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[mckmas8808]

Bulls gotta take charge here but they're not. I'm cutting some longs. We briefly popped over 1007 but now we're down at around 1004. Bought some more puts. Still very long but getting nervous.

Why are you getting nervous?

 

[Relix]

Why are you getting nervous?

Frankly... it's obvious that at a point soon it's gonna break down. It will not sustain itself this high, especially with the high oil prices and the fluctuations of the dollar. One of them will make the market fall at least for a day or two. I am also killing some longs, shorting certain stocks and doing short term trading.

 

[RSTEIN]

Why are you getting nervous?

Well, I'm not nervous to the extent that I'm net short or anything. I'm just letting go of some of my longs. Adding a few puts. We're at overbought levels. People are panicking to get on the gravy train. This morning was dicey. But now we're solidly above the 1007 level which is good. The line of least resistance is still up. Markets can stay overbought/oversold for long periods tho!

I hold a core SPY position and if the SP500 breaks 1000 then it's gone which is about 20% of my portfolio.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Frankly... it's obvious that at a point soon it's gonna break down. It will not sustain itself this high, especially with the high oil prices and the fluctuations of the dollar. One of them will make the market fall at least for a day or two. I am also killing some longs, shorting certain stocks and doing short term trading.

its nervewracking for me since I dunno if we are seeing recovery or just another one of those rallies waiting to dip down again.

 

[alejob]

Stock market, it's like stealing candy from a baby. Now sell your shares boys!

 

[kathode]

Back in the game, son! Got myself some NKE and HD puts.

 

[reilo]

I've been saving up some money and was thinking about investing it, but this thread has me a little discouraged at how complicated this can seemingly get :lol

I think I'll come back when I know what's going on.

 

[Javaman]

I've been saving up some money and was thinking about investing it, but this thread has me a little discouraged at how complicated this can seemingly get :lol

I think I'll come back when I know what's going on.

You don't need to get into anything complicated. Investing can be as simple as opening up an IRA or contributing to your 401k through an employer.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

I just got out of BAC @ 17.02!

Getting back in Monday when it probably will dip into low 16's.

I've been saving up some money and was thinking about investing it, but this thread has me a little discouraged at how complicated this can seemingly get :lol

I think I'll come back when I know what's going on.

play long positions that are safe bets, in fact I would daresay if you are patient like 5-10 years time, invest a bunch into Citi as their stock is still at the bottom, but do your own research first and never trust what anyone else says unless you truly believe it yourself.

 

[Ovid]

play long positions that are safe bets, in fact I would daresay if you are patient like 5-10 years time, invest a bunch into Citi as their stock is still at the bottom, but do your own research first and never trust what anyone else says unless you truly believe it yourself.

You love C don't you? Did you sell or are u still holding?

 

[Ether_Snake]

Rio Tinto Spying Cost China Steel Industry $102 Billion, State Agency Says

Looks like China will try to do anything it can to get lower prices. I knew about this case before I bought some RTP. But whatever, we'll see if I have a chance to sell or if it all comes crashing down sooner than expected

 

[AlexMogil]

Rio Tinto Spying Cost China Steel Industry $102 Billion, State Agency Says

Looks like China will try to do anything it can to get lower prices. I knew about this case before I bought some RTP. But whatever, we'll see if I have a chance to sell or if it all comes crashing down sooner than expected

CNBC was big on Rio about four months ago.

Huh.

 

[RSTEIN]

Gonna have a weak opening. Let's see if anyone buys the dip at the open as per the last 2 weeks.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

You love C don't you? Did you sell or are u still holding?

I've been shorting it in the past but for a long term hold I don't see why not since compared to BAC its still in its bargain bin prices of late Q1 but that's just my opinion.

I'm very optimistic that we aren't seeing a long term recession and its my belief that there is no reason we shouldn't stat seeing signs of recovery eventually so thats where my faith in a long position in C comes from.

 

[painey]

So today I decided to jump back into the stock market and bought 2360 shares of RBS at 44p each

http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:RBS

I'm looking for a 50% interest in the long term.

 

[kathode]

Got out of NKE puts for 20% today. Still holding HD puts. They were up but not enough.

 

[RSTEIN]

Got out of NKE puts for 20% today. Still holding HD puts. They were up but not enough.

