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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
jamesinclair said:
Ahahaha no. As gold passes $1800 I'll keep on laughing. Silver also up over $39 an ounce today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-shoots-past-record-1800-apf-3086236447.html?x=0
Gold heading to $2500
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/brea...lYwNGUEJyZWFrb3V0QmxvZwRzbGsDZ29sZGlzaGVhZGlu
JP Morgan says $2500 an ounce gold by end of this year.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/286...-go-parabolic-and-rise-to-2-500-by-year-s-end
teh_pwn said:
You've warned me? Maybe I'm right and maybe you're wrong? And maybe just maybe I'll sell when I feel like gold has risen enough, but that sure as hell isn't right now. It's still going to go up, and if you can't see that.............well you haven't been paying attention. Because you would have said sell gold at $1000, it's a bubble, stop buying! And where would I be now? How much money would I have already lost out on? Exactly.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Oh man talk about market catalysts. First the downgrade, then rumors of a French bank going under, and now NK and SK are messing with each other again. It would a triumph if the market holds even some of yesterdays gains.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Surprised commodities went in their own direction today. S&P and NASDAQ avoided their previous lows while Dow played catch up.
spiderman123
Member
claviertekky said:
BUY TODAY SELL TOMM!! NO NO WAIT!
spiderman123
Member
Enron said:
This.
Extremely noob question, but I'm curious if, when people say 'the market will eventually rebound' they are just saying that because they refuse to accept the option that the market could never rebound and could continue to decline.
Like I said, I'm a huge noob, just want to know if there is any basis behind the statement that the market will eventually rebound.
Like I said, I'm a huge noob, just want to know if there is any basis behind the statement that the market will eventually rebound.
Large Professor
Member
If you think the DOW, S&P en Nasdaq look bad you should look at some of the European indices.
Some are barely 20% above their march 2009 lows.
Some are barely 20% above their march 2009 lows.
When looking to invest in a company, what do you guys look for? I mean say you want to invest in oil. [sarcasm]Do you go to google and type what oil company will make me rich?[/sarcasm]
Or do you guys invest in random companies that seem like they will do good?
Yeah can't word my sentence without making me look stupid.
Or do you guys invest in random companies that seem like they will do good?
Yeah can't word my sentence without making me look stupid.
SlipperySlope
Banned
Tenck said:
I'm subscribed to a stock picking service myself that does small cap stocks. They give out their detailed recommendations, and I research and pick from there. Each of their recommendations has a detailed write-up, valuation projections, etc. Each one also has a message board so I can interact with other members of the community to see if it is the right fit for me.
SlipperySlope
Banned
As the markets decline, they are speeding up their purchases. Usually they do one or two a month.
On 8/9 however, they issued six purchases (they use a real-money portfolio).
Those were in:
Bio-Reference Labs, Buffalo Wild Wings, Darling International, Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Movado, and Under Armour.
Me personally, I'm in a waiting pattern right now until stocks dip a little lower, then I'll make my decision. I already owned stock in Buffalo Wild Wings and am unsure if I want to increase my stake (it's my biggest stake at the moment). I was considering Under Amour as their growth rates are just awesome, but their P/E is a little high for my tastes.
Basically I look at the recs, and search for things I don't like. If I find a few things I don't like, I pass. If I don't immediately find anything I don't like, then I'll delve into the details myself and then hit up the boards.
I particularly love companies that have zero debt.
I also try to be industry diverse. I don't hold more than two stocks in a single industry.
On 8/9 however, they issued six purchases (they use a real-money portfolio).
Those were in:
Bio-Reference Labs, Buffalo Wild Wings, Darling International, Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Movado, and Under Armour.
Me personally, I'm in a waiting pattern right now until stocks dip a little lower, then I'll make my decision. I already owned stock in Buffalo Wild Wings and am unsure if I want to increase my stake (it's my biggest stake at the moment). I was considering Under Amour as their growth rates are just awesome, but their P/E is a little high for my tastes.
Basically I look at the recs, and search for things I don't like. If I find a few things I don't like, I pass. If I don't immediately find anything I don't like, then I'll delve into the details myself and then hit up the boards.
