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[Ether_Snake]

Bunch of economists are predicting a recession after news that unemployment is up to 5% and # of new jobs is way lower than usual.

Time to carefully watch my index funds, and if domestic dips down a lot, and Europe/Pacific/EmergingMarkets do not, I'm going to rebalance.



Awesome for me.

I just started working 1 year ago, and there's so many grossly overpriced stocks on the market. Just look at Amazon.

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=AMZN

Even after taking today's hit, the P/E is fucking 103. That's fucking insane on tech stock crash levels all over again. Amazon is a great company, but it doesn't matter if you're paying that much per earning. All it takes is a little nudge in consumer confidence, and all of that artificial value comes down like an avalanche.

History is always repeated.

It happened in the 1600s, with the tulip bulb craze. It happened in the early 1800s with the South Sea Company. It happened in 1929. It happened again 1970s/1980s, when a stock just with technology in the name got you more "value." It happened again with .com. And it's happening again. People are idiots.

I'm not investing in random businesses right now, but they are taken down by the market even if they're doing good. It has nothing to do with the .com boom or the stars' alignment or anything like that, it has to do with the economy itself. There has been many signs that people are making less money, are more in debt, and hence that businesses will suffer as a consequence. That's what driving stocks down, not some sort of cyclical abstract pattern.

ArtG: Yeah, I'm just wary. I made a lot with ATVI but IMMR is earing a good chunk of my gains and because of that I'm sort of holding back and probably missing some opportunities. I'm just being careful I guess

 

[ArtG]

ArtG: Yeah, I'm just wary. I made a lot with ATVI but IMMR is earing a good chunk of my gains and because of that I'm sort of holding back and probably missing some opportunities. I'm just being careful I guess

With this market, I can't blame you for being wary. :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

Lots of talks about Tata Motors. Could be good, could be bad. Either way the stock is still rather accessible: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TTM

 

[Poody]

I probably need advice on my 401k.

Without knowing much about the market; sure i've looked at the stock tickers on google etc, but what should I be throwing my money into? At the moment, i'm vested in 100% stocks. Should I diversify my protfolio and change my investment elections to bonds, money markets? My intuition is telling me to stick with stocks.

age 24
Stock options:
captical appreciation fund
emerging markets stock fund**
equity income fund
equity index trust**
extended equity index market
growth stock fund
international equity index
new horizons fund
science & technology fund
small-cap value fund**

**are my investment elections

 

[Ether_Snake]

AKNS still going up, another 6% at this moment. Blargh!

I have to check on my 401k, I don't even know what I've been contributing to on each pay.

EDIT: Down 6% now...

 

[Ether_Snake]

Man what a terrible day. I'm never worried about my long-term stocks like CGT and ATVI, and as far as TTWO is concerned I said it before I'm keeping it till they sell the company.

But IMMR? Fuck! I was ready to sell at a loss at $14 (bought them at $17), but they sunk again today, -8.79%. Always down, every day, on no news, because it's not a strong stock, it's a hope stock. I'm down 38% on it :_(

Well damn. I'm not sure what to do anymore, I could simply hold onto it for as long as necessary, but at the same time there is little to use as reference as far as the company's future is concerned, and not a lot of news trickle in. For all I know management could be playing tennis all day long.

Still wondering if I should buy some INTC. NDVA dropped 10.33% today out of fear. AKNS (solar) dropped 6.40%. NOK (Nokia) dropped 3.61%

UN (Unilever) was up 3%

 

[Relix]

Seems I sold my Amazon stocks at the right time, right after December 28. $250 of money there. Also, I sold some Google stocks, I had bought them when at $540 or so, sold them at around 701 that same day. Another company I invested in is RIG but I haven't sold those.

I am looking for upcoming and hot IPOs. Any clues?

 

[Ether_Snake]

VISA!


Not sure when they are going public tho.

EDIT: BTW, Tata Motors were up 3.26% today. Still a cheap stock, but I have no idea of their value.

 

[ArtG]

Man what a terrible day. I'm never worried about my long-term stocks like CGT and ATVI, and as far as TTWO is concerned I said it before I'm keeping it till they sell the company.

But IMMR? Fuck! I was ready to sell at a loss at $14 (bought them at $17), but they sunk again today, -8.79%. Always down, every day, on no news, because it's not a strong stock, it's a hope stock. I'm down 38% on it :_(

Well damn. I'm not sure what to do anymore, I could simply hold onto it for as long as necessary, but at the same time there is little to use as reference as far as the company's future is concerned, and not a lot of news trickle in. For all I know management could be playing tennis all day long.

