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[Ether_Snake]

I almost went and bought 100 more ATVI shares but then remembered that the CAD is so low now that it would cost me 1400 for 100 shares at 1000 USD.

Fuck that.

Bush administration looking into getting bailout support for US automakers.

But wait a minute, didn't we give them a whole bunch of money earlier?


Hmmmm... :/

I'm sure they'll be happy to have the gov intervene before they merge.

 

[Huzah]

Wow, the VW situation is like... clear market manipulation. Good thing Germany has lax laws on that am i rite? lol.

 

[Ether_Snake]

CGT down 8% on no news...



I wish I had access to a time capsule so I could wake up when things are fine.

Shorting is the only to make money these days.

EDIT: Every refresh brings up lower DOW.

 

[ArtG]

Yeeesh.

 

[gkryhewy]

Dead linear selloff right at 3:59. Fucking hedge funds.

 

[RumblingRosco]

What the fuck just happened to my 8%+ gains on MMM? I am going to fuck someone up. :lol

Actually, what just happened to my portfolio and the stock market in general.

 

[Tarazet]

Dead linear selloff right at 3:59. Fucking hedge funds.

Maybe I should just buy everything at 3:59 and 3/4. It's always the lowest point of the day.

 

[ArtG]

Maybe I should just buy everything at 3:59 and 3/4. It's always the lowest point of the day.

Probably a good plan.
Though, buying anything is probably not a good idea anymore. There seems to be no end in sight for this free-fall.

(Stocks should go up now. I'm pretty much always wrong about market moves.)

 

[Ether_Snake]

Let's short everything!

 

[RumblingRosco]

Probably a good plan.
Though, buying anything is probably not a good idea anymore. There seems to be no end in sight for this free-fall.

(Stocks should go up now. I'm pretty much always wrong about market moves.)

I've made 400% gains off your false-predictions, I hope you know! Buy when ArtG says sell, sell when ArtG says buy!

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Let's short everything!

SZK and SCC ftw. Betting against Christmas should feel wrong, but the money will wash away your guilt.

 

[ArtG]

I've made 400% gains off your false-predictions, I hope you know! Buy when ArtG says sell, sell when ArtG says buy!

I think I deserve some of those gains, sir. I'm GAF's Jim Cramer.

 

[Tarazet]

Probably a good plan.
Though, buying anything is probably not a good idea anymore. There seems to be no end in sight for this free-fall.

(Stocks should go up now. I'm pretty much always wrong about market moves.)

Well, buying hasn't been a good idea for about a year now. If you were bullish on the market at any point between 2006 and now, you were wrong. The idea that you could be right on exactly the right day, to pick exactly the right day to be a bull to maximize your returns, that would be like winning the lottery. If you're going to buy, buy some now, then some more in three months, and some more in six months.

 

[Ether_Snake]

UltraShort Financials ProShares 8.66%
UltraShort S&P500 ProShares 5.79%
ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS 10.18%
ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA 11.47%

 

[gkryhewy]

I think we're due for at least a short-term bounce. October is almost over, after all :lol

I wouldn't short anything right now, actually.

 

[ArtG]

I think we're due for at least a short-term bounce. October is almost over, after all :lol

I wouldn't short anything right now, actually.

That's what I'm banking on, or I'll be eating a pretty substantial loss on these options I'm holding. :lol

 

[gkryhewy]

That's what I'm banking on, or I'll be eating a pretty substantial loss on these options I'm holding. :lol

What's pretty substantial? Most people are eating losses this year, unless they bet on Obama :lol . Well, non-options holders can just wait it out.

VIX was down today, which is apparently unusual for a Monday lately: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/10/fear-is-on-decline.html

EDIT: Well crap, VIX actually closed at a record high with that last 10 minute hedgie plummet: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/10/record-close-for-vix-8006.html

 

[ArtG]

What's pretty substantial? Most people are eating losses this year, unless they bet on Obama :lol . Well, non-options holders can just wait it out.

