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[Deku Tree]

The bottom was reached at 7800 about a week ago. The floor is really around the 8000 level as others have said and many fund managers believe.

A lot of spectators, commentators, and fund managers said the July 15 lows were the bottom too. And we saw what happened there.

Not saying that any one of us can see the future, but if there is more bad news say with credit card defaults or further steep housing price declines then perhaps the floor could be broken.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Ultrashorts doing nicely so far. DXD, SRS and QID continuing on a tear.

 

[Relix]

The media is making this a biggest disaster. Speculators are sending the market to the ground. I sold all my stocks, but shorted on Google and so far it's been profitable :lol Gotta take any chances I can

 

[onipex]

So listening to the media the real fall of the market begins today and everything else was just a warm up. All the panic and fear going around makes it hard for me to decide what to buy first.

 

[Tarazet]

I'm still shorting C, and I'm still raking in the cash. Got a $15 put and a $12.50 put, bought both when they were well out of the money and now they're both in the money. I woke up too late to take advantage of the absolute bottom, but even when the market has gone up C has been going down. No confidence.

 

[jamesinclair]

Guy on CNBC: "The two countries with the lowest interest rates (US, JPN) have the most rapidly appreciating currencies. Have your economics professor try to explain that to you." :lol

:lol
I think I will ask.

 

[jamesinclair]

Holy shit.

GBP/USD
1.5853

Why was it still at 1.90 in my mind?

 

[Ether_Snake]

Ubisoft has announced its financial results for the second quarter, revealing that it has beaten its previously announced guidance of €160 million. Instead, Ubisoft earned sales of €175 million for the period ending September 30th. This represents a 37.3% in sales over the same quarter the previous year.

In a statement, Ubisoft cited the successful launches of SoulCalibur IV and Brothers in Arms: Hell’s Highway as primary reasons for the increased sales; while Namco Bandai published SoulCalibur IV in the US, Ubisoft published the game in Europe. Also referenced as strong earners for the company were Imagine: Teacher, My Secret World by Imagine, and Sports Party for the Wii.

Ubisoft also announced it’s earnings for the first half of it fiscal 2008-09, recording sales of €344 million. This was up 31.5% over the same 2007-08 period.

The publisher also updated its guidance, increasing the full year outlook for the company from €1,020m to €1,050m despite delays of Anno and an unannounced title into fiscal 2009-10. Ubisoft also announced Q3 guidance of €500m, with sales for the period being led by Prince of Persia, Far Cry 2, and Shaun White Snowboarding.

(edit: oops, they were released yesterday evening, so the 2% rise against low markets was good).

Anyway, I'm glad!

And oil just keeps on dropping, wow.

 

[ArtG]

Should do nicely tomorrow, the earnings were released after the close. Then again markets could drive it down. But at least it's good news for me

And oil just keeps on dropping, wow.

Don't get your hopes that this will be help the stock price over the next few days. Market will drive anything into the ground it sees fit.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Don't get your hopes that this will be help the stock price over the next few days. Market will drive anything into the ground it sees fit.

Actually the earnings were yesterday, so it led to a 2% rise today while European markets tanked. It helps to stay afloat, that's what matters to me. Bad earnings would have been... bad

EDIT: And wtf at PS3 sales in Japan, Sony is dead.

 

[ArtG]

Actually the earnings were yesterday, so it led to a 2% rise today while European markets tanked. It helps to stay afloat, that's what matters to me. Bad earnings would have been... bad

Yeah, there have been a few good earnings reports that haven't gotten taken to the woodshed.

I didn't get so lucky with PM. Beat estimates, kept guidance for the rest of the year, (there was a fear that they'd lower) still gets rocked.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't have any UBI shares, but I work there. Good earnings reassures me, and the fact I'm gonna be on an important project does so too.

EDIT: POT went from 60 to 69 today so far :lol

 

[lil smoke]

EDIT: POT went from 60 to 69 today so far :lol

:lol It's friday

Yeah I better sell my SNE. They showed some hints of fighting too, over the last week but it looks like it's over.

 

[Tarazet]

Bought some DUG. If oil is going to $50, as a lot of people seem to think, then I might as well take advantage.

 

[lil smoke]

Bought some DUG. If oil is going to $50, as a lot of people seem to think, then I might as well take advantage.