Still wondering if I should buy some INTC. NDVA dropped 10.33% today out of fear. AKNS (solar) dropped 6.40%. NOK (Nokia) dropped 3.61%

UN (Unilever) was up 3%

I'd just get the hell out of that stock. If there's nothing you can point to in the future that will make them money...what value is the stock to you?

Are you a UN owner? I'm looking to get into that stock as a defensive play. Already in MO, which has been sweet to me the entire time I've owned it. It's been rising, but I'm considering buying some more just because I believe in the company to deliver steady capital appreciation + dividend growth for the long-term. I'm already in some riskier areas (ACAS and HTE), so I'm probably going to get some UN soon if I see the price slip in this shitty market, just to bring some balance to my portfolio, which is too overweighted in those risky areas.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I want to get rid of IMMR, but not at a $1000 loss:| Haptics are only going to be more and more frequent, it's pretty much the next step as far as touchscreens are concerned, so I'm not THAT worried about it, it's just a question of how long do I have to wait. The rest of my portfolio is solid, ATVI is doing great, CGT is a stock I have 100% faith in so even if it hasn't grown it hasn't gone down either, which is nice considering the current market situation. TTWO same thing, I'm always around + or -5% on it, and I'm holding for a long time.

I bought more CGT recently, so I'm out of funds I could invest right now. But INTC and UN are two interesting ones, especially since ITNC has gone down recently. UN is a bit expensive for me tho.

EDIT: NVDA is going high at the moment, up 6.95%. Not sure why.

 

[Troblin]

I've been in Tata Motors since ~16$ back in Aug/Sept.

The stock is very cyclical. Pings between 16-21$.
I'd say that you can still get in ~17.5ish.

TTM looks like a good pick. Good P/E and PEG ratios. It ultimately depends on how well their economic $3.5k cars catch on.

 

[ArtG]

I bought more CGT recently, so I'm out of funds I could invest right now. But INTC and UN are two interesting ones, especially since ITNC has gone down recently. UN is a bit expensive for me tho.

I don't find UN expensive--I find it undervalued, honestly. Trades at one of the lowest multiples in its peer group, one of the lowest PEG ratios in the industry, growth potential, and a track record of delivering year after year. In the same boat as MO, IMO.

 

[mikeybwright]

Look for Novartis to do something big in the not too distant future, cant say why but keep an eye on it.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't find UN expensive--I find it undervalued, honestly. Trades at one of the lowest multiples in its peer group, one of the lowest PEG ratios in the industry, growth potential, and a track record of delivering year after year. In the same boat as MO, IMO.

I meant too expensive for me

 

[Troblin]

A lot of retailers...

LTD- Limited
AEO-American Eagle Outfitters

Look like absolute bargains right now trading in near single digit P/E ratios/ w/ low PEGs.

The only thing is that the house crunch is absolutely killing the retail market right now, and there's no telling when it will stop.

Also, if we hit a recession(if we're not there already), all bets are off(especially for retailers).

 

[Mr. Mister]

IMMR was a good idea about 6-12 months ago. You missed the boat and are just trying to stay above water. Just drop it mang.

 

[ArtG]

Yugh...this market is trash. That I'm even by a little over a percent for the year is a friggin' miracle.

 

[argon]

If you haven't already, it may be good idea to look at some short funds to provide a recession hedge. I have about 30% of my portfolio in TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF) and I really wish I had put more into it, as it's helped absorb a lot of the recent losses from my long positions. Other ETFs to look at are GLD (Gold trust), FDPIX (Falling US Dollar Fund) and FXF (Swiss Franc trust).

Here's a listing of some Bear market funds.

 

[Tarazet]

A lot of retailers...

LTD- Limited
AEO-American Eagle Outfitters

Look like absolute bargains right now trading in near single digit P/E ratios/ w/ low PEGs.

The only thing is that the house crunch is absolutely killing the retail market right now, and there's no telling when it will stop.

Also, if we hit a recession(if we're not there already), all bets are off(especially for retailers).

Or you could buy BRK.B, which is about $4500 a share but has an absolutely unreal P/E ratio of 0.5.

 

[Ether_Snake]

My portfolio is valued at around -0.75% or -$76.71 on around $10,000 worth of investments.

CGT is not hurting me one bit, TTWO either, ATVI is up 40.32% (which is my portfolio savior), but IMMR? -42.07%, and it's probably not done from falling.

But like I said before, it's probably stupid, but I'll keep it. It's not a big loss for me, and I bought it at a time when I knew jack shit.

As for CGT/ATVI I think I can keep them without worry, but I'm more likely to sell TTWO at any time, but right now I'm holding, I'm not worried, altho I no longer see it going to $23 as I originally expected, not in these market conditions.

