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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Yeah this is pretty interesting. I thought they would hold today because we actually got good news today.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
And looks like we're heading negative. Another reversal. Yuck. Market finally starting to look a bit tired. Sold my SPY. I will add again if we can break out and hold 1030. Still have lots of longs.
 

Tarazet

Member
yoopoo said:
Anyone still doing Options here...I did some quick reading here http://www.zecco.com/optionstradingeducation/Basics.aspx and I'm still utterly confused.

I'm gonna head over to http://www.investopedia.com and try to make some sense out of it.

Yes, I do options and I have an OK grasp of the concepts.

Call = one contract obligating the writer to sell 100 shares of stock at a set price on or before a set date.

Put = one contract obligating the writer to buy 100 shares of stock at a set price on or before a set date.

With either one, if you sell to open, you are writing the option and you get the moneys, while holding the stock (or not, if you're a baller). If you buy to open, you are buying an option.
 

vpance

Member
Buy call - you think the stock will rise
Sell call - opposite

Buy put - you think the stock will drop
Sell put - opposite

The longer the expiration date the more the option will cost or be worth. I like selling options.. get the money right away. And decreasing time premiums are working for you.

Edit: Of course buying calls is the only option with potential for unlimited gains which makes it very attractive.
 
sonarrat said:
Yes, I do options and I have an OK grasp of the concepts.

Call = one contract obligating the writer to sell 100 shares of stock at a set price on or before a set date.

Put = one contract obligating the writer to buy 100 shares of stock at a set price on or before a set date.

With either one, if you sell to open, you are writing the option and you get the moneys, while holding the stock (or not, if you're a baller). If you buy to open, you are buying an option.

I was actually wondering the same thing not too long ago, I looked it up but I didn't get it. So you're basically buying and selling contracts to buy or sell stocks at a certain price within a time period. But you have have the right to, you necessarily have to. This allows you to choose whatever price to buy or sell some shares at, but you don't have to. This could allow you to buy shares at a low price when it's high, or sell shares at a high price when it's low. Is that right?
 

Tarazet

Member
Ninja_Hawk said:
I was actually wondering the same thing not too long ago, I looked it up but I didn't get it. So you're basically buying and selling contracts to buy or sell stocks at a certain price within a time period. But you have have the right to, you necessarily have to. This allows you to choose whatever price to buy or sell some shares at, but you don't have to. This could allow you to buy shares at a low price when it's high, or sell shares at a high price when it's low. Is that right?

Yes. Or you can sell the contracts.. the safer way of doing this is to buy the shares and write a call against them (because you've already bought the shares you're contracted to sell), or hold enough cash to buy the shares at the strike price and write a put (because you can't be asked to pay more than the contract price). If you don't do this, then it's called writing naked calls and puts, which is extremely risky.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
tyguy20204 said:
Are we finally going to run out of steam soon?

People have been calling for this rally to end since it started. Several here on GAF earlier in the year called for the market to dive in the summer back to March lows. Professional traders and hedge funds have gone short at the slightest sign of weakness only to have their asses handed to them every single time the market looks like it wants to roll over. This market is unbelievable. This is one of the strongest rallies you will ever see in your lifetime.

I don't make any calls on the market. I let the market tell me what to do and it says be long. That being said, I've taken many of my positions off the table the last 2-3 weeks (I was too early to take profits on most, that's for sure). I've also been adding puts the last week or so (and way too early there). Today as I saw the market roll over after a morning pop for the second consecutive day I let go my core SPY holding (11% of my portfolio). We had very good news this morning and yesterday but the market couldn't hold on to its gains. The market no longer rallies and holds after good news. That's telling you something. People are fading the rallies and using them as an opportunity to sell.

1030 for the SP500 for me is the key number. I won't add back my SPY position unless we can hold above the number with some conviction. On a pullback I'll be adding on the long side if we get some stocks retest their 50 day moving averages.
 
Ok, guys so i've been doing more research and i'm considering trading options, I was led by my brokerage firm to read this book that apparently all investors are supposed to regarding the risks of option writing and holding. I looked at a few chapters of it and I think I got the gist of some of the risks, basically just making sure you have the money to cover whatever option you are writing, there may be stuff i'm missing but that's what I got out of it.

