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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Shiggy

Member
Tomorrow, Deloitte will present a study on what German companies think of the Brexit:

Deloitte survey: German companies (250 big companies with trade ties to the UK)
- 49% of companies want to exclude the UK from the common market if the country does not accept the 4 freedoms.
- 26% want the UK to have access to the common market if only freedom of movement is given up.
- 24% see a trade deal like CETA the way to go.

- 39% believe that there will be a transition deal after the next 2 years.
- 29% believe that the negotiations will be extended after 2 years.

Expectations on results
- 20% believe that there will be no deal.
- 23% believe there will be very few trade barriers after the Brexit
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/un...he-firmen-lehnen-sonderdeal-ab-a-1147042.html
 
This always gets me when it comes up. What Boris and co really failed to consider would be the possibility that European businesses would think of themselves as European citizens first.

I don't think you even need to "think of themselves as European citizens first", just very selfishly realize that this "thing" they depend on, the EU, is a bit wobbly at the moment, and for a member to leave and get as good a deal as the remaining members is a surefire way for the wobble to turn into the thing breaking all together.

The problem is that Europeans agree with Brexiters on at least one thing, Britain leaving could very well lead to other countries doing the same, and that's an "existential" risk.
 
I don't think you even need to "think of themselves as European citizens first", just very selfishly realize that this "thing" they depend on, the EU, is a bit wobbly at the moment, and for a member to leave and get as good a deal as the remaining members is a surefire way for the wobble to turn into the thing breaking all together.

The problem is that Europeans agree with Brexiters on at least one thing, Britain leaving could very well lead to other countries doing the same, and that's an "existential" risk.

It's at this point British propaganda.
 

Number45

Member
How is this political suicide, given they already hgave only 8 MPs and they are trying to make a play for 48% of the population?

No-one thinks they are going to win, but the lib-dems have to do something to differentiate themselves from the other parties and this seems like the best way forward.
Agreed. It's massively appealing both for people who want to remain, or are worried about the impact of leaving (and that second group could contain both leave and remain voters). It'll almost certainly sway me to LD, although I'll be looking at both manifesto's over the next few days. My daughters are going to be heavily impacted by the next 10 years or so both in education/higher education and employment/housing so that will be a key factor too.
 

Zaph

Member
Yeah, it'll never happen, but that strategy means the Lib Dems have my vote (even though the Tories are much better for me). In 20 years time I want to be able to tell my children I never once supported a Brexit party.
 
Agreed. It's massively appealing both for people who want to remain, or are worried about the impact of leaving (and that second group could contain both leave and remain voters). It'll almost certainly sway me to LD, although I'll be looking at both manifesto's over the next few days. My daughters are going to be heavily impacted by the next 10 years or so both in education/higher education and employment/housing so that will be a key factor too.

I am really torn on voting Lib Dem this year. On the one hand, I support their general policies and stance most, and well, they'll hardly ever win in my area if they aren't shown some support to suggest they're worth investing in. On the other hand, they almost certainly cannot win in my area - they came third behind the Tories and Labour in 2010, and fourth behind UKIP in 2015. The only practical hope to not yet again end up with a Conservative MP is voting Labour, which is important as the town council is run by Labour, and the Tory MPs have made it a point to just lambaste them in the eventual hope they might get control of said council.

So yeah, kinda sucks.
 

Number45

Member
My situation is similar - unless the UKIP vote moves overwhelmingly to Labour (and they get votes from elsewhere) we're going to be comfortably Conservative. I can vote with my decision from the manifesto's without worrying about "wasting" my vote.
 

Xando

Member
Merkel on Brexit and possible immigration cap some in UK argue for:

Original in german :
Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) hat die britische Regierung erneut vor der Aufgabe der Personenfreizügigkeit im Zuge des EU-Austritts gewarnt.

