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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Wellington said:
Uh.. I'm still shorting C. I did some profit-taking on my position today, but I still have a $12.50 put on it and I expect it to continue to gain value (that is, for the stock to continue to drop). They're drowning in debt, their balance sheet is frightening and in general they will probably underperform the market for years.
Ether_Snake
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U.S. has plundered world wealth with dollar: China paper
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE49N1XX20081024
You know this newspaper doesn't speak without the CCP's approval.
China and EU are scared of the rising dollar. They want to pull the rug out from under the US' feet quickly. And I believe they are scared-fucked of Obama. They don't want the US to get back on its feet, they view the current situation as an opportunity that came sooner than expected. There is a crossroad now; slowing world economy, rising dollar, falling commodity prices, and a new respected (likely) president that can unite the US and not step into the bear traps Bush walked onto.
They're panicking, so expect a lot of action in the new three weeks.
Also, from Bloomber:
Asia Backs EU's Call for Global Financial Overhaul in Victory for Sarkozy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5B.ffRG4SDc&refer=home
EDIT: BTW, I'm looking at bonds (don't know much about it). The Canada Savings Bonds are at less 3%, why would I go for that instead of putting my money in guaranteed return accounts (not sure what you call it in english) of 4% at my bank?
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE49N1XX20081024
You know this newspaper doesn't speak without the CCP's approval.
China and EU are scared of the rising dollar. They want to pull the rug out from under the US' feet quickly. And I believe they are scared-fucked of Obama. They don't want the US to get back on its feet, they view the current situation as an opportunity that came sooner than expected. There is a crossroad now; slowing world economy, rising dollar, falling commodity prices, and a new respected (likely) president that can unite the US and not step into the bear traps Bush walked onto.
They're panicking, so expect a lot of action in the new three weeks.
Also, from Bloomber:
Asia Backs EU's Call for Global Financial Overhaul in Victory for Sarkozy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5B.ffRG4SDc&refer=home
EDIT: BTW, I'm looking at bonds (don't know much about it). The Canada Savings Bonds are at less 3%, why would I go for that instead of putting my money in guaranteed return accounts (not sure what you call it in english) of 4% at my bank?
Ether_Snake
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Been reading more at Nakedcapitalism.com
Feels like things are about to get much worst, all depending on the actions to be taken after the Nov. 15 meeting. I think there will be no confidence to hold until then as bad news trickle in. Emerging economies are going to be the second shock, and I think that what we have seen so far might actually be the foreshock, not the earthquake itself. Europe is the next center stage.
I'm not putting another dime in the market. I'm not taking anything out either, but now I'm gonna stick to my words for a few weeks at least. Now might not be close to the bottom after all.
Feels like things are about to get much worst, all depending on the actions to be taken after the Nov. 15 meeting. I think there will be no confidence to hold until then as bad news trickle in. Emerging economies are going to be the second shock, and I think that what we have seen so far might actually be the foreshock, not the earthquake itself. Europe is the next center stage.
I'm not putting another dime in the market. I'm not taking anything out either, but now I'm gonna stick to my words for a few weeks at least. Now might not be close to the bottom after all.
RumblingRosco
Member
Ether_Snake said:
I don't think it's anywhere near the bottom, but it's low enough that I can buy in now and hold for 5-10 (or longer) years until it comes back up to make it well worth it at current prices. I'd love to know exactly where the bottom is, but it's just impossible to time, so I'll get in when it's "low enough." Dollar averaging, and all that mumbo jumbo.
But, yeah, I agree about the idea of things getting worse. Some shake-ups will happen after the Presidential election, but whether it's good or bad shake-ups is to be seen.
Ether_Snake
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But I mean we could fall to 6000 for all we know. Roubini says another 20% to 30% drop is likely, and I don't doubt this anymore. If this is only the half period, it's nowhere even near bottom.
We'll see how things go this week.
I'll be accumulating money on the side as a cushion for my own needed spendings and another one to be ready to invest again a few months from now if we have a clearer picture of the crisis.
EDIT: Also, with the strength of the USD right now it gives China an opportunity to sell its dollars.
We'll see how things go this week.
I'll be accumulating money on the side as a cushion for my own needed spendings and another one to be ready to invest again a few months from now if we have a clearer picture of the crisis.
