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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

E

Ether_Snake

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Microsoft bond issue sparks takeover rumors

Microsoft, in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said that it would use the money for "general corporate purposes" and planned to offer five-year, 10-year and 30-year notes.

The Redmond, Washington-based company did not specify how much it hoped to raise from the bond offering, but Fitch Ratings put the amount at 3.75 billion dollars.

Microsoft has already issued two billion dollars in commercial paper, or short-term debt ,under a six-billion-dollar debt authorization made by its board late last year.

Moody's Investors Service assigned a "AAA" rating, its highest, to Microsoft's offering.

"The AAA rating for the company's inaugural debt issuance reflects the company's position as the world's largest software company with a strong and defensible market position throughout its diverse core offerings" Moody's Richard Lane said.

Moody's added that Microsoft's "very strong debt protection measures are supported by over 22 billion dollars of operating profit and nearly 12 billion dollars of free cash flow in a challenging business environment."

Microsoft was rebuffed last year in a 47.5-billion-dollar bid to take over Yahoo! but management has since changed at the Internet firm and the two companies have reportedly discussed a potential partnership.

Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer has said repeatedly that he is open to a tieup with Yahoo! on Web search, dominated by rival Google.

Business software firm SAP was seen as another potential target for Microsoft.

Microsoft shed 0.51 percent in New York on Monday to close at 19.32 dollars.
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R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
argon said:
I can understand some of your moves here, but why are you long a retailer like BBY? Consumer credit is down big time, and the personal savings rate is up.
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Yes, that's true. However, I do not use any fundamental information whatsoever.

A quote from Benoit Mandelbrot:

Mandelbrot said:
Prices are not driven solely by real-world events, news, and people. When investors, speculators, industrialists, and bankers come to together in a real marketplace, a special, new kind of dynamic emerges—greater than, and different from, the sum of the parts. To use the economists’ terms: In substantial part, prices are determined by endogenous effects peculiar to the inner workings of the markets themselves, rather than solely by the exogenous action of outside events.
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A quote from Jesse Livermore:

Livermore said:
I believe that behind all major movements in the stock market there are irresistible forces at work. This is all the successful speculator needs to know. Just be aware of the actual stock movements and act upon that knowledge. It is too difficult to match up world events or current events, or economic events with the movements of the stock market.
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So, I search for certain price patterns in the market. I have two main strategies: First, a trend following system that buys/shorts stocks as they respond to what Livermore would call "pivot points." If these points are violated then the trade is abandoned. For example, I went long EMC yesterday. It opened higher but is now below its trend line. This position was sold. Under this strategy, maybe 60-70% of all trades are positive. Losses are kept to a maximum of 1-2%. Winners are allowed to run as long as they respond to the trend and are held for various time periods.

My other strategy is a countertrend strategy built around indicators developed by J. Welles Wilder decades ago. I combine these indicators with other indicators taught to me by a person who has been in the industry for decades. I use options to build positions around key turning points in the market. Under this strategy, 97% of my trades are positive with an average gain of 11%. Losses average around 50%. Positions are held for an average 8.14 days.
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
This is a good time to play the 900 level on the SP500 (like I did several days ago). We're at 900 which is support (defended 4 times in the last week). I'm going to put in a trade with a stop below 900. We could bounce from here. If we break 900 then all bets are off and I'm out of the trade with a max loss of 1-2%.
 
K

kathode

Member
Kind of a weird finish. Haven't seen a green dow and a red S&P and NASDAQ in a long while. S&P climbed back up above 900 though.
 
Z

Zyzyxxz

Member
dammit my limit order was set at 0.59 and the stock hit 0.58 and now I'm stuck with it until it reaches that level again!

grrr.
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
Kind of a weird finish. Haven't seen a green dow and a red S&P and NASDAQ in a long while. S&P climbed back up above 900 though.
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Yeah, the SP500 didn't like staying below 900 for too long. After leading the market higher, tech has been leading the market down and we've seen a rotation into consumer staples. Energy continues to be on fire which helps the SP500. INTC's comments could give a boost to Nasdaq tomorrow.

Today was a great day. I sold most of my puts in the morning when the market was in the tank. My longs were up on the day. Then I bought more SPY at ~90. I missed my chance to sell GD. I was 5 off the bid and never got hit, then watched the market rally so that hurt.
 
