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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

As said pretty much everything is down today, for fear that consumers are cutting back on spending. I've been looking at ATVI for little while, they were down enough for me to think it was a good time to jump, planning on holding and seeing how this fall turns out. I'm a skeptical about THR, Band Hero and DJ Hero (is that still even coming this year, i'll have to check) but I think MW2 and the continued whoring of GH will do something positive.

I'm still researching and employing different strategies with my investing, trying to see what works and what doesn't.


Does anyone have any opinions about Gamestop? The way I figure it if any videogame companies are going to benefit this fall GameStop will also benefit too, if not more because of used game sales. Their financials seem fine, and the outlook on their future looks solid too with them planning on opening a few hundred more stores and still generate a good cash flow.
 

vpance

Member
Treasury sales are on this week and going into the next as well. Probably best to steer clear until after. Drops seem to have been coinciding with the bond sales in the past few months, more or less. Which is expected since they need to push them. Last week sure was a nice bull trap.
 

Ovid

Member
Ninja_Hawk said:
Does anyone have any opinions about Gamestop? The way I figure it if any videogame companies are going to benefit this fall GameStop will also benefit too, if not more because of used game sales. Their financials seem fine, and the outlook on their future looks solid too with them planning on opening a few hundred more stores and still generate a good cash flow.
I don't like GME's cash flow. Consumer spending is down I wouldn't expect big numbers from them.
Follow the link: U.S. Video-Game Sales Fall for Fifth Straight Month
 
Ah, I figured sales had something to do with it being the Summer and there usually aren't any major releases or anything. I didn't know there was a big increase around this time last year, thanks for that.
 

Ovid

Member
Alot of the big titles that were supposed to be released at the end of the year have been pushed back and will be released next year.
 

Ether_Snake

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I'm quite long term on ATVI only because of Blizzard, but there has been occasions where I felt like selling. I don't trust the management much anymore, because of the following:

1- Tony Hawk's piece of plastic junk. Makes absolutely NO SENSE for a skateboard. Guitar makes sense, but next thing you know EA would sell plastic skates for a hockey game.

2- Blur. They completely screwed up with that one, hype did not pick up at all and it was predictable. The game has disappeared since and I don't think there is much they can do to save it unless they send it back to the drawing table. They should have done everything they could to capitalize on the past success of PGR.

3- Letting go of Ghostbuster. Development costs were probably not that astronomic. Could have been a good one-hit deal like Prototype, which will do no better in the long run, I see no sequel potential for that game.

4- Singularity. W.T.F... The least marketable game I've seen in quite some time (in the same basket as Capcom's Dark Void), now sent to the slaughter to be release in early 2010. That game will sell as much as Bionic Commando.
 

Ovid

Member
So it looks like Sony bowed to the pressure of Activision and other video game publishers by dropping the price of the PS3.
 
Ether_Snake said:
I'm quite long term on ATVI only because of Blizzard, but there has been occasions where I felt like selling. I don't trust the management much anymore, because of the following:

1- Tony Hawk's piece of plastic junk. Makes absolutely NO SENSE for a skateboard. Guitar makes sense, but next thing you know EA would sell plastic skates for a hockey game.

2- Blur. They completely screwed up with that one, hype did not pick up at all and it was predictable. The game has disappeared since and I don't think there is much they can do to save it unless they send it back to the drawing table. They should have done everything they could to capitalize on the past success of PGR.

3- Letting go of Ghostbuster. Development costs were probably not that astronomic. Could have been a good one-hit deal like Prototype, which will do no better in the long run, I see no sequel potential for that game.

4- Singularity. W.T.F... The least marketable game I've seen in quite some time (in the same basket as Capcom's Dark Void), now sent to the slaughter to be release in early 2010. That game will sell as much as Bionic Commando.

The fact that they used company cash flow to buy lots of ATVI shares while the executive management sold lots of ATVI shares at the same time is reason 5, no?
 

kathode

Member
20% on the nose today with SLE calls. 20 cent contracts! The Scottrade interface does a double take when you order 100 options contracts :) Nobody does it like Sara Lee!
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
20% on the nose today with SLE calls. 20 cent contracts! The Scottrade interface does a double take when you order 100 options contracts :) Nobody does it like Sara Lee!

I bought SLE stock yesterday. I don't like puts/calls with stocks <$10. How's the West Coast trading treating you?
 

Ether_Snake

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tarius1210 said:
So it looks like Sony bowed to the pressure of Activision and other video game publishers by dropping the price of the PS3.

Bah Kotick knew as well as we all did that the Slim and a price drop was coming. The guy just wants to flex his invisible muscle.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Interesting look at past panics/recessions. The main takeways are 1) the current rally is exhausted and 2) two years after each rally the market didn't really move a whole lot so risk/reward isn't that great at this juncture.

recovery.PNG
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
I bought SLE stock yesterday. I don't like puts/calls with stocks <$10. How's the West Coast trading treating you?

It sucks to be honest, although I'm still getting settled out here. Just got internet hooked up at the new place last night. For the few trades I've made so far, I basically just have to do my research overnight, and then put in a limit order in the morning and hope that it goes my way. I'm much more busy at the new job than I was previously, so I have a lot less time to research or track trades during the day. Most days I'm out to lunch or in a meeting at market close. Just gotta get used to it and find a rhythm that works I guess.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
kathode said:
It sucks to be honest, although I'm still getting settled out here. Just got internet hooked up at the new place last night. For the few trades I've made so far, I basically just have to do my research overnight, and then put in a limit order in the morning and hope that it goes my way. I'm much more busy at the new job than I was previously, so I have a lot less time to research or track trades during the day. Most days I'm out to lunch or in a meeting at market close. Just gotta get used to it and find a rhythm that works I guess.

bah I can't even wake up in time for the market to open so I just mess with trailing limits though sometimes that screws up on me.
 

