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[Tarazet]

Probably, but also I think that a major loss in the recent past leads to a strong desire for immediate short-term gains to make up for the recent loses, which leads to rallies when the market goes down to a certain level, only to lead to further drops soon after as people take their money out.

So we can expect, probably, even lower lows soon enough.

Nikkei up close to 600

The bottom is when nobody even wants to talk about the stock market. That hasn't happened yet, but there are a lot of people who have pulled their money out of equities, and particularly out of their 401(k)'s which kills stockholder value, and putting it into conservative investments because they're afraid of losing more money. I was listening to a call-in show on KGO a couple weeks back, and investor after investor was calling in asking if even money-market funds were safe anymore. The host was nailing the funds for even deigning to hold Lehman paper when it was becoming more and more likely that they would fold. The fear is real. It's up to those of us who are still young and have some cojones to brave the market and hope for the best.

 

[gkryhewy]

The bottom is when nobody even wants to talk about the stock market. That hasn't happened yet, but there are a lot of people who have pulled their money out of equities, and particularly out of their 401(k)'s which kills stockholder value, and putting it into conservative investments because they're afraid of losing more money. I was listening to a call-in show on KGO a couple weeks back, and investor after investor was calling in asking if even money-market funds were safe anymore. The host was nailing the funds for even deigning to hold Lehman paper when it was becoming more and more likely that they would fold. The fear is real. It's up to those of us who are still young and have some cojones to brave the market and hope for the best.

You can't talk about "cajones" when you only have 1k on the line, man :lol

I'm starting to think the real bottom will end up in the mid-8000s, and we'll hover around there for awhile.

 

[Tarazet]

You can't talk about "cajones" when you only have 1k on the line, man :lol

In my case, I'm getting ready to buy a home in the Bay Area. I almost did it this summer, but I'm doing it for sure in 2009.

 

[gkryhewy]

In my case, I'm getting ready to buy a home in the Bay Area. I almost did it this summer, but I'm doing it for sure in 2009.

Good for you! Drive a hard bargain. I imagine there will be new federal incentives for homebuying in 2009; possibly significant ones.

We have our eyes open here in Philly, but will probably keep renting (wife in graduate school).

 

[Deku Tree]

Good for you! Drive a hard bargain. I imagine there will be new federal incentives for homebuying in 2009; possibly significant ones.

We have our eyes open here in Philly, but will probably keep renting (wife in graduate school).

What is the market like in Philly?

I am getting ready to move there probably for the long term if things work out and am thinking about the to buy or to rent initially issue.

It seems smarter to rent for a while... on the other hand I don't want to move twice in a short period.

 

[avaya]

O/N Dollar LIBOR fell another 10bp today to 1.10%.

Keep it coming. Under 1% and it's go-go-go for interbank lending recovery.

50bp Fed cut already priced according to Cashin. 75bp being implied by the interest rate futures now.

 

[Tarazet]

Good for you! Drive a hard bargain. I imagine there will be new federal incentives for homebuying in 2009; possibly significant ones.

That's what I'm hoping for, and possibly even federal down-payment assistance programs.

We have our eyes open here in Philly, but will probably keep renting (wife in graduate school).

Renting will be fine for the next couple of years. I keep seeing properties that look amazingly low priced, but then I remember, it wasn't long ago that any single-family house on the peninsula could sell for $500K. Now the bottom of the barrel properties are fetching under $200K.

 

[gkryhewy]

What is the market like in Philly?

I am getting ready to move there probably for the long term if things work out and am thinking about the to buy or to rent initially issue.

It seems smarter to rent for a while... on the other hand I don't want to move twice in a short period.

Are you coming to the city itself or to the burbs? We live in an apartment in Center City. Definitely a buyer's market right now, but inventory is building whereas prices haven't come down all that much yet. Should be some good bargains in 09. On the other hand, I expect that once the housing market bottoms, it'll stay flat for YEARS (continuing to decline in inflation-adjusted terms, in other words). So I wouldn't hurry - rent for a year at least until you find a place you'd be comfortable buying in to stay for 5 years.