He's back from the dead thanks to his magical regenerating health!

 

[DogWelder]

Time to get on the FRE/FNM hype train?

 

[yoopoo]

FRE up 148% today :lol

I bought it too late...only went up 39% for me :/

 

[Ether_Snake]

STP up 4% today. Would be nice if China went ahead and became a world leader in green energy. It would give a nice kick to the groin of the US and its lobbyists who are holding back the economy.

Suntech to be biggest panel maker in '09

LOS ANGELES, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (STP.N) will overtake Germany's Q-Cells AG (QCEG.DE) as the world's largest producer of solar panels this year, according to a report issued on Monday by industry research firm iSuppli.

Suntech, Japan's Sharp Corp (6753.T), and China's Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd (YGE.N) and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd (JASO.O) are defending their market positions by continuing to increase production "as if a recession had never occurred," iSuppli analyst Henning Wicht said in a statement.

Meanwhile, producers including Q-Cells, U.S.-based SunPower Corp (SPWRA.O) and Britain's BP Solar (BP.L) have cut output or expansion plans in response to a massive oversupply of solar panels and cells that is driving down prices.

"Those suppliers that have reduced or made adjustments to their production of cells and panels as a result of the softening demand have seen their short- and mid-term strategies falter," the report said.

Nearly half of all solar panels made in 2009 will not be sold this year due to the solar supply glut, iSuppli said.

Total solar panel production will rise to 7.5 gigawatts (GW) this year, up 14.3 percent from last year, the report said. However, only 3.9 GW of solar installations will take place in 2009.

"This inventory glut will have a long-term impact on the solar business, with panels set to remain in a state of oversupply until 2012," Wicht said.

The group blamed the supply glut on the decision by Spain, which accounted for half of all solar installations in 2008, to roll back government incentives for solar power.

iSuppli cut its solar panel production forecasts for 2009 through 2012. After that, Wicht said "fast-growing demand for solar installations will be able to absorb global panel production and inventory." (Reporting by Nichola Groom; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)

Once again Asia is going to take the lead.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Time to get on the FRE/FNM hype train?

why did it jump today?

 

[zero_suit]

STP up 4% today. Would be nice if China went ahead and became a world leader in green energy. It would give a nice kick to the groin of the US and its lobbyists who are holding back the economy.

Suntech to be biggest panel maker in '09



Once again Asia is going to take the lead.

Oh well. With the way things are in America at the moment, we don't deserve to be the leader.

 

[DogWelder]

why did it jump today?

FRE jumped because of their earnings report; a small quarterly loss (positive net income before dividend). FNM is just piggybacking. Both will climb out of their hole eventually.

 

[RSTEIN]

If we break 1,000 today and hold there then 20% of my portfolio is being sold.

 

[RSTEIN]

Just bought 1,400 S to play the $3.50 area. If it breaks that I'm out. I'm risking $100 for $500. Not a bad deal.

 

[mckmas8808]

If we break 1,000 today and hold there then 20% of my portfolio is being sold.

Why? You don't think we deserve to be this high?

 

[RSTEIN]

Why? You don't think we deserve to be this high?

It's not a question of what I think. I'm just looking at my numbers and for the past week I've been selling stuff and adding puts. 20% of my portfolio is SPY which I bought at 880. 1,000 is an important level. We're overbought here. I'll take out my SPY position if we break 1,000 but then rebuy it if we break out through 1,000 again.

 

[kathode]

Got out of my HD puts for just a smidge under 10%. It just didn't get the momentum I was looking for, and I don't want to be in any long-term put holds with all the hopium that's been flying around. Actually forgot to put a limit order in this morning when I got up. I had to call Scottrade from the gym parking lot and get an order in. Damn this west coast trading!

 

[Ether_Snake]

CAE up 6.5% on earnings, new president.

 

[RSTEIN]

Fuck you Canadian dollar!

 

[Ether_Snake]

Seriously, go down!:|

 

[stormer]

how come you guys don't convert to USD and avoid the currency factor?

 

[Ether_Snake]

how come you guys don't convert to USD and avoid the currency factor?

I am in Canada. If I buy US stocks, I convert the cash needed into USD and buy the stocks. Months later, when I want to sell, the US dollar has fallen, and CAD risen. As a result, if I sell at this point I make very little money back.