EDIT: Also, with the strength of the USD right now it gives China an opportunity to sell its dollars.
Asia backing the EU plan is another nail in the coffin for American Capitalism, its funny how that is one of the big stories that just doesn't get much attention in the MSM. I've heard their are long time economic professors just devastated because they have realized they have been wrong. Our very way of doing business is changing and it seems to be under the radar. We live in amazing times.
Ether_Snake
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It has gotten press, it's on Reuter and Bloomberg's front page since yesterday.
Ether_Snake said:
Well yeah, I guess what I mean is that I wish more people would pay attention. Wish I could just walk up to some one and say, " So did you hear, American Capitalism is dead." and receive a responce in the order of, "Yeah, heard it on the news, sucks, looks like it won't be business as usual anymore".
Funny, I found out vial the Korean news channel.
RumblingRosco
Member
So with the death of American Capitalism, what will the alternative be? More government control over financial and insurance services, I guess? I'm pretty uneducated in the different forms of economical governmental controls, so I don't know what the term for something like that would be. Pseudo-Socialism?
Ether_Snake
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Well my personal opinion is that whatever comes out of this will probably be a mess as well. Too many players, too many on equal footing, too many factors. Ideally the Western nations will work together for their common unified interest.
But ultimately I always had a bad vibe about a potential future for mankind, one I would be disgusted with now but which sadly is likely to happen IMO:
1- First and foremost, an economic crisis of major proportions leads to the bankrupcy of the states. The world governments fail to act together due to self-interests and distrust. For the sake of getting the economy started again, deregulation occurs after short-lived attempts at regulation simply caused the economical crisis to lengthen. As countries face complete economical collapse, other nations see once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to seize at a time where their survival is on the line.
2- Due to the world wide crisis which led to massive unemployment, certain countries significantly ease various restrictions, even at the cost of security, to create employment and incite business to resume.
3- The above leads to global competition for practically any job, first among the countries that started to eliminate regulations and restrictions, then throughout the world as the whole world sees such action as the only immediate alternative. Visa restrictions are significantly reduced, tax codes are completely revamped across the world at the demand of select nations that kick-started the restriction-easing movement. The way people are taxed is no longer directed by nations themselves but by a global agreement, with a few exceptions.
4- People will do anything for a job, and that means competing with people from all over the world for any job as visa restrictions are lessened to accommodate for greater mobility of workforce. Chinese and Indian graduates, among others, are in such large numbers that no sector would give us Westerners an advantage in securing a job anymore.
5- This competition results in lower salaries due to the sheer number of applicants, and also due to lowered expectations from a workforce that has never had access to ownership or high salaries nor decent levels of comfort.
6- Lower salaries results in a widening gap between middle and rich class. The defining factor between one of the middle class and high class is, for the most part, ownership. The defining factor between the middle class and lower class becomes, for the most part, mobility.
7- All of the above leads to higher crime rates and heightened pollution levels, accepted as short-term side-effects of the new self-emerging system; it is a time of survival not of betterment. Terrorism and anarchy gains grounds and leads to a reform of security forces in conjunction with the economic world-wide reform that takes place; eased mobility of workforce which becomes synonymous with eased mobility of criminals brings about a more globalized law enforcement body which oversees both criminal activity and workforce mobility.
8- Warfare itself subsides as borders slowly lose their significances and as mobility of workforce and hence globalization of the economy leads to lessened incentives in declaring war lest one was to cause another economic crisis as a result. Insurgencies on the other hand are now common throughout the world, less organized but with common themes recurring throughout.
That has always been my worst case scenario.
The other scenario (no scenario is likely to be "good") would be more international agreements related to regulations. But that would be very difficult to achieve IMO.
But ultimately I always had a bad vibe about a potential future for mankind, one I would be disgusted with now but which sadly is likely to happen IMO:
1- First and foremost, an economic crisis of major proportions leads to the bankrupcy of the states. The world governments fail to act together due to self-interests and distrust. For the sake of getting the economy started again, deregulation occurs after short-lived attempts at regulation simply caused the economical crisis to lengthen. As countries face complete economical collapse, other nations see once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to seize at a time where their survival is on the line.
