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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

mango drank

Member
Funds new for me that I bought today:
XLE
XLF
SLYV
PDBC

I was feeling merciful and didn't pull anything out of ARK, given that it didn't get beat up as badly as usual. It lives to tank another day. Also, if this is the end of the tech rout for now, then I guess the above buys might not matter, and I might as well have done literally nothing today (or bought more tech ... but I wanna wait for it to test the bottom first).
 

Honey Bunny

Member
the Nasdaq Composite’s rebound [today] from its trough to around where it is currently trading is near 4 percentage points, which would be the biggest comeback since March 19, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

March 19th was two days before the very bottom of the virus crash. I've held the tech I believe in this long, but I took the opportunity to rebalance in favour of the companies with healthy income statements and an actual track record anticipating further issues with the 10 yr. If the others get a v-shaped recovery I'll have lost out on some growth but I don't think they will.
 
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GHG

Member
Bought a cheeky little position on CLII just before the close, was eyeing that up for months but no way was I entering in the 20's/high teens. If we are through the worst of it then my only regret is that I didn't average down my positions on LIT, BLOK and LTHM even more than I did.

Other than that I'm pretty happy with the state of my portfolio. The last week has really pushed me into diversifying more, it was sooner than I planned to so I had to dip into my day trading play money to do so but oh well (wanted to wait until I added more funds and sold out of other positions).

This week I added the following for diversification:

OIH
XLF
XLE
PDBC
KBWY
SRET

Really felt those positions help pull me through today even when everything else was tanking which bodes well. Now feel like I'm much better prepared whatever comes in the next year or two, whether the tech bubble continues or not. With that I now say to the stock market:

tumblr_msbtkcrY541so18vqo1_400.gif
 

SpartanN92

Banned
Bought a cheeky little position on CLII just before the close, was eyeing that up for months but no way was I entering in the 20's/high teens. If we are through the worst of it then my only regret is that I didn't average down my positions on LIT, BLOK and LTHM even more than I did.

Other than that I'm pretty happy with the state of my portfolio. The last week has really pushed me into diversifying more, it was sooner than I planned to so I had to dip into my day trading play money to do so but oh well (wanted to wait until I added more funds and sold out of other positions).

This week I added the following for diversification:

OIH
XLF
XLE
PDBC
KBWY
SRET

Really felt those positions help pull me through today even when everything else was tanking which bodes well. Now feel like I'm much better prepared whatever comes in the next year or two, whether the tech bubble continues or not. With that I now say to the stock market:

tumblr_msbtkcrY541so18vqo1_400.gif
I'm so excited for the next few weeks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GHG

dem

Member
Bought a cheeky little position on CLII just before the close, was eyeing that up for months but no way was I entering in the 20's/high teens. If we are through the worst of it then my only regret is that I didn't average down my positions on LIT, BLOK and LTHM even more than I did.

Other than that I'm pretty happy with the state of my portfolio. The last week has really pushed me into diversifying more, it was sooner than I planned to so I had to dip into my day trading play money to do so but oh well (wanted to wait until I added more funds and sold out of other positions).

This week I added the following for diversification:

OIH
XLF
XLE
PDBC
KBWY
SRET

Really felt those positions help pull me through today even when everything else was tanking which bodes well. Now feel like I'm much better prepared whatever comes in the next year or two, whether the tech bubble continues or not. With that I now say to the stock market:

tumblr_msbtkcrY541so18vqo1_400.gif


 

GHG

Member
Pretty interesting development surrounding Tesla:


The key point:

Tesla, which is named as “technical and industrial partnership” in the New Caledonia deal, recently indicated that it was planning to move into the mining business to secure resources for battery production.

If Tesla continue to make moves like this then it could have implications down the line for companies that they currently have agreements with for raw materials.
 

BigBooper

Member
Pretty interesting development surrounding Tesla:


The key point:



If Tesla continue to make moves like this then it could have implications down the line for companies that they currently have agreements with for raw materials.
Interesting. I was in Vale, a nickel miner, for a while and did very well. That's going to make it so hard to valuate Tesla. I think most of the miners, like Vale, are dividend stocks.
 