VIX was down today, which is apparently unusual for a Monday lately: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/10/fear-is-on-decline.html

It's more percentage than actual dollar amount. But after today, about 65%.

I'm banking on the volatility of the market to bring me back. I'm invested in PM and CSCO, two companies that are (IMO) undervalued and have been unnecessarily beaten up--so, we'll see sometime in November if I break-even, make a small profit, or lose my money. :lol

 

[gkryhewy]

It's more percentage than actual dollar amount. But after today, about 65%.

I'm banking on the volatility of the market to bring me back. I'm invested in PM and CSCO, two companies that are (IMO) undervalued and have been unnecessarily beaten up--so, we'll see sometime in November if I break-even, make a small profit, or lose my money. :lol

Godspeed sir.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't think there is any upside to any stock purchase now until you catch a bottom. Good luck

BTW more Roubini from today (third video) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/

EDIT: oh and Iran to Barter Oil for Thai Rice. This is like when Pepsi was paid in vodka by the Soviet Union because they didn't want to be paid in dollars

 

[Ether_Snake]

BULLSHIT

CGT
-15.67%
After Hours: +10.09%

Stock manipulation

 

[Tarazet]

No wonder the hedge funds are losing so much money, they all try to sell everything in the last five minutes of the session, every single day.

 

[gkryhewy]

No wonder the hedge funds are losing so much money, they all try to sell everything in the last five minutes of the session, every single day.

If I understand it correctly, these are actually hedge fund redemptions from like a month ago that force them to sell within a certain amount of time. Makes it hard to know where the market actually is.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Or maybe edge funds are doing extremely short-term trading with stop orders at the price they paid for.

 

[Huzah]

BULLSHIT

CGT
-15.67%
After Hours: +10.09%

Stock manipulation

Sorry to say, that's just your normal midday trade, where you trade stock at day high and day low / 2, and is agreed upon prior to opening.

The stock is going to open -15% down tommorow +- whatever overnight equity movement there is.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't get it but whatever

 

[RumblingRosco]

Well in COOL's case I always said it was too volatile and that it wasn't a good idea to get rid of your ATVI shares to buy that They'll probably be bought out eventually, but no idea at what price.

Get rid of my ATVI shares? I haven't sold or gotten rid of any shares of any company in like 4 years, I just keep buying and buying! :lol

Not that buying and buying is exactly a good plan, but I am in no rush to cash-in on all these purchases. I'll just enjoy whatever dividends are left in the mean time.

 

[Huzah]

I don't get it but whatever

Easy, lets say big mutual fund A has 1000 shares of CGT, big mutual fund B wants 1000 shares of CGT. Instead of doing a market operation which will disrupt prices, they agree to sell/buy shares from each other at todays median market price, or (daily high + daily low) / 2. This occurs after the market closes.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Get rid of my ATVI shares? I haven't sold or gotten rid of any shares of any company in like 4 years, I just keep buying and buying! :lol

Not that buying and buying is exactly a good plan, but I am in no rush to cash-in on all these purchases. I'll just enjoy whatever dividends are left in the mean time.

Oh I thought you sold them, I remember you said you were planning to sell them to buy COOL. Good thing you still have them then, ATVI is my only gain (but for how long? they are about to go to pre-merger levels).

STP is now cheaper than its IPO. Stupid markets of crap.

Huzah: Why would they do that tho? Whoever bought after the close has bought at 25% OVER the close price.

 

[gkryhewy]

Bout time.

Yen Falls Against Dollar, Euro as Bank of Japan May Intervene
By Ron Harui

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell amid speculation Japan's central bank will sell its own currency for the first time since March 2004.

 

[Huzah]

Oh I thought you sold them, I remember you said you were planning to sell them to buy COOL. Good thing you still have them then, ATVI is my only gain (but for how long? they are about to go to pre-merger levels).

STP is now cheaper than its IPO. Stupid markets of crap.

Huzah: Why would they do that tho? Whoever bought after the close has bought at 25% OVER the close price.

