I put $58,000 in XPEV with a price around $26.00. Bought more DKNG, ETSY, ON, MGM,
Plus a few more
the Nasdaq Composite’s rebound [today] from its trough to around where it is currently trading is near 4 percentage points, which would be the biggest comeback since March 19, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Why so much in XPEV? I've lost so much from them.) :
I put $58,000 in XPEV with a price around $26.00. Bought more DKNG, ETSY, ON, MGM,
Plus a few more
I'm so excited for the next few weeks.Bought a cheeky little position on CLII just before the close, was eyeing that up for months but no way was I entering in the 20's/high teens. If we are through the worst of it then my only regret is that I didn't average down my positions on LIT, BLOK and LTHM even more than I did.
Other than that I'm pretty happy with the state of my portfolio. The last week has really pushed me into diversifying more, it was sooner than I planned to so I had to dip into my day trading play money to do so but oh well (wanted to wait until I added more funds and sold out of other positions).
This week I added the following for diversification:
OIH
XLF
XLE
PDBC
KBWY
SRET
Really felt those positions help pull me through today even when everything else was tanking which bodes well. Now feel like I'm much better prepared whatever comes in the next year or two, whether the tech bubble continues or not. With that I now say to the stock market:
whoa, dem yieldsKBWY
SRET
Bought a cheeky little position on CLII just before the close, was eyeing that up for months but no way was I entering in the 20's/high teens. If we are through the worst of it then my only regret is that I didn't average down my positions on LIT, BLOK and LTHM even more than I did.
Other than that I'm pretty happy with the state of my portfolio. The last week has really pushed me into diversifying more, it was sooner than I planned to so I had to dip into my day trading play money to do so but oh well (wanted to wait until I added more funds and sold out of other positions).
This week I added the following for diversification:
OIH
XLF
XLE
PDBC
KBWY
SRET
Really felt those positions help pull me through today even when everything else was tanking which bodes well. Now feel like I'm much better prepared whatever comes in the next year or two, whether the tech bubble continues or not. With that I now say to the stock market:
Tesla, which is named as “technical and industrial partnership” in the New Caledonia deal, recently indicated that it was planning to move into the mining business to secure resources for battery production.
Interesting. I was in Vale, a nickel miner, for a while and did very well. That's going to make it so hard to valuate Tesla. I think most of the miners, like Vale, are dividend stocks.Pretty interesting development surrounding Tesla:
Tesla gets involved in New Caledonia mine to secure nickel supply
Tesla will be a “technical and industrial partnerwww.mining.com
The key point:
If Tesla continue to make moves like this then it could have implications down the line for companies that they currently have agreements with for raw materials.
Interesting. I was in Vale, a nickel miner, for a while and did very well. That's going to make it so hard to valuate Tesla. I think most of the miners, like Vale, are dividend stocks.
Interesting about being in real estate. I figured there might be some sort of the-alignment as some businesses figure out they can get away with a much lighter footprint. (Drive thru only, takeout only, no store front, or remote workers). Thought that might crash the market for a bit.I have to write a report for work, so here is a summary of my expectations for the remainder of the year. Firslty, without Biden's stimulus, the economy was expected to hit pre-pandemic growth around the end of 2021. With the passing of this stimulus, we are now spending 3-4 times above the expected shortfall, added to this, states are reopening faster, vaccination numbers are rising and are hitting targets, we have targeted manufacturing and supply chain development being the next phase of targeted development.
These things are good, the economy is looking surpass or match the growth observed in Reagan years (Good Morning America). In-fact I would be long equities and short bonds under these conditions. There are however some problems
1) Inflation expectations are rising - If you look at the 5 year and 10 year inflation benchmarks, they have surpassed observed rates over the last decade. If you were to look the amount of money in circulation its above the projected norm and the level of household savings will see a dramatic increase upon what was built upon as a result of Trump's Tax cuts. These factors will contribute to inflation especially as the pandemic worries eases down and countries plus states reopen. The demand for goods and services will increase dramatically as a result of the utilization in excess savings. United States is a consumerist economy not a saving one like Japan, thus this pop in aggregate demand will lead to growth alongside inflation.
