Frustrated_Grunt
Member
Marco Rubio
I'm dying if this is real. I need more context.
The New Hampshire Primary |Feb 9|: Live Free or Die
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I'm dying if this is real. I need more context.
gutter_trash
Banned
garbage, since Cruz is going to be at the bottom of the pile in NH, not on top
I don't see Christie staying in the race if he doesn't crack the top four or five. To pour all your resources into one state and then come out of with a sixth place finish? There's no momentum from that.
Agreed about Jeb though, he'll hold on to at least South Carolina. He's building up a big ground game there, plus has Graham's endorsement.
Think it's a Jeb Bush attack video making fun of the whole Rubio wearing fancy boots situation.
Melkezadek
Member
Actually the greatest thing to come out of the Jeb campaign. Even funnier if you imagine those are Bush's legs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC6H-8hktFE
I am dying. What the absolute christ did I just watch?
Orbis Tabula
Member
I'm hoping that Rubio's debate fuck up didn't lower expectations so much that a mediocre performance gets reported as a win. I can see the headlines now. "Despite debate, Rubio exceed expectations in NH, Trump first"
My dream order for this primary is
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Jeb
Rubio
It would leave the party with no clear pick to destroy Trump, letting him continue to steamroll elsewhere. His lead needs to stay in Winner-Take-All South Carolina. Then the "Trump wins big in SC" headline can keep the narrative going.
My dream order for this primary is
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Jeb
Rubio
It would leave the party with no clear pick to destroy Trump, letting him continue to steamroll elsewhere. His lead needs to stay in Winner-Take-All South Carolina. Then the "Trump wins big in SC" headline can keep the narrative going.
Frustrated_Grunt
Member
Veritigo_X
Member
They came out for him in Iowa without him having an actual ground game. I think they'll come out in NH. The primary process will benefit him more than the caucus.
maquiladora
Member
Orbis Tabula
Member
I expect you're right, reports are his ground game is somewhere between shit and nonexistent. However, I think his lead in New Hampshire is big enough that it will insulate him against a loss.
I agree, but that's why I expect him to win NH with around an 8%-10% margin of victory instead of the large double-digit lead the polls give him
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Yeah thats the thing about Iowa. Trump put in zero effort and got 2nd. Cruz fired off everything he had, dirty tricks and all, and he only won by a couple points. It should have been double digits. Cruz could not have been happy with the Iowa results.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Christie probably drops out if he completely bombs like that. He hasn't been polling great, but I suspect he outperforms his polling enough to stay in.
They came out, but not in the numbers his polling would have indicated. I doubt Trump gets as low as 8%, but he could easily be somewhere around 20% in New Hampshire.
Oh my god.
Veritigo_X
Member
Caucus polling is historically hard to predict. 2012 had Santorum literally come out of nowhere (ew). NH polling has generally been more in line with the final results.
The Lamonster
Member
Rooting for Clinton and Cruz since I think they have the best and worst chance at winning the general election, respectively. Go dems.
What is this? Can't watch videos at work.
A caucus works differently--you need to be at the site at 7 pm or your vote will not count, and even with high turnout you still just usually get less than 20% of registered voters participating.
You can vote all day in a primary, and New Hampshire traditionally has high participation rates.
maquiladora
Member
Trump repeating what one of his supporters shouted at a rally, calling Cruz a "pussy".
Trump will win in NH, but his ground game isn't any different there -- nor will it be any different anywhere else, since he isn't interested in changing things up.
NH is usually even harder to poll accurately.
Cornbread78
Member
I did my civic duty this morning on the way to the office. The bad part is that I live in the largest (or second largest) city and my district voting district was empty. I mean, it literally took me about 5 mins total to run into the school, vote and leave. I hope that small snowstorm yesterday doesn't keep people away from the polls...
There is no party registration in NH. You could have a slate of moderates you expect to vote for Clinton go vote for Kasich instead.
Probably part of the reason that Clinton won NH in '08 was a swath of Obama supporters went to throw support behind McCain, even though these same people voted for Obama in the general.
NH is a boondoggle. The only thing we really know is Sanders will win.
We also had a dusting here in NYC, so I imagine NH got hit with a decent amount of snow last night. So, we'll see what that does to Trump and Sanders support. Since traditional non-voters and young voters are generally the most likely to no-show after intending to votes.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
I'm pretty sure the latter isn't true. New Hampshire polling has historically been all over the place, sometimes with things changing at the very last second that polls just don't pick up.
