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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Anyone have an opinion on energizer? It’s near the 52 week low and pays a 30 cent dividend soon.

Maybe a solid long term bet.
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Careful with Discord. Their model isn't very sustainable. Besides merch and data, the only other way for them to make money is through "boosts." They're not marketing that very much and not many people are willing to pay for said boosts.

I already flopped with Virgin Galactic. SpaceX probably will have a better time due to their constant contracts.
I know members of the founding team, and they are pretty talented, so I am confident they will deliver something eventually.

Also, I agree that SpaceX is a safe'ish bet, if anything just due to the cult of Musk.

Anyway, I put my interest for options in both, but I don't know if I am in a queue or how frequently employees get rid of their stock.
 

zeorhymer

Member
Anyone have an opinion on energizer? It’s near the 52 week low and pays a 30 cent dividend soon.

Maybe a solid long term bet.
Energizer Holdings. My opinion....short version, omg no. Looking at the past year, they have been in a decline even breaking the floor quite badly. I predict a short rebound and then it will fall back down. Some analysts will say it'll go to 58 within a year (which is wild), but I think it's something of short term thing (3-9 months perhaps).
 
Energizer Holdings. My opinion....short version, omg no. Looking at the past year, they have been in a decline even breaking the floor quite badly. I predict a short rebound and then it will fall back down. Some analysts will say it'll go to 58 within a year (which is wild), but I think it's something of short term thing (3-9 months perhaps).
Yeah there doesn’t seem to be a lot of confidence in the company but it is cheap relatively and they’ve been around a while.

Just something i’ve been thinking about, need to do more research.
 

Fools idol

Banned
Spend some bags today on the next generation of my portfolio.


loaded 3,000 shares of $DE, 1,000 more shares of $CDNS, 1,000 more shares of $PYPL, and a new position, 10,000 shares of $SOFI.

I am now cash poor for a while. Hope it works out. Sold the last one of my rental properties, glad as fuck to be out of that time sinking shit all together. Don't become a landlord if you value your time, kids.
 
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betrayal

Banned
I am now cash poor for a while. Hope it works out. Sold the last one of my rental properties, glad as fuck to be out of that time sinking shit all together. Don't become a landlord if you value your time, kids.

I don't know where you're coming from, but depending on the type of properties, you can outsource the whole thing over to third-party contractors who then do all the work. Sure, it not for free, but in my opinion and my own experience it is well worth the money. It has always taken a lot of time depending on the number of properties/apartments, but since I outsourced it, it only amounts to a few hours...per year.
 

Ellery

Member
It is basically a given that inflation data tomorrow will be "manipulated" or shown in a light that shows it being below expectations considering politics and everything, right?
Supposed to be new CPI weighting?

Expectations are like 7%+ or something. Will probably come in lower than that.

Stocks/tech is performing mysteriously well today too.
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
It is basically a given that inflation data tomorrow will be "manipulated" or shown in a light that shows it being below expectations considering politics and everything, right?
Supposed to be new CPI weighting?

Expectations are like 7%+ or something. Will probably come in lower than that.

Stocks/tech is performing mysteriously well today too.
From what I read, the fix is already in. Expecting 7% is too high a bar, so anything below will be taken as great news, and confirmation that inflation is under control.

I wish I had bought more during last week, but there is still a small chance that CPI will beat expectations and all hell will break loose.
 
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zeorhymer

Member
It is basically a given that inflation data tomorrow will be "manipulated" or shown in a light that shows it being below expectations considering politics and everything, right?
Supposed to be new CPI weighting?

Expectations are like 7%+ or something. Will probably come in lower than that.

Stocks/tech is performing mysteriously well today too.
Doesn't matter really. Anything past 5 is a disaster due to disasterous job numbers.
 
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GHG

Member
Well at least now if the market dumps after the CPI data "manipulation" and "rigged" will be the words of the day.
 

GHG

Member
chrome-Y2jd-G2-B38-V.png



Unsolved Mysteries Falling GIF by FILMRISE
 

Fools idol

Banned
LOL

"inflation is transitory!"

to be honest though I don't think it will hurt the high growth names much from here. They aldeady got slaughtered
 

Ellery

Member
Looks like I was wrong lol.