2- Due to the world wide crisis which led to massive unemployment, certain countries significantly ease various restrictions, even at the cost of security, to create employment and incite business to resume.
3- The above leads to global competition for practically any job, first among the countries that started to eliminate regulations and restrictions, then throughout the world as the whole world sees such action as the only immediate alternative. Visa restrictions are significantly reduced, tax codes are completely revamped across the world at the demand of select nations that kick-started the restriction-easing movement. The way people are taxed is no longer directed by nations themselves but by a global agreement, with a few exceptions.
4- People will do anything for a job, and that means competing with people from all over the world for any job as visa restrictions are lessened to accommodate for greater mobility of workforce. Chinese and Indian graduates, among others, are in such large numbers that no sector would give us Westerners an advantage in securing a job anymore.
5- This competition results in lower salaries due to the sheer number of applicants, and also due to lowered expectations from a workforce that has never had access to ownership or high salaries nor decent levels of comfort.
6- Lower salaries results in a widening gap between middle and rich class. The defining factor between one of the middle class and high class is, for the most part, ownership. The defining factor between the middle class and lower class becomes, for the most part, mobility.
7- All of the above leads to higher crime rates and heightened pollution levels, accepted as short-term side-effects of the new self-emerging system; it is a time of survival not of betterment. Terrorism and anarchy gains grounds and leads to a reform of security forces in conjunction with the economic world-wide reform that takes place; eased mobility of workforce which becomes synonymous with eased mobility of criminals brings about a more globalized law enforcement body which oversees both criminal activity and workforce mobility.
8- Warfare itself subsides as borders slowly lose their significances and as mobility of workforce and hence globalization of the economy leads to lessened incentives in declaring war lest one was to cause another economic crisis as a result. Insurgencies on the other hand are now common throughout the world, less organized but with common themes recurring throughout.
That has always been my worst case scenario.
The other scenario (no scenario is likely to be "good") would be more international agreements related to regulations. But that would be very difficult to achieve IMO.
Ether_Snake
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Hey can anyone explain if the current rise in the Yen and Dollar are again due to speculation such as the one that led to the rise in oil and gold recently?
jamesinclair
Banned
Ether_Snake said:
Rise in dollar is due to flight to safety, in the same way that a few weeks ago US treasuries were giving 0.00001% yield because everyone wanted the safest asset.
Rise in yen...no clue. But the yens always been like that, I dont think anyone understands it.
Ether_Snake
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But in a way you could say that the rise of oil prices was a run to safety too. Speculators were running away from the collapsing mortgage bubble and went straight into oil. The US dollar isn't very safe right now, and considering the rise in its value and the poor foundations of the US economy it gives more incentives for China to start to liquidate its USD rather than wait for it to fall again.
This weekend a Chinese newspaper specifically asked for a new reserve currency. That newspaper doesn't talk without the CCP talking at the same time. It was a few hours before the Sarkozy meeting.
This weekend a Chinese newspaper specifically asked for a new reserve currency. That newspaper doesn't talk without the CCP talking at the same time. It was a few hours before the Sarkozy meeting.
Yen is rising because of the unwinding of the carry trade, where you would borrow in yen and invest in higher yielding investments, usually not in yen.
Dollar is rising because of flight to safety and unwinding of not only bear dollar bets but also investments into foreign assets mostly in the emerging markets as massive deleveraging occurs.
Dollar is rising because of flight to safety and unwinding of not only bear dollar bets but also investments into foreign assets mostly in the emerging markets as massive deleveraging occurs.
Ether_Snake
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Yes that much I understood but how is the dollar any safe?
Ether_Snake said:
Safe compared to what? Safer than euro? Prob. Safer than pound? Prob. Safer than any currency besides the Yen and Yuan? Prob.
You also can't easily invest into the Yuan directly due to capital controls, so there's no liquidity in this currency, so the only thing you have left is the dollar and the yen, and we got a bigger economy/military and less debt relatively than Japan.
Ether_Snake
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So I guess the slight sight of confidence in something else would lead to a plunge in the dollar?
US better get back on its feet quick before that happens.
US better get back on its feet quick before that happens.
Asia collapsing again, and future point to a 5% drop at the open for US markets.
