Trump on Twitter Attacking Republican Leadership

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Reap what you sow.

They've courted the bigot vote for years, appealed directly to the ones that hate the establishment, the mainstream, the media, the facts, the ones who love to play the victim and revel in conspiracy theories where everyone is out to get them. The ones that love to hate everything that isn't them.

Well now the situation has come where the GOP itself is now the mainstream establishment to these people they courted and their voter base is being split in two. Moderates won't vote for Trump, extremists won't vote downticket, killing the election chances of both. It may very well be the end of them as a major party if this divide continues til November.
 
Ithil said:
Reap what you sow.

They've courted the bigot vote for years, appealed directly to the ones that hate the establishment, the mainstream, the media, the facts, the ones who love to play the victim and revel in conspiracy theories where everyone is out to get them. The ones that love to hate everything that isn't them.

Well now the situation has come where the GOP itself is now the mainstream establishment to these people they courted and their voter base is being split in two. Moderates won't vote for Trump, extremists won't vote downticket, killing the election chances of both. It may very well be the end of them as a major party if this divide continues til November.
Click to expand...

Your av could easily describe Reince's manic efforts to get off the out of control Trump-train. Perfection.
 
Watch Da Birdie said:
It's still kind of weird that the leaked audio was the tipping point for so many supporters, I mean it was gross but pretty much fit how Trump's held himself during this entire election cycle so it wasn't really a big surprise he would say something like that.

I guess I'm trying to say that with all the politically dangerous and inane things he said it's weird that an issue that most Republicans never really seem to care about (women) is what set them off. I gotta kind of agree with Trump here that the Republicans suddenly jumping ship after actively working against women's reproductive rights and making it harder and harder to take rape as an issue seriously in this country are being hypocritical at railing against him for this, without excusing Trump.
Click to expand...

I honestly don't think it was the tipping point for any of the elites you're seeing. You're not seeing Christie, Gingrich, Giuliani, and Carson unendorse him. You're seeing a bunch of mainstream Republicans many of whom reluctantly endorsed him to begin with because he was their party's nominee. I think what you have here is a timeline that looks pretty clear; Hillary has pretty consistently been 4-5 points up from Trump and Trump has consistently had a ceiling at 40-41% of the vote. After Hillary's bad month, the race was looking more competitive. Republicans would rather win than lose, so you have situations like Ted Cruz reluctantly endorsing Trump while looking constipated. Now, another few weeks have passed, the first debate was a spanking, and Trump spent the week after being a baby about Miss Universe (Hillary rope-a-doped him so transparently on that, it's hard to believe he fell for it--she read the prompt off a cue-card word for word, it was one of the most obvious situations imaginable). So if you're a Republican, you're thinking "shit, we're losing the presidency" and you're thinking about how to mitigate the downticket damage, particularly marginal senate races.

Now, in that context, this tape comes out. This gives you an out to make it look like your defection is principled rather than strategic. If you're John McCain, you no longer have a primary to worry about, you're going to almost certainly win this November, and now you get to unendorse this guy who climbed to the top by stabbing you in the back. Sounds good to me. Who else is bailing? Paul Ryan (reluctantly endorsed him), Reince Preibus (reluctantly endorsed him), and a bunch of nobody senators and reps mostly people who were barely on board to begin with.

Pence is probably the closest thing to an honest defection, and he's the guy who comes out smelling like absolute roses from all this. Before being recruited to the ticket, Pence was likely going to lose the Indiana gubernatorial race. Inviting him to the ticket means he doesn't have to, sparing him an embarrassing loss. As a Trump surrogate he's struck a good balance of not defending Trump's worst atrocities and trying to integrate Trump into the party, and he's absolutely not to blame for Trump's performance since clearly Trump is a loose cannon. Note that I am a non-citizen resident of the US, left of the Democratic party politically, so this isn't me saying I love Mike Pence, but rather that I think he's generally conducted himself with dignity and impressed people within his party. Going into 2020 it's hard to believe Pence wouldn't be a consideration for the presidential nomination.

The real unanswered question for me now is how the party prevents this from happening again, since whether Trump or someone else the populists have the smell of blood on their noses. I would assume a good first pass would be to disqualify candidates who haven't been party members for <x> years, where x is whatever number discourages Trump and people like him. Not sure how you prevent an actual Republican from running a fringe "free media, cover my lunacy" angle though.

Titanoboa said:
Why is Pence staying on now that there's open war? Does he honestly think Don can pull this one out?
Click to expand...