GHG

Member
Interesting. I was in Vale, a nickel miner, for a while and did very well. That's going to make it so hard to valuate Tesla. I think most of the miners, like Vale, are dividend stocks.

Yeh I'm thinking about Vale for next week potentially. I have some room for more mining/metals in my portfolio and it looks like an attractive option considering the dividend. Need to do some more research on them before deciding though.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
DAN IVES ON THE RECENT TECH SELL OFF



Following another "brutal" sell-off in the technology space, Wedbush still looks to be buying the dip with "massive" buying opportunities across the board.
Momentum names are down anywhere from 15-25% this week, the firm notes - a "way overdone" decline considering $2 trillion in digital transformation spending, coupled with a massive M&A spree in the space to come in the next few years.

Wedbush's Dan Ives earlier this week called out attractive options in enterprise software, including Microsoft, Salesforce.com, Zoom, Slack, Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks and Apple.

But the recent declines have him broadening the list he'd buy aggressively on weakness. And his stance that there's 25% upside ahead has brightened, to a 30% upward move expected for the coming year.

Breaking out by theme/sector, Wedbush's favorite names to own in cloud computing plays are Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) and Salesforce (NYSE:CRM); the healthcare cloud play is Nuance Communications (NASDAQ:NUAN); its 5G "Super Cycle" play is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL); and its automotive cloud play is Cerence (NASDAQ:CRNC).

Among the generous upside it's targeting in those names: A $175 price target on Apple implies 44% upside; A $150 target on Cerence implies 65% upside; DocuSign's target of $300 implies 47% upside; a $300 target on Microsoft implies 30% upside; and Nuance's $65 target implies 53% upside.
Meanwhile, in one of its favorite investing themes - cybersecurity - the firm is bullish on Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS), Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT), Varonis (NASDAQ:VRNS), SailPoint (NYSE:SAIL), CyberArk (NASDAQ:CYBR), Tenable (NASDAQ:TENB), and Telos (NASDAQ:TLS). A price target of $240 on Zscaler points to 37% upside.

"The emotional bull/bear debate on tech valuations is not going to go away," Ives writes, "but we believe the underlying fundamental stories and white hot growth creates a yellow brick road to an upward bullish trend for the tech sector into the rest of 2021 despite the rotation/yield white knuckle worries abound on the Street seen this week."
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
I have to write a report for work, so here is a summary of my expectations for the remainder of the year. Firslty, without Biden's stimulus, the economy was expected to hit pre-pandemic growth around the end of 2021. With the passing of this stimulus, we are now spending 3-4 times above the expected shortfall, added to this, states are reopening faster, vaccination numbers are rising and are hitting targets, we have targeted manufacturing and supply chain development being the next phase of targeted development.

These things are good, the economy is looking surpass or match the growth observed in Reagan years (Good Morning America). In-fact I would be long equities and short bonds under these conditions. There are however some problems

1) Inflation expectations are rising - If you look at the 5 year and 10 year inflation benchmarks, they have surpassed observed rates over the last decade. If you were to look the amount of money in circulation its above the projected norm and the level of household savings will see a dramatic increase upon what was built upon as a result of Trump's Tax cuts. These factors will contribute to inflation especially as the pandemic worries eases down and countries plus states reopen. The demand for goods and services will increase dramatically as a result of the utilization in excess savings. United States is a consumerist economy not a saving one like Japan, thus this pop in aggregate demand will lead to growth alongside inflation.


2) Interest rates - if you look at the 10 year yield, its been rising. Why has it been rising well if Liquidity preference theory has taught us anything about investor behavior is that investors are vicious consumers for high returns and they are afraid of inflation eating away at those returns. Right now with inflation expectations are hitting 2.2%, so lets assume that is the actual inflation rate for now. If you have a bond yielding 1.5% and inflation is hitting 2.2%, then you are earning a negative real rate of return and you have no desire to own that bond. So bonds are being sold off, the supply of bonds to the market rises, thus excess supply leads to a fall in price, hence to make the bonds attractive again, yields rise ( during the auctioning). If bond yields continue to rise and half way through the year surpass their target of 2.0% the FED will step in but they are limited in scope as any measure they take will result in a massive trade off.

