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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
esc said:I owe it to RSTEIN that I sold all my finance shares last week. Thanks, you saved me like 10 grand!
(I was going to hold them longer until I read one of your posts about a pullback).
It had to be done.
Ether_Snake
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TTWO up 3.75% after Q3 results.
Ubisoft up 4% on no news, maybe as a result of TTWO earnings.
Ubisoft up 4% on no news, maybe as a result of TTWO earnings.
Dang, UNG under $10. Down 25% since I did my buy-write. As a result my short call position is up 42% (price to cover is down to 1.70 from 3.30). If I had seen this coming I would have written an in the money call, but the stock has to stay below $14 until Jan 2011 so we'll see. My portfolio is getting hammered on paper, but everything is going in the direction I want it to. Down.
RSTEIN said:
lol. Played for about 3-4 hours straight on Saturday running back and forth going nuts finding the last few items. Turns out two of them are in rooms with other stuff and the map is a complete fail at showing them. So I ran back and forth over and over killing guys trying to find them.
Ether_Snake
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Look at that:
TTWO was up 7.78% today.
And now in after hours? -7.21%
What a joke.
EDIT: Oh I think this is actually wrong.
TTWO was up 7.78% today.
And now in after hours? -7.21%
What a joke.
EDIT: Oh I think this is actually wrong.
Ether_Snake
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Why would anyone sell at almost 8% less?
I need advice, i have a friend who's wanting to enter the stock market, and he wants me to join. Basically he wants us each to put in £50 and buy shares of Nvidia, because he's convinced when they announce the new 3xx series of gpus the stock prices will shoot up again.
So what does stock-gaf say? y/n?
So what does stock-gaf say? y/n?
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
Isn't their Tegra platform like 100x more important than their enthusiast video cards?Cindres said:
Let me think aloud for a minute, GAF.
So I have three buy-write positions open. Two of the short calls were far out of the money anyway, and the stocks have gone significantly up. In this position, would it be a good idea to swap for a call at a higher strike price? It's solidifying losses in terms of the option premium, but it's also solidifying gains in the stock value, so in essence it's a neutral play that changes strategy.
Seeing how I don't want any of my options to get exercised, ever, and I just want to make my money off of time premiums, swapping a low strike short call with a low time premium for a high strike short call with a higher time premium appears to make sense. So I'm going to crunch numbers.
I bought 200 shares of C and wrote 2 calls, $2.50 Jan 2011 against it. The time premium then was 0.52. Now it's 0.42, which means I've gained $20 worth of time premium. I can switch to higher strike calls which have a better time premium.
Scenario 1: Keep Jan 2011 $2.50 calls (currently 2.66, I sold short at 2.12)
Scenario 2: Swap for Jan 2011 $5.00 calls (currently 1.48)
Scenario 3: Swap for Jan 2011 $7.50 calls (currently 0.88)
For ease of math, I'll say that the swap to Scenario 2 will cost me $250 and the swap to Scenario 3 will cost me $400. I'll list the total amount of money I will get at the end, minus the charge I'm taking to take a loss and swap options, at each potential closing price.
Stock closes at $0.
Scenario 1: $424
Scenario 2: $46
Scenario 3: -$224
Stock closes at $3.
Scenario 1: $924
Scenario 2: $646
Scenario 3: $376
Stock closes at $6.
Scenario 1: $924
Scenario 2: $1046
Scenario 3: $976
Stock closes at $9.
Scenario 1: $924
Scenario 2: $1046
Scenario 3: $1276
Sounds like I should stick with the position I've got. My gains are capped at 9%, but my potential losses are much less. If I get the $7.50 calls and Citigroup goes under, then I will have paid extra to lose more money. And the potential gains are not enticing enough to want to take on the downside risk.
OK. Carry on.
So I have three buy-write positions open. Two of the short calls were far out of the money anyway, and the stocks have gone significantly up. In this position, would it be a good idea to swap for a call at a higher strike price? It's solidifying losses in terms of the option premium, but it's also solidifying gains in the stock value, so in essence it's a neutral play that changes strategy.
Seeing how I don't want any of my options to get exercised, ever, and I just want to make my money off of time premiums, swapping a low strike short call with a low time premium for a high strike short call with a higher time premium appears to make sense. So I'm going to crunch numbers.
I bought 200 shares of C and wrote 2 calls, $2.50 Jan 2011 against it. The time premium then was 0.52. Now it's 0.42, which means I've gained $20 worth of time premium. I can switch to higher strike calls which have a better time premium.
Scenario 1: Keep Jan 2011 $2.50 calls (currently 2.66, I sold short at 2.12)
Scenario 2: Swap for Jan 2011 $5.00 calls (currently 1.48)
Scenario 3: Swap for Jan 2011 $7.50 calls (currently 0.88)
For ease of math, I'll say that the swap to Scenario 2 will cost me $250 and the swap to Scenario 3 will cost me $400. I'll list the total amount of money I will get at the end, minus the charge I'm taking to take a loss and swap options, at each potential closing price.
Stock closes at $0.
Scenario 1: $424
Scenario 2: $46
Scenario 3: -$224
Stock closes at $3.
