Ether_Snake
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Why is Adidas up 5% today? Someone with a lot of money reads my posts?
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
oh yah...up 80% on average...my lowest position is from $3.60, and then at $4 and on up all the way to $6
when it re-tested $7 i sold off some though (25%) expecting it to go back down but then it never did...sort of kicking myself right now, but at least i made some good profits.
been trying to tell you guys about it, but it's biotech and I know it's hard to trust some random stranger online with stock tips...
I added it to my watchlist back in January when you mentioned it and have been watching it closely. I'm trying to get my group to buy in. Hope it's not too late. Thinking going short with it at this point.
upcoming catalysts are some season flu data in Q2 (around march-may) time period, then Q3 about 5-6 catalysts for RSV...could be boom or bust from there
there's definitely some room in here for a retracement back to $7's
Respiratory syncytial (sin-SISH-uhl) virus, or RSV, is a respiratory virus that infects the lungs and breathing passages. Healthy people usually experience mild, cold-like symptoms and recover in a week or two. But RSV can be serious, especially for infants and older adults. In fact, RSV is the most common cause of bronchiolitis (inflammation of the small airways in the lung) and pneumonia in children younger than 1 year of age in the United States. In addition, RSV is being recognized more often as a significant cause of respiratory illness in older adults.
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RSV is basically the #1 cause of hospitalizations and deaths in infants...
There is currently NO vaccine available for it. Drug companies have been trying for the last 50 years.
NVAX has serveral phase 2 trials testing their RSV vaccine, they have seen pretty substantial safety and efficacy results from it, and they are at least a good 3-4 years ahead of any other company in a viable vaccine.
In addition to RSV, they are working on flu vaccines such as season flu, bird flu, and swine flu.
They have a vaccine platform that allows them to make a vaccine without using eggs (this is the process used by most vaccine companies), and this also allows them to create millions of doses in a short time frame.
Take this year's flu vaccine for example...you may have heard that this year's is only 23% effective. The problem with this is, the CDC takes a best guess every feburary/march of what the strains will be like for the NEXT flu season (starting in november/december). The problem with this is that leaves time for a new strain to pop up and make the vaccine less effective, as you're seeing this year.
NVAX's platform can take a genetic sequence from an online database such as the CDC or WHO, and get a vaccine up and running within 3-5 months as opposed to a year or more.
They took the latest strain of Ebola from September, and were able to make a vaccine candidate that they tested on non human primates...they just released the data last week. Every primate they injected was 100% protected. It's currently in a phase 1 trial in Austalia in humans. The other advantage of using a non-egg cell based vaccine is...current experimental Ebola vaccines, you have to transport and store them in freezing temperatures. With theirs, you only need to refrigerate it.
It's all pretty exciting stuff...if they get RSV before anyone else, it's an unmet need and they're looking at a 4-5 billion dollar opportunity all to themselves year after year. Their tech is truly disruptive, and in the next 2-3 years you can see this stock being valuated at a large multiple of it's current market cap if they succeed.
I know that's way more info than you asked for, but I truly believe in the long term prospects of this company, and they stand to do a lot of good.
The (Bill) Gates foundation has given them money for research into the RSV virus, as well as HHS BARDA (us gov't)
Wow! No, that info was very enlightening and just makes me even more excited about the company. Thanks!
Ether_Snake
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Ok now I expect Tesla stock to go up, people probably expect Apple to buy them, and it wouldn't surprise me if they did.
mmazurkiewicz
Member
musk won't sell but false rumors may send the stock up.
Ether_Snake
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Does he have a majority stake?
Unknown Soldier
Member
JustHadToJoin
Member
Thats actually pretty interesting. I blindly took your recommendation actually and it paid off haha, but I only played with a little cash. How did you come about this company in the first place?
vpance
Member
Hype stocks I dunno, but I think the solar sector could have huge upsides in the next year or so. Next 2 weeks earnings will be key to see if there's more follow through. CSIQ and SUNE are some I'm looking at.
MesserWolf
Member
? I would have though the exact opposite given the oil price. Not to mention that the sector has been through its "hype period" already and through the subsequent bloodbath.
A friend of mine and his buddy seem to have a decent track record with picking some early stage stocks so after reading up on it I decided to build a position.
What did you get in at?
vpance
Member
That could just be the first phase, the next one may be even bigger. That's how stocks usually move, in 3 phases.
Whether or not solars and the price of oil should be correlated is up for debate.. Nonetheless it has been loosely, depending on which company you're looking at. Regardless I think there's some good risk reward at this level. Oil might go lower and solars could diverge. Correlations between certain markets don't necessarily stick all the time.