If inflation surpasses expectations you will see a continued upward projection in baseline rates, you are already seeing a change as Mortgage rates have surpassed 3.0%

3) Emerging market, Other Developed Markets, - what is unique about this pandemic are the global ramification of lock downs and halting of economic activity. Economies are hurting right now, they need cash to restart their economy. Most governments would prioritize their own people before their global partners. To restart their industries, they would raw materials, people, technology, cash etc thus they too will be forced to enact massive stimulus to restart their economies. Not wanting to be left behind the U.S and having it hoard all the limited resources, they are building up their own stockpiles which is part of the reason why you are seeing this massive rise in commodity prices. As demand has exceeded supply.

As the underlying cost of the good increases the price of product will have to increase as many companies are unable to absorb higher prices like they did in prior years as most of them have higher debt obligations and limited cash. They would most likely pass these cost unto the consumers gong forward and given the effect of the multiplier, inflation will rise.


Additionally, these economies need cash to fund their expenditures. They do this buy releasing bonds to the global economy. Their rates are normally above the risk free rate (U.S treasuries) to compensate investors for risk. However, U.S rates are rising thus EM inflows as fallen as a result. To ensure that they continue to receive a sustainable flow of cash and to also protect their currency from volatility, these markets will raise rates to an effect that would return inflows back to their market and what could end up happening is a race to the top (rising interest rates to quickly) which could end up hurting economic development.


So there is a light summary of a 20 page report I have to do. So the more important question is what to invest in when their is inflation and rising yields.

Well the firstly, as I stated before I would be long equities and short bonds, however not all equities and most certainly a branch of tech stocks.

I would definitely have real estate in my portfolio (providing no black swan events like a housing bubble), I would also be long financials as rising rates work and favor of them . Also I would add some commodities to the list that have limited supply like oil and natural gas.

I would also put some money in growth stocks that have growth rates in cash flows and revenues above the rate of inflation.
 
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I have to write a report for work, so here is a summary of my expectations for the remainder of the year. Firslty, without Biden's stimulus, the economy was expected to hit pre-pandemic growth around the end of 2021. With the passing of this stimulus, we are now spending 3-4 times above the expected shortfall, added to this, states are reopening faster, vaccination numbers are rising and are hitting targets, we have targeted manufacturing and supply chain development being the next phase of targeted development.

These things are good, the economy is looking surpass or match the growth observed in Reagan years (Good Morning America). In-fact I would be long equities and short bonds under these conditions. There are however some problems

1) Inflation expectations are rising - If you look at the 5 year and 10 year inflation benchmarks, they have surpassed observed rates over the last decade. If you were to look the amount of money in circulation its above the projected norm and the level of household savings will see a dramatic increase upon what was built upon as a result of Trump's Tax cuts. These factors will contribute to inflation especially as the pandemic worries eases down and countries plus states reopen. The demand for goods and services will increase dramatically as a result of the utilization in excess savings. United States is a consumerist economy not a saving one like Japan, thus this pop in aggregate demand will lead to growth alongside inflation.


2) Interest rates - if you look at the 10 year yield, its been rising. Why has it been rising well if Liquidity preference theory has taught us anything about investor behavior is that investors are vicious consumers for high returns and they are afraid of inflation eating away at those returns. Right now with inflation expectations are hitting 2.2%, so lets assume that is the actual inflation rate for now. If you have a bond yielding 1.5% and inflation is hitting 2.2%, then you are earning a negative real rate of return and you have no desire to own that bond. So bonds are being sold off, the supply of bonds to the market rises, thus excess supply leads to a fall in price, hence to make the bonds attractive again, yields rise ( during the auctioning). If bond yields continue to rise and half way through the year surpass their target of 2.0% the FED will step in but they are limited in scope as any measure they take will result in a massive trade off.

If inflation surpasses expectations you will see a continued upward projection in baseline rates, you are already seeing a change as Mortgage rates have surpassed 3.0%

3) Emerging market, Other Developed Markets, - what is unique about this pandemic are the global ramification of lock downs and halting of economic activity. Economies are hurting right now, they need cash to restart their economy. Most governments would prioritize their own people before their global partners. To restart their industries, they would raw materials, people, technology, cash etc thus they too will be forced to enact massive stimulus to restart their economies. Not wanting to be left behind the U.S and having it hoard all the limited resources, they are building up their own stockpiles which is part of the reason why you are seeing this massive rise in commodity prices. As demand has exceeded supply.