Not sure what to do next. I can always buy more of CGT, but I'd like to diversify a bit. I'm just not sure at all of when to get in anymore. Even INTC, it could keep on sinking more. I'd prefer to buy again on overall markets recovery rather than now, because we may have just seen the tip of the iceberg.

 

[teh_pwn]

If you're young, have a good job, and have enough money to invest, then you should really look positively at the market right now. Prices are being corrected, and things might get really cheap if we continue into what seems to be a recession. Ride the wave back and make a ton of money.

 

[Ether_Snake]

The problem is knowing when it's close to the bottom. The only way I can tell is once markets start to recover decently, which means missing the bottom, but not buying during a freefall.

EDIT: There are a lot of falling stocks in the defense sector.

 

[teh_pwn]

The problem is knowing when it's close to the bottom. The only way I can tell is once markets start to recover decently, which means missing the bottom, but not buying during a freefall.

Right, and that's more about market timing. What I'm going to do is rebalance if and when the market hits 11,500 or so, and of course reevaluate the market before I do. I'd also jack up my 401k contribution rate. I'm not going to sell this. So even if the market goes down to 9,000, and then bounces back up in the long haul, I'm still getting a huge boost in performance. Also the contributions are every 2 weeks, not all at once.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'll have to look at my 401k equivalent. I don't even know what the heck my contributions are going into, I opened one at my job and contribute on each pay but that was close to two years ago, and I knew nothing back then (I'm still in the dark anyway when it comes to mutual funds and the likes).

Here are the defense/heavy industry/aerospace/etc. companies I got on my watch list, a lot of them are getting cheaper since last week:

Alliant Techsystems - ATK
Ball - BLL
Boeing - BA
Dassault Systeme - DASTY
Ducommun - DCO
General Dynamic - GD
Honeywall International - HON
Northrop Grumman - NOC
Orbital Sciences - ORB
Raytheon - RAY (makes of the terrible Patriot missile defense system, but it's always been spun as being efficient, so the stock made a lot of people rich anyway)
Textron - TXT
Triumph Group - TGI
United Technologies - UTX
General Electric - GE

Just pointing them out, haven't been keeping track of them in a while.

EDIT: Yamana Gold was up big time today (like a lot of other metal-related stocks), up 7.10%: AUY

EDIT: PANL was down 11.90% but is now up 14.87% in AH.

 

[Ether_Snake]

HAHAHAHAHA

BWhASjkfdhsflsdfs

IMMR dying.

:lol

/beats himself over the head

 

[Troblin]

Would you guys reccomend just accumulating cash right now?

I have ~36k in my scottrade/zecco portfolio right now and was thinking about adding to it due to the severe discounts that some of these stocks. However, some of these stocks continue to drop with no rhyme or reason, and I don't want to catch a falling knife if we do head into recession.

Currently I have ~ 5k disposable income + 6k CD maturing next month + ~2.6k a month free to invest.

Was looking to add ~another 10k to my portfolio some time in the next 3-6 months. Thoughts?

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm in the same boat as you Troblin. It's difficult to tell when we can start investing again because there's no clear sign that stocks won't keep plungin.

 

[Fuzzery]

Hey Fuzz how are you doing these days investment-wise? I forget what you're holding, if anything.

Im day trading on Zecco right now, fucking stressful AS HELL. Just watch, watch, watch, and fret haha

 

[mikeybwright]

Damn amazon....lol what was I thinking. Side note Novartis (NVS) is up another 2%.

 

[Fuzzery]

Sooo.. good companies to short, hmmm. Honestly, in times such as these, finding companies to short will be far easier, and also less risky.

 

[Fuzzery]

I wonder when BAIDU will go back up. Possibly never back to its 400 levels, but it's been dropping like a rock for an entire week straight.

Edit: Well what do you know, it's up 10 points from when I posted =\

 

[Fuzzery]

20 points now (is hitting himself on the head)

Looks to be an end of the day rally, led by tech stocks. Amazon has shot back up btw

 

[Tarazet]

Just for fun and to see what happened, I bought one of those TOUSA bonds that they missed the interest payments on. $71.50 for a $1000 face value. :lol Now it's worth $110 on the open market, but I'm waiting to see what happens when the debt goes into default next month and becomes immediately due. Comedy should ensue.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Wow, omg, umpossible, we are finishing up today!

BTW ORB (they make small rockets and such for the launch of satellites) is up today 4.75%.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Hey guys, what do you do with spare cash that isn't enough for serious investment, like ~$2k?

 

[Ether_Snake]

Hey guys, what do you do with spare cash that isn't enough for serious investment, like ~$2k?