2) Interest rates - if you look at the 10 year yield, its been rising. Why has it been rising well if Liquidity preference theory has taught us anything about investor behavior is that investors are vicious consumers for high returns and they are afraid of inflation eating away at those returns. Right now with inflation expectations are hitting 2.2%, so lets assume that is the actual inflation rate for now. If you have a bond yielding 1.5% and inflation is hitting 2.2%, then you are earning a negative real rate of return and you have no desire to own that bond. So bonds are being sold off, the supply of bonds to the market rises, thus excess supply leads to a fall in price, hence to make the bonds attractive again, yields rise ( during the auctioning). If bond yields continue to rise and half way through the year surpass their target of 2.0% the FED will step in but they are limited in scope as any measure they take will result in a massive trade off.
If inflation surpasses expectations you will see a continued upward projection in baseline rates, you are already seeing a change as Mortgage rates have surpassed 3.0%
3) Emerging market, Other Developed Markets, - what is unique about this pandemic are the global ramification of lock downs and halting of economic activity. Economies are hurting right now, they need cash to restart their economy. Most governments would prioritize their own people before their global partners. To restart their industries, they would raw materials, people, technology, cash etc thus they too will be forced to enact massive stimulus to restart their economies. Not wanting to be left behind the U.S and having it hoard all the limited resources, they are building up their own stockpiles which is part of the reason why you are seeing this massive rise in commodity prices. As demand has exceeded supply.
As the underlying cost of the good increases the price of product will have to increase as many companies are unable to absorb higher prices like they did in prior years as most of them have higher debt obligations and limited cash. They would most likely pass these cost unto the consumers gong forward and given the effect of the multiplier, inflation will rise.
Additionally, these economies need cash to fund their expenditures. They do this buy releasing bonds to the global economy. Their rates are normally above the risk free rate (U.S treasuries) to compensate investors for risk. However, U.S rates are rising thus EM inflows as fallen as a result. To ensure that they continue to receive a sustainable flow of cash and to also protect their currency from rising to quickly (which would make them noncompetitive), these markets will raise rates to an effect that would return inflows back to their market and what could end up happening is a race to the top (rising interest rates to quickly) which could end up hurting economic development.
So there is a light summary of a 20 page report I have to do. So the more important question is what to invest in when their is inflation and rising yields.
Well the firstly, as I stated before I would be long equities and short bonds, however not all equities and most certainly a branch of tech stocks.
I would definitely have real estate in my portfolio (providing no black swan events like a housing bubble), I would also be long financials as rising rates work and favor of them . Also I would add some commodities to the list that have limited supply like oil and natural gas.
I would also put some money in growth stocks that have growth rates in cash flows and revenues above the rate of inflation.
Interesting about being in real estate. I figured there might be some sort of the-alignment as some businesses figure out they can get away with a much lighter footprint. (Drive thru only, takeout only, no store front, or remote workers). Thought that might crash the market for a bit.
The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket. #ParadigmShift https://t.co/kNT4memOVt pic.twitter.com/Bdw1CDn3Yf
— Cassandra (@michaeljburry) February 20, 2021
Do you also have people giving presentations about the data out of Europe and Asia?I have to write a report for work, so here is a summary of my expectations for the remainder of the year. Firslty, without Biden's stimulus, the economy was expected to hit pre-pandemic growth around the end of 2021. With the passing of this stimulus, we are now spending 3-4 times above the expected shortfall, added to this, states are reopening faster, vaccination numbers are rising and are hitting targets, we have targeted manufacturing and supply chain development being the next phase of targeted development.
These things are good, the economy is looking surpass or match the growth observed in Reagan years (Good Morning America). In-fact I would be long equities and short bonds under these conditions. There are however some problems
1) Inflation expectations are rising - If you look at the 5 year and 10 year inflation benchmarks, they have surpassed observed rates over the last decade. If you were to look the amount of money in circulation its above the projected norm and the level of household savings will see a dramatic increase upon what was built upon as a result of Trump's Tax cuts. These factors will contribute to inflation especially as the pandemic worries eases down and countries plus states reopen. The demand for goods and services will increase dramatically as a result of the utilization in excess savings. United States is a consumerist economy not a saving one like Japan, thus this pop in aggregate demand will lead to growth alongside inflation.
2) Interest rates - if you look at the 10 year yield, its been rising. Why has it been rising well if Liquidity preference theory has taught us anything about investor behavior is that investors are vicious consumers for high returns and they are afraid of inflation eating away at those returns. Right now with inflation expectations are hitting 2.2%, so lets assume that is the actual inflation rate for now. If you have a bond yielding 1.5% and inflation is hitting 2.2%, then you are earning a negative real rate of return and you have no desire to own that bond. So bonds are being sold off, the supply of bonds to the market rises, thus excess supply leads to a fall in price, hence to make the bonds attractive again, yields rise ( during the auctioning). If bond yields continue to rise and half way through the year surpass their target of 2.0% the FED will step in but they are limited in scope as any measure they take will result in a massive trade off.