I particularly love companies that have zero debt.
I also try to be industry diverse. I don't hold more than two stocks in a single industry.
spiderman123
Member
unomas said:
You know what, I did some research and though historically it will show that gold prices tend to max out less than $3000. It will pull back from time to time but the trend will prob be upward. Most economies ( INCLUDING DEVELOPED) are in massive debt because to pay it off it need to use austerity measures that are required to repay the loan. Looking at a social perspective any cuts in the provided services will lead to increase disenfranchisement and increased panic.
The U.S gov't proposed to reduce debt by $2.5 Trillion over the next 10 years but there budget deficit of over $1.5 Trillion per year will raise the debt from $14.5 trillion to $20 Trillion by 2020 based on CBO projections. TO ADD to this there is interest. Every Year the interest on the debt rises till soon a significant percentage of the budget will be used to pay it. So since the U.S and Europe are in for lack of a better word in an economic shitstorm. There is no real solution to the problem except massive devaluation of currencies by printing money on a massive scale ( which they already are). The price of Gold will continue to rise ( and fall) but rise beyond the $3000 dollar mark.
I could be wrong and they take extreme austerity measures but I don't think it will happen anytime soon.
Large Professor
Member
Tenck said:
Steady growth, durable competitive advantage, low debt.
I for one have not forgotten 2008/2009. Back then everyone was selling because the world was going to end. It turned out to be an excellent buying opportunity.
spiderman123 said:
The United States economy is insanely productive. That isn't the problem.
I hardly think that hyper inflation is the answer. That would cause the government to become unstable, and likely would result in the new government or anarchists without much to steal your gold and property. Hyperinflation is the kind of stuff that lead to Nazism in Germany. The Nazi government didn't just take property and shit away from Germans, but they even were looting museums across the world to create super Nazi museums. Your gold isn't safe in this scenario. There is no benefit to chaos economically.
As the economy recovers income will increase, and taxes need to be raised on the wealthiest from 15% on capital gains to at least 40%. Military bases in Germany, Japan, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc all need to be abandoned which would save trillions over the next decade. Social Security should be bumped to 70 years.
The debt against GDP % wise isn't as high as post WWII, yet we recovered just fine. It's because back then we had proper tax rates and a lot less bloat with military and social programs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USDebt.png
Gold still just sits there. It's only intrinsic value is fear and jewelry. It has been and will be raped by other forms of investments long term.
http://www.uncoveringalpha.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/long-run-stocks.gif
unomas said:
So when do you know when to sell? The problem with bubbles and investing in something for no other reason that a popular belief is that once the avalanche starts, you aren't getting your money back for decades or as in the South Sea Bubble never.
This is called market timing. And it's a bubble because the perceived value of gold is way higher than what it's worth. It's just material. It can't do anything. It can't run a profit. It's just there.
You can do whatever you want. I said I warned you just to keep my conscious clear while you rave about how much you're putting in gold.
spiderman123
Member
teh_pwn said:
I agree because when looking at it from a historical perspective but I understand but this, this isn't the 1930's. There is a HUGE difference between society back then and society now. There is practically a demand for most of these services are EXTREMELY high given the level of long term unemployment, poverty etc.
I agree that we need austerity measures, a high tax rate on relatively stable income earners as well as increasing CG tax but IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. It based on how the current system is created, comparing the system ( social, economic, political especially financial) back then to now there is a significant difference. If government were to employ these measures, there will be severe backlash socially and politically to the point of economic stagnation.
edit: the growing debt and interest on debt is what concerns me the most but covering that within 10 years will not be realistic. That is why the 10 year price of goal will exceed over $3000
spiderman123 said:
The government doesn't have a choice. It's going to get more and more expensive to borrow money. Once the money dries up the leeches (lobbying businesses) will flee.