As the underlying cost of the good increases the price of product will have to increase as many companies are unable to absorb higher prices like they did in prior years as most of them have higher debt obligations and limited cash. They would most likely pass these cost unto the consumers gong forward and given the effect of the multiplier, inflation will rise.


Additionally, these economies need cash to fund their expenditures. They do this buy releasing bonds to the global economy. Their rates are normally above the risk free rate (U.S treasuries) to compensate investors for risk. However, U.S rates are rising thus EM inflows as fallen as a result. To ensure that they continue to receive a sustainable flow of cash and to also protect their currency from rising to quickly (which would make them noncompetitive), these markets will raise rates to an effect that would return inflows back to their market and what could end up happening is a race to the top (rising interest rates to quickly) which could end up hurting economic development.


So there is a light summary of a 20 page report I have to do. So the more important question is what to invest in when their is inflation and rising yields.

Well the firstly, as I stated before I would be long equities and short bonds, however not all equities and most certainly a branch of tech stocks.

I would definitely have real estate in my portfolio (providing no black swan events like a housing bubble), I would also be long financials as rising rates work and favor of them . Also I would add some commodities to the list that have limited supply like oil and natural gas.

I would also put some money in growth stocks that have growth rates in cash flows and revenues above the rate of inflation.
Interesting about being in real estate. I figured there might be some sort of the-alignment as some businesses figure out they can get away with a much lighter footprint. (Drive thru only, takeout only, no store front, or remote workers). Thought that might crash the market for a bit.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
Interesting about being in real estate. I figured there might be some sort of the-alignment as some businesses figure out they can get away with a much lighter footprint. (Drive thru only, takeout only, no store front, or remote workers). Thought that might crash the market for a bit.

It’s based on data from prior years. It all depends on how inflation behaves going forward. I know financial assets are last in that list but I think they would be the safer option due to regulatory reasons

py74MyJ.jpg
 
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BigBooper

Member
I have to write a report for work, so here is a summary of my expectations for the remainder of the year. Firslty, without Biden's stimulus, the economy was expected to hit pre-pandemic growth around the end of 2021. With the passing of this stimulus, we are now spending 3-4 times above the expected shortfall, added to this, states are reopening faster, vaccination numbers are rising and are hitting targets, we have targeted manufacturing and supply chain development being the next phase of targeted development.

These things are good, the economy is looking surpass or match the growth observed in Reagan years (Good Morning America). In-fact I would be long equities and short bonds under these conditions. There are however some problems

1) Inflation expectations are rising - If you look at the 5 year and 10 year inflation benchmarks, they have surpassed observed rates over the last decade. If you were to look the amount of money in circulation its above the projected norm and the level of household savings will see a dramatic increase upon what was built upon as a result of Trump's Tax cuts. These factors will contribute to inflation especially as the pandemic worries eases down and countries plus states reopen. The demand for goods and services will increase dramatically as a result of the utilization in excess savings. United States is a consumerist economy not a saving one like Japan, thus this pop in aggregate demand will lead to growth alongside inflation.


2) Interest rates - if you look at the 10 year yield, its been rising. Why has it been rising well if Liquidity preference theory has taught us anything about investor behavior is that investors are vicious consumers for high returns and they are afraid of inflation eating away at those returns. Right now with inflation expectations are hitting 2.2%, so lets assume that is the actual inflation rate for now. If you have a bond yielding 1.5% and inflation is hitting 2.2%, then you are earning a negative real rate of return and you have no desire to own that bond. So bonds are being sold off, the supply of bonds to the market rises, thus excess supply leads to a fall in price, hence to make the bonds attractive again, yields rise ( during the auctioning). If bond yields continue to rise and half way through the year surpass their target of 2.0% the FED will step in but they are limited in scope as any measure they take will result in a massive trade off.