If inflation surpasses expectations you will see a continued upward projection in baseline rates, you are already seeing a change as Mortgage rates have surpassed 3.0%
3) Emerging market, Other Developed Markets, - what is unique about this pandemic are the global ramification of lock downs and halting of economic activity. Economies are hurting right now, they need cash to restart their economy. Most governments would prioritize their own people before their global partners. To restart their industries, they would raw materials, people, technology, cash etc thus they too will be forced to enact massive stimulus to restart their economies. Not wanting to be left behind the U.S and having it hoard all the limited resources, they are building up their own stockpiles which is part of the reason why you are seeing this massive rise in commodity prices. As demand has exceeded supply.
As the underlying cost of the good increases the price of product will have to increase as many companies are unable to absorb higher prices like they did in prior years as most of them have higher debt obligations and limited cash. They would most likely pass these cost unto the consumers gong forward and given the effect of the multiplier, inflation will rise.
Additionally, these economies need cash to fund their expenditures. They do this buy releasing bonds to the global economy. Their rates are normally above the risk free rate (U.S treasuries) to compensate investors for risk. However, U.S rates are rising thus EM inflows as fallen as a result. To ensure that they continue to receive a sustainable flow of cash and to also protect their currency from volatility, these markets will raise rates to an effect that would return inflows back to their market and what could end up happening is a race to the top (rising interest rates to quickly) which could end up hurting economic development.
So there is a light summary of a 20 page report I have to do. So the more important question is what to invest in when their is inflation and rising yields.
Well the firstly, as I stated before I would be long equities and short bonds, however not all equities and most certainly a branch of tech stocks.
I would definitely have real estate in my portfolio (providing no black swan events like a housing bubble), I would also be long financials as rising rates work and favor of them . Also I would add some commodities to the list that have limited supply like oil and natural gas.
I would also put some money in growth stocks that have growth rates in cash flows and revenues above the rate of inflation.
Do you also have people giving presentations about the data out of Europe and Asia?
I assume you personally are more into the real estate management companies than directly renting property out yourself? Which one do you like? That’s a sector I'm 100% unfamiliar with.
Oh and thanks for posting that. The bond yields rising I didn't understand, but of course that's why.
In the U.S., prices rose close to 3% in the year ending Jan. 2, according to NielsenIQ, roughly double the overall rate of inflation. That small jump adds up, particularly for families already near the edge. The poorest Americans already spend 36% of their income on food, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and mass layoffs in lower-wage work like retail and transportation have increased the strain on household budgets.
Meanwhile, the price of staples like grains, sunflower seeds, soybeans and sugar have soared, pushing global food prices to a fresh six-year high in January. They’re not likely to fall any time soon, thanks to a combination of poor weather, increased demand and virus-mangled global supply chains.
No surprise.And like clockwork. Inflation articles are coming out
No surprise.
With covid hoarding, stores and suppliers are raising prices and/or cutting back on sales prices because they know people are working from home more using up supplies.
And this will continue as I don't see a 100% back to normal situation anytime soon where people are spending time and money commuting to work and spending money eating out and on gas. Our company has cut back on deals too. Why deal when we are selling even MORE stuff than normal at regular prices?
More money you got saved up, more money you'll spend on shit you don't really need. The smart thing to do is try to bank that money or pay off debts (even a couple $1000 can go a long way for some people), but I have no idea over the past year how much people are saving and how much people are blowing their cash.
I can understand front line people with job losses hurting, but for all the people who had no effect except to just work from home, they should be banking $1000s in savings from eating out, gas, babysitting etc.... Or blowing it hoarding dumb shit.
For people who don't know, some industries that have zoomed up the charts the past year in sales and work is anything to do with Home Depot shit.... repairs, renovations, landscaping etc... People are at home bored so they spend time and money renovating.
Never got into energy but see a lot of the big oil companies roughly doubling from the 2020 lows. Tempting.Oil is $70 a barrel babay!!!! Hope y’all loaded up on energy !!
Never got into energy but see a lot of the big oil companies roughly doubling from the 2020 lows. Tempting.
Cant believe Exxon was about $30 at one point. Assuming the Yahoo Finance dividend counter is correct at $3.48 (sometimes it's wrong or outdated), you could have had Exxon at $30 and a 12% yield if you got at the low.
I hope we don’t have a reoccurrence where higher inflation leads to higher unemployment like in the 1970s