I'm pretty sure we are entering a full blown sovereign debt crisis that we have never ever seen before. Asian Financial Crisis redux, except this time Europe and Latin America gets to play.
housing crisis => financial crisis => sovereign crisis
Nice.
I'm pretty sure we are entering a full blown sovereign debt crisis that we have never ever seen before. Asian Financial Crisis redux, except this time Europe and Latin America gets to play.
housing crisis => financial crisis => sovereign crisis
Nice.
RumblingRosco
Member
Buyer's market, mother fuckers. Eat this shit for breakfast lunch and dinner, may never see something like it again in our lifetimes.
Nikkei has dropped from ~12,000 late September to ~7,100 as of right now, almost exactly 2 months later, for those keeping score.
Nikkei has dropped from ~12,000 late September to ~7,100 as of right now, almost exactly 2 months later, for those keeping score.
Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class (FSMKX)
YTD Performance as of 10/24/2008 -39.29%
1 Year* -22.04%
3 Year* 0.15%
5 Year* 5.08%
10 Year* 2.95%
Above from Fidelity
Below from Google Finance
Trailing total returns
YTD -39.29%
1 year -40.96%
3 year annualized -8.19%
5 year annualized -1.39%
EDIT: (Oh wait: * Performance as of 09/30/2008... what a difference a month makes!!! :lol :lol :lol )
YTD Performance as of 10/24/2008 -39.29%
1 Year* -22.04%
3 Year* 0.15%
5 Year* 5.08%
10 Year* 2.95%
Above from Fidelity
Below from Google Finance
Trailing total returns
YTD -39.29%
1 year -40.96%
3 year annualized -8.19%
5 year annualized -1.39%
EDIT: (Oh wait: * Performance as of 09/30/2008... what a difference a month makes!!! :lol :lol :lol )
Always-honest
Banned
damn, this thread makes me feel sad.....
jamesinclair
Banned
Huzah said:
Exactly.
The euro is too new, and the countries behind it arent all safe. Remember, europe is usually a quarter behind the US, which means all the shit we had here in October....europe hasnt seen the worst of it yet.
The pound was overpriced at 2/1 and everyone knew it. Its now at 1.50/1. This is less the dollar appreciating than it is the pound readjusting to a realistic rate.
Other currencies....some countries are very insulated from the crisis, and yet their currencies are going down because of ignorance of risk. That is, if youre not sure if India will be in trouble, you get out anyway.
I admit, when all this started I thought the dollar was going to tank, but I underestimated how important it is. We keep hearing how the euro is going to take over and so forth, but the dollar is still number 1 is nearly every measure.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Historical analysis:
The market remains at the 79th percentile for high P/E.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E182268CE13E&dist=SecMostRead&ref=patrick.net
The market remains at the 79th percentile for high P/E.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E182268CE13E&dist=SecMostRead&ref=patrick.net
Ether_Snake
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BEAV is up over 10% today on good earnings, DCO up 7%. Aerospace had great earnings this quarter. All are lowering estimates for the next quarter tho.
STP is dying, another 12% drop today, it's been like three or four consecutive days over double digit losses on that one, solars are tanking.
Sales of new homes were up last month.
U.S. New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise as Prices Drop
MERC earnings tonight
EDIT: I'm looking at any earnings from before markets opened this morning and it's not bad so far, lots of green
STP is dying, another 12% drop today, it's been like three or four consecutive days over double digit losses on that one, solars are tanking.
Sales of new homes were up last month.
U.S. New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise as Prices Drop
MERC earnings tonight
EDIT: I'm looking at any earnings from before markets opened this morning and it's not bad so far, lots of green
Ether_Snake
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Deku Tree said:
Yeah and times have changed, a lot, much more globalized economy where everyone's economy is related to someone else.
Ether_Snake
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ATVI at $10 is so tempting
Ether_Snake
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Because markets are dumb when it comes to video games. -7%
Ether_Snake said:
Oh well. Like you, I have a temporary restraining order against myself. Not buying - just holding. Gah.
I thought maybe they reported poor earnings or something.
BTW, NTDOY is a screaming buy today. No chance in hell that their earnings/forecasts tomorrow are as bad as currently priced-in, and the Japanese government is about to take action on the yen in some form.