I'm watching you. You seem to have good luck.

 

[Tarazet]

I'm watching you. You seem to have good luck.

I do to some extent. I also have a C November $25 call that I paid $1.08 for. It's worth $0.02 now. Most of the time I make money because I hedge my bets.

 

[Relix]

Seems like the market has held off right now. Oil losing value even with cut is surprising, hope it keeps going down, I have no intentions on investing on oil so it can go down all it wants. Also...

USD to EUR 0.7893 €

It was .75 2 days ago. The dollar is definitely growing stronger in face of shitty market conditions. How is it doing that? I have no fucking clue. In fact, it should be on the dirt. Even with the European markets facing problems it shouldn't be THAT bad. I say the market has been holding well today for a so proclaimed "massive recession". Media is just making things worse and scaring people and investors, growing things out of proportion.

 

[onipex]

When google hits $100 I'm going all in. Who is with me?

 

[Tarazet]

When google hits $100 I'm going all in. Who is with me?

If Google hits $100, I will mortgage my grandmother's house to buy as many shares as I possibly can.

 

[lil smoke]

When google hits $100 I'm going all in. Who is with me?

Yeah I would probably pick up a few IF they got that low... GOOG aint going anywhere, they'll be around for awhile. Healthy long term position.

 

[Tarazet]

My account is up 16% on the day. (percentages that follow are life to date)

Cash $246.63
CKE $0.02 -98% $2
CKC $3.60 +78% $360
CWZ $1.88 +45% $188
DUG $55 +6% $275
FEDBX $11.38 -1% $203
TQGKU $0.25 +0 $25
UAMKB $0.40 +0 $40

 

[Tarazet]

I just realized there are $2.50 GM puts for January 2010. People are bold!

 

[xero273]

I'm guessing my daily calls for rallies will not be necessary today.

bunker in.

I'll do it then.

rally!!!

 

[Tarazet]

In line with my post above.. I just bought a $2.50 F call for January 2010, and I will buy more. The sentiment on the auto industry is so negative right now, these calls are trading at absolute bargain-basement prices. Just $0.75 currently, with the stock sitting 60 cents from the strike price and a full 14 months to go until the exercise date. It's trading like it had a tiny fraction of the time value it actually has. Unless F ends up folding for good, this is going to be a huge return on investment.

 

[gkryhewy]

My account is up 16% on the day. (percentages that follow are life to date)

Cash $246.63
CKE $0.02 -98% $2
CKC $3.60 +78% $360
CWZ $1.88 +45% $188
DUG $55 +6% $275
FEDBX $11.38 -1% $203
TQGKU $0.25 +0 $25
UAMKB $0.40 +0 $40

Wow. You are playing with a very small amount of money. Smart man.

 

[Tarazet]

Wow. You are playing with a very small amount of money. Smart man.

When the numbers are small, then you've got to make up for it by buying risky investments, otherwise you'll never get anywhere! All of the trading I do is in a Roth IRA, by the way.

 

[gkryhewy]

When the numbers are small, then you've got to make up for it by buying risky investments, otherwise you'll never get anywhere!

Small is relative. I am small potatoes with my $3000 or whatever left in the market. You could get HUGE returns and earn, what, $500 total? Unless you really enjoy it, why bother with the angst?

 

[Tarazet]

Small is relative. I am small potatoes with my $3000 or whatever left in the market. You could get HUGE returns and earn, what, $500 total? Unless you really enjoy it, why bother with the angst?

Two reasons.. first, to learn so that I know what to do with bigger sums. I've seen $500 returns in a single day in the short time I've been trading, but I just neglected to capitalize on them and threw away a lot of money. Second, because you've got to stick your neck out. You never know when a $100 investment might turn into $2000.

 

[gkryhewy]

Two reasons.. first, to learn so that I know what to do with bigger sums. I've seen $500 returns in a single day in the short time I've been trading, but I just neglected to capitalize on them and threw away a lot of money.

Those are just paper profits.

Second, because you've got to stick your neck out. You never know when a $100 investment might turn into $2000.

And that's just gambling.

Then again, I'm down over a thousand dollars on the year with my "prudent long" approach (after making that much last year). I'm wishing I'd never bothered with the markets at all.

