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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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I think trading will be halted on the Dow by the end of the day.
 
Duke Togo said:
- 500 now! I wonder if they'll hit the red button before 777....

Just as a note: not sure how many people thought about it, but a 777 point drop now would be a larger % drop than the first 777 drop. When does the panic button step in?
 

Duke Togo

Member
CharlieDigital said:
Just as a note: not sure how many people thought about it, but a 777 point drop now would be a larger % drop than the first 777 drop. When does the panic button step in?
Good point. It just went from -545 to -560, they'll probably have to stop it sooner than later.
 

Ether_Snake

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U.S. officials called for a "forceful and coordinated" global response to the credit crisis on Monday as financial market confidence cratered despite another heavy dose of central bank lending.

The U.S. Federal Reserve said it would begin paying interest on reserves banks hold at the Fed, a move that would allow it to keep flooding markets with cash without driving its benchmark federal funds rate below target.

http://www.reuters.com/article/gc06/idUSTRE4954BI20081006
 

dionysus

Yaldog
CharlieDigital said:
Just as a note: not sure how many people thought about it, but a 777 point drop now would be a larger % drop than the first 777 drop. When does the panic button step in?

I believe it is, but couldn't find the source online.

10% drop, suspend trading for 1 hour.

15% drop, suspend trading for 2 hours.

20% drop, suspend for the rest of the day.

The NYSE was suspended for 4 1/2 months by the way at the start of WWII, just an FYI.
 
sun_apocalypse1500.jpg
 

avaya

Member
HSBC stopping bottom falling out of FTSE.

Anyone see the Bloomberg report on them?

HSBC grew deposits 5% this year. Only bank in Europe to be up for the year. Better return than gold and treasuries. ADR is only down 3% for the year on NYSE, US banks are down >20%.

True safe-haven bank. Profits from massive diversification across Asia and Latin America. Very conservative lender, only bank to lend out less than the amount of deposits they have, lending at 90 cents on the dollar.

Number subprime lender though. But unaffected due to sheer awesomeness.

The more the shit hits the fan. The better HSBC do.

Bank of the forever.
 

Tarazet

Member
Sold out of my HSBC puts for a 25% profit, still trying to get out of my Barclays puts. C'mon, the stock is down 11%! It's only 2 dollars away from strike price!

Nice thing about options trading is you don't automatically get a sick feeling in your stomach every time you see red numbers. :lol
 

Ether_Snake

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So Bush might leave office with the Dow lower than when he came in.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
speculawyer said:
That was the question last month. Now it seems to be "How much lower will the Dow be than when he came in."

Can we keep the politics where it belongs, not in a stock-age thread. Also, to blame this on Bush is quite frankly the most narrow minded view ever. In fact, Bush's administration, both regulators and the Fed, and Clinton's Fed were the ones arguing for way more oversite of GSEs and the housing bubble. It was Congress that loved to protect their unholy golden children and encourage "affordable housing." If you want to point the finger of blame at government, it rightly falls more on Congress and the Fed than any president. Congress killed any attempt to regulate housing or raise standards in lending. Not to mention it was a global problem of cheap credit, every country was in on the madness. Just look at what is happening in Europe, Brazil, Russia, etc etc.
 

Vieo

Member
This crazy dude told me the economy has gotten so bad, some expensive high-end stores in N.Y. (the type of places rich people casually walk into and drop $5,000 without blinking) are no longer accepting U.S. currency. You've probably got to pay them in Euros or gold!
 

dionysus

Yaldog
Vieo said:
This crazy dude told me the economy has gotten so bad, some expensive high-end stores in N.Y. (the type of places rich people casually walk into and drop $5,000 without winking) are no longer accepting U.S. currency. You've probably got to pay them in Euros or gold!

Well, forcing people to pay in Euros would be pretty dumb, as the currency is in free fall.
 

Tarazet

Member
And I'm out of my puts. I swear, selling out of the money options is like pulling teeth, even when the market is this far down. At least now I'm making headway.. what a crazy experience.
 

lil smoke

Banned
Vieo said:
This crazy dude told me the economy has gotten so bad, some expensive high-end stores in N.Y. (the type of places rich people casually walk into and drop $5,000 without blinking) are no longer accepting U.S. currency. You've probably got to pay them in Euros or gold!
That's stupid. I'd just say "ok" and walk out and buy nothing. Average rent is like $8000/month for a storefront boutique. Watch how long they last with that attitude.
 