Because they agreed to buy it before the open? The transaction just occurs after the close, so they know the daily high and low.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Because they agreed to buy it before the open? The transaction just occurs after the close, so they know the daily high and low.

Bah, sounds suspicious.

EDIT: Oil falling moreso, below 60 this week?

 

[Anthropic]

Is now a time to open a retirement account?

I'm thinking of opening up a Roth IRA at Vanguard and putting it into VFINX, the S&P500 index fund, and then putting in $100/month after the initial $3000.

The way I see it, I'm 24, which is supposed to be prime time to start saving for retirement, and the markets are at historic lows, so this makes sense.

I work at an Ohio government job, so I pay into OPERS, but it's clear to me that at best, I'll need more for retirement, and at worst I may not stay in a government job for 25-30 years.

 

[ArtG]

Is now a time to open a retirement account?

I'm thinking of opening up a Roth IRA at Vanguard and putting it into VFINX, the S&P500 index fund, and then putting in $100/month after the initial $3000.

The way I see it, I'm 24, which is supposed to be prime time to start saving for retirement, and the markets are at historic lows, so this makes sense.

I work at an Ohio government job, so I pay into OPERS, but it's clear to me that at best, I'll need more for retirement, and at worst I may not stay in a government job for 25-30 years.

For the long term, this is probably a great time to hop into the market.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Is now a time to open a retirement account?

I'm thinking of opening up a Roth IRA at Vanguard and putting it into VFINX, the S&P500 index fund, and then putting in $100/month after the initial $3000.

The way I see it, I'm 24, which is supposed to be prime time to start saving for retirement, and the markets are at historic lows, so this makes sense.

I work at an Ohio government job, so I pay into OPERS, but it's clear to me that at best, I'll need more for retirement, and at worst I may not stay in a government job for 25-30 years.

Yep, tell yourself that most people out there have been contributing during the past two bubbles, so you can't really be wrong starting now that we are going down or near possible bottom.

I really have to call the bank in which my 401k equivalent is, I need to figure out how to change what I'm investing into online.

 

[nextgeneration]

I can't believe how much Nintendo stock has fallen. It closed at 33.15 and is down big time yet again in Japan. It's lost 57.77% of its value in one year and at its current price point, appears to be heavily undervalued right now. I'm picking up more shares, as the current price point is not reflective of what the stock should be worth. But again, you can probably say that for a lot of the companies out there, as everything is getting pummeled right now. But some of these companies are getting pummeled for the wrong reasons, and I feel that Nintendo is one of them.

Anyone have any comments or thoughts on this?

 

[Ether_Snake]

My only comment is that everything is getting killed, and that there is no way to know how the stock markets will go from the top of the bubble.

V

U

or

L

Who knows, and who knows for how long each side of the letters will last. No one knows anything at this point. We could have further down to go, we could be close to the bottom. At this point there is no way to know. As long as you have like 6 months of expenses in the bank I guess you'll do good in investing.

Personally, call me crazy cause I've always been bearish on the Wii in the long run, but I feel that a good chunk of their sales rely on shaky support which could vanish as quickly as it materialized during an economic downturn. Hard core gamers are gonna buy RE5, GoW2, WoW, etc. Not sure if those Petz and Cakez games are going to sell as much in the next few months. The Wii itself though, being cheaper than the other two consoles would have more chances to sell as a Christmas gift.

But yeah Nintendo is definitly cheap right now, no doubt about. So I would say better safe than sorry, and safe would be now (if you are thinking long term, like years away from selling), sorry would be if it was at the bottom tomorrow and you bought a month later

 

[nextgeneration]

My friend's friend, who works in the banking industry, is expecting next year to be even worse. This is so gut wrenching right now. My 401k right now is down 40%. <shudders and cries>

 

[Ether_Snake]

There is no way to know. NO ONE knows, and no one can know.

 

[nextgeneration]

Yeah, I hear what you're saying. It just really, really sucks right now. This is probably going to be the worst recession of our lifetime.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Well let's hope it is, because you say recession I say opportunity!

But only because we're young.