Scenario 1: $924
Scenario 2: $646
Scenario 3: $376
Stock closes at $6.
Scenario 1: $924
Scenario 2: $1046
Scenario 3: $976
Stock closes at $9.
Scenario 1: $924
Scenario 2: $1046
Scenario 3: $1276
Sounds like I should stick with the position I've got. My gains are capped at 9%, but my potential losses are much less. If I get the $7.50 calls and Citigroup goes under, then I will have paid extra to lose more money. And the potential gains are not enticing enough to want to take on the downside risk.
OK. Carry on.
Now I want to do the same exercise for UNG. I have actually gained money on the option I have against it, so if I'm feeling super bearish, I can short it some more. Let's see what will happen at various strike prices. Shares are currently at about $9.
Scenario 1 (current): 100 shares long, 1 $14 Jan 2011 call short (1.50, sold for 3.30)
Scenario 2: Swap call for $10 Jan 2011 call (2.25) - $50 extra cash
Scenario 3: Swap call for $5 Jan 2011 call (4.50) - $270 extra cash
Closing price $5:
Scenario 1: $830
Scenario 2: $880
Scenario 3: $1100
Closing price $10:
Scenario 1: $1330
Scenario 2: $1380
Scenario 3: $1100
Closing price $15:
Scenario 1: $1730
Scenario 2: $1380
Scenario 3: $1100
So there's really no situation that can be improved by Scenario 2, and with a $1340 stock basis, Scenario 3 ensures that I lose money no matter what happens. The only way I can make it worthwhile for me is to hold and wait for natural gas prices to come back up.
Scenario 1 (current): 100 shares long, 1 $14 Jan 2011 call short (1.50, sold for 3.30)
Scenario 2: Swap call for $10 Jan 2011 call (2.25) - $50 extra cash
Scenario 3: Swap call for $5 Jan 2011 call (4.50) - $270 extra cash
Closing price $5:
Scenario 1: $830
Scenario 2: $880
Scenario 3: $1100
Closing price $10:
Scenario 1: $1330
Scenario 2: $1380
Scenario 3: $1100
Closing price $15:
Scenario 1: $1730
Scenario 2: $1380
Scenario 3: $1100
So there's really no situation that can be improved by Scenario 2, and with a $1340 stock basis, Scenario 3 ensures that I lose money no matter what happens. The only way I can make it worthwhile for me is to hold and wait for natural gas prices to come back up.
Cindres said:
LOL.
He's better off starting a Lemonade stand. Sorry to be so harsh but if you're friend was smart enough to turn 50 into 100 and then that 100 into 200 in the short term he would be smart enough to know he should be playing with more money.
I'd say 500 minimum, 1000 recommended to start.
Right now I'm playing with 16,000 and barely making any return on the short term so if he wants some decent money he should start doing his homework.
tarius1210 said:
Unfortunately I had to eat my losses, sold out on Tuesday because I was expecting it to hit over 8 but the sales numbers were good and not phenomenal.
The fucking wall street analyst screwed things up by setting expectations to 33% sales increase over last year in August and it only rose 17%.
How the hell did they think it was gonna raise 33% when the program had limited cash! Also the pullback in China didn't help either. I feel the Wall St guys were propping it higher just to let it fall so they could get in on it.
Either way I jumped out since I feel this was the only chance for it to get near $9 again for a while. If it goes under $7 again I may go back in but right now Fannie Mae is looking like a very good short term return. I only bought 2000 shares of it but I'm thinking I should have bought a couple thousand more.
tarius1210 said:
so does this mean the stock price will be diluted? Also this should mean there probably won't be a reverse stock split right?
Cindres said:
It's great that you have an interest in the stock market. Hopefully your first investment will start you on a long and fulfilling life of saving and investing.
There isn't really a right or wrong starting amount. Jesse Livermore went to Wall Street with $1,500 (now about $15,000). He parlayed that into an immense fortune. Warren Buffett invested $100 (or thereabouts) with his sister in his first stock. His education started there and now he has $30 billion. The important thing is that you're learning.
However, beyond a learning experience, 50 pounds (or $81) simply isn't enough to really do anything. How much are your transaction fees? Taxes? If the stock goes up 30% you're looking at a $15 gross gain. Take away commissions, account fees, and taxes and it's going to be a waste of time (well, even the gross gain is a waste of time).
One option may be to start with a play money account to learn how it all works. This will wet your whistle and start the learning process. Then you can throw a couple hundred or so in a real account and start slowly. Commit to contributing to this account monthly (even a hundred or so). Then after a year or so you'll have over $1,000. Then the next year you'll have over $2,000. Then by age 60 you'll be a millionaire.
The other thing I'd like to address is your investment thesis. Again, it's great that you're learning and using your knowledge of the products you use every day to make investments. The only issue is this: everyone KNOWS that Nvidia is releasing new chips. They know that after the new chips are announced more new chips will follow. And so on and so on. Unfortunately EVERYONE knows at minimum what you know and a large percentage of people know much more (e.g. selling price, gross margin, expected sales figures, etc. etc.). Wall St. is about EXPECTATIONS. The stock market doesn't reflect the present: it is a discounting machine. It looks to the future. What I'm getting at is everyone knows that the new gpu is going to be released and therefore that knowledge is already reflected in the stock price. You need to be convinced that the new gpus are going to sell more than expectations or they have have some sort of large advantage over competitor products that nobody currently knows about. If your investment thesis is that Nvidia makes good products and is a great long term investment, then that's OK. Just don't expect some miracle 200% gain when their new chips are announced. In fact, there could be a sell off on the news!