Yeah, but Jeb can't wear a hoodie. What makes you think he can dance?
Then again, that isn't a "dance" per se.
I am talking about whether his supporters will not show up. He certainly underperformed due to the caucus format and lack of a get out the caucus system.
There is party registration in NH, but 40% are undeclared. I think Hillary voters will vote for Hillary since her ground game has been trying to narrow the gap and they've been pushing the vote hard. I don't think Kasich would capture all of these defectors--as we see in this thread, Trump is capturing a lot of Democratic votes because they think he will be easy to beat in the general:
Veritigo_X
Member
I agree here. I just think it matters less in an actual primary opposed to a caucus with strict voting rules.
Eh, they've been a little off but I think that's just noise from independents deciding on random candidates at the last minute like they always do.
2012 poll aggregate on final day: Romney 39.6%, Paul 18.8%, Huntsman 11.9%, Santorum 11.0%
2012 results: Romney 39.28%, Paul 22.89%, Huntsman 16.89%, Santorum 9.43%
2008 poll aggregate: McCain 34.2%, Romney 27.5%, Huckabee 12.0%, Giuliani 8.3%
2008 results: McCain 37.01%, Romney 31.57%, Huckabee 11.22%, Giuliani 8.54%
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Trump, Kasich, Bush, Cruz, Rubio in that order.
My hope and hell, my somewhat optimistic prediction as well.
Let's make it happen, Cap'n!
My hope and hell, my somewhat optimistic prediction as well.
Let's make it happen, Cap'n!
balladofwindfishes
Member
So is Kasich going to be this week's flavor of the week until he messes up and gets bumped back down, like Rubio?
How did Kasich go from being that random guy nobody had heard of at the debate, to being potentially second in a primary?
How did Kasich go from being that random guy nobody had heard of at the debate, to being potentially second in a primary?
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Kasich has always been much more well suited to New Hamshire's demographic of Republicans than anyone else save for Christie.
Tesseract
Banned
Cornbread78
Member
It really wasn't a lot of snow (3-6") and it was done snowing late last night, so there is no excuses at all! It was kind of sad to see nobody at the polls at 7:30am...
Squirrel Killer
Member
Polling showed Santorum spreading his frothy support in mid-December.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The GOP seems to have wanted him to be, but he blew it. He lacks the charisma that Obama has. Obama just oozed leadership. You knew right away, "this man will be president" when Obama spoke. No candidate on either side matches that feeling that Obama gave people, which I find disappointing.
My shot in the dark for top three is:
-Trump
-Kasich
-Cruz
I can't see Cruz in second after the Carson fiasco, but it seems like he hasn't dropped that much. I think moderates/establishment from Rubio will flock to Kasich and can't see Rubio win over him or even Bush. Wouldn't surprise me if Christie finishes ahead of Rubio.
-Trump
-Kasich
-Cruz
I can't see Cruz in second after the Carson fiasco, but it seems like he hasn't dropped that much. I think moderates/establishment from Rubio will flock to Kasich and can't see Rubio win over him or even Bush. Wouldn't surprise me if Christie finishes ahead of Rubio.
Not even close. I was worried because he definitely has "the look" but when he opens his mouth..... My God!
Black Republican
Member
"Give my best to Carly," says @HillaryClinton greeting CarlyFiorina supporters at NH polling place.
savage
savage
Veritigo_X
Member
"Hillary Clinton sends her regards." -NH voters as they slide the dagger into Fiorina's campaign
Whose campaign is Roose Bolton?
cpp_is_king
Member
Looking for Trump to hand down a devastating blowout tonight. I think Christie and Fiorina will dropout and both endorse Trump after tonight.
Im hoping Rubio gets beaten by Trump by at least 3x so i can see the look on GOPe's face when reality sets in that its Trump or bust.
That reaction from Jeb when he has to come out and say "Trump is better than Clinton, please vote for Trump" is going to be meme worthy.
Im hoping Rubio gets beaten by Trump by at least 3x so i can see the look on GOPe's face when reality sets in that its Trump or bust.
That reaction from Jeb when he has to come out and say "Trump is better than Clinton, please vote for Trump" is going to be meme worthy.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I'd be a little surprised if they drop out. Well, Fiorina maybe, but I think Christie is in until he's out of money. Hell, most of these candidates will be, I think.
Pamplemousse
Member
What?! Fiorina would never endorse Trump. He insulted her looks. She hates him.
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