 

[Shalashaska]

Could someone from Canada push me in the right direction for a good site to go with to start investing? I would really prefer not to be paying an account maintenance fee. I've been looking around but haven't really found anything really that great.

Some help would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Tarazet]

Those are just paper profits.

Not if you know when to sell.

And that's just gambling.

The way the market is behaving should tell you the stock market is just one big crap shoot anyway. Don't believe the fund-manager spin about holding long positions and letting your money grow with the company. The only thing that "grows" is investor confidence, unless you count the relatively paltry dividends most companies will give out. That's not where the real money is.

Then again, I'm down over a thousand dollars on the year with my "prudent long" approach (after making that much last year). I'm wishing I'd never bothered with the markets at all.

 

[Crayon Shinchan]

You guys should've invested in Obama when Xisqo was trumpetting about it back it late september.

Best investment ever.

 

[argon]

Valero (VLO) looks pretty attractive at this price, so I bought 62 shares at 16.. It's trading well below book value so I think it's relatively safe in the long run, even if it declines further.

 

[gkryhewy]

Not if you know when to sell.

If it was possible to reliably know, there would be more wealthy "traders" - most traders are just gamblers - they only talk about their wins.

The way the market is behaving should tell you the stock market is just one big crap shoot anyway. Don't believe the fund-manager spin about holding long positions and letting your money grow with the company. The only thing that "grows" is investor confidence, unless you count the relatively paltry dividends most companies will give out. That's not where the real money is.

That's not spin. It's true, if your time horizon is measured in years rather than weeks, and if you're choosing stable, established stocks. Also, you can't talk about *real money* when you are dealing with such a small sum. Finally, at current P/Es, dividends are getting attractive for some blue chips - 7%, which will outperform the market as a whole in a lot of cases.

 

[Tarazet]

If it was possible to reliably know, there would be more wealthy "traders" - most traders are just gamblers - they only talk about their wins.

That's not spin. It's true, if your time horizon is measured in years rather than weeks, and if you're choosing stable, established stocks. Also, you can't talk about *real money* when you are dealing with such a small sum. Finally, at current P/Es, dividends are getting attractive for some blue chips - 7%, which will outperform the market as a whole in a lot of cases.

Those dividends are also very likely to get cut severely as the companies try to shore up capital. Also, the definition of a "stable, established stock" can get kind of shaky in a time when 150 year old banks are failing without so much as a good-bye wave.

My horizon is measured in years, but even the biggest funds deal in volatile week to week paper with crazy yields. I'm young enough that I can lose everything, start over and still retire on time and in good shape. So why not take big risks?

 

[Xisiqomelir]

You guys should've invested in Obama when Xisqo was trumpetting about it back it late september.

Best investment ever.

Contract           Curr  	Posn  	Avg  	Last  	Tot PL  	
2008.PRES.OBAMA     USD 	+570 	52.6 	86.6 	1939.33

64.6% ROI, soon to be 90.1

 

[RumblingRosco]

Seems like the market has held off right now. Oil losing value even with cut is surprising, hope it keeps going down, I have no intentions on investing on oil so it can go down all it wants. Also...

USD to EUR 0.7893 €

It was .75 2 days ago. The dollar is definitely growing stronger in face of shitty market conditions. How is it doing that? I have no fucking clue. In fact, it should be on the dirt. Even with the European markets facing problems it shouldn't be THAT bad. I say the market has been holding well today for a so proclaimed "massive recession". Media is just making things worse and scaring people and investors, growing things out of proportion.

What else is the media good for? :lol

Also, while the $ is gaining against the €, the Japanese Yen is gaining against everything. In about a year, it went from 115 Yen to 1USD to about 94 Yen to 1USD... and a lot of that just happened in the past month or two.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

The dollar is definitely growing stronger in face of shitty market conditions. How is it doing that? I have no fucking clue. In fact, it should be on the dirt.

The hyperinflation can't set in until the fresh-printed money works its way into the hands of the public. At the moment, the world sentiment is that the Eurozone central banks will have to slash rates even harder than the Fed, so the dollar looks good (for now).

The yen is moonshotting because the yen carry trade, as has been warned about for a long time now, is finally unwinding.