You accumulate a bit more. 2000 is close to enough.

BTW sonarrat, care to explain what you mean?

 

[Tarazet]

TOUSA is a public builder that was well-represented in most of the bubble markets (except California). The fact that they missed an interest payment means that the full balance of the debt might become due on February 1st - meaning in theory, they would have to cough up the $1,000 face value even though I paid less than $100 for it.

Low price reflects the fact that they might have to declare bankruptcy if this happens. It will accelerate all of their other debts and I might wind up with only what they get when the company liquidates.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I see. How do you find those bonds and how do you purchase them? (I need to investopedia more)

BTW AKNS plunged almost 20% today. I'd stay away from the small solar energy stocks. It looked like a good opportunity because it's affordable but it looks like a whole lot of uncertainty too, and probably a whole lot of "hope" purchases which quickly evaporated over the past fews days.

INTC followed the markets as always today. NVDA went up 5.17% plus some in AH. RIMM is below 100 right now. PANL (very very shaky OLED stock) was up 4.92%. Rostelecom (ROS, Russian telecommunications company) was up 10.80% today. Russian stocks could be interesting this year: http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/071211/etf.html?.v=1. Then again we may have missed the boat already (check their charts)

EDIT: BTW, I've been reading on P/E ratios. If a company like HTX has a P/E ratio of 207 (industry at 20 and sector at 24), does it mean that it is ubber over evaluated? I'd presume so based on what I've come to understand on P/E rations, but I wonder why would people keep on buying if that was the case, unless there has been some excellent developments recently which caused the P/E to rise until the end of the fiscal year, where it "should" return to normal thanks to higher (expected) revenues? Just trying to understand this P/E ratio business better:lol

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[Fuzzery]

Hey guys, what do you do with spare cash that isn't enough for serious investment, like ~$2k?

I'm using 2k right now. It's enough, honestly.

Worth it to put a lot of effort into watching the market and doing research? Probably not. It's good practice though.

 

[Fuzzery]

I see. How do you find those bonds and how do you purchase them? (I need to investopedia more)

BTW AKNS plunged almost 20% today. I'd stay away from the small solar energy stocks. It looked like a good opportunity because it's affordable but it looks like a whole lot of uncertainty too, and probably a whole lot of "hope" purchases which quickly evaporated over the past fews days.

INTC followed the markets as always today. NVDA went up 5.17% plus some in AH. RIMM is below 100 right now. PANL (very very shaky OLED stock) was up 4.92%. Rostelecom (ROS, Russian telecommunications company) was up 10.80% today. Russian stocks could be interesting this year: http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/071211/etf.html?.v=1. Then again we may have missed the boat already (check their charts)

EDIT: BTW, I've been reading on P/E ratios. If a company like HTX has a P/E ratio of 207 (industry at 20 and sector at 24), does it mean that it is ubber over evaluated? I'd presume so based on what I've come to understand on P/E rations, but I wonder why would people keep on buying if that was the case, unless there has been some excellent developments recently which caused the P/E to rise until the end of the fiscal year, where it "should" return to normal thanks to higher (expected) revenues? Just trying to understand this P/E ratio business better:lol

None of the numbers, P/E especially, are that defining that you can make immediate judgments on whether a stock is overvalued or not off of them. If people are still buying it despite this, there must be a good reason for this. Possibly a tremendous potential for growth, possibly a bubble. I don't know.

Btw, apple jumped almost 10 points in the last hour of the day, that was funny :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm using 2k right now. It's enough, honestly.

Worth it to put a lot of effort into watching the market and doing research? Probably not. It's good practice though.

Yeah, better than making mistakes with more. We all make mistakes early on (see my IMMR purchase, even tho it was after my ATVI purchase, it was highly uneducated).

Soka:

Ducommun or any other defense/military/aerospace stock is best as long term investments but some are more steady than others and you have to watch them daily anyway IMO. Difficult to pick and chose really. I would do a strong analysis before investing in order to pick the right one. Like, in my case, I was interested in anyone who was into the production of helicopters for civilian use in China. After some research I found that Sirkosky (owned by UTX) is dealing in that territory in China. The reason I think civilian-use helicopters will continue to be in higher and higher demand in China is because there's a lot of business men over there and both from China and foreign ones, the country is rather large, and and you can imagine how traveling by chopper can speed things up over using aircrafts. So with that in mind I made some research and found out I was right (considering the deals, the press releases, analysts expectations, etc.) I can't afford UTX, but what I'm saying is do some good research, it can't hurt. Try to figure out what could be good business.

