40%. Still not touching financials.

 

[iifu]

Any chance we ever break the March lows ever again? I missed that opportunity (SIRI at 0.07 arghhhhh didnt pull the trigger!!!) so I keep waiting and the market just doesn't let up. Fuck this good economy.

The March lows could very well be the bottom in nominal terms for this 2000-20xx bear market, but that doesn't mean we won't be seeing them again in the (near) future.

 

[kathode]

Well this market is annoying me quite a bit >:0 Hoping I can rid myself of these puts this week, but CAT is just soaring. Worried about that one.

 

[mckmas8808]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key interbank lending rate fell to its lowest point on record Tuesday as credit market conditions continue to ease.

The 3-month Libor fell to 0.99%, dropping below 1% for the first time since 1986, when the British Bankers Association started keeping records.

Libor, the London Interbank Offered Rate, is a daily average of rates that 16 different banks charge each other to lend money in London. It is a closely watched benchmark and is used to calculate adjustable-rate mortgages. More than $350 trillion in assets are tied to Libor.

The 3-month rate stood at 1.01% on Friday. It was not quoted Monday because of the May Day holiday in Britain. The overnight Libor rate was unchanged at 0.24%.

"This is good news," said Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics, at Moody's Economy.com. "It means that banks are trusting one another again and that we're getting to the bottom of the problems in the financial system."

The 3-month Libor soared to 4.8% in October after the collapse of brokerage Lehman Brothers, and the resulting market volatility caused banks and investors to hoard capital.

Faucher said a 3-month Libor in the range of 0.75% could indicate that the credit market is "pretty much functioning normally."

The so called TED spread, which measures the gap between 3-month Libor and the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill, now stands at roughly 80 basis points (or 0.80 percentage points, sic). A more narrow spread means banks are more willing to lend. It widened to 4.6 percentage points at the peak of the crisis in October.

The retreat below 1% comes after central banks around the world lowered interest rates and took drastic steps to encourage lending.

The Federal Reserve has slashed U.S. interest rates to near 0% and pumped billions of dollars into the financial system to boost liquidity. Central banks in Europe and Asia have taken similar steps.

Kim Rupert, a fixed income analyst at Action Economics, said banks have become more confident, and lending rates have come down, largely because of "central bank actions to provide massive amounts of liquidity around the world."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/05/markets/bondcenter/credit/index.htm?postversion=2009050513


Of course these things don't get reported by the media as much as a free falling economy.

 

[Meier]

I've started out small (I could probably be using another $5-$10k of my money easily) but in just under 2 months I've now made a profit of 50%.. if I'm saying that right. In other words, if I started with $5,000 and was now at $7,500... that's my equivalent gain. :lol

As I get more and more comfortable over the coming years and slowly put more and more money in, I'm going to be so glad I got my feet wet early. My return makes me laugh and cry when I compare it to the performance of my 401k...

 

[Ovid]

Walt Disney Co.'s fiscal second-quarter earnings dropped 46% on lower revenue, especially at its theme-park and movie-studio divisions. Charges also pressured the bottom line.

Even so, the entertainment giant's shares rose 3.6% to $23.99 in after-hours trading as the bottom-line results topped Wall Street's expectations. Revenue, though, fell short.

President and Chief Executive Robert Iger called the quarter "difficult ... due to the weak economy and other factors."

The recession has cut attendance at Disney theme parks and its entertainment operations have been suffering from declining advertising, viewership and DVD sales. To find other revenue sources, the media company recently struck deals to add clips from its shows to Google Inc.'s YouTube and bought a big stake in Hulu.com, the online-video site co-owned by General Electric Co.'s NBC Universal and News Corp.

For the quarter ended March 28, Disney reported a profit of $613 million, or 33 cents a share, down from $1.13 billion, or 58 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest results included 10 cents a share in restructuring charges and write-downs.

Revenue dropped 7.2% to $8.09 billion.

Analysts' estimates were for per-share earnings of 40 cents, not counting the special items, on revenue of $8.16 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters.

Disney's media networks division, which includes television and provides about 40% of the company's revenue, saw earnings slid 3.7% but revenue rose 2%.

Profit at Disney's theme parks, which provide almost a quarter of the company's revenue, fell 50% and revenue declined 12%. Comparisons were hurt by Easter not being in the quarter this year as it was last year. Disney has been offering discounts to boost attendance and has cut about 1,900 jobs in the unit. Disney said those who visited the parks in general spent less while there.