 

[gkryhewy]

Those dividends are also very likely to get cut severely as the companies try to shore up capital.

Certain companies like DOW chemical have committed to their dividends, and are on good financial footing. May want to take a look - I've been close to pulling the trigger, but I'm just so reluctant to touch anything at the moment.

Also, the definition of a "stable, established stock" can get kind of shaky in a time when 150 year old banks are failing without so much as a good-bye wave.

My horizon is measured in years, but even the biggest funds deal in volatile week to week paper with crazy yields. I'm young enough that I can lose everything, start over and still retire on time and in good shape. So why not take big risks?

I agree with all of this, but if your aim is retirement, why do you even care about $500 or even $2000 short-term profits in your IRA? Buy an aggressive mix and let it simmer for 5 years, and you'll be very happy.

The hyperinflation can't set in until the fresh-printed money works its way into the hands of the public. At the moment, the world sentiment is that the Eurozone central banks will have to slash rates even harder than the Fed, so the dollar looks good (for now).

The yen is moonshotting because the yen carry trade, as has been warned about for a long time now, is finally unwinding.

Do you really expect hyperinflation in the United States? Wouldn't that generally lead to a coup of some sort? On one hand, essentially wiping out my wife's veterinary school debt would be great. On the other, we haven't bought a house yet! :lol

 

[Tarazet]

I agree with all of this, but if your aim is retirement, why do you even care about $500 or even $2000 short-term profits in your IRA? Buy an aggressive mix and let it simmer for 5 years, and you'll be very happy.

Because shorts are ruling the market right now, but short positions are lousy long-term investments. Take my position in DUG for example, which is about $250 basis. It returns double the decline in the price of oil. So if oil becomes completely worthless tomorrow and the big companies start giving it away, my position will be worth $750, but I will never have any chance to make more than that.

So I'm making money short term, and then I'll take the money and shift to long term investments. Something I'm already doing, really, with my F January 2010 calls.

 

[gkryhewy]

Because shorts are ruling the market right now, but short positions are lousy long-term investments. Take my position in DUG for example, which is about $250 basis. It returns double the decline in the price of oil. So if oil becomes completely worthless tomorrow and the big companies start giving it away, my position will be worth $750, but I will never have any chance to make more than that.

So I'm making money short term, and then I'll shift to long term investments. Something I'm already doing, really, with my F January 2010 calls.

Right, but if your position is LONG term (retirement), why even bother? Just set your money, forget it, and enjoy your newly-increased free time. Over the course of years and decades, just stick your money into some SPDRs or something. Your own personal good moves and bad moves will even out, and will probably shorten your life. Over that time horizon, however, the market as a whole will do dramatically well.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Do you really expect hyperinflation in the United States? Wouldn't that generally lead to a coup of some sort? On one hand, essentially wiping out my wife's veterinary school debt would be great. On the other, we haven't bought a house yet! :lol

Not within the next two years. If the next Chairman of the Fed mans up like Volcker did and hikes the risk-free rate like it needs to be hiked, it might even be completely averted.

 

[gkryhewy]

Not within the next two years. If the next Chairman of the Fed mans up like Volcker did and hikes the risk-free rate like it needs to be hiked, it might even be completely averted.

Really? You think they need to HIKE rates now to avoid actual hyperinflation in the United States of America? I did not take you for a true believer.

Thank you for the link on the yen carry trade - very interesting.

 

[Tarazet]

Right, but if your position is LONG term (retirement), why even bother? Just set your money, forget it, and enjoy your newly-increased free time. Over the course of years and decades, just stick your money into some SPDRs or something. Your own personal good moves and bad moves will even out, and will probably shorten your life. Over that time horizon, however, the market as a whole will do dramatically well.

Granted. It's really for fun and education.. I'm "making" just as much money by paying down my credit card, which is why I'm not putting more money into my IRA until I get that taken care of. It definitely will serve me well in the future to understand how the options markets work, though, and with Zecco's commission free trades I am having a lot of fun.

 

[gkryhewy]

Granted. It's really for fun and education.. I'm "making" just as much money by paying down my credit card, which is why I'm not putting more money into my IRA until I get that taken care of. It definitely will serve me well in the future to understand how the options markets work, though, and with Zecco's commission free trades I am having a lot of fun.