And I should be doing more to seize the opportunity but I'm too lazy and tired:|

BTW Nikkei might fall bellow 7000 today, or tomorrow. It was at 13000 not long ago. It bounced up precisely on 7000 just a few minutes ago.

 

[nextgeneration]

Yeah, I fully agree that this is a buyer's market, but it just sucks so badly to see how much I've lost so far. Oh well, call me crazy, but I'm accumulating more Nintendo stock as we go. lol.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Personally, call me crazy cause I've always been bearish on the Wii in the long run, but I feel that a good chunk of their sales rely on shaky support which could vanish as quickly as it materialized during an economic downturn. Hard core gamers are gonna buy RE5, GoW2, WoW, etc. Not sure if those Petz and Cakez games are going to sell as much in the next few months. The Wii itself though, being cheaper than the other two consoles would have more chances to sell as a Christmas gift.

But yeah Nintendo is definitly cheap right now, no doubt about. So I would say better safe than sorry, and safe would be now (if you are thinking long term, like years away from selling), sorry would be if it was at the bottom tomorrow and you bought a month later

For the record, the cheapest 360 is actually cheaper than a Wii now adays, if I remember correctly. Otherwise, I see little slowing the Wii down... what I do see, though, is a console cycle close to or past 50% of its lifetime before the next wave of consoles come out, and as we all know very well, just because someone is top dog this generation does not mean they will be next generation.

Also, I except a relatively long and slow recovery to the markets. I'd be surprised if we see 12,000+ again anytime in the next 5-7 years.

As you've all said above, this is a buyer's market. If you're young, live it up, don't fret the reds, relish them. I'm intending to put ~90% of my non-essential money into the stock market in the coming year (with enough essential money to last me a good 6 months at the minimum), but my situation is a bit specialized I'd say as I'll be out of college with no debt and a healthy dose of savings available. Regardless, the point stands that people need to take the the fear-mongering lightly and make smart purchasing decisions. I really feel like this is the opportunity of a lifetime, at least personally.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I agree, I just wish I had a bigger income. I have almost no expenses and I deserve easily 20% more than what I make right now, but getting a 20% raise will be a pain in the ass, except I DO have all the backing I need to get it, 100% sure of this. The company lowballs everyone because no one fights or has the backing to get a higher salary. I have nothing but top notch evaluations even from tough managers. I hope that next April I can get my damn deserved decent salary.

Anyway as far as investment goes, I'll be looking at ETFs instead of only specific stocks, when it comes to markets I don't understand. For the game sector I've always made only great returns. But for the rest it hasn't be so hot. ATVI, ADSK, ERTS. Those are three companies I understand. The rest, like Aerospace or Oil & Gas or Solar will be ETFs.

 

[gkryhewy]

If the Japanese Gov't does act to weaken the yen, as they seem to be about to do, that should stabilize things for exporters marginally. Nintendo (and sony, and toyota, etc) are being hit with a triple whammy of strengthening yen (this particularly hurts their revenue from europe, since the euro/pound have declined 33% vs the yen), global slowdown, and credit crunch uncertainty.

IMO nintendo has been unfairly beaten down. I view it as sort of analogous to AAPL in growth and profitability, and AAPL has been quite stable in comparison.

I'm holding my NTDOY for now. As it stands, will probably open below $30 on the US markets tomorrow. Amazing! I would double down, but I'm not buying anything right now.

I agree with whoever said that the transition to a new console cycle presents some degree of risk. However, I still think we will have one or more big macro upswings in the next couple of months, which will provide opportunities to exit in better shape than we're in now, should you choose to do so.

Earnings are after today's nikkei close, btw.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Oh and Soka: I don't think the lifespan of the current consoles will be shortened, I think it will be the opposite. The current economic conditions would not allow Sony and MS to get back into the production of a new console to be released sooner than planned. Their best bet is to lower production costs as much as possible and stick to their plans for now. Meanwhile I think it is extremely likely that Sony and MS will work together to make the next generation console. There is no reason why Sony would not be in charge of the hardware and MS in charge of everything else service-wise. Of course, sound business decision means nothing in a short-term oriented economic model, but I think the MS/Sony console is more likely now than ever. Especially if Sony continues to lose to MS in Japan, psychologically it would reinforce the need to work together.

