spiderman123 said:
I enjoy your posts and your insight but what your suggesting is hypothetically impossible well not entirely given history but for the United States (currently). Deflation is a possibility given the current Monetary Policy however Deflation can be offset if Spending Increase , taxes are reduced ( expansionary fiscal policy) which is exactly what the U.S doing. They have to find a away to reduce Savings, Increase Investments and Increase Demand/Consumer Spending and Restoring Confidence on a fiat currency( which you have already pointed out).
Now if they cancel their debt, dollar plunges, interest rates will skyrocket, economic stagnation ( prob not even might be just plain anarchy), credibility loss etc etc
What I believe they are waiting for is that inflation will
erode the real debt burden
edit: But I understand that you would rather do what Iceland did. Respectfully I don't think it will work in the U.S favor.
Of course, inflation could shrink the debt, and you point out an article that says this is what happened after WWII, but why did inflation happen in the first place after WWII, which led to the erosion of the debt?
Before WWII, there was excess production capacity, just like in our case. Government coffers were empty the day before they declared war against Germany, only for the situation to reserve the following day. In Canada, at the height of the depression, the mayor of Montreal told all citizens that the premier had told him the coffers were empty, yet the following day Canada entered the war, and we saw indescribable levels of production kick in, tanks coming out of the factories only to be recycled right before they left the tracks, the port was expanding every day, people were flush with cash, industry was running at full speed 24 hours a day, seven days a week, everyone was employed, men and women, etc.
The level of production capacity (excessive or insufficient) is relative to the level of demand.
In the case of WWII, the level of demand rose because of war and as a result of this production capacity tilted from excessive to insufficient.
High demand and insufficient production capacity leads to spending to raise production capacity to meet demand.
After WWII, Europe and many parts of the world were in shambles and had to be rebuilt. This, and other conditions and events during the following decades led to a continued increase in demand levels, which required spending to increase production capacity to meet said demand levels.
When I said "we either cancel debts and start spending again, or destroy production capacity", I didn't literally mean that we would cancel debt, but rather prevent debt from being an obstacle to spending. Debt is merely a value. Value is established in relation to optimal productivity cost.
Inflation is this: To run our economy at optimal levels of productivity VS the current levels of demand (meaning, levels where production capacity satisfies demand), it costs X. When the level of demand rises, the cost to remain at the optimal level of productivity VS demand will rise as well since production capacity must rise: it will now cost Y. This causes X (the previous cost associated with optimal levels of productivity VS the level of demand) to hold a lower value than Y (the current cost associated with optimal levels of productivity VS the level of demand). This is inflation. That's why a bag of chips costs more today than a few decades ago. The cost associated with production to meet the demand levels has continuously increased. This is normal, otherwise it would mean that it would be possible to satisfy rising demand without increasing production. This would be like being able to push a rock that is continuously getting heavier without using more energy. It is not possible.
So for inflation to occur the cost of optimal productivity must rise, which means demand must rise, so as to require an increase in production capacity, which will require additional spending.
Inflation is NOT a tool from the Fed's toolbox. It's not a "trick" someone can resort to. Bernankites seem to think that all they need to do to generate inflation is to spend, but without an increase in demand this is highly inefficient! It's the equivalent of throwing food at people who are not hungry in the hopes that it will make them hungrier. It's monetary-supply-side economics!
Deflation occurs when you have a cost of optimal productivity VS demand which is lower than what it was previously, and this happens when the demand level falls. Lower demand means you don't need to produce as much as before to satisfy demand, which means it doesn't cost as much as it did to have optimal productivity. Value falls. Deflation.
So two things can increase the current cost of optimal productivity VS demand:
1- Production capacity (factories, houses, transportation, people, etc.) is destroyed to the point where current production capacity reaches optimal level VS current demand levels.
2- Demand rises due to some other circumstance(s).
During WWII, production capacity went from excessive to insufficient even before anything major was destroyed, so initially demand was driven upward without massive destruction, only by the "game" of war. Basically, moving chess pieces around for the most part. That was #2. Later on, demand was driven upward due to destruction of production capacity, that was the situation #1.
All sorts of things could drive demand upward without destruction of capacity, but which way will things go?
Like I said before, this is inevitable. It is #1, or #2. Things can never go any other way. The economy is natural selection. Natural selection rules, we can't escape it, and it always catches up to us.