Basically, I like those stocks, but I prefer to look for whatever they are making that could become more popular in the civilian sector instead.

Majesco; I understand the reasoning. Could be good, I have no idea really, tough call. I'd say, take a look at how Ubisoft's own casual games have been doing (they're making a lot of them, like the Babiez and Catz and whatnot). Check their next fiscal results and see if those games have been good sellers, and if the casual segment has been good for the company or not. If not, my guess would be that the same would apply to practically the whole casual market, but it's difficult to say really. I see it as a gamble.

Yamana Gold; I have no idea really. I forget why it was even on my watch list:lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

None of the numbers, P/E especially, are that defining that you can make immediate judgments on whether a stock is overvalued or not off of them. If people are still buying it despite this, there must be a good reason for this. Possibly a tremendous potential for growth, possibly a bubble. I don't know.

Btw, apple jumped almost 10 points in the last hour of the day, that was funny :lol

K thanks for the info, that's what I thought.

A lot of stocks jumped in late day today. Lots of Brazilian stocks too. ITU, BBD, BRP.

 

[ArtG]

HAHAHAHAHA

BWhASjkfdhsflsdfs

IMMR dying.

:lol

/beats himself over the head

Hey, at least it came back a bit.
In other news, HTE killed me today. Was barely up. Can't complain too much, though...I had been doing fairly well against the market, so it had to stop sometime.

 

[Tarazet]

I see. How do you find those bonds and how do you purchase them? (I need to investopedia more)

I found and bought those bonds through my E*Trade brokerage account. No commission fees. I actually looked for the bond with the highest on-paper yield, and that also turned out to be the one with the lowest Moody rating (C) and the lowest S&P rating (D) on the open market at that time. The bond market has confusing terminology, but generally they gain value when the stock market goes down. The market value of the one I bought has climbed over 50% in a week!

One risky, but potentially rewarding, strategy is to buy just one or two junk bonds from a whole bunch of different places. You get the diversification without the commissions sapping it out of you, and even if 4 out of 5 of them default you can still come out way ahead. But it takes some patience, because the maturity dates can be years out.

 

[Ether_Snake]

+70% on Countrywide Financials.

...


...

argh!

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[Troblin]

Yeah, better than making mistakes with more. We all make mistakes early on (see my IMMR purchase, even tho it was after my ATVI purchase, it was highly uneducated).

Soka:

Ducommun or any other defense/military/aerospace stock is best as long term investments but some are more steady than others and you have to watch them daily anyway IMO. Difficult to pick and chose really. I would do a strong analysis before investing in order to pick the right one. Like, in my case, I was interested in anyone who was into the production of helicopters for civilian use in China. After some research I found that Sirkosky (owned by UTX) is dealing in that territory in China. The reason I think civilian-use helicopters will continue to be in higher and higher demand in China is because there's a lot of business men over there and both from China and foreign ones, the country is rather large, and and you can imagine how traveling by chopper can speed things up over using aircrafts. So with that in mind I made some research and found out I was right (considering the deals, the press releases, analysts expectations, etc.) I can't afford UTX, but what I'm saying is do some good research, it can't hurt. Try to figure out what could be good business.

Basically, I like those stocks, but I prefer to look for whatever they are making that could become more popular in the civilian sector instead.

Majesco; I understand the reasoning. Could be good, I have no idea really, tough call. I'd say, take a look at how Ubisoft's own casual games have been doing (they're making a lot of them, like the Babiez and Catz and whatnot). Check their next fiscal results and see if those games have been good sellers, and if the casual segment has been good for the company or not. If not, my guess would be that the same would apply to practically the whole casual market, but it's difficult to say really. I see it as a gamble.

Yamana Gold; I have no idea really. I forget why it was even on my watch list:lol

I was watching Yamaha gold back in August too. Was ~10.20 and was aiming for a 9 1/2 buy price. Missed the boat

Yamaha Gold is going up because the dolalr is falling like a rock. Usually when the dollar depreciates, people invest in commodities... oil, gold,copper, steel, et al.

The commodities market as a whole has done tremendously well with the economy's current state. Whether that trend will continue remains to be seen(I think will continue to boom).

 

[Troblin]

+70% on Countrywide Financials.

...


...

argh!

CFC is a death trap.

I see massive shorting in the future...

 

[MobiusPigeon]

holy crap! HELP!!!!! aaaaaaahahahahaha!!! i got lucky and bought countrywide when i saw it tank on monday and today they are rumored to be in talks with BofA for a buyout!!!! :lol i didnt invest much but wow! now i' thinking do i sell 1/4-1/2 of my ttwo and atvi and put more in cfc or do i just sit?