One has to wonder what the real legit inflation really is. Looking at things at the store and basically everything everywhere it feels more like 15-20%, but that is purely anecdotal
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I was not expecting that. Cloudflare is pumping my portfolio up right now, but it's going to be dark soon.
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I just turned that 140k of calls on $NET doubled from the close yesterdsy 🤣
I am up on the one call I put yesterday too. I was such a fool for not believing that dip to 90 was such a good opportunity. I wish I had been greedier, but whatever.
 

zeorhymer

Member
Wasn't too bad. Managed to get out of a lot tech, energy looks good, threw the dice at Disney and their razzle dazzle didn't fail me. Everything is Gucci.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Oh dear Affirm. Earnings leaked early.

At least we can't say this earnings season has been dull.
Social media is the best! I was wondering what happened based on your post..... Gotta get out those tweets!

 
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Fools idol

Banned
very very nice numbers from Cloudflare. Up 7% after hours but will likely fade with the market tomorrow.

Overall I am happy to keep buying shares and DCA for the rest of the year on that one. Will see where we are in 2025
 
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betrayal

Banned
Looks like I was wrong lol.

One has to wonder what the real legit inflation really is. Looking at things at the store and basically everything everywhere it feels more like 15-20%, but that is purely anecdotal

Of course, inflation is higher than 6%. This is simply due to the constant changes in the calculation of the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which is used for calculating the inflation.

Foods and goods, which are used to determine the CPI, are exchanged regularly. Often, food with a higher price increase is replaced by food with a lower price increase to reflect the changing buying behaviour of the people. On the one hand, this is of course understandable, but on the other hand, this greatly distorts the results you get when you calculate inflation.

If you see prices in the supermarket or even in other areas of your life that have risen by 15%, it may well be real and not a feeling. But exactly these foods or goods, which are strongly affected by price increases, are no longer included in the CPI (which is the primary indicator of inflation), because they have long since been replaced by cheaper ones, because people adapt and also buy cheaper foods & goods.

So at the end the 6% inflation are quite "real", but only because people have adapted and are turning to other cheaper goods and the CPI adjusts to this. If you were to take a sample purchase for the CPI from 1980 or 2000 as a basis, then you would easily get 15-20% inflation.

The current system for calculating inflation is simply not a good one, and so far little thought has been given to alternatives. If people adjust their purchasing behavior as a result of rising prices, then of course the underlying data used to calculate the CPI must also change. It's like the classic chicken or egg causality dilemma. Which was first, the chicken or the egg?

I can also understand why politicians are reluctant to tackle this issue. Because as soon as you want to solve the problem, the current government is fucked, even if they are not responsible for it.
 

Fools idol

Banned
I've a friend who actually works at a think tank for macro economics and their data is showing closer to 35% real inflation. 7.5% is not even close to the dangerous reality. The tell is the fed is holding an emergency meeting this week to figure out what is next. They are likely panicking big time.

Never forget that the fall of Rome started with inflation. Dark times ahead.
 
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Ellery

Member
I've a friend who actually works at a think tank for macro economics and their data is showing closer to 35% real inflation. 7.5% is not even close to the dangerous reality. The tell is the fed is holding an emergency meeting this week to figure out what is next. They are likely panicking big time.

Never forget that the fall of Rome started with inflation. Dark times ahead.

I could only give my anecdotal experience on this on one industry. I work at a car parts retailer and I do nothing but upload excel price sheets of each supplier into our system and since dec/january I have basically been doing this for every single supplier and some of them have easily raised their prices by 20-40%. Everyone at least by 10-15% and I live in europe where the ECB is acting even more stupid than the FED and we are kinda a few months behind and it might get worse in the next 2 months when Lagarde realizes "oops not transitory".

Wouldn't be shocked at all if real inflation is significantly higher considering the prices I see in the stores are up significantly. Everything goes from like 1,99 to 2,29 or shrinkflation. My favourite Maltesers went from 175g to 148.5g.
The average person just doesn't realize it and only hears of inflation from the headlines of tabloids, but even the "normies" are talking about it a lot at the moment and they usually never get those things.
There are some things that are still the same price, maybe leftovers from last year that haven't left the shelves yet, but it definitely feels like the important things we pay most our money on is up up up.