„Wenn die britische Regierung sagt, die Freizügigkeit der Menschen gilt nicht mehr, wird das seinen Preis haben”, sagte die Regierungschefin am Mittwoch in Berlin.

Dann müsse auch die EU über Erschwernisse für die Briten nachdenken. Man könne nicht die guten Seiten der EU bewahren, ohne diese Freizügigkeit zu gewähren.

Merkel: „Das ist keine Boshaftigkeit, aber...”

„Das ist keine Boshaftigkeit”, so die Bundeskanzlerin. „Aber ich kann nicht alle guten Aspekte erwarten und dann sagen: ‚Wir machen ein Limit für 100.000 bis 200.000 EU-Bürger‘. Das wird nicht funktionieren.”

Die EU werde alles tun, um freundschaftliche Beziehungen zu Großbritannien zu haben. Ansonsten liege es wesentlich an Großbritannien, wie sich die Beziehungen gestalteten.

Quick translate:

Chancellor Merkel again warned the UK about giving up Freedom of Movement. "If the British goverment says there will be no Freedom of Movement, there will be a price to pay." she said on wednesday in Berlin.
If that were the case the EU would have to think about consequences for british movement within the EU
"This is not us being spiteful but you can't expect to have the good aspects of the EU and say there is going to be a limit for 100.000-200.00 EU citizens. That's not gonna work."
The EU would do everything for friendly relationships with the UK but it's on the UK to define how it sees a future relationship.
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland...d-seinen-Preis-haben-Merkel-droht-Briten.html
 

Xando

Member
I don't think anyone in the uk expected that an end to free movement of people wouldn't be reciprocal.
Crazy to think otherwise.

I agree but the article doesn't necessarily makes it 100% clear if she talks only about FoM or a general UK migration cap for 100-200k EU citizens like some tories want.

It could be interpreted either way in german. Seems she suggests EU could also cap Brits coming to the EU in return.
 
I agree but the article doesn't necessarily makes it 100% clear if she talks only about FoM or a general UK migration cap for 100-200k EU citizens like some torys want.

It could be interpreted either way in german. Seems she suggests EU could also cap Brits coming to the EU in return.
I would imagine that immigration from the UK>EU would be subject to the same rules as other third party countries and vice versa.
I also cannot see a scenario where current residents will not remain in their respective countries.
 

Xando

Member
Reuters with the scoop:

Exclusive: EU looks to build alternative to London for capital market - document

Brexit has forced the European Union to rethink its flagship capital markets union (CMU) project and urgently look for ways to create an alternative financial market to London, according to a draft EU document seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

London is the bloc's biggest financial market by far, but will be outside the EU from 2019, posing a challenge to the CMU project that had already begun to flag before last year's referendum in Britain.

"The CMU reform programme must be updated so that it can meet the challenge of creating a more autonomous capital market for the EU-27 economy," the document written by the European Commission says, referring to the remaining EU member states.

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May has said she wants a free trade agreement with the EU that would include financial services, but the document suggests the bloc wants instead to replicate London's financial industry as much as it can.

The draft document, due to be discussed by the executive Commission on June 7 ahead of potential publication, said Brexit made it necessary to ensure that businesses remaining in the EU would have access to strong capital markets.

"This calls for stronger actions, more effective supervision and making sure that the benefits of the CMU are felt across the entire EU," it said.

"The City of London has traditionally pooled liquidity and provided risk management services for the rest of the EU. The departure of the UK from the single market reinforces the need and urgency of further developing and integrating EU capital markets."

A "deep re-engineering" of the financial system is necessary and this "implies finding ways to integrate sustainability into the EU's regulatory and financial policy framework", and to broaden the "geographical reach of capital markets".

Separately, the EU executive has already announced it will publish a draft law next month to tighten its grip on the clearing of euro-denominated securities, an activity which London currently dominates.

The draft document sets out a string of proposals to boost the bloc's capital market, especially in areas which London has dominated such as institutional investment, pensions, and stock market listings.