I was just wondering if there was a simpler, more condensed version of that book or someone could explain the most important things about it. 'Cause as I was reading it I was just thinking, "do all investors really read ALL of this", and is it hard to get into because it sounds simple but going through that book and the warnings from my broker kind intimidated me. :(
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Ninja_Hawk said:
Ok, guys so i've been doing more research and i'm considering trading options, I was led by my brokerage firm to read this book that apparently all investors are supposed to regarding the risks of option writing and holding. I looked at a few chapters of it and I think I got the gist of some of the risks, basically just making sure you have the money to cover whatever option you are writing, there may be stuff i'm missing but that's what I got out of it.

I was just wondering if there was a simpler, more condensed version of that book or someone could explain the most important things about it. 'Cause as I was reading it I was just thinking, "do all investors really read ALL of this", and is it hard to get into because it sounds simple but going through that book and the warnings from my broker kind intimidated me. :(

The only real risk you need to know about is that you can lose everything you have in about 5 minutes.
 

yoopoo

Banned
Still trying to understand options:

Lets try this example: Say I have 100 shares of FRE, at a current price of $2.00. And I 'Sell to Open' with strike price of $3.00 - exp date of 9/19/09

What happens if the price does reach $3.00+ by 9/19?
What happens if it doesn't reach $3.00?
 
yoopoo said:
Still trying to understand options:

Lets try this example: Say I have 100 shares of FRE, at a current price of $2.00. And I 'Sell to Open' with strike price of $3.00 - exp date of 9/19/09


What happens if the price does reach $3.00+ by 9/19?
If the buyer of the options contract exercise his right to buy the stock at $3.00, that will force you to sell at $3.00.



What happens if it doesn't reach $3.00?
The contract will be worthless and you won't be forced to sell.

Bookmark this options calculator. It will help you understand how price/time/volatility affect the price of a contract.
http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/OptionCalculator.aspx
 

yoopoo

Banned
Alright make sense....but using that same example, how much net profit do I stand to make?

FYI: can't access that calculator right now...on a limited net access.
 

Tarazet

Member
yoopoo said:
Alright make sense....but using that same example, how much net profit do I stand to make?

FYI: can't access that calculator right now...on a limited net access.

You stand to make $1 per share, plus whatever you got paid for the premium. The thing is that if FRE goes up to $100, you still only make the same amount. So when you buy-write, you amplify your returns, but only up to a certain point. If it goes up too fast, then you've missed out on potential gains.
 
But I only lose as a holder the premium paid for the contract and as a writer if I write a call for say a stock to be 30$ but it drops to 25$ I have to pay that extra five bucks per share, and if it expires nothing happens to anyone except the holder who doesn't get back the premium, right?
 
If you write a call at a strike of $30, that just means that you are selling the stock at $30 only.

Nobody would bother to exercise the contract(buy at $30) if the stock goes under $30 because the market would be selling it for under $30($25 in your case). So the writer would just pocket the cost of the contract.
 
thegreyfox said:
If you write a call at a strike of $30, that just means that you are selling the stock at $30 only.

Nobody would bother to exercise the contract(buy at $30) if the stock goes under $30 because the market would be selling it for under $30($25 in your case). So the writer would just pocket the cost of the contract.

Oh right, I meant to say to put at $30.
 

Tarazet

Member
thegreyfox said:
If you write a call at a strike of $30, that just means that you are selling the stock at $30 only.

Nobody would bother to exercise the contract(buy at $30) if the stock goes under $30 because the market would be selling it for under $30($25 in your case). So the writer would just pocket the cost of the contract.

Yes. And there are different ways to play this. If you write an out of the money contract (stock is currently $25, and you'll sell at $30), you want the stock to stay in the range between 25-30 and never get exercised. If it goes too low, then you won't get exercised, and the premium will cushion the blow some, but you've still lost money.