Because we are returning to a "normal" housing market, where you don't break-even on a home purchase unless you stay put for 4+ years and your equity grows enough to compensate for taxes/maintenance/insurance/transfer fees.

 

[Deku Tree]

Not sure yet, but probably Center City at least at first.

Your right, it's better to rent for at least a year so that we get a feel for the place.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Oil rising so BHI and STP are up 12%. FSLR earnings after the close, make or break solars.
Gold rising too, ABX up for another 8% today.
CGT up 10% also.

People say you need to invest now, but it's already too late if it doesn't fall further. There's 20% of gains in two days.

Some of the stuff I own would take a minimum of 5 years before it even breaks even. Missing a bottom would means I'm not gonna make money.

EDIT: lol, there's a stock ticker ORLY

EDIT2: Sony earnings were not good, in part due to strong yen.

EDIT3: Visa earnings after the market close.

 

[avaya]

Barclay's cancel Christmas Parties

I would like to inform you that we will not be holding our annual Seasonal parties this year. I know this might come as a disappointment to many of you, who look forward to the opportunity to relax among colleagues and celebrate a year of hard work and accomplishment. Perhaps more than any other year, you can be proud of your achievements despite extreme market conditions. Your focus, resilience, and attention to clients have allowed us to outperform the competition and continue to build the business as a result. The acquisition of the North American businesses of Lehman Brothers and the UK authorities' recent endorsement of our current capital strength and future capital raising plans would not have been possible without that performance. However, in the current difficult environment for our industry and for the economy as a whole, which affects not just financial services firms but our clients as well, it is not appropriate for us to do anything that might be seen as inappropriate by any of our stakeholders. We have therefore decided that there will be no firmwide or departmental Seasonal parties funded by the firm this year.

Thank you again for your hard work and focus on our clients.

Rich Ricci

http://dealbreaker.com/

 

[RumblingRosco]

People say you need to invest now, but it's already too late if it doesn't fall further. There's 20% of gains in two days.

I agree. Missed the boat on cheap stuff Monday; Tuesday/today is all green and seems not the time to buy to me, unless for some reason someone is convinced it's all going up from here. I just don't see that though, I'm certain it will be dropping back down again in the next few days.

All this green sure is pretty though.

Barclay's cancel Christmas Parties

Seems appropriate. Although not explicitly mentioned, companies are trying to save money all over the place, and a Christmas party isn't exactly a necessity in the grand scheme of things. A bummer for the employees, but I imagine most of them understand.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm hoping we won't have a Christmas party at out job this year too. A few years ago we had 5 floors of different types of foods, fifth floor was all desserts, and of course all free alcohol.

I prefer that the company keeps it money for raises or to ensure stability>:|

I doubt they will cancel it though, it's a big PR thing in the end "look at how cool we are".

 

[Tarazet]

People say you need to invest now, but it's already too late if it doesn't fall further. There's 20% of gains in two days.

Some of the stuff I own would take a minimum of 5 years before it even breaks even. Missing a bottom would means I'm not gonna make money.

I bought a lot of stuff on Monday, so I might have caught the bottom. This also might be a cliff ledge that we're bouncing off on the way to a deeper bottom. It doesn't matter much. If you're investing in the stock market right now, you better do it with money you're prepared to lose, hope for the best and not get too emotionally hung up on it.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I know but what I mean is that the drops are so steep that even buying after a big downturn, like it was a few weeks ago, means nothing if things fall much lower soon after, forcing you to throw more money at the markets otherwise 5 or 10 years from now you will have only broken even or made slight gains.

When markets fall so quickly it's difficult to shore up money on time to buy.

 

[Tarazet]

I know but what I mean is that the drops are so steep that even buying after a big downturn, like it was a few weeks ago, means nothing if things fall much lower soon after, forcing you to throw more money at the markets otherwise 5 or 10 years from now you will have only broken even or made slight gains.

When markets fall so quickly it's difficult to shore up money on time to buy.