K

kathode

Member
So this is a little bizarre -

Bought SPY calls yesterday. ETF options are fun! The volume is nuts compared to what I'm used to so those things really move fast. Later in the day I get nervous about holding because I knew retail data was coming today and didn't want to fuck around with calls. So I set a limit order for just above the ask at that time, hoping for a last minute run-up. Didn't happen and it looked like my order didn't get executed, but I just shrugged and figured I'd get another chance in a couple days.

So today I get in and I'm freaking out because I see things dropping fast. I log in and... don't have any options. I checked my history and it seems my limit got hit yesterday. At 4:12pm. Wha? Is Scottrade just reporting the time that the trade was 'settled' or can option limit orders still execute past market close? (just a 3.5% gain btw).
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
So this is a little bizarre -

Bought SPY calls yesterday. ETF options are fun! The volume is nuts compared to what I'm used to so those things really move fast. Later in the day I get nervous about holding because I knew retail data was coming today and didn't want to fuck around with calls. So I set a limit order for just above the ask at that time, hoping for a last minute run-up. Didn't happen and it looked like my order didn't get executed, but I just shrugged and figured I'd get another chance in a couple days.

So today I get in and I'm freaking out because I see things dropping fast. I log in and... don't have any options. I checked my history and it seems my limit got hit yesterday. At 4:12pm. Wha? Is Scottrade just reporting the time that the trade was 'settled' or can option limit orders still execute past market close? (just a 3.5% gain btw).
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Weird. I've never traded ETF options but I've never heard of equity options trading after hours. All my open orders always get cancelled when the market closes. Maybe it's different with ETF options? You may want to call them to get the facts because that could hurt you one day!

Anyways, I'm totally out of my puts now. I am now up 80% for the year so far. I was up 110% in February, lost ground, up 100% in April, lost ground, now up 80%. Can't get past 100% for some reason.
 
K

kathode

Member
thegreyfox said:
What spy calls did you buy? I want to see if it shows up on thinkorswim's chart.
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SWGGL, the July $90 call. Sold at $4.95. It's $3.90 now! I assume it executed right at the last minute and I didn't see it, and Scottrade is just reporting the verification time or whatever. Might call later today. They're pretty friendly there.

Edit: Nice username! :D
 
K

kathode

Member
Zhengi said:
So I bought C shares at $3.06. I'm trying to decide whether or not to bail on it now or wait it out. Any suggestions?
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I personally wouldn't sell out on such a down day. Also, they appear to have had a bullish MACD crossover today. Plus Schaeffer's is reporting high call volume on them. All good signs.
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
So when I said I sold all my put positions I meant I sold them all with the exception of WFMI, which was on the cusp of being sold. I had to leave this aft to take my dog to the vet and didn't put a sell order in. I thought, even if they guide in line tonight the stock has had a huge run so there probably won't be a big reaction. I GET HOME TO FIND THAT THEY FELL 10% TOWARDS THE CLOSE AND NOW HAVE RALLIED 7% IN AH. FUCK!
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
CGT cutting 10% of workforce, 700 employees total. Didn't see that one coming.
 
K

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
So when I said I sold all my put positions I meant I sold them all with the exception of WFMI, which was on the cusp of being sold. I had to leave this aft to take my dog to the vet and didn't put a sell order in. I thought, even if they guide in line tonight the stock has had a huge run so there probably won't be a big reaction. I GET HOME TO FIND THAT THEY FELL 10% TOWARDS THE CLOSE AND NOW HAVE RALLIED 7% IN AH. FUCK!
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Nice, you were almost owned by your dog.

I bought C and IBM calls yesterday. IBM took a dive a little while ago. C doing fine but not getting much price movement in the calls.

My portfolio is hovering around 60% gain since I got back in the game in March. I was around 80% but I dabbled with a penny picker service and got walloped on one to the tune of a 30% loss. That'll learn me.
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
Nice, you were almost owned by your dog.

I bought C and IBM calls yesterday. IBM took a dive a little while ago. C doing fine but not getting much price movement in the calls.

My portfolio is hovering around 60% gain since I got back in the game in March. I was around 80% but I dabbled with a penny picker service and got walloped on one to the tune of a 30% loss. That'll learn me.
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yeah, I bought IBM yesterday (stock) and was stopped out this morning.
 