If you write an option that's deep in the money - say the stock is $30 and you offer to sell it for $10 - then you benefit the most if the stock goes down. Then you can buy out the option at a much lower price to close the position and wait for the stock to recover, and in the meantime, you've been getting dividends at a level you wouldn't have been able to afford otherwise.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
I can feel it coming over me
I feel it all around me
I’ve been waiting for this moment all my life
it's my destiny
There's a fire deep inside of me
it's waiting to come out now no matter what,
no matter how,
I know I'll make it through somehow
cuz when the road feels too long
Ill still be holding on
I'm gonna keep on going,
I know I'll be strong

Indestructible
I wont let nobody break me down
Indestructible
 

avaya

Member
my portfolio for August has been

Long RBS
Long Freddie
Long Citigroup
Long AIG
Long MBIA
Long Alcoa
Long Honeywell
Short Natural Gas Future
Short Sterling/Yen
Long GDF Suez
Long Banco Santander
Long Eon
Long Gas Natural
Short Intuitive Surgical

August was very good.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Dow does it again. Up for 8 straight sessions. This is the best run for the DOW since April 2007.
 

Ovid

Member
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Investors are still trading common shares of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc. by the billions, even though analysts say their prices are almost certain to go to zero.

All three are majority-owned by the government and are losing huge sums of money. The Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators lack authority to end trading of stocks in such "zombie" companies that technically are alive -- until the government takes them off life support.

Shares of the two mortgage giants and the insurer have been swept up in a summer rally in financial stocks. Investors have been trading their shares at abnormally high volumes, despite analysts' warnings that they're destined to lose their money.

"People have done well by trading them (in the short term), but when it gets to the end of the road, these stocks are going to be worth zero," said Bose George, an analyst with the investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.

Some of the activity involves day traders aiming to profit from short-term price swings, George said. But he said inexperienced investors might have the misimpression that the companies may recover or be rescued.

"That would be kind of unfortunate," he said. "There could be a lot of improvement in the economy, and these companies would still be worth zero."

The government continues to support the companies with billions in taxpayer money, saying they still play a crucial role in the financial system.

Fannie and Freddie buy loans from banks and sell them to investors -- a role critical to the mortgage market. They have tapped about $96 billion out of a potential $400 billion in aid from the Treasury Department.

Officials have said AIG's failure would be disastrous for the financial markets. Treasury and the Federal Reserve have spent about $175 billion on AIG and AIG-related securities. The company also has access to $28 billion from the $700 billion financial industry bailout.

But analysts say the wind-down strategies for the companies are almost sure to wipe out any common equity, making their shares worthless.

"There are some folks that believe that somehow that 20 percent (of the stock) that's out there in the public market might be worth something someday," said Daniel Alpert, managing director of the investment bank Westwood Capital LLC. But he said the three companies are doomed because they are "massively indebted," and the values of their assets are declining.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Investors-trading-3-stocks-apf-3151182490.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

You see articles like this scare the shit out of me. That's why I stopped trading FRE, FNM and AIG last year. But then I see the huge run up these stocks have had since I'm like what the hell. People have been saying the same thing about Citigroup and now it's trading at 5 bucks.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
tarius1210 said:
CAE over $8.

Ether_Snake, you may break even soon.

I'm still down 22%. My shares are priced at $10.89:| I wish I had bought more when it was much lower but didn't have enough money at the time.

At least I am now even on HON, RTP, and TTWO (which should be worth more if it wasn't for the USD and CAD being so close now). Same for my ATVI shares. Down on CGT, BHI, STP.

Now I'm wondering if I should prepare to just get rid of anything that breaks even. They are markets I don't really understand. But I think I'll just keep everything. Might get rid of HON when if it rises enough. The rest I think I could keep for some time. I'm not sure really. I'd be fine selling most of the above, except for ATVI, TTWO, and CGT. I want to have less money in stocks.
 

yoopoo

Banned
I think I'm going to try Options trading on a virtual stock site before I jump on the real thing.