That's getting too emotionally invested. If you feel driven to "make" money no matter what happens, you're going to make bad choices. That can mean buying into a stock on its way down - historically, any stock that's trending down will underperform any stock that's trending up. And there are stocks still trending up. Apple, for example, is still up 44% over two years. Amazon is up 80%. Wells Fargo is up 6%. Google has lost a mere 5%. Those are the kinds of stocks you can rely on.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I see AAPL up 25%, not 44%, over two years.

And you are looking at two years from the near-top of a bubble to what might not be the bottom of the downturn at all now.

EDIT: Look at AAPL, if you bought at $12 in 2000, which was near the bottom (bottom catching), you would have had to wait 5 years before breaking even. That's with catching a near bottom. The actual bottom was at $7, which came in a few weeks later. Buying at that would have led you to wait around 6 months to double your return.

That's why I say that when the markets go down so quickly, you run out of money as you buy what you see a undervalued stocks, but if markets continue to go down you miss a serious opportunity as a result.

Big players have the money coming in weekly. Not small investors like me.

EDIT: And look at that, feds cut rates, markets sell :lol

 

[Tarazet]

I see AAPL up 25%, not 44%, over two years.

And you are looking at two years from the near-top of a bubble to what might not be the bottom of the downturn at all now.

EDIT: Look at AAPL, if you bought at $12 in 2000, which was near the bottom (bottom catching), you would have had to wait 5 years before breaking even. That's with catching a near bottom. The actual bottom was at $7, which came in a few weeks later. Buying at that would have led you to wait around 6 months to double your return.

That was because of the tech bust, which led everyone to drop everything related to tech. Apple is now fairly valued based on how well they've strengthened their core business, and successfully entered new markets, in the past few years. And they've withstood the downturn pretty damn well.

EDIT: And look at that, feds cut rates, markets sell :lol

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

 

[Ether_Snake]

That was because of the tech bust, which led everyone to drop everything related to tech. Apple is now fairly valued based on how well they've strengthened their core business, and successfully entered new markets, in the past few years. And they've withstood the downturn pretty damn well.

Yeah but I'm not talking about AAPL specifically. There are a lot of good companies out there in the same situation, the problem is the markets are falling too quickly so if you don't have the money to buy when you want to your future gains are pushed back years away compared to if you could buy when you wanted to. Unless markets go up as quickly as they went down, which is extremely unlikely. We're gonna to be crawling for a while. You buy, and then a day or two later there's another 20% drop. Not buying then is a big mistake since you bought at 20% higher anyway, but what are you gonna do?

EDIT: Reuters says NY Attorney General Cuomo warns 9 banks due to receive funds from TARP that bonus payments may be illegal under NY state law: report

 

[avaya]

It's been a very normal day so far. Market has been range bound and is moving steadily.

The Hedge Funds might makle a cameo in the last 30mins.

 

[Ether_Snake]

It's been a very normal day so far. Market has been range bound and is moving steadily.

The Hedge Funds might makle a cameo in the last 30mins.

If Hedge Funds still want to play you know they're going to sell to go back to the previous low and try to create another rally later on, but as a result we would go steadily lower as confidence in upward trends weaken every time.

EDIT: WTF just happened? Major hike from 0 to 2%.

EDIT2: Dow at 9300, woo!

EDIT3: THERE YA GO! Damn.

 

[ArtG]

EDIT: WTF just happened? Major hike from 0 to 2%.

EDIT2: Dow at 9300, woo!

EDIT3: THERE YA GO! Damn.

This month in a nutshell.

 

[RumblingRosco]

If Hedge Funds still want to play you know they're going to sell to go back to the previous low and try to create another rally later on, but as a result we would go steadily lower as confidence in upward trends weaken every time.

EDIT: WTF just happened? Major hike from 0 to 2%.

EDIT2: Dow at 9300, woo!

EDIT3: THERE YA GO! Damn.

Hahaha, your edits were my thoughts exactly.

 

[Ether_Snake]

At least most the stuff in my portfolio that was high remained high.

Nice to see ADSK down at such times, gives me a chance to get back in when I have a chance.