If I buy Canadian stocks then it doesn't matter since I pay in CAD.

Right now the USD is getting way too weak. Not surprised, I said it before; if the economy "recovers" then the USD will fall because people will take the breathing opportunity to get rid of it and diversify.

 

[RSTEIN]

Right now the USD is getting way too weak. Not surprised, I said it before; if the economy "recovers" then the USD will fall because people will take the breathing opportunity to get rid of it and diversify.

Right now the USD and SP500 are linked so intimately... like I've never seen before. Take this morning for example. The market goes down and we have the CAD/US exchange at around 1.09. Then the market recovers and before I refreshed my currency screen I said to myself "1.088" and yup there it was. Then the market surged and I said to myself "1.085" and that's where it was. I can tell you exactly where the dollar is just by looking at the SP500.

The one thing that will kill this rally is a US dollar rebound... which I've been saying for a while. Marc Faber in an interview with CNBC just said the same thing. He's expecting a USD rebound which will kill the rally. We saw the market check back on Tues on a strong dollar. Yesterday the market tanked after the fed announcement as the dollar spiked. Then the dollar corrected and the market rally resumed.

EDIT: lol, just looked at the futures and noticed they eased... thought OK, 1.0865 and that's exactly where the dollar is :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

I see the USD as reactionary; if the markets go down it goes up (demand of a "safe" haven), if the markets go up it goes down (getting rid of them while it's still time, to diversify).

 

[stormer]

I am in Canada. If I buy US stocks, I convert the cash needed into USD and buy the stocks. Months later, when I want to sell, the US dollar has fallen, and CAD risen. As a result, if I sell at this point I make very little money back.

If I buy Canadian stocks then it doesn't matter since I pay in CAD.

Right now the USD is getting way too weak. Not surprised, I said it before; if the economy "recovers" then the USD will fall because people will take the breathing opportunity to get rid of it and diversify.

oh I thought your issue was completely different ie) not being able to hold USD inside RRSP's..

 

[Ether_Snake]

Looks like China is getting hooked on the same drug the US was on. During difficult economic times, it is always tempting the take the road that leads to temporary wealth creation. Note that this is a Reuters columnist opinion.

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009/08/14/chinas-banks-running-hard-to-stand-still/

Chinese banks are like enthusiastic runners on an accelerating treadmill. The weakening economy means poor lending decisions are threatening to catch up with them, but the banks are sprinting ahead by expanding their loan books ever faster. They cannot keep this up for ever.

For now things still look fine. China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) this week claimed that Chinese banks were managing credit risk sagely, pointing to record low non-performing loan ratios. Given the massive increase in the number of loans outstanding — up 24 percent since the start of the year — it’s not surprising that the proportion of them that are non-performing at large commercial banks, which accounts for 60 percent of the lending, has declined from 2.4 percent to 1.8 percent in the past six months.

Chinese banks appear to be focusing their lending on regions which have suffered the most in the crisis. The five regions that have shown the largest increase in new loans are the ones that were hit hardest by the downturn, namely coastal cities such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong, plus Beijing. These are also the regions that have experienced among the slowest growth this year. This suggests that loan growth is being driven by official policy rather than the product of bankers seeking the most attractive investment opportunities.

Chinese banks had double-digit NPL ratios before Beijing cleaned them up in preparation for their listing on foreign exchanges. Foreign banks with risk management expertise were brought in, and offered cheap stakes in Chinese institutions to encourage them to share their knowledge. This led to an improvement in lending standards as Chinese banks installed expensive computer databases and formed central credit offices.

It is not clear however how deeply these reforms have been entrenched. The banks remain very decentralized and lending standards are generally lower than their foreign counterparts.

In the past few years, Chinese bankers were restrained by the regulator from going on lending sprees. Banks were given lending quotas to prevent the economy from overheating. This year, with growth the main concern, there were no ceilings.

Chinese banks have clearly now opened the flood gates and are taking on more credit risk. The chief banking regulator Liu Mingkang said at a closed-door meeting in Tianjiin this April that the maximum Chinese banks should lend out a year is 6 trillion yuan ($878 billion), anything above that would be deemed as risky. During the first half alone, they lent out a whopping 7.37 trillion yuan ($1.08 trillion).