Ovid

Member
Gamestop (GME) reports earnings tomorrow morning. The street is looking for 28 cents. I can see GME meeting that but not it exceeding by much since there weren't any big titles released this quarter.
 

Ovid

Member
GRAPEVINE, Texas (AP) -- GameStop Corp., the world's largest video game and entertainments software retailer, posted disappointing fiscal second-quarter results on Thursday and lowered its full-year earnings forecast, citing fewer hit video games and cautious consumers. Shares tumbled in morning trading.
GameStop said it earned $38.7 million, or 23 cents per share, for the period ended Aug. 1. That was down 32 percent from $57.2 million, or 34 cents per share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a profit of 28 cents per share.

Sales fell nearly 4 percent to $1.74 billion, while same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, fell 14.1 percent.

GameStop CEO Daniel DeMatteo said in a statement that "due to the effects of the recession and strong prior year comparisons, the video game industry experienced a sharp decline in consumer spending during the quarter."

The company said delays in the release of new titles, including "Bioshock 2," "StarCraft II" and "Splinter Cell: Conviction," have hurt its full-year outlook.

GameStop now expects fiscal 2009 earnings of $2.40 to $2.64 per share, down from a previous estimate of $2.83 to $2.93 per share. Analysts were looking for a profit of $2.76, on average.

For the third quarter, GameStop projects earnings of 27 cents to 33 cents per share, and for the fourth quarter $1.47 to $1.65 per share. Analysts expected per-share earnings of 41 cents and $1.65, respectively.

GameStop shares dropped $1.20, or 4.8 percent, to $23.98 in morning trading
Wow, five cents off. Down 6%.

SIRI up 13% today. It is currently trading at 68 cents with huge volume.
 

Tarazet

Member
kathode said:
People have been saying UNG is oversold since it was in the high $14's. I'm staying far away from that one after getting burned listening to the hivemind. As one stocktwits user put it - "I could say a cow farted and added to supply and $UNG drops 2 pts." It likely is oversold but it's way too unpredictable for my tastes.

Yeah, I'm still holding my short position on the calls. I currently have buy-writes open on C and UNG (Jan 2011 calls) and LYG (Jan 2010 calls). The LYG set isn't treating me very well, but I'm counting on a dividend to make money on it, anyway. The C set will basically make money unless they get zeroed out. Natural gas may not see $4 again for a while, futures just went below $3 for the first time since the 90's. If UNG stays below $14, fabulous. Free money for me. If it doesn't, it's still free money for me. At any rate, it's not going to become worthless.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
tarius1210 said:
One minute we're headed for a correction and the next minute we're in another bull rally.

seriously after that bad monday I thought we were going on a downward trend.

Gah this market has me always surprised.
 

sefskillz

shitting in the alley outside your window
Expected YGII to do more on those earnings. Tough afternoon for SIRI, but still loving it lately... in from .39 this time!
 

kathode

Member
In for puts on MO and MRK. I had orders in for a couple others as well but the limits didn't get triggered. Turn over, market, you jerk!
 

Ether_Snake

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Nikkei up over 3%.

Also interesting:
Market plunge makes Beijing’s exit harder

Note that this is from the same columnist as last time, so she might have some sort of bias. But it makes a lot of sense to me, and shows that China is next in line to experience the real impacts of the crisis. Of course, the US still hasn't seen the most of the impact either, considering how misplaced its actions have been.
 

alejob

Member
I shouldn't have sold when I did a week ago, I should buy but it will come back down for me right?

I'm playing banks btw.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
alejob said:
I shouldn't have sold when I did a week ago, I should buy but it will come back down for me right?

I'm playing banks btw.

For C there is major support at $4 and in the long run there is a still a huge upside.

BAC - hard to tell I have sold out at 17 before and gotten back in lower, its still suspect to bad news

FNM/FRE the boat is starting to move on this one IMO
 

DogWelder

Member
Zyzyxxz said:
FNM/FRE the boat is starting to move on this one IMO
Both are up big again (although it is early). I'm a bit disappointed I unloaded some on Friday, luckily I kept more than half.

Edit: GXS.V is up again, too. -_-
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
I bought some more puts today after I saw the morning pop fade. China is down 3.50% right now and the SP500 futures are down a bit. China's correction hasn't stopped the US from steamrolling over every single short seller out there so we'll see what happens tomorrow. We may have had a key reversal day today (new high followed by selling, finishing lower). These types of moves historically signal that the current trend is weakening. I'm still very long...
 

Ether_Snake

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RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Well, well whaddya know... entire world down last night but SP futures ascend to heaven once again :lol
 

Tarazet

Member
UNG Jan 2011 $14 calls are going at 2.35. UNG is at 11.63. So people are paying $235 for the chance to pay a $237 (16%) premium over the current price in 16 months? Buying an investment that won't break even unless the shares go up over 40%? Wat? That option is going to collapse.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Interesting... same exact pattern as yesterday. Pop in the morning and at 1:00 the market hits an invisible wall and loses half a percent in 5 minutes.
 
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