K

kathode

Member
Sigh, my C calls were up to .89 while I drove into work. Would've been 20% for me. Been on a downtrend all morning though, even as the market rose.

Thinking the time to buy puts might be coming soon. Not sure if it's today though.
 
K

kathode

Member
I'm out of calls for 10-15% gains. I was considering holding but the S&P is starting to read as oversold for the short term and I'm wondering if 900 might be ceiling resistance now whereas it was floor just a week or so ago.
 
Z

Zyzyxxz

Member
hopefully today starts another short rally.

I'm thinking I'm gonna be getting into Ford again since the prices are probably gonna get as low as they are for now.
 
M

Meier

Member
Really think Sprint is going to take off once the Pre's release date is announced tomorrow. I hope it's June 7th and not the other rumor of 10 days or so later after iPhone 3.0 is public.
 
O

Ovid

Member
Are we going to have another holiday rally? Everytime we head into a three day holiday we rally. Well, that's what I've noticed since Black Friday last year.

What is up with FDO. This stock has fallen over $4 since I bought it a few weeks ago. Why is it always down when the markets are up? We still are in a recession, right? Geez...
 
K

kathode

Member
I opened up some small starter put positions in TSN, FISV, and CVH. Interesting to note, I read today that the Dow has flipped between positive days and negative days for 11 days straight now. We'll see what happens tomorrow!
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
I opened up CVH.
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Me too, but I fucked up. It's a holiday here in Canada so I was kind of off today. I spent some time with the wife, went to get flowers, did gardening, etc. So, on one hand, my longs are all up like 7% over the last week which is good. I noticed CVH was overbought this morning before we went to the gardening store so I put in what I thought was a pretty conservative limit order. CVH wasn't doing much, only up around .60% at the time. I didn't even think to check the computer during the day because I figured it wouldn't even get hit. Then about 3:50 I check the computer and the market is up 3% and CVH is up 3% and I got filled... and am down 10% on the position :lol
 
K

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
CVH wasn't doing much, only up around .60% at the time. I didn't even think to check the computer during the day because I figured it wouldn't even get hit. Then about 3:50 I check the computer and the market is up 3% and CVH is up 3% and I got filled... and am down 10% on the position :lol
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Yeah kind of a weird thing, CVH jumped up right around 2:30. I was debating buying anything at all today but finally decided to go in for small positions with about 10 minutes left to close. Wish I had waited that long to sell my calls. I was out of them before noon.
 
T

tehrik-e-insaaf

Member
Hey guys

I originally posted this in the Game Earnings thread, would love to get your thoughts:

Hey guys I don't know how many of you are in the hedge fund/investment management industry - but I run a pretty large portfolio for some clients and just thought I'd share my thinking around how I size up earnings/financial results. Obviously I don't want to get too technical with the earnings since there are thousands of ways to interpret it, so let me just be brief and speak on specific operational issues. I'd love to get some feedback from anyone here who actually knows what they are talking about (fanboys please don't comment if you don't know what a balance sheet is or what liquidity means).

I just opened a massive short position on ATVI and a massive long position on ERTS

ATVI balance sheet = crap - they have 9 billion in assets labeled as Goodwill based on the reverse merger with Blizzard, unfortunately the forward P/E on the merger valuation Goodwill is based on valuations from pre-September levels at the peak of media tech cycle. ATVI was essentially cashless prior to injection by Vivendi, they are burning through cash at a ridiculous rate even despite beating revenue projections by 40% - most of their spending is towards rehashing existing product lines, majority of their R&D spend is not for new products meaning they will be caught in a CAPEX trap in another year and may need to raise cash/debt

Further, despite Modern Warfare 2 overhype and likely positive reception for Starcraft 2 in Q4/Q1 2010, current forward earnings place too much weight on Guitar Hero. Analysts attributing per-SKU revenue for GH at 2007 and 2008 levels, but how many people are going to repurchase instruments and other crap all over again? Even if you account for DLC which is expanding, earnings will need to go above and beyond to achieve justified valuations relative to other competitors.

Goldman calls it a "conviction buy" based on "solid technical momentum" - every stock they label a conviction buy has historically tanked in 3-6 months.