The Commission will propose in the third quarter to strengthen the powers of the EU's European Securities and Markets Authority - a step Britain had long opposed - in order to make the CMU more effective, the document added.

There may be an "EU Small Listed Companies Act" in the second quarter of next year to make the bloc a more attractive location for companies to go public, it said.

The Commission will propose a draft law to ease capital requirements on investment firms in the fourth quarter of 2017, and assess the case for granting licences and "passporting" rights to financial technology firms to operate across the EU, the document said.
The EU executive will also present measures to "support secondary markets" for non-performing or soured loans on the books of banks, blamed for holding them back from lending more to companies.

There may be a draft law too on making it easier to sell mutual and hedge funds products across borders.

The draft document follows a "mid-term" review of the CMU, a project that aims to encourage companies to raise more funds on markets and reduce the continent's heavy reliance on bank loans.

The document, which could be amended before publication, says a draft law to propose a pan-European personal pension product will be published by the end of June.

There will also be a draft law proposing an EU framework for covered bonds in the first quarter of next year.
 

sammex

Member
Real wages fall - but not for the post-truth prime minister

Brexit is making us all poorer. But that cannot be said, because we have entered a post-truth era defined by religious zeal and intense intellectual defensiveness. Brexit is good. Therefore anything bad which has happened cannot, by definition, have been a result of Brexit. The goodness of Brexit is the only constant in an ever-changing world, so all other facts must be turned on their head to accommodate this new reality.

...

May had admitted to a worried father of five yesterday that Brexit was partially to blame for rising prices, Sky News told her. What will she do to help now?

Her answer was remarkable. "I didn't actually say Brexit was responsible for the troubles that he had," she replied. "I did say that we had of course seen an impact on inflation from changes to the currency in the last few months."

'The changes in currency'. It's as if these things happened without being caused, like some sort of spiritual phenomenon.

Hammond followed this strange line of argument. "We have some inflation passing through the economy," he said, as if he were grumbling to the wife after a particularly heavy meal. "This will be transient. It's the result of currency movements last year."

'Currency movements'. Again, a causeless shuffling of sterling for no reason at all.

The question was then raised again. Does May really not accept that the 17% drop in sterling was due to Brexit?

At this point she started to shift from being disingenuous to being outright misleading. "If you look at what had happened to sterling," she said, "it had started to slide before the referendum result came through."

...

This is reality. It is not a matter of opinion, or a spiritual phenomenon taking place independently of causation, or a weird economic fart bubbling up from the currency markets. Brexit triggered a fall in the value of the pound for the simple reason that people across the world had lower expectations of what the UK's future would entail as a result of it. If you're reading this from the UK, the chances are that you're poorer because of it. You can afford less stuff. It really is no more complicated than that
 

Joni

Member
The UK is stopping the EU building a military command center. Another reminder why this could be good.

And everyone's favorite brexit minister wants to walk from the table if the brexit bill is 100 billion. So I say, call the bluff.
 

Maledict

Member
To be fair, I'm hugely pro-EU and not at all convinced by the idea of a joint eu military force. We simply aren't combined enough at the political level to make it work. It will duplicate a lot of what NATO does without bringing anything extra to the table, which will actually decrease our already limited military capability.
 

Joni

Member
To be fair, I'm hugely pro-EU and not at all convinced by the idea of a joint eu military force. We simply aren't combined enough at the political level to make it work. It will duplicate a lot of what NATO does without bringing anything extra to the table, which will actually decrease our already limited military capability.

The EU (minus Britain) has the second biggest military in the world. it could be hugely beneficial to bring this together and actually align on what we want to do.
 

Kyougar

Member
To be fair, I'm hugely pro-EU and not at all convinced by the idea of a joint eu military force. We simply aren't combined enough at the political level to make it work. It will duplicate a lot of what NATO does without bringing anything extra to the table, which will actually decrease our already limited military capability.