Ether_Snake

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Ubisoft dropped 16%.

Soon it will have lost half its value in around 6 months.
 

ArtG

Member
dionysus said:
As a value investor, it is so hard to resist these valuations. But with the DOW going to 7k, I am holding strong.

I feel you, man. I'm looking at the prices on these stocks and thinking..."These are great values...how much further down can we go?"

Problem is that I've been thinking that for a month or two and they keep falling. Just glad that I haven't pulled the trigger yet, and probably won't until the terrible quarterly earnings numbers come out and kill the stock market further.
 

Ether_Snake

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Seriously the next two weeks will be terrible, earnings galore.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Seriously the next two weeks will be terrible, earnings galore.

There is the chance that if disastrous earnings/forecasts are already priced-in, merely terrible earnings/forecasts might yield a bump.
 

Tarazet

Member
gkrykewy said:
There is the chance that if disastrous earnings/forecasts are already priced-in, merely terrible earnings/forecasts might yield a bump.

I'm feeling the same way, especially as far as tech stocks are concerned.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
gkrykewy said:
There is the chance that if disastrous earnings/forecasts are already priced-in, merely terrible earnings/forecasts might yield a bump.

At this point I think looking at what is priced in or not is fairly pointless, I think the market is trading on fear and emotion. Fundamentals don't matter.

That being said, I am expecting earnings to be decent but outlooks to be horrendous. Earnings are lagging indicators. But the cost of borrowing for companies is going to drive the forward projections way down, not to mention a slowing consumer hurting business.
 

gkryhewy

Member
dionysus said:
At this point I think looking at what is priced in or not is fairly pointless, I think the market is trading on fear and emotion. Fundamentals don't matter.

That being said, I am expecting earnings to be decent but outlooks to be horrendous. Earnings are lagging indicators. But the cost of borrowing for companies is going to drive the forward projections way down, not to mention a slowing consumer hurting business.

Of course, of course, of course - all correct. All I'm saying is that "normal" earnings/outlooks (i.e., ones that don't anticipate an apocalypse) may be just what the doctor ordered in restoring some calm/predictability to the markets.

I'm not buying or anything - it's just a thought.

EDIT: Also, I do NOT think the DOW will get anywhere near 7,000. If the DOW falls to anywhere in that range, we'll all have bigger problems than portfolio losses in the hundreds or thousands of dollars.
 

Davidion

Member
gkrykewy said:
EDIT: Also, I do NOT think the DOW will get anywhere near 7,000. If the DOW falls to anywhere in that range, we'll all have bigger problems than portfolio losses in the hundreds or thousands of dollars.

Interestingly enough, I've a friend who did some analysis a couple of years ago and consistently found the 7,000 range to be exactly where the market should be.

I'm sure it should be at about 8-9k by now, but according to some this is practically logical correction.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Davidion said:
Interestingly enough, I've a friend who did some analysis a couple of years ago and consistently found the 7,000 range to be exactly where the market should be.

I'm sure it should be at about 8-9k by now, but according to some this is practically logical correction.

This is consistent with my new rule of investing - whatever I say or think, you will profit by doing precisely the opposite. If I say something is oversold, sell the hell out of it. If I think something is a good buy, and ESPECIALLY if I've bought it, short the hell out of it.
 

lil smoke

Banned
gkrykewy said:
This is consistent with my new rule of investing - whatever I say or think, you will profit by doing precisely the opposite. If I say something is oversold, sell the hell out of it. If I think something is a good buy, and ESPECIALLY if I've bought it, short the hell out of it.
:lol Welcome to my club. Take your coat off and have a seat!
 
Ether_Snake said:
Ubisoft dropped 16%.

Soon it will have lost half its value in around 6 months.
The entire videogame sector has been raped (like everyone). It is kinda surprising since they are one of the few growing markets, most of the big videogame companies have no debt (and thus not affected by credit crunch directly), and have proved to be recession-proof.

However . . . are they depression proof? :lol Gotta laugh or else you'll cry.
 
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