EDIT: BTW- Machinist union in tentative deal with Boeing. Finally!

 

[gkryhewy]

Oh and Soka: I don't think the lifespan of the current consoles will be shortened, I think it will be the opposite. The current economic conditions would not allow Sony and MS to get back into the production of a new console to be released sooner than planned. Their best bet is to lower production costs as much as possible and stick to their plans for now. Meanwhile I think it is extremely likely that Sony and MS will work together to make the next generation console. There is no reason why Sony would not be in charge of the hardware and MS in charge of everything else service-wise. Of course, sound business decision means nothing in a short-term oriented economic model, but I think the MS/Sony console is more likely now than ever.

:lol :lol Oh, you..

Not a chance. Agreed with your first statement, however.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Oh and Soka: I don't think the lifespan of the current consoles will be shortened, I think it will be the opposite. The current economic conditions would not allow Sony and MS to get back into the production of a new console to be released sooner than planned. Their best bet is to lower production costs as much as possible and stick to their plans for now. Meanwhile I think it is extremely likely that Sony and MS will work together to make the next generation console. There is no reason why Sony would not be in charge of the hardware and MS in charge of everything else service-wise. Of course, sound business decision means nothing in a short-term oriented economic model, but I think the MS/Sony console is more likely now than ever. Especially if Sony continues to lose to MS in Japan, psychologically it would reinforce the need to work together.

I don't think it'd be greatly shortened, but around 5 years from the release of the 360 (or even from the Wii/PS3) would be par for the course, I think? I mean, who knows really, you have a solid point about wanting to keep production costs low to recover from the repeated quarters of losses from expensive launches (in regards to the 360 and PS3). No way will Sony and Microsoft join forces though, I just don't see it happening. They're just too different of companies, and it'd be an extremely amazing business decision to go it together.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Well if they don't join forces then expect the cycle to be really long, unless MS is bold enough to spend money again just to push Sony out, in which case they would probably succeed the next time around, and at that point I get the impression Sony would be in no shape to even bother to battle. SNE has suffered immensely over the years, they have a big debt, MS does not.

MS' plan is to basically take a hold of the whole sector which Sony held, and bring the gaming part of the company closer and more integrated with the rest, but in the end this is all about software/services. They could join with Sony, with absolutely no risk because then they could go back to hardware production or team with someone else another generation from the next one and keep everything they've built, which is software/services. What prevents a company from ensuring success from one generation to the next is hardware. MS has every reason no to bother with hardware development, the losing side of the console business. Sony will never get anything out of the software/service side of console production because the software/services compete with MS AND others. On the other hand, if Sony wants to continue to be the ones making Blu-Rays and Cell processors or whatever else will replace it in the future and use the gaming/entertainment sector as a trojan horse to keep their position in that regard, then they have no alternatives. They CANNOT continuously throw money fighting a company that can actually afford to throw more without being in debt.

Doesn't mean it will happen, but I see no logical, sound-business alternative.

EDIT: Asian stocks up, US futures too: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQn0infCgvKg&refer=home

 

[Frankfurter]

Yeah only caught the change at the close, saw the Reuters wire and thought it was a bit crazy. Explains why some of our German desk were running around perplexed today. :lol

VW continued that crazy way today. It peaked at ~1000&#8364; per share, so going by market cap was afaik by far the largest company in the world. Currently it's at ~750&#8364;, so still 45% up compared to yesterday (where it had +150% :lol ).

Btw. apparently the reason for this crazy thing going on is that certain Hedge Fonds apparently need to buy Volkswagen at EVERY price to fulfill 'orders' or sth. like that by Porsche. I really don't get it, but some guys in German boards say that Porsche more or less trapped the Hedge Fonds by announcing their current state at overtaking VW (less than expected shares are still available on the market).