Solar is volatile and you could easily pick the wrong horse. SUNE rebounded strong and held up well recently so that was a factor in my pick.
Edit: I'm not in SUNE right now and I was in CSIQ
vpance
Member
What kind of due diligence are you doing when you buy biotechs? Trial results? Technical analysis?
Some of these biotechs have huge short interest, enough so that the put options are worth far more than the calls. When that happens, hello free money! Options arbitrage is the strategy.
Added. Got my group to buy in on NVAX at $9.70. I think they are releasing their 4th qtr and Fiscal Year earning this week. Hoping for good things.
Well, the biotechs I buy are usually clinical stage, so TA doesn't do too much good, so my DD is reading through the science and seeing if they de-risk their programs during Phase I and II clinical trials results.
Short interest will always be high just in case a trial doesn't meet an endpoint...but on the flipside, if a stock does succeed, it helps to spring load them.
Well, they don't make any money yet, and they typically don't announce news during these ERs...usually the stock will go down a little bit, but the number I keep an eye out for is burn rate (through their cash), and how much cash they have left.
Ether_Snake
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Bulltrap forming on OVAS, I expect it to fall sharply in the near future. Classic bubble pattern pretty much always goes as expected.
vpance
Member
SPWR and FSLR just announced they're in talks to form a yieldco, both up around 10% aftermarket, others following.
I don't play them anymore but I when I did I looked for low to no risk arbitrage strategies. I rarely trade on fundamentals so holding stocks that can fluctuate so wildly on any kind of news and where TA isn't very reliable is a bit unsettling to me! Everything depends on position size I guess.
I don't play them anymore but I when I did I looked for low to no risk arbitrage strategies. I rarely trade on fundamentals so holding stocks that can fluctuate so wildly on any kind of news and where TA isn't very reliable is a bit unsettling to me! Everything depends on position size I guess.
I have a pretty good tolerance for volatility of the company's fundamentals are in tact. Then I'll buy low when people are fearful and sell for a nice profit.
tarzanpuyol
Member
I decided not to do it 2 weeks ago regarding BAC, I did buy some GE and F.
In other news loving the returns on my EWJ ETF, but I am sure a dip is coming soon.
Might want to average down here if you can...you bought at the very top.
I was afraid of that. How would I do that? Still new to all this.
Average down? Just buy some shares at a lower price to get your average share price lower...
Dunno, might want to wait a little bit in case the stock pulls back some more.
Stocks never go straight up! =) I'll be holding this for a few more years.
Took a quick look, looks to be an overreaction to something.
Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful
― Warren Buffett
Ok, I figured that's what you meant. Yeah, I want to stick with this one for a good while also.
First Trust NYSE Arca Biotech ETF
%Total Return 2014 47.55
%Total Return YTD 14.04
feels good man, feels real good
with those returns I feel validated for going after an ETF witih a high expense ratio :lol (0.6%)
%Total Return 2014 47.55
%Total Return YTD 14.04
feels good man, feels real good
Only 3.8% of my portfolio, sadly/for the better, but still pretty to look at. especially for an ETF.
with those returns I feel validated for going after an ETF witih a high expense ratio :lol (0.6%)
Unknown Soldier
Member
I cashed out of my QCOM today. Hard time are ahead for them if you have any.
anderyoung
Member
wow those NVAX after hours numbers
Yeah, figured as much after the earnings was released.
mmazurkiewicz
Member
jcp and oled both down AH.
This always happens after an earnings. They don't make any money yet. People are buying this stock for the story and the potential, so it's laughable when the price gets pushed down because of "lack of earnings".
Great buying opportunity here.
I bailed on OLED at $35. Didn't like their 2015 guidance. I think I can buy back for $30 or under.
Ether_Snake
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OVAS seems to have hit its bulltrap high, down it goes from here if the clasdic bubble and manias chart is to be true.
I'm just not confident enough to short
Edit: OVAS on top of the chart, look at that match
I'm just not confident enough to short
Edit: OVAS on top of the chart, look at that match
Ether_Snake
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Amazon is promoting Google's Nest on its front page right under Kindle... merger incoming?
mmazurkiewicz
Member
merge of who, amazon and google as a whole?
Ether_Snake
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Yeah, I always joke that it will happen eventually. I think it would make sense, but I don't think regulars would actually let that one pass. Both companies have to many hurdles on that end in Europe and probably elsewhere.
edit: Ouch at how much I have to pay in income tax on my capital gains for 2014. I should have sold a loser to deduct the losses.