If inflation surpasses expectations you will see a continued upward projection in baseline rates, you are already seeing a change as Mortgage rates have surpassed 3.0%

3) Emerging market, Other Developed Markets, - what is unique about this pandemic are the global ramification of lock downs and halting of economic activity. Economies are hurting right now, they need cash to restart their economy. Most governments would prioritize their own people before their global partners. To restart their industries, they would raw materials, people, technology, cash etc thus they too will be forced to enact massive stimulus to restart their economies. Not wanting to be left behind the U.S and having it hoard all the limited resources, they are building up their own stockpiles which is part of the reason why you are seeing this massive rise in commodity prices. As demand has exceeded supply.

As the underlying cost of the good increases the price of product will have to increase as many companies are unable to absorb higher prices like they did in prior years as most of them have higher debt obligations and limited cash. They would most likely pass these cost unto the consumers gong forward and given the effect of the multiplier, inflation will rise.


Additionally, these economies need cash to fund their expenditures. They do this buy releasing bonds to the global economy. Their rates are normally above the risk free rate (U.S treasuries) to compensate investors for risk. However, U.S rates are rising thus EM inflows as fallen as a result. To ensure that they continue to receive a sustainable flow of cash and to also protect their currency from volatility, these markets will raise rates to an effect that would return inflows back to their market and what could end up happening is a race to the top (rising interest rates to quickly) which could end up hurting economic development.


So there is a light summary of a 20 page report I have to do. So the more important question is what to invest in when their is inflation and rising yields.

Well the firstly, as I stated before I would be long equities and short bonds, however not all equities and most certainly a branch of tech stocks.

I would definitely have real estate in my portfolio (providing no black swan events like a housing bubble), I would also be long financials as rising rates work and favor of them . Also I would add some commodities to the list that have limited supply like oil and natural gas.

I would also put some money in growth stocks that have growth rates in cash flows and revenues above the rate of inflation.
Do you also have people giving presentations about the data out of Europe and Asia?

I assume you personally are more into the real estate management companies than directly renting property out yourself? Which one do you like? That’s a sector I'm 100% unfamiliar with.

Oh and thanks for posting that. The bond yields rising I didn't understand, but of course that's why.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
Do you also have people giving presentations about the data out of Europe and Asia?

I assume you personally are more into the real estate management companies than directly renting property out yourself? Which one do you like? That’s a sector I'm 100% unfamiliar with.

Oh and thanks for posting that. The bond yields rising I didn't understand, but of course that's why.


Ya but I’m not for Europe, I’m Latin America and US.

When I say real estate this includes stock as well. REITS etc. I think those type is stocks will outperform.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
And like clockwork. Inflation articles are coming out


In the U.S., prices rose close to 3% in the year ending Jan. 2, according to NielsenIQ, roughly double the overall rate of inflation. That small jump adds up, particularly for families already near the edge. The poorest Americans already spend 36% of their income on food, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and mass layoffs in lower-wage work like retail and transportation have increased the strain on household budgets.

Meanwhile, the price of staples like grains, sunflower seeds, soybeans and sugar have soared, pushing global food prices to a fresh six-year high in January. They’re not likely to fall any time soon, thanks to a combination of poor weather, increased demand and virus-mangled global supply chains.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
And like clockwork. Inflation articles are coming out
No surprise.

With covid hoarding, stores and suppliers are raising prices and/or cutting back on sales prices because they know people are working from home more using up supplies.

And this will continue as I don't see a 100% back to normal situation anytime soon where people are spending time and money commuting to work and spending money eating out and on gas. Our company has cut back on deals too. Why deal when we are selling even MORE stuff than normal at regular prices?

More money you got saved up, more money you'll spend on shit you don't really need. The smart thing to do is try to bank that money or pay off debts (even a couple $1000 can go a long way for some people), but I have no idea over the past year how much people are saving and how much people are blowing their cash.

I can understand front line people with job losses hurting, but for all the people who had no effect except to just work from home, they should be banking $1000s in savings from eating out, gas, babysitting etc.... Or blowing it hoarding dumb shit.

For people who don't know, some industries that have zoomed up the charts the past year in sales and work is anything to do with Home Depot shit.... repairs, renovations, landscaping etc... People are at home bored so they spend time and money renovating.
 