How are tax increases on the rich and modest reductions in social programs and huge reductions in military spending less acceptable than "oh, by the way your total annual income can't buy an apple"?
spiderman123
Member
teh_pwn said:
Yah, but this won't happen anytime soon. I am basing my projections on a 10 year analysis. It is impractical to think that they will cut their debt immensely within 10 years, they will take measure step by step but the COMBINED measures will not be experienced at full efficiency until after 10 or 15 years. Till then the price of gold will continue up. I will not say it going reach $10,000 but I know it will surpass $3000
teh_pwn said:
And US will never go through the growth they had after WWII to pay down their debt. Their only chance is to inflate their way out or default. The government was projecting 5% GDP growth for next 10 years that was suppose to reduce debt by 2.5 trillion. Good luck with that projection.
rage1973 said:
Growth isn't needed to cut spending and increase taxes.
The nominal, non-inflation adjusted total debt slowly declined after world war 2:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/USDebt.png
Find one instance in all of history where gold keeps going up.
This idea that we're done with 15% tax rates on the wealthy, military bases all over the world bleeding money, 20 year social security programs that were originally designed for the final years of life is so ridiculous that I'm done talking about it. Disagreeing is fine, I just don't see this topic going anywhere.
What happened in the 1980s is Reagan economics.
The market cannot keep falling indefinitely. It may fall much further before it rebounds, it may take two days or ten years, but eventually it always ends up bouncing back. When it falls too low, buyers will always emerge and restore a higher price to some degree.dpatel304 said:
A scenario such as the one you describe requires economic trouble such that virtually no company is able to turn a profit for an extended period of time. And even then, even if prices remained depressed, the ever-increasing supply of money would bring prices to rise again if only to keep up with inflation.
But that's a hypothetical scenario based on controlling factors we can't actually control in real life. In the end, the best explanation for the market's erratic behavior is anthropologic: humans are emotional beings, and we base everything we do on these emotions. We hear bad news? Fear takes over, people sell and markets drop. But good news is always somewhere in between the bad news, and that good news inspires confidence that will drive the markets higher. And that is true even in the most dire situations, in good times and bad times. The market will never keep going in the same direction constantly because our feelings don't stay the same all the time. It's only as wild as we are.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
1- Interest rates won't be high because raising them will lower demand. Interest rates rise when demand is high. Interest rates work in the same way that prices work, there is no difference between both, just different terms used. Interest Rates = Prices. They are the same, they respond in the same way. Some attempts may be made to forcefully raise interest rates, but this can only hurt the economy and hence be short-lived.
2- We will have deflation, not inflation, because we have excess production capacity: products, houses, land, factories, vehicles, PEOPLE, etc., all those things are elements of production capacity and it is found in excess considering our constrained ability to spend. We have reached that production capacity level to support an economy inflated by credit. Unless you physically destroy parts of the world, deflation will be stronger than inflation. This proves #1: low interest rates will remain because it will help in softening deflation.
3- Debt cannot be repaid. The economy was shaped according to society's ability to spend, which was shaped by excessive access to credit. To rebuild the economy to the level it was at previously without re-creating the conditions that supported that level, while cutting spending and reducing the standard of living of the citizens by cutting services, is impossible. Hence attempts to pay off the debt shrinks the economy and preserves excess capacity or increases it. So debts will not be paid off. Attempts to do so will be made, as is currently the case with austerity measures, but this is counter productive and is the equivalent of using your fingers to plug holes in a wall standing in front of a stream, which only causes more pressure to build up behind the wall, eventually leading to its collapse. Since spending leads to inflation, this will again be preferred to soften deflation rather than cutting spending. this proves #1 and #2. Doing otherwise will be short-lived because it is counter-productive.
So what did we learn?
We have excess capacity to produce, excess due to constrained ability to spend.
Debt is the single element that is currently limiting our ability to spend at levels similar to those we spent at the peak of the economy.
So there are only two possibilities ahead and no other:
-We cancel debts, so that we may spend.
-Or we destroy production capacity (factories, houses, land, people), so that we are no longer in excess of our ability to spend.
This is how the Great Depression solved itself, because it was inevitable. There could have been no other possibility, except to delay the solution and worsen the situation.
And it isn't a question of what governments will chose to do. We do not chose where we go. We are ruled by the same laws that ruled us 1000, 10 000, 100 000, 1 000 000 years ago: Natural selection in the search of comfort.