Proof is in the pudding - ATVI beat revenues by 40% to Street estimates, and the stock struggled to break technical resistance points because of balance sheet game ATVI is playing.

ERTS on the other hand shows similar cashflow levels, they sufficiently burned through most of their new product R&D spending (unlikely to be caught next year and can rehash product cycle again) and have written down significant amounts of goodwill to account for post-crash market (Pandemonium was completely written off and spun off to reduce costs). Further, they have Star Wars MMO coming up which may not be popular globally, but will create stable revenue streams for the company and allow it to establish a foothold in the online MMORPG space that it was previously missing. ERTS also has the most expansive and efficient distribution network and will be publishing id's Rage, and has a deal in-place with Valve now for product distribution.

Other positions I have -

SHORT NINTENDO (7974.OSA) (upward pressure on Yen currency will screw up actual delivered earnings for Q2/Q3/Q4, risk probability of weak winter product lineup to effect sell-through of console in Japan, revival of PS3/PSP in Japanese market to affect margins especially if response is price drop)

LONG TAKE-TWO (TTWO) (solid product portfolio lineup, high-margin earnings from future DLC for GTA4 userbase, little to no debt meaning, excellent cash position, resolved accounting problems, at <$1B valuation to be target of speculative take over rumors meaning sell when reaches 30% upside target to current prices)

UBI is the only other player I am really interested in, but it's difficult to forecast how their games will perform given critical reception has been crap for their past few products but they sold decently well. However most retailers have been negative on their upcoming products given so much AC1 product had to be sold at massive discounts and UBI didn't rebate anything to them. On the other hand there are rumors that UBI may be the target of a hostile takeover by someone like Disney which could destroy any short position. I am staying away for now.
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R

Ramune

Member
My friend took me to this seminar 2 days ago from a company called Investools. They specialize in teaching and couching you about investing and you use their website which has all sorts of tools in addition to classes and online videos to aid in the learning process. I'm wondering if anyone here has had experience with them. Now right now they are letting you sign up for $299 (previously I heard reports on upwards to $1K-3K), and according to one person who was sitting next to me, she and her husband are trying it again since it's cheaper than what was offered before.

I just want to know before I step into something I might regret.
 
J

Javaman

Member
Ramune said:
My friend took me to this seminar 2 days ago from a company called Investools. They specialize in teaching and couching you about investing and you use their website which has all sorts of tools in addition to classes and online videos to aid in the learning process. I'm wondering if anyone here has had experience with them. Now right now they are letting you sign up for $299 (previously I heard reports on upwards to $1K-3K), and according to one person who was sitting next to me, she and her husband are trying it again since it's cheaper than what was offered before.

I just want to know before I step into something I might regret.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that if you're going to be using their tools, it's probably going to cost far more then $300 over the short/long term.
 
T

TheKingsCrown

Banned
tehrik-e-insaaf said:
Hey guys

I originally posted this in the Game Earnings thread, would love to get your thoughts:
Click to expand...

I disagree with you on ATVI. That stock is a buy, plain and simple. While the market may put too much earnings weight on guitar hero, I believe it places too little on the 3 Starcraft 2 titles coming out. Additionally, the assets under the umbrella on ATVI are second only to Nintendo / Square-Enix, and maybe a couple other studios. They are extremely well positioned in the industry and will continue to be. This should overwhelm any balance sheet issues that arise.
 
K

kathode

Member
Zyzyxxz said:
The market is up to 8500 but none of my bank stocks are moving, so where is all the movement today?
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There's some positive and negative data competing today. Annoying for just about everyone :)
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Man, I hope justice is served to those who leaked the BAC deal and to those who tried to the to dump the stock towards the close and in AH.
 
Z

Zyzyxxz

Member
RSTEIN said:
Man, I hope justice is served to those who leaked the BAC deal and to those who tried to the to dump the stock towards the close and in AH.
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dang what happened?

I was hoping to buy in below $11 and now its up in after-hours when it was like 10.50ish earlier today.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Solars rallied a lot today (8% on average or so). Due to rising oil prices. STP was up 7%. They are very volatile.

Other than that, no news for me.
 
P

Pimpwerx

Member
I'm new to stocks, but even I can see that fishy movement on BAC. I wish I had it on my watch list still. Is anything going to be done? PEACE.
 
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