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ManofOne

Plus Member
No surprise.

With covid hoarding, stores and suppliers are raising prices and/or cutting back on sales prices because they know people are working from home more using up supplies.

And this will continue as I don't see a 100% back to normal situation anytime soon where people are spending time and money commuting to work and spending money eating out and on gas. Our company has cut back on deals too. Why deal when we are selling even MORE stuff than normal at regular prices?

More money you got saved up, more money you'll spend on shit you don't really need. The smart thing to do is try to bank that money or pay off debts (even a couple $1000 can go a long way for some people), but I have no idea over the past year how much people are saving and how much people are blowing their cash.

I can understand front line people with job losses hurting, but for all the people who had no effect except to just work from home, they should be banking $1000s in savings from eating out, gas, babysitting etc.... Or blowing it hoarding dumb shit.

For people who don't know, some industries that have zoomed up the charts the past year in sales and work is anything to do with Home Depot shit.... repairs, renovations, landscaping etc... People are at home bored so they spend time and money renovating.


I hope we don’t have a reoccurrence where higher inflation leads to higher unemployment like in the 1970s
 

GHG

Member
Reading mixed signals on what to expect for the week ahead.

As I have with the last few weeks I will approach with caution, look for further diversification opportunities and take profits wherever necessary.

Hopefully it all starts well. Incidentally bitcoin has had a bit of a rally over the weekend so keep your eye on the likes of MSTR, RIOT, TSLA and CAN tomorrow.
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Oil is $70 a barrel babay!!!! Hope y’all loaded up on energy !!
Never got into energy but see a lot of the big oil companies roughly doubling from the 2020 lows. Tempting.

Cant believe Exxon was about $30 at one point. Assuming the Yahoo Finance dividend counter is correct at $3.48 (sometimes it's wrong or outdated), you could have had Exxon at $30 and a 12% yield if you got at the low.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
Never got into energy but see a lot of the big oil companies roughly doubling from the 2020 lows. Tempting.

Cant believe Exxon was about $30 at one point. Assuming the Yahoo Finance dividend counter is correct at $3.48 (sometimes it's wrong or outdated), you could have had Exxon at $30 and a 12% yield if you got at the low.

XOM had unbelievable value when it fell into the high 20s. That company was so over sold despite having a nice balance sheet. I kept buying until my average price was around $31


u3XHei3.jpg
 
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ManofOne

Plus Member
NF6pMrJ.jpg


10 year yield touching 1.6%. That is a 40 basis point rise in just a month. With EM outflows happening as well it could result in another taper tantrum.

I know I bought stocks on Friday but I’m gonna reduce my positions on newer stocks and watch from afar if the 10 year keeps rising.
 
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longdi

Banned
I hope we don’t have a reoccurrence where higher inflation leads to higher unemployment like in the 1970s

holy crap!


It's the 1970s, and the stock market is a mess. It has lost nearly 50% over a 20-month period, and for close to a decade few people want anything to do with stocks.1 Economic growth is weak, which results in rising unemployment that eventually reaches double-digits.2 3

The easy-money policies of the American central bank—designed to generate full employment by the early 1970s—also resulted in high inflation.4 5 The central bank (once under different leadership) would later reverse its policies, raising interest rates to some 20%—a number once considered usurious.6 For interest-sensitive industries, such as housing and cars, rising interest rates cause a calamity. With interest rates skyrocketing, many people are priced out of new cars and homes
 
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ManofOne

Plus Member
XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) reports deliveries of 12,964 vehicles in Q4 as the growth continues to rev up. Deliveries for all of 2020 were 27,041.

Deliveries of the P71 model reached 8,527 in Q4, representing an increase of 37.3% from a year ago.

The company notes that XPeng-branded super charging stations expanded to 159 in 2020, covering 54 cities.

Total Smart EV deliveries reached 6,015 units in January (+470% Y/Y). Total Smart EV deliveries reached 2,223 units in February 2021 (+1,281%). For Q1, XPeng expects deliveries to be approximately 12,500 vehicles (+450%).

XPEV +0.55% premarket to $28.18 after mixed Q4 report.


Looks like I made the right call to buy XPEV still gonna reduce my holdings bit slightly
 
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