The military isnt as political. Even enemies on battlefield have respect for another if you dont massacre civilians. A joint military would bond the memberstates more.
 

Maledict

Member
I don't think people get my point. EU decision making is slow and cumbersome at best due to the need ideas agreement. An EU military force would be basically useless - there's no way member states could agree on deployment *ever*. Just look at past military conflicts for why. The only way around that is to create something like NATO, in which case - you have NATO, which is much stronger already.

Ultimately creating an EU military force is a political thing - it might create stronger EU bonds, but it's certainly not what you do to create a better military defense force in the current political stucture. The EU needs a lot more integration at the political level before it should think about creating a combined military force.
 

Xando

Member
I don't think people get my point. EU decision making is slow and cumbersome at best due to the need ideas agreement. An EU military force would be basically useless - there's no way member states could agree on deployment *ever*. Just look at past military conflicts for why. The only way around that is to create something like NATO, in which case - you have NATO, which is much stronger already.

Ultimately creating an EU military force is a political thing - it might create stronger EU bonds, but it's certainly not what you do to create a better military defense force in the current political stucture. The EU needs a lot more integration at the political level before it should think about creating a combined military force.

I see what you're getting at but i think if there ever was a EU army it wouldn't be all countries involved.

Imo any creation of a EU army would start with France and Germany basically merging (Maybe add the Benelux, Spain and Italy to it) and slowly start to integrate other countries once that force stands. No offense to countries like Poland or Hungary but i don't think they would be open to intervene in conflicts on our borders and only really care about the Russia problem.

Even coordination in parts like research or stockpiles would already go a long way to get more efficient armies for less money.

The myth of the slow EU...

I wouldn't say the EU is slow but they have a tendency to act only when they're forced to with bigger decisions.
 

Joni

Member
It could bring about an end to NATO.

Which is currently dead-weight thanks to Trump threaths and Turkey.

Even coordination in parts like research or stockpiles would already go a long way to get more efficient armies for less money.

Indeed.

The only way around that is to create something like NATO, in which case - you have NATO, which is much stronger already.

The NATO has done very little when it comes to military interventions. It intervened in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan on its own. It also did some enforcement in Libya and counter-piracy in Somalia, both under United Nations resolutions. This doesn't seem the force for fast interventions and clear decision making. It existed more than 40 years before taking any actual military action.
 

Theonik

Member
I don't think people get my point. EU decision making is slow and cumbersome at best due to the need ideas agreement. An EU military force would be basically useless - there's no way member states could agree on deployment *ever*. Just look at past military conflicts for why. The only way around that is to create something like NATO, in which case - you have NATO, which is much stronger already.

Ultimately creating an EU military force is a political thing - it might create stronger EU bonds, but it's certainly not what you do to create a better military defense force in the current political stucture. The EU needs a lot more integration at the political level before it should think about creating a combined military force.
Creating an EU army without the underlying structures to control it would be a mistake but I don't think is the goal here. The actual EU portion of administrations is pretty fast, it is the national parliaments that are slow. So in the end, an EU army would have to be sufficiently empowered to act which is also the big political hurdle I think.
 

Blue Lou

Member
Important events occuring today, apparently.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/gac/2017/05/22/

Agenda highlights

The Council, meeting in an EU27 format, will adopt:

a decision authorising the opening of Brexit negotiations with the UK and nominating the Commission as the EU negotiator
negotiating directives for the Brexit negotiations
Both texts will be based on a recommendation presented by the Commission on 3 May 2017 and will build on the guidelines adopted by the European Council (Art.50) on 29 April 2017. Their adoption will allow the beginning of negotiations with the UK following the notification of its intention to withdraw from the EU (under Article 50 of the Treaty of the EU).