Profit sank 97% in the studio-entertainment division while revenue dropped 21% primarily because of decreases in U.S. DVD sales and world-wide theater ticket sales. Its two main movies during the quarter -- "Bedtime Stories" and "Confessions of a Shopaholic" -- underperformed year-earlier hits "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" and "Enchanted."

So far my recent purchases have been working out. DIS up 3% after hours.

 

[Ovid]

Any chance we ever break the March lows ever again? I missed that opportunity (SIRI at 0.07 arghhhhh didnt pull the trigger!!!) so I keep waiting and the market just doesn't let up. Fuck this good economy.

I don't understand why you would have bought SIRI at $0.07 in February (way too risky). Bankruptcy would have been the only option at that point if it wasn't for Liberty Media throwing the company a life vest. I'm still holding this company after purchasing at $4.90 (five years ago) and purchasing more at $0.35 last year.

CAE gets lift from military segment

CAE Inc. is expected to report a strong fourth-quarter result next week despite a weakening aerospace market, according to UBS analyst Fadi Chamoun.

CAE, the leading manufacturer of full-flight simulators, is expected to report a 1.7% earnings growth, or 19 cents a share, for the final quarter of the year when it reports on May 14, Mr. Chamoun said. The gains are expected to be made on the back of a robust military segment, which topped a record $1.09-billion in sales last year, and “healthy’ deliveries in the civil segment, he said.

Mr. Chamoun added that he expected its free cash flows to be “particularly strong” at $92-million after a reversal of earlier investments in working capital.

He increased his price target to $8.25 a share, from $7 previously, but warned of a challenging year ahead and maintained his “neutral” rating.

“The outlook for [the current fiscal year] can be characterized as mixed with the strength in military revenues (UBSe +13% y/y) and EBIT margin (UBSe 15-16%) partially offsetting weakness in aerospace,” he said.

UBS is forecasting deliveries of 23 full-flight simulators this year compared to 35 last year, and utilization rates in civil training to decline after traffic for both commercial and business aviation continues to soften.

Didn't even see that article this morning. Great news.

 

[PapiShasho]

I don't understand why you would have bought SIRI at $0.07 in February (way too risky).

Exactly. I'm not in the market for long-term holdings, at least not yet, but it just didn't make sense for nobody to come in and save Sirius. A few nights before the announcement of the Liberty deal, when they met with some bankruptcy firm I just felt like it was BS, and I wanted to pull the trigger there but chickened out.

 

[Ovid]

Exactly. I'm not in the market for long-term holdings, at least not yet, but it just didn't make sense for nobody to come in and save Sirius. A few nights before the announcement of the Liberty deal, when they met with some bankruptcy firm I just felt like it was BS, and I wanted to pull the trigger there but chickened out.

Did you decide to buy after Liberty Media bailed them out? I remember it was hovering around $0.13 for a while. You would have made a decent return if you did.

 

[PapiShasho]

Did you decide to buy after Liberty Media bailed them out? I remember it was hovering around $0.13 for a while. You would have made a decent return if you did.

Nah, it was before. I remember following this sucker for a few weeks, and seeing that it came down to .05 before going back to the .07 to .10 range. I set a limit order for 0.05, thinking it'll see that price again before any deal happens, but it never went through.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't understand why you would have bought SIRI at $0.07 in February (way too risky). Bankruptcy would have been the only option at that point if it wasn't for Liberty Media throwing the company a life vest. I'm still holding this company after purchasing at $4.90 (five years ago) and purchasing more at $0.35 last year.

CAE gets lift from military segment

Didn't even see that article this morning. Great news.

CGT earnings next week.

STP up 9% right now.
HON up 4%
BHI up 3.5%

ERTS down almost 4% after today's results. ATVI earnings tomorrow!

 

[Ovid]

CGT earnings next week.

STP up 9% right now.
HON up 4%
BHI up 3.5%

ERTS down almost 4% after today's results. ATVI earnings tomorrow!

I'm thinking of loading up on CGT prior to earnings on the 14th. I bought some last month and I know CGT doesn't move much after earnings are released but do think it will be different this time since investors are bit more optimistic about the economy?

 

[RSTEIN]

OMG at this market!