 

[lil smoke]

I almost broke even with APPL... damn!

My bro lives in Philly. Seems like a great place to buy right now, as opposed to 6-7 years ago. All that corruption is starting to clear out, appreciation will happen in due time. Just don't move near the NJ/Camden border, where the opposite has been occuring.

Compared to northern NJ, homes values in Philly look very attractive, I keep telling my brother, who has been renting for the last 10 years there.

 

[Relix]

Epic freefall :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

FSLR up 16% in AH thanks to earnings as profit doubled. Maybe this will bring some confidence back in solars.

Net income rose to $99.3 million, or $1.20 per share, from $46 million, or 58 cents per share, in the third quarter of 2007, which included a $7.5 million income tax benefit related to German deferred tax assets.

Revenue also more than doubled to $348.7 million from $159 million in the year-ago period.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, on average, expected earnings of just $1.01 per share on revenue of $339.3 million.

STP was up 16% today and is up 9% in AH.

Let's hope (for me) that this clears things up for solars.

TAN (solar ETF) up 22% in AH. Too bad I'm far from breaking even on STP due to major recent drop of all solars.

EDIT: BTW I have a question about Carry Trading (just curious)

Here's an example of a "yen carry trade": a trader borrows 1,000 yen from a Japanese bank, converts the funds into U.S. dollars and buys a bond for the equivalent amount. Let's assume that the bond pays 4.5% and the Japanese interest rate is set at 0%. The trader stands to make a profit of 4.5% (4.5% - 0%), as long as the exchange rate between the countries does not change. Many professional traders use this trade because the gains can become very large when leverage is taken into consideration. If the trader in our example uses a common leverage factor of 10:1, then she can stand to make a profit of 45%.

How does the trader make his 4.5% profit? What does he sell? Is it contractual? And how can he get a 45% profit as explained at the end of the quote? I don't get the 10:1 leverage factor.

 

[Huzah]

FSLR up 16% in AH thanks to earnings as profit doubled. Maybe this will bring some confidence back in solars.



STP was up 16% today and is up 9% in AH.

Let's hope (for me) that this clears things up for solars.

TAN (solar ETF) up 22% in AH. Too bad I'm far from breaking even on STP due to major recent drop of all solars.

EDIT: BTW I have a question about Carry Trading (just curious)



How does the trader make his 4.5% profit? What does he sell? Is it contractual? And how can he get a 45% profit as explained at the end of the quote? I don't get the 10:1 leverage factor.

Easy, borrow 10000 yen using 1000 yen as collateral. You make 4.5% * 10000 / 1000 profit or 45%.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Easy, borrow 10000 yen using 1000 yen as collateral. You make 4.5% * 10000 / 1000 profit or 45%.

Argh, I need to study economics or something.

How can you use only 1000 yen as a collateral for 10000 yen? Or do you mean borrow 10000 dollars?

 

[sefskillz]

Argh, I need to study economics or something.

How can you use only 1000 yen as a collateral for 10000 yen? Or do you mean borrow 10000 dollars?

Pretty much how all Forex trading works. Forex trading used to only be for the richies, but in recent years it's gained huge popularity for smaller scale trading. This borrowing/collateral thing allows for that. The broker fronts you the extra cash, but you're never on the hook for anymore than what you put in, because they'll pull your money out if you're about to lose theirs... at least that's my understanding of it and I have very limited knowledge on Forex trading

 

[Ether_Snake]

Hmm I guess I just have a difficult time understand how they can give you so much for so little collateral. What's in it for them? A quick movement in currencies would cause them to lose money across the board wouldn't it?

 

[sefskillz]

Hmm I guess I just have a difficult time understand how they can give you so much for so little collateral. What's in it for them? A quick movement in currencies would cause them to lose money across the board wouldn't it?

I can't help you much, I would imagine if something like that happened they would go for a margin call. I dunno though. I'd look up something like 'marginal trading and forex' to learn more. Marginal trading happens in other things too, I've just only experienced it with forex.

I've bought a few books on Forex, but haven't really jumped into it much. I'm mostly interested by the trend analysis and programming custom analysis for some of the software used for automated trading.