Recommendation for a Council decision authorising the Commission to open negotiations with the UK
European Council (Art. 50) guidelines for Brexit negotiations, 29/04/2017
The set of negotiating directives to be adopted by ministers on 22 May 2017 is intended for the first phase of the negotiations. These directives are therefore expected to prioritise some matters which at this stage have been identified as necessary for an orderly withdrawal of the UK. They will cover among others:

citizens' rights
the financial settlement
the situation of Ireland
The negotiating directives may be amended and supplemented as necessary during the negotiations, in particular to reflect the European Council guidelines as they evolve.

Finally, the Council will adopt a decision to establish an ad hoc working party that will assist the Council and Coreper in all matters relating to the UK's withdrawal from the Union.

Press conference at 12 noon BST (12 CET) - http://video.consilium.europa.eu/en/webcast/b07f275a-b73d-4db9-8eea-77ad132209f9
 

Xando

Member
BREAKING: #EU27 just adopted at unanimity decision authorising #Art.50 negotiations. Strong & clear mandate for @MichelBarnier #Brexit
https://twitter.com/WeyandSabine/status/866607189762482176

I look forward to the first interviews of David Davis after the first negotiation day


Also remember how the EU only has closed door negotiations?

#Brexit Given the unprecedented nature of #Article50 negotiations, the EU will ensure a max. level of #transparency
https://twitter.com/EUlondonrep/status/866618813986504704
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/art...ncy-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en
 

8bit

Knows the Score
The FT said:
On Brexit day, Britain will immediately be excluded from hundreds of treaties and agreements signed by the EU.

Many of the 759 arrangements listed below — from customs procedures and agricultural quotas, to the landing rights of planes — must be replaced, renegotiated or remade by Brexit Britain.

The negotiation will span 168 countries and is one of the biggest administrative challenges confronting Whitehall as Britain exits the EU. This list covers what Britain needs to stand still as it resets its relations with the world.


https://ig.ft.com/brexit-treaty-database/
 

Kyougar

Member
The newest polls have the tories with seat losses and no majority.

Would the Libdems go into a coalition with the tories? Would there be a grand coalition between tories and labour?

A hung parliament can only be desastrous for the article 50 timeline
 

Faddy

Banned
I hate twitter threads, but this is an excellent summary (with some sources) of the evolving narratives around "hard brexit".

https://twitter.com/tony_nog/status/870252723429683204

This is so accurate. Hard Brexit was never discussed during the campaign. Only Farage proposed what Theresa May wants to do.

The reality is that Leave won by such a small margin and a large portion of that group thought they were going to get a continuing relationship like Norway or Switzerland. Now it seems everyone is too stubborn to admit they were tricked so we are bulldozing on with a UKIP Brexit.
 

chadskin

Member
The Guardian providing a good laugh today

9EPoKYa.png
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
As an American who hasn't been keeping up-to-date with Brexit progress, after scanning the last page...it doesn't sound like things are going too well. Any important details I might have missed?

There's too much shit going on here for me to worry about ya'll.
 

Faddy

Banned
As an American who hasn't been keeping up-to-date with Brexit progress, after scanning the last page...it doesn't sound like things are going too well. Any important details I might have missed?

There's too much shit going on here for me to worry about ya'll.

Well we were going to be "Geting on With It" and "Making the Best of It" but then Theresa May decided we could stop for a bit and have an election to make it strongerer and stabler.

The EU published a whole bunch of stuff on Monday about the negotiations but no one in Britain has noticed since we are too busy with the election
 

Bleepey

Member
As an American who hasn't been keeping up-to-date with Brexit progress, after scanning the last page...it doesn't sound like things are going too well. Any important details I might have missed?

There's too much shit going on here for me to worry about ya'll.

We're shitting the bed. Theresa thinks she's Little Finger and more a Circe. By that I mean according to the polls she's in line to shit the bed. Cameron might be impressed how she shit the bed. Her manifesto contains few figures and with talk of the dementia tax, she went full Tory. You never go full Tory.
 
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