The current NPL statistics are irrelevant. The test for Chinese banks will come in the next 2 to 5 years, as the latest wave of lending shows its worth. True, many infrastructure loans seem to have implicit government backing, but less come with strong underlying cashflows. Instead of celebrating the record-low NPLs, the regulator should take it as a worrying sign that Chinese banks are now running hard to stand still.

In theory what they are doing is not a bad thing, but humans easily fool themselves at the sight of an illusory way out.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Tonight:

Foreign Direct Investment in China Falls 35.7% on Global Economic Slump
Asian Stocks Fall as Japan Growth Misses Forecast, U.S. Confidence Drops
Pork Plummeting 30% Signaled in Futures as Swine Flu Cuts Chinese Imports
Banks May Reach Point of No Return as Toxic Loans Exceed 5% of Holdings

And the USD keeps falling.

Also a good article: Weak consumer spending will last for years

When debt levels are enormous, as they are right now in the United States, an economic downturn becomes existential for a great many forcing people to reduce debt. Recession lowers asset prices (think houses and shares) while the debt used to buy those assets remains. Because the debt levels are so high, suddenly everyone is over-indebted. Many are technically insolvent, their assets now worth less than their debts. And the three D’s come into play: a downturn leads to debt deflation, deleveraging, and ultimately depression. The D-Process is what truly separates depression from recession and why I have said we are living through a depression with a small ‘d’ right now.

Secular inflation will be non-existent

Therefore, the problem is a lack of demand for loans not a lack of supply. The Federal Reserve can print all the money it wants. But, if there is little demand for more indebtedness, it is not going to have the desired effect of permanently reflating the economy – although it can create bubbles.

The corollary of this is that inflation will be non-existent on a secular basis. For the increase in liquidity to feed into consumer price inflation, people have to actually buy more stuff. And that’s not what happens in a balance sheet recession because people are concentrated on reducing debt and increasing savings.

Moreover, there is a huge glut of excess capacity globally now that we have had a major fall in consumption. Producers are waiting for demand to catch up with supply – not exactly the sort of situation that makes for inflation. I should point out that capacity is not fixed – it grows obsolete if unused. So, much of the investment in manufacturing capacity in China and property in America is going to have to be liquidated eventually.

Full article at the link.

 

[RSTEIN]

Tonight:

Foreign Direct Investment in China Falls 35.7% on Global Economic Slump
Asian Stocks Fall as Japan Growth Misses Forecast, U.S. Confidence Drops
Pork Plummeting 30% Signaled in Futures as Swine Flu Cuts Chinese Imports
Banks May Reach Point of No Return as Toxic Loans Exceed 5% of Holdings

And the USD keeps falling.

Also a good article: Weak consumer spending will last for years

watching Asia right now... major indices down almost 3%. SP500 futures down...

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yes saw that,.

Whatever the case, not surprised. I'm still waiting on the real bad news from China. They can't make up for the drop in demand from the US. They are the US of the 1930s.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Despite the increase in exports, economists said the nascent recovery could quickly run out of steam because domestic demand remains weak. Salaries are falling and the unemployment rate has risen to a six-year high of 5.4 percent as companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. have cut thousands of jobs.

During the quarter through June 30, compensation for employees dipped 1.7 percent, the data showed, while consumer spending edged up a tepid 0.8 percent.

"When you look at the numbers, the contrast between external demand and internal demand is as clear as night and day," said Hiroshi Watanabe, economist with Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. "With payments falling, it's really hard to expect individual spending to hold up."

[...]

Economy and fiscal policy minister Yoshimasa Hayashi warned that "risk factors" remain, including high unemployment and sluggish production.

"Production is still at a low level, and worries remain that employment conditions will worsen. So we must watch the downside risks," he said on nationally televised news.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Tonight:

Foreign Direct Investment in China Falls 35.7% on Global Economic Slump
Asian Stocks Fall as Japan Growth Misses Forecast, U.S. Confidence Drops
Pork Plummeting 30% Signaled in Futures as Swine Flu Cuts Chinese Imports
Banks May Reach Point of No Return as Toxic Loans Exceed 5% of Holdings

And the USD keeps falling.