 

[syllogism]

The initial q3 gdp estimate is -0.3%. Based on the rest of the data, I would be surprised if it wasn't revised down later.

e: consumer spending down 3.1%

 

[lil smoke]

alright alright.

Nice start. $101 net change already! Few thousand to go! CMON LETS DO THIS AAPL

 

[gkryhewy]

Nintendo missed estimates, lowered forecasts... but nothing dramatic considering everything. Stock back up to ~$40 USD. Will see how the nikkei reacts overnight.

Nintendo Cuts Outlook on Strong Yen
Associated Press

TOKYO -- Nintendo Co. said Thursday it posted a 9.4% gain in first-half profit but cut its full-year outlook as a surging yen undercut brisk sales of its popular Wii console and DS handheld device.

The Kyoto-based company booked net profit of ¥144.83 billion ($1.49 billion) in the April-September period. The result was higher than last year's ¥132.42 billion profit, though missed Nintendo's own expectations for ¥165 billion in profit.
[Nintendo unveiled the DSi, a new portable video game console which will go on sale in Japan Starting Nov. 1.] Getty Images

Nintendo's new portable video game console, the "DSi", which will go on sale in Japan Starting Nov. 1.

Sales in the first-half of the fiscal year increased 20% to ¥836.88 billion from ¥694.8 billion.

But Nintendo cut its annual net profit forecast by nearly 16% because of the yen's recent strength, which erodes overseas earnings. It now predicts a net profit of ¥345 billion for the fiscal year, down from ¥410 billion.

The outlook is based on an exchange rate of ¥100 to the dollar instead of ¥105. The yen recently soared to a 13-year high near ¥91 to the dollar but has since eased to about ¥98 to the dollar.

Despite the global slowdown that has squeezed other Japanese exporters, demand for Nintendo's products remains robust and the company's results are a relatively bright spot amid an otherwise bleak earnings season.

Its focus on attracting nontraditional gamers such as women and seniors has helped it enjoy stellar growth in recent years.

The company sold 10.1 million Wii units world-wide during the first half, up 38% from last year, and it said it expects to sell 34.55 million this fiscal year through March 2009. It sold 13.73 million "DS" handheld gaming systems, up 3% even though the device has been on the market for four years.

 

[lil smoke]

So no celebrations from people who bought AAPL at 90? Somebody must have made serious bucks.

I just broke even! I should pull out, and get back in when it tanks...hmmmm

 

[Tarazet]

So no celebrations from people who bought AAPL at 90? Somebody must have made serious bucks.

I just broke even! I should pull out, and get back in when it tanks...hmmmm

I bought some at $97, so I'm as surprised as anyone to see it appreciate so fast. But I'm holding.

 

[Ether_Snake]

RAIL up 10% after beating estimates
EXPE (Expedia) down 14% after earnings/forecast
ERTS earnings after the close (currently down)
BOOm earnings after the close (current up 10%)
IMMR earnings after the close, I bet they didn't make money again
MTW up 17%
VCP up 21%
ARA up 22%
ACH up 19%
MOT down 6% after earnings

I would have probably bought ERTS if I had the money now, even if they were to go down after earnings, I think it's low enough, altho they have risen significantly from their bottom this week, which means they could go back to 24 or so after poor earnings. Most seem to always expect more from video game earnings, I rarely see a stock up in the game sector even after good earnings reports.

Oh and XOM reported record profits of near 15billion.

EDIT: Geez, Petro Chian went from 58 to 74 in two days, and strangely enough it was up before earnings and didn't snap higher or lower after earnings (two days ago), it continued straight from where it left off.

 

[avaya]

O/N USD LIBOR is now 0.73%!!!

3m and 6m rate didn't move by that much.

GBP and EUR LIBOR is still ridiculous. That'll change next week

Q4 US GDP will be horrible.

Q4 earnings will be horrible.

That will prompt the next sell off and hopefully capitulation at the true bottom south of 7,800 for the DJIA and 650 for the S&P. I don't wanna guess the Nasdaq.