Thanks for sharing btw. Always cool to hear those things from other people, where they work etc.
 

hollams

Gold Member
I bought a pair of high end subwoofers in August last year and paid $900 more than a couple of months prior. Today its up $500 more than I paid for it. Crazy thing is they are usually sold out.
 

Fools idol

Banned
this is going to get really ugly, really fast if political tensions escalate. All technical and fundamentals go flying out of the window in situations like this.
 

GHG

Member
If any of you are not familiar with the VIX yet then I suggest you get familiar with it.

If tensions don't ease over the weekend we could see some wild action next week and I'd say the VIX is the only guide you should be using to determine when it's safe to buy, double down and even triple down on stocks that hit your buy price targets. If the S&P makes a clean break through 4200 all hell will break loose.

For now at least, inflation is no longer the primary concern.
 
BILL Bill.com recent had some amazing earnings.

Organic YoY Growth: 59% -> 63% -> 73% -> 78% -> 86%

Q2 Core Revenue Increased 197% Year-Over-Year

Q2 Organic Core Revenue Increased 85% Year-Over-Year

Q2 Transaction Fees Increased 313% Year-Over-Year

Q2 Organic Transaction Fees Increased 121% Year-Over-Year

DDOG Datadog also had amazing earnings

Last 4 quarters YoY growth. 51%,67%,75%, and now 84%.

non-GAAP Gross Profit
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 $88,35
2020 $105,25 $111,81 $121,53 $137,61
2021 $153,03 $178,28 $209,96 $261,97

% YoY (non-GAAP Gross Profit)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019
2020 55,8%
2021 45,4% 59,5% 72,8% 90,4%

non-GAAP Gross Margin
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 77,7%
2019 80,2% 79,9% 78,6% 77,5%
2020 77,1% 76,3% 77,8% 80,4%

Operating Cash Flow (Net cash providing by operting activities)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 -$0,44 $17,43
2020 $24,26 $24,74 $36,27 $23,83
2021 $51,70 $51,70 $67,40 $115,79


Operating Cash Flow % Revenues
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 0,0% -0,5% 0,0% 15,3%
2020 18,5% 17,7% 23,4% 13,4%
2021 26,0% 22,1% 25,0% 35,5%


Free Cash Flow
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 -$5,53 $10,86
2020 $19,31 $18,60 $28,64 $16,65
2021 $44,50 $42,30 $57,10 $106,68

FCF Margin
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 0,0% -6,6% 0,0% 9,6%
2020 14,7% 13,3% 18,5% 9,4%
2021 22,4% 18,1% 21,1% 32,7%

non-GAAP Operating Income
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 -$5,47 $7,87
2020 $16,33 $15,34 $13,81 $18,12
2021 $19,56 $30,90 $44,00 $70,60

Operating Margin
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 0,0% -6,6% 0,0% 6,9%
2020 12,4% 11,0% 8,9% 10,2%
2021 9,8% 13,2% 16,3% 21,7%

non-GAAP Net Income
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 -$5,43 $11,03
2020 $19,03 $17,45 $15,99 $19,08
2021 $20,15 $32,00 $44,27 $70,17

Net Income Margin
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 0,0% -6,5% 0,0% 9,7%
2020 14,5% 12,5% 10,3% 10,7%
2021 10,1% 13,7% 16,4% 21,5%

Non-GAAP EPS (diluted)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 -$0,07 $0,06
2020 $0,06 $0,05 $0,05 $0,06
2021 $0,06 $0,09 $0,13 $0,20

Excuse the formatting but it isn't hard to see every metric is rapidly growing. Datadog is my largest position. Bill.com is #8 and growing. Looking forward to UPST Upstart and ZI ZoomInfo earnings this week. Hopefully they are wiped away from fed scares or Russia like what happened with NET Cloudflare's earnings.
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.

Somehow this escaped my radar. I knew it was coming this year, but it is official now. A share split will blow up the price. Apparently a similar one is coming for Amazon.
 

GHG

Member

Somehow this escaped my radar. I knew it was coming this year, but it is official now. A share split will blow up the price. Apparently a similar one is coming for Amazon.

I'll be picking some up after the split once the dust settles. I don't see many things maintaining upwards momentum in the current market conditions, especially not a stock that is as heavily weighted and correlated like Google is.
 
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