To think that we can escape natural selection because the economy is the work of man, is not realizing the the economy is natural selection. Natural selection will continue and will lead us to where it can only lead us, it won't preserve what doesn't work, and it doesn't matter how much we are in disagreement over how destructive the process can be.
What cannot be sustained, perishes.
2- We will have deflation, not inflation, because we have excess production capacity: products, houses, land, factories, vehicles, PEOPLE, etc., all those things are elements of production capacity and it is found in excess considering our constrained ability to spend. We have reached that production capacity level to support an economy inflated by credit. Unless you physically destroy parts of the world, deflation will be stronger than inflation. This proves #1: low interest rates will remain because it will help in softening deflation.
3- Debt cannot be repaid. The economy was shaped according to society's ability to spend, which was shaped by excessive access to credit. To rebuild the economy to the level it was at previously without re-creating the conditions that supported that level, while cutting spending and reducing the standard of living of the citizens by cutting services, is impossible. Hence attempts to pay off the debt shrinks the economy and preserves excess capacity or increases it. So debts will not be paid off. Attempts to do so will be made, as is currently the case with austerity measures, but this is counter productive and is the equivalent of using your fingers to plug holes in a wall standing in front of a stream, which only causes more pressure to build up behind the wall, eventually leading to its collapse. Since spending leads to inflation, this will again be preferred to soften deflation rather than cutting spending. this proves #1 and #2. Doing otherwise will be short-lived because it is counter-productive.
So what did we learn?
We have excess capacity to produce, excess due to constrained ability to spend.
Debt is the single element that is currently limiting our ability to spend at levels similar to those we spent at the peak of the economy.
So there are only two possibilities ahead and no other:
-We cancel debts, so that we may spend.
-Or we destroy production capacity (factories, houses, land, people), so that we are no longer in excess of our ability to spend.
This is how the Great Depression solved itself, because it was inevitable. There could have been no other possibility, except to delay the solution and worsen the situation.
And it isn't a question of what governments will chose to do. We do not chose where we go. We are ruled by the same laws that ruled us 1000, 10 000, 100 000, 1 000 000 years ago: Natural selection in the search of comfort.
To think that we can escape natural selection because the economy is the work of man, is not realizing the the economy is natural selection. Natural selection will continue and will lead us to where it can only lead us, it won't preserve what doesn't work, and it doesn't matter how much we are in disagreement over how destructive the process can be.
What cannot be sustained, perishes.
spiderman123
Member
Ether_Snake said:
I enjoy your posts and your insight but what your suggesting is hypothetically impossible well not entirely given history but for the United States (currently). Deflation is a possibility given the current Monetary Policy however Deflation can be offset if Spending Increase , taxes are reduced ( expansionary fiscal policy) which is exactly what the U.S doing. They have to find a away to reduce Savings, Increase Investments and Increase Demand/Consumer Spending and Restoring Confidence on a fiat currency( which you have already pointed out).
Now if they cancel their debt, dollar plunges, interest rates will skyrocket, economic stagnation ( prob not even might be just plain anarchy), credibility loss etc etc
What I believe they are waiting for is that inflation will erode the real debt burden
edit: But I understand that you would rather do what Iceland did. Respectfully I don't think it will work in the U.S favor.
Large Professor
Member
TheRagnCajun
Member
Does anyone here trade on a tax-free trading account with Quest trade? How easy is it? Can you move money around easily into different securities without jumping through TFSA hoops?
planar1280
Banned
wtf is going on.
Dow Jones
11,020.89 +300.95 (2.81%)
S&P 500
1,156.19 +35.43 (3.16%)
Nasdaq
2,463.11 +82.06 (3.45%)
this is the best rollercoaster in the USA
Dow Jones
11,020.89 +300.95 (2.81%)
S&P 500
1,156.19 +35.43 (3.16%)
Nasdaq
2,463.11 +82.06 (3.45%)
this is the best rollercoaster in the USA
TheRagnCajun
Member
planar1280 said:
I think bad news is fundametally driving the market down right now. Opportunistic buying is driving the index back up, but overall I think we're zig-zagging downwards.