Apart from the Hedge Funds playing games in the last 30mins of every day this looks like a very different rally from anything we've seen so far.

Bank of Japan meets tomorrow (tonight). Hopefully they cut as expected and Nikkei sustains or sees only moderate losses. Reversal on the yen is crucial. The past 10days have been dominated by the yen and potential collapse of the Samurai market on Icelandic banks defaulting on their yen demoninated obligations.

Don't base your currency off the carry trade! That's how you get fucked and Iceland got fucked. The Japanese have a unique problem, the Kimono traders have serious leverage on the currency. Just ask the New Zealand central bank, the housewives negated all of their money market operations!

BofJ has to seriously consider the actions of the Japanese retail FX market :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't want to do any FOREX trading

But I was wondering, I have a US and CAD account on my bank to make investments, and I can put my money in either one. When I sell stocks, I can send the money in my USD account.

So if the CAD was very high, and I sold some share of a US company, I could send the money I made from selling the shares in the USD account and just let it wait there until the CAD dropped, to make more money no?

EDIT: Watch this, people will sell now so as to not get caught by the close-selling, so instead we'll go in the red 30 mins from the close

 

[avaya]

I don't want to do any FOREX trading

But I was wondering, I have a US and CAD account on my bank to make investments, and I can put my money in either one. When I sell stocks, I can send the money in my USD account.

So if the CAD was very high, and I sold some share of a US company, I could send the money I made from selling the shares in the USD account and just let it wait there until the CAD dropped, to make more money no?

Yes.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Nice. I'll be more careful next time, I used to just send the money straight in my bank account.

BTW it looks like I was wrong, we got a downturn as expected but ended up with a rally at the end, which makes sense. Should have expected that.

Fucking sucks tho that FSLR is up 20% on great earnings, and STP which opened 16% up as a result is now down 2%

 

[Relix]

Thank you market, you made me a nice profit today. Been a nice day, hopefully tomorrow it'll be like this.

 

[kathode]

ERTS taking a 9% dump after hours. They announced a global 20% reduction in workforce. Ouch!

Edit: Whoops, it's only a 6% reduction. But wow, down over 17% in AH trading now!

 

[Ether_Snake]

EA released their earnings. Not great, as expected on the development and marketing front. Like I said a while ago, their aim to invest in new IPs and basically "quality" would be a good move it won't offset the weight they have on their shoulders.

We'll see how Dead Space and Mirror's Edge will do in the end. I think they could do well, and it could lead to better years ahead, but it's going to continue to hurt to restructure the company, especially while ATVI and UBI are growing their shares of the market. They could also manage to make better games that sell more copies with these new IPs without ever being able to remain as big as they are, which is the likeliest scenario IMO. Basically they can manage to survive, but not turn the company around.

I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to go after Ubisoft.

 

[Tarazet]

I'll be buying some IR (Ingersoll-Rand) tomorrow to round out my portfolio. Last day of Zecco free trading too.

 

[jamesinclair]

As I entered the stock market last month, I have no idea when to sell.

ERJ $16.49 $21.94 33.05%

Should I wait?

My whole point was a long term investment....

Also, tomorrow...

Friday
October
Halloween


-900 anyone?

 

[Ether_Snake]

It's up to you, if you have a good feeling about the company you can hold, if you don't really know the industry you can sell.

The only stuff I hold for really long term are stocks from businesses I know well.

It's really up to you, your needs, your plans, your gut feeling

 

[Ether_Snake]

CGT up 9% today on no news apparent.

ATVI down 5% because of ERTS, ERTS down 15% because of earnings.

EDIT: :lol same scenario as yesterday, people start selling at 3:30 not to get caught at the end. I bet we'll see another rally before the close as people expect the same as yesterday to happen, but maybe followed by another drop 3 mins close to rally

 

[RumblingRosco]

AHR.

+1.03 (29.77%)

EDIT 1: +0.89 (25.72%)

EDIT 2: +0.83 (23.99%)

EDIT 3: After Hours: 4.44 +0.98 (28.32%)