It seems as if Nintendo has already gotten proactive, and are (re?)diverting shipments from Europe to North America.
Ether_Snake
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Nope I see no bad news. Ubisoft had great results last week and they didn't lower their guidance. I think maybe the game sector is getting shorted by big players who want to get in for cheap or something, who knows.
Anyway I have no money right now.
Anyway I have no money right now.
RumblingRosco
Member
Askia47 said:
Japan's debt is smaller overall, but in relation to total GDP of each country, Japan's is actually higher. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
mr stroke
Member
Quick 401k question for the Stock Age savvy-
27 years old and currently Maxing out my 401k(15k$ a year) its lost 22% this quarter and employer has now cut its matching program too. I am thinking about cutting my yearly amount way back to only 1200$ a year for the time being(maybe put the money somewhere else?). Bad move?
27 years old and currently Maxing out my 401k(15k$ a year) its lost 22% this quarter and employer has now cut its matching program too. I am thinking about cutting my yearly amount way back to only 1200$ a year for the time being(maybe put the money somewhere else?). Bad move?
mr stroke said:
IF your target is retirement this is precisely the time NOT to be cutting back, unless you think this is the apocalypse and markets will never recover, in which case you'll have bigger problems than your 401(k).
Easier said than done, I know.
What you may want to do is take a look at the fund allocations in your 401(k) to make sure you're getting some solid exposure to blue-chips than can reasonably be relied on to recover healthily (IBM, GE, DOW, J&J, etc).
Ether_Snake
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How can there be so much downward pressure on ATVI today when the markets are up? It's going in the opposite direction, on no news other than the video game industry doing very well during the recession.
Ether_Snake
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Earnings next week. Earnings should be good.
I'm choosing this week to end the risky stuff and put my account into sleep mode. I bought small amounts of AAPL, ACFN, QCOR, and WFC, and I'll diversify further tomorrow after my cash settles from today's gains. Sold completely out of my C short position at a large profit, and also out of DUG at a minimal loss as oil rallied. My F January 2010 calls are up by a third, and I will hold onto those for several months to come.
RumblingRosco
Member
Ether_Snake said:
While you're figuring that one out, find out what's wrong with COOL too. Starting to think this poor bastard is dead in the water! :lol
hey i plan on shorting a stock. I was wondering if their is a stop limit to cover my short position when i want to return the shares?
Like lets say i short XYZ at 3.00 and it drops to 2.50.
I want to put a stop limit where it will cover the shares at 2.60 so i can guarantee myself the $.40 profit but i hope it still drops below 2.50 so i want to keep the shares but i also want the stop limit to protect me and so i don't have to follow the stock every minute.
Do i just put a stop at 2.60 and a limit at 2.65? and it will cover it once the stock gets to that point?
thanks
Like lets say i short XYZ at 3.00 and it drops to 2.50.
I want to put a stop limit where it will cover the shares at 2.60 so i can guarantee myself the $.40 profit but i hope it still drops below 2.50 so i want to keep the shares but i also want the stop limit to protect me and so i don't have to follow the stock every minute.
Do i just put a stop at 2.60 and a limit at 2.65? and it will cover it once the stock gets to that point?
thanks
Ether_Snake
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Soka said:
Well in COOL's case I always said it was too volatile and that it wasn't a good idea to get rid of your ATVI shares to buy that
They'll probably be bought out eventually, but no idea at what price.Frankfurter
Member
Volkswagen gained ~150% today. Yeah, 150%. After Porsche announced that it raised its share on VW to 40% or sth. - which everybody knew they were going to do anyway...
Should have a market cap of sth. like €150bln at the moment, more than double the amount of Toyota :lol
German DAX would have ended arround at arround -9% without VW, but with it, it ended at ~+1%. Crazy world ^^
Should have a market cap of sth. like €150bln at the moment, more than double the amount of Toyota :lol
German DAX would have ended arround at arround -9% without VW, but with it, it ended at ~+1%. Crazy world ^^
Ether_Snake
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ATVI is close to pre-merger levels :lol
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Bush administration looking into getting bailout support for US automakers.
But wait a minute, didn't we give them a whole bunch of money earlier?
Hmmmm... :/