TheRagnCajun said:
I wouldn't quite call it easy. The problem is that different securities are traded using different platforms. For example, mutual funds and bonds are purchased on the main Questrade website, in a section dedicated to them, while stocks are traded separately on the Questrader website (www.questrader.com instead of www.questrade.com) where you have a different account name and a different password from the main website.
The two sections also don't update the amounts very often (usually once a day) meaning that if you buy bonds with the money in your account, and you buy stocks in the same day, you'll have to calculate how much you have left for yourself, otherwise the instant transaction for stock will prevent the bond transaction from going through if you don't have enough money left.
It's a mess for the most part, and it's not even because it's a TFSA. Questrade just isn't centralized at all, and the website itself isn't designed well.
TheRagnCajun
Member
RevoDS said:
So Quest trade is kind of a pain, but do I need to fill out TFSA transfer forms when moving money around (to prevent over-contribution)? Or is it because the trading account itself is registered, moving money from one security to another doesn't constitute as a TFSA transfer?
spiderman123 said:
Inflation won't help U.S. debt. Most of it is short term so interest rates will just go up. Also there's no indication that policymakers are even capable of generating inflation, and they certainly aren't willing even if they were capable.
The only two ways out are higher growth (lol), or a lack of growth provokes a crisis and default.
planar1280
Banned
TheRagnCajun said:
jobs numbers today were good
As long as the money remains in the same account, there shouldn't be any need to fill out forms. Even though they're managed separately, different securities remain in the same registered account.TheRagnCajun said:
I'm not 100% sure on this though, as I don't have the $5000 minimum required to invest in pretty much any security other than stocks. But I don't think transfer is a problem since it's all the same TFSA.
Keep in mind, however, that if you're going to do frequent trades, you shouldn't put it in a TFSA. Revenue Canada frowns on daytrading in TFSAs because it considers that it becomes a way to hide a revenue source from taxation. I can't seem to find the exact number again, but I believe they start investigating around 150 trades a year.
I know there are a lot of "gold is in a bubble" people out here, but I honestly think our current economic problems will stay with us for quite a few years, in which gold is likely to continue to rise.
There is no economic recovery in sight, no plan to repay our debt, no revenue increases for the foreseeable future, politics in Washington will likely remain as divided as ever. The financialization of capitalism has reached its peak, at least in its current form. All that shit will keep bringing mayhem to the markets in periods. I feel good about taking my chances with gold.
There is no economic recovery in sight, no plan to repay our debt, no revenue increases for the foreseeable future, politics in Washington will likely remain as divided as ever. The financialization of capitalism has reached its peak, at least in its current form. All that shit will keep bringing mayhem to the markets in periods. I feel good about taking my chances with gold.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Damn it, I made 9 good calls and 4 bad calls and those four are bringing me way down.
Large Professor
Member
Interesting article:
How to own the greatest gaming company for free
Commentary: Nintendo has a valuable brand, and library of games
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...ming-company-for-free-2011-08-11?siteid=yhoof
How to own the greatest gaming company for free
Commentary: Nintendo has a valuable brand, and library of games
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...ming-company-for-free-2011-08-11?siteid=yhoof
Biff
Member
Doesn't it bother you that anyone who follows markets even the absolute slightest bit is thinking the same thing as you?Rubenov said:
It just seems too obvious. I'm a HUGE believer in buy on rumour, sell on news, and while this isn't technically the same thing, I feel the principles still apply. Everyone and their grandma knows about gold and its importance in rough economies now.
Not to mention all the margin calls that will be occurring over the next week or so..
There's so much new (and inexperienced) money in gold now. If GS/JPM or another big player makes a play to short gold, a lot of sheep will be left to the slaughter. The average joe would inevitably panic sell.
With all that said, I'm neither long nor short gold. I'm staying out of it.
I'd rather make a play in silver 
TheRagnCajun
Member
Everyone is buying gold. Its value is driven superficially high due to that demand. If I had gold I would sell. It may continue to climb for another 6 months, and I might miss out on some signficant gains, but what are the chances of you timing its peak? When the bubble bursts, only the pros are going to get out in time, and a lot of people are going to loose money in its wake.
I think the money is better spent in company stocks.
I think the money is better spent in company stocks.