I would submit that it will not serve you well unless you intend to be a professional day trader, in which case your life will be short and unhappy :lol

However, fun is good! I am glad that you're playing with a very small amount of money, and that it's pre-tax at that.

I myself am done with this game, I believe - I'll probably hold what I own and sell it all in a few years when it gets back to break-even. Made a little, lost a little more, and it's really not for me. I have a state pension to take care of my retirement.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Really? You think they need to HIKE rates now to avoid actual hyperinflation in the United States of America? I did not take you for a true believer.

I'm pretty much Tamanon economically. I believe in a hard currency, budget surpluses, trade surpluses, encouraging savings, paying down the national debt, investment in national infrastructure and control of inflation.

Also, like I said, I don't think we're going to see wheelbarrows of Weimarbucks for bread within 2 years, we just will if there aren't remedial efforts made.

Thank you for the link on the yen carry trade - very interesting.

np

 

[Tarazet]

I would submit that it will not serve you well unless you intend to be a professional day trader, in which case your life will be short and unhappy :lol

Options have their place. I even have a couple that I plan to use. If F rises to $10 a share by January 2010, then I'd be happy to own 300 shares at $2.50 a pop thanks to my options.

I myself am done with this game, I believe - I'll probably hold what I own and sell it all in a few years when it gets back to break-even. Made a little, lost a little more, and it's really not for me. I have a state pension to take care of my retirement.

If that's what you want. I will stay active in the market, I can't stomach the idea of paying someone else to manage my money.

 

[Wellington]

I can't wait until my housing purchase is finalized, all of the money that I was saving for the house that isn't going to the mortgage will be going right into the stock market. Like Sonarrat has mentioned, shit is just too low not to buy now. F, GM, GE... the one I am most salivating about is C to be honest, the biggest bank in America won't collapse, and it will only be going up from $12 a pop.

The time for bargain hunting is now IMO, and I want to make sure I pick up as many big name companies as I can on the cheap. The ones that are part of the DJIA (for reference, go here) will never be cheaper (unless they outright collapse).

 

[Ether_Snake]

Fucking internet connection was down for hours. Argh.

Anyway, home sales were up 5.5% in Sept. Not bad, let's see if this keeps up this month.

Seems like the market has held off right now. Oil losing value even with cut is surprising, hope it keeps going down, I have no intentions on investing on oil so it can go down all it wants. Also...

USD to EUR 0.7893 €

It was .75 2 days ago. The dollar is definitely growing stronger in face of shitty market conditions. How is it doing that? I have no fucking clue. In fact, it should be on the dirt. Even with the European markets facing problems it shouldn't be THAT bad. I say the market has been holding well today for a so proclaimed "massive recession". Media is just making things worse and scaring people and investors, growing things out of proportion.

From what I understand there is a very good reason for the USD to be up: countries had bet against the dollar by changing their money reserves to other currencies, but now with Iceland and Co. tanking they are rushing back to the dollar.

Anyway I have no way to know where we are heading, so right now I'm just living a hermit, lowering my expenses, and hoping to have money at the right time to buy something when I feel I need to. No hurry tho, I can sit on what I have for a while. I'll probably add to my current positions when I have a chance.

EDIT: Oh and Wow at the oil prices.

EDIT2: BTW I'd like some input from you guys on this: Higher US dollar = higher purchasing power, lower oil prices means cheaper transportation/goods, and a slow US economy means less demand for Chinese goods and oil which in turn gives an incentive to China and Co. to bring the US back on its feet (reluctantly no doubt). Am I the only one who sees the recipe for a potential major recovery of the US economy in these conditions?

 

[Ether_Snake]

I can't wait until my housing purchase is finalized, all of the money that I was saving for the house that isn't going to the mortgage will be going right into the stock market. Like Sonarrat has mentioned, shit is just too low not to buy now. F, GM, GE... the one I am most salivating about is C to be honest, the biggest bank in America won't collapse, and it will only be going up from $12 a pop.

The time for bargain hunting is now IMO, and I want to make sure I pick up as many big name companies as I can on the cheap. The ones that are part of the DJIA (for reference, go here) will never be cheaper (unless they outright collapse).

You could always buy into an ETF like DDM or DVY. That's probably what I'm doing next.