Some advice needed: So I want to do a covered call on LYG, how would you choose which bid price to pick? Would you go for high bid and low strike or low bid and high strike?

call.jpg
 

nib95

Banned
I gained 50% return a few weeks back on PXS and IFL. Sold off for a profit, and recently bought back in. Hoping to make a bit of money with short term gains (riding the weekly/monthly highs and lows) before going in for the long term. But you never can tell these days. Lot of market recovery conjecture but nothing actually substantial.
 

Javaman

Member
It's certainly been a crazy couple of months!

In this chart I set the buy prices from the peak on Oct 12, 2007. It's going to be a while before we get back there again.
1zph0xt.jpg




This one is from the bottom and obviously looks much better. These are pretty useless without my cost basis, but I like to use them to compare how the funds have been weathering the drop and recovery compared to the indexes.
33mtvs4.jpg


I can't believe how close today was. Altogether my funds are down roughly 0.00000295% :lol
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Disney buys Marvel! MVL up 25%.

You can kiss that "Disney interested in buying EA" rumor good bye now.
 

Ovid

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Disney buys Marvel! MVL up 25%.

You can kiss that "Disney interested in buying EA" rumor good bye now.
It's funny. I walked into work today and my co-worker says "Sell your stock, your rich. Disney just bought us. I'm like "What the hell are you talking about". I always watch Bloomberg TV before I leave for work and I didn't see anything about an acquisition. So I checked my e-mail and it turns out all of us recieved a letter from Disney's CEO. I'm like "What the fuck?". I never knew we were an acquisition target.

As a Marvel employee and as a shareholder I am so torn on this deal.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
tarius1210 said:
It's funny. I walked into work today and my co-worker says "Sell your stock, your rich. Disney just bought us. I'm like "What the hell are you talking about". I always watch Bloomberg TV before I leave for work and I didn't see anything about an acquisition. So I checked my e-mail and it turns out all of us recieved a letter from Disney's CEO. I'm like "What the fuck?". I never knew we were an acquisition target.

As a Marvel employee and as a shareholder I am so torn on this deal.


That's crazy. So does that means some of you guys will be fired?
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
Shit I'm taking a bet with Ford and their August Sales release numbers, I'm 1000 shares in 7.8 and hopefully I'll be out tomorrow.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Damn, BHI dropped almost 10% today after announcing that they'll acquire BJ Services. :|

Now that DIS is not gonna buy ERTS, the next potential buyer in line would be MSFT I think, but I don't see them doing that. Would be a bad move, they don't need a weight on their shoulders.
 

Ovid

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Damn, BHI dropped almost 10% today after announcing that they'll acquire BJ Services. :|

Now that DIS is not gonna buy ERTS, the next potential buyer in line would be MSFT I think, but I don't see them doing that. Would be a bad move, they don't need a weight on their shoulders.
I really thought DIS would buy THQI or COOL.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
That wouldn't be impossible. ERTS is just too big though after buying MVL. I doubt it on COOL though, but THQI could be possible. But whatever the case, it is unlikely in the near future now.
 

kathode

Member
My puts refused to go down today. The DOW was down 90 and my puts were both in the green. So aggravating.

Also, for RSTEIN:

3343v2r.jpg
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
:lol Thanks. I think it's a great move for both DIS and Marvel. Financially, it's not really accretive for DIS in the near future but the upside is huge. Movies, rides, animation, publishing, internet, etc.

I sold my SPY position last week as the SP500 broke 1030. I also have been selling my winners in anticipation of some sort of correction from these overbought levels. Puts have been really frustrating. Volatility isn't really moving and some of these tech stocks are monsters. I added two new positions today SNC.TO and FN.TO. I have 56 longs, 2 shorts, and 9 puts.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
One thing that is bad for Disney in this deal is that it keeps making them even more reliant than ever on the entertainment sector. It's not too bad, but it's more of the same to them. It's basically 4B in buying IPs like Spider Man, Wolverine, etc. Feels more like an attempt to prevent someone else from buying them, someone that would be more diversified by buying Marvel and hence that would then start eating away seriously at Disney. It makes sense for them to buy Marvel, but it's a bit of "oh I wish I invented Spider Man, but I guess I'll buy him".

Then again I think that outside of Pixar, Marvel is all that Disney will really have that's worth anything under their belt in the end.
 
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