Also a good article: Weak consumer spending will last for years



Full article at the link.

Good damn Ether, thanks for the news but what bomb you just dropped on me.

Good thing I sold out of BYD Automotive (chinese battery and electric car maker)! Hopefully it will drop back down to the $3 range!

As for the article about Weak Consumer spending lasting for years? It may be true and this may be the essential shift in consumer behavior that America has needed for years. For too long we have been a heavy consumer economy and our saving rates keep minimal. One positive that will come out of reduced consumer spending is that more Americans will save and thus more domestic capital will be available for investments and this will hopefully put us on the right path to reduce our need for foreign capital.

 

[RSTEIN]

Well, just made a small fortune on all my puts... but longs getting rocked. Sold my AMZN, continuing to slice and dice my portfolio. Go US dollar!!

 

[Ovid]

I haven't been keeping up with the markets recently and sold most of my positions on Friday. Any reason why stocks are retreating?

 

[mckmas8808]

Things are looking terrible right now. Should I make my 401k more protective and less aggressive until the fear is gone?

 

[Zyzyxxz]

I haven't been keeping up with the markets recently and sold most of my positions on Friday. Any reason why stocks are retreating?

Asia is down due to gloomy outlook for the future.
American consumerism is not looking so good.
And I dont know what else.

 

[Pimpwerx]

I haven't been keeping up with the markets recently and sold most of my positions on Friday. Any reason why stocks are retreating?

Misplaces optimism IMO. Layoffs may be slowing, but it's not like there's job growth. So there are still lots of unemployed people out there. Foreclosures seem to have slowed, and the tax credit IMO has artifically inflated home sales, for this year, but the reality will hit like a ton of bricks this Winter when sales are even worse than last year.

I can't put enough "IMO" in there, b/c I am some armchair amateur who owns a portfolio. I'm also trying to reassure myself that my ultrashort financial holdings might someday turn a profit, but I know deep-down I might have made a bad decision. Luckily, the only other thing I'm holding onto is Nintendo, and I feel comfortable with that. I'm hoping the price drops even lower on that so I can put the rest of my free cash into it as a bit of a safe haven for the holiday. I don't know how stupid that sound, but whatever. I've made enough money that I feel I can inject my opinion into the conversation again. :lol PEACE.

 

[Mudkips]

Ugh, shitty couple of days. Want more green less red.

I haven't been keeping up with the markets recently and sold most of my positions on Friday. Any reason why stocks are retreating?

It's because they're stupid. That's why everyone does everything.



I swear the finance.yahoo.com main story is bot-generated.
Here's a RegEx I made for it:

[Stocks|Markets|Wall Street]
[soar|rise|climb|hold steady|dip|drop|slam|plummet]
[as|on|due to|following report on]
[rise in|drop in]?
[consumer confidence|economic worries|fed|housing market|interest rates|unemployment]
[hold|return|persist|reemerge]?

(A ? in a regular expression means optional.)
For example, today's headline (right now) is Wall Street Slammed as Economic Worries Return. Wall Street, slams, as, economic worries, return. A bit of grammar and away you go.

It changes throughout the day and the "story" behind it is almost always copy-pasted shit from some analyst, or a video of two goobs on some cable news channel.

Not really relevant (it's finance.yahoo.com ) but it's the quickest way for me to look at my stocks without installing some plugin/addon, and that damned main story headline is always so stupid and pointless. It changes every few minutes. It can be "OMG YAY BECAUSE OF THIS", then 5 minutes later "OMG NO BECAUSE OF SAME THING".

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Good thing I sold out on all my shorts today! Now time to buy back in?

 

[Tarazet]

I'm thinking about closing out my short position on UNG calls. The shares have taken a 7% dump, and the calls have followed to the tune of about 21%. Overall, my position is negative, but if I buy to close the calls, then I'll realize a gain and then I can still sit on the UNG shares and let them turn around. Natural gas is oversold.

 

[kathode]

People have been saying UNG is oversold since it was in the high $14's. I'm staying far away from that one after getting burned listening to the hivemind. As one stocktwits user put it - "I could say a cow farted and added to supply and $UNG drops 2 pts." It likely is oversold but it's way too unpredictable for my tastes.