Good luck!
esc said:
yeah I sold out and made my money.
I'm expecting a dip again on monday or tuesday and I'll probably get back in with a much larger volumne. Either way I'm not expecting this stock to head into the sub $1 days again since there seems to be more confidence since its no longer in danger of being delisted.
Right now I'm hoping support will stay strong around 1.50.
So what stocks are you guys currently holding? My long positions are:
CBAI, CAE, DELL, F, INTC, JBLU, MVL, NDN, PALM, SNDK and STEM.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I sold most of the positions that I was up at least 15%. Still up on CAE, DELL, INTC, JBLU, MVL (of course), SNDK and STEM.
My watch list (as of June 2nd):
HON, MU, JPM, CPB, KFT, T, PBG, PEP, AA, EMR, MHP, WAG, PAS, GSK, FOSL, SNE and WDC.
I never purchased any of the companies listed on my watch list.
I've been on a losing streak since purchasing and selling CIT for a loss back in July. I still kick myself for selling that stock. I could have made $10,000 if I just held it over that one weekend in July. Pretty much every purchase since then has put me in the red.
I'm thinking of taking a break from the markets until probably the end of the September when earnings season starts up again. We'll see.
CBAI, CAE, DELL, F, INTC, JBLU, MVL, NDN, PALM, SNDK and STEM.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I sold most of the positions that I was up at least 15%. Still up on CAE, DELL, INTC, JBLU, MVL (of course), SNDK and STEM.
My watch list (as of June 2nd):
HON, MU, JPM, CPB, KFT, T, PBG, PEP, AA, EMR, MHP, WAG, PAS, GSK, FOSL, SNE and WDC.
I never purchased any of the companies listed on my watch list.
I've been on a losing streak since purchasing and selling CIT for a loss back in July. I still kick myself for selling that stock. I could have made $10,000 if I just held it over that one weekend in July. Pretty much every purchase since then has put me in the red.
I'm thinking of taking a break from the markets until probably the end of the September when earnings season starts up again. We'll see.
Ether_Snake
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I'm long on
CAE, HON, BHI, RTP, TTWO, ATVI, STP
I have nothing really on my watch list right now.
CAE, HON, BHI, RTP, TTWO, ATVI, STP
I have nothing really on my watch list right now.
louis89
Member
Why is it that with some companies, say Avex:
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=TYO:7860
At the top it says
AVEX GROUP HOLDINGS INC. (Public, TYO:7860)
Which means that it's a public company and is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with the symbol 7860 right? But it doesn't display any share price information, and under related companies, it says
AVEX GROUP HOLDINGS INC. Private
?
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=TYO:7860
At the top it says
AVEX GROUP HOLDINGS INC. (Public, TYO:7860)
Which means that it's a public company and is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with the symbol 7860 right? But it doesn't display any share price information, and under related companies, it says
AVEX GROUP HOLDINGS INC. Private
?
louis89 said:
Here's some info
As for the second part of your question, under the public company umbrella are probably dozens of private companies set up for a number of reasons (mainly to reduce taxes).
For example:
Avex Group Holdings Inc. (Public)
Avex Group Holdings (Private): 99% ownership
Subsidiary 1 --> Holding company for business line X: 85% ownership
Subsidiary 2 --> Holding company for UK operations: 100% ownership
Subsidiary 3 --> Joint venture with US company: 65% ownership
So, as per the above, the public company owns 99% of the main operating company (with the original founder or another company owning the other one percent in this example). Under the private company, other private companies have been formed that control the various business units. This is a very typical Japanese structure.
So here is an amusing thought and a shocking indictment of equity valuations.
AAPL vs. MSFT
If you look at the price targets on AAPL of $200-250/share it will have a capitalisation of $180-220bn
Microsoft currently sits at $220bn with a possible peak of $250bn.
How is AAPL even remotely worth the same as a company whose pure FCFE is an order of magnitude greater and a stock which pays a dividend?
To that end how the hell is AAPL equity deemed more valuable than GOOG?
Crazy valuations, the premiums attached to AAPL are humourous to say the least.
I see CNBC are finally interviewing Anglogold Ashanti's CEO. About 2 months late.
AAPL vs. MSFT
If you look at the price targets on AAPL of $200-250/share it will have a capitalisation of $180-220bn
Microsoft currently sits at $220bn with a possible peak of $250bn.
How is AAPL even remotely worth the same as a company whose pure FCFE is an order of magnitude greater and a stock which pays a dividend?
To that end how the hell is AAPL equity deemed more valuable than GOOG?
Crazy valuations, the premiums attached to AAPL are humourous to say the least.
I see CNBC are finally interviewing Anglogold Ashanti's CEO. About 2 months late.