I think he correctly thinks that he won't be blamed for the loss, and that he's already put enough daylight between Trump and himself to avoid the taint for his future career. He doesn't want to be an Eagleton or alienate the well more than half of his party that still supports Trump.
 
Watch Da Birdie said:
It's still kind of weird that the leaked audio was the tipping point for so many supporters, I mean it was gross but pretty much fit how Trump's held himself during this entire election cycle so it wasn't really a big surprise he would say something like that.

I guess I'm trying to say that with all the politically dangerous and inane things he said it's weird that an issue that most Republicans never really seem to care about (women) is what set them off. I gotta kind of agree with Trump here that the Republicans suddenly jumping ship after actively working against women's reproductive rights and making it harder and harder to take rape as an issue seriously in this country are being hypocritical at railing against him for this, without excusing Trump.
Click to expand...

Trump was already losing. He was slipping further and further behind, after bombing the first debate and having scandal after scandal appear, with no real possibility of turning it around. It was increasingly obvious he was on path to lose, and lose badly.

The tape that came out was indefensible. There was no context to put it in to make it better, no way to avoid the damage it was going to do. So it represents an ideal excuse for jumping off a sinking ship. For many of the people who unendorsed, it's not about the tape's contents being reprehensible, it's about severing their ties to a dying campaign, the tape is simply a great reason to do so and save face. Those people endorsed him in the first place because they had to toe the party line. Now that it's clear he's going to lose, who cares about that, they have to try and save their own downticket races, and his campaign is toxic.
 
Stumpokapow said:
I honestly don't think it was the tipping point for any of the elites you're seeing. You're not seeing Christie, Gingrich, Giuliani, and Carson unendorse him. You're seeing a bunch of mainstream Republicans many of whom reluctantly endorsed him to begin with because he was their party's nominee. I think what you have here is a timeline that looks pretty clear; Hillary has pretty consistently been 4-5 points up from Trump and Trump has consistently had a ceiling at 40-41% of the vote. After Hillary's bad month, the race was looking more competitive. Republicans would rather win than lose, so you have situations like Ted Cruz reluctantly endorsing Trump while looking constipated. Now, another few weeks have passed, the first debate was a spanking, and Trump spent the week after being a baby about Miss Universe (Hillary rope-a-doped him so transparently on that, it's hard to believe he fell for it--she read the prompt off a cue-card word for word, it was one of the most obvious situations imaginable). So if you're a Republican, you're thinking "shit, we're losing the presidency" and you're thinking about how to mitigate the downticket damage, particularly marginal senate races.

Now, in that context, this tape comes out. This gives you an out to make it look like your defection is principled rather than strategic. If you're John McCain, you no longer have a primary to worry about, you're going to almost certainly win this November, and now you get to unendorse this guy who climbed to the top by stabbing you in the back. Sounds good to me. Who else is bailing? Paul Ryan (reluctantly endorsed him), Reince Preibus (reluctantly endorsed him), and a bunch of nobody senators and reps mostly people who were barely on board to begin with.

Pence is probably the closest thing to an honest defection, and he's the guy who comes out smelling like absolute roses from all this. Before being recruited to the ticket, Pence was likely going to lose the Indiana gubernatorial race. Inviting him to the ticket means he doesn't have to, sparing him an embarrassing loss. As a Trump surrogate he's struck a good balance of not defending Trump's worst atrocities and trying to integrate Trump into the party, and he's absolutely not to blame for Trump's performance since clearly Trump is a loose cannon. Note that I am a non-citizen resident of the US, left of the Democratic party politically, so this isn't me saying I love Mike Pence, but rather that I think he's generally conducted himself with dignity and impressed people within his party. Going into 2020 it's hard to believe Pence wouldn't be a consideration for the presidential nomination.

The real unanswered question for me now is how the party prevents this from happening again, since whether Trump or someone else the populists have the smell of blood on their noses. I would assume a good first pass would be to disqualify candidates who haven't been party members for <x> years, where x is whatever number discourages Trump and people like him. Not sure how you prevent an actual Republican from running a fringe "free media, cover my lunacy" angle though.



I think he correctly thinks that he won't be blamed for the loss, and that he's already put enough daylight between Trump and himself to avoid the taint for his future career. He doesn't want to be an Eagleton or alienate the well more than half of his party that still supports Trump.
Click to expand...

Reince and Ryan still endorse him.
 
Gutek said:
Reince and Ryan still endorse him.
Click to expand...

I think the distinction between "I endorse him, but I will not appear with him and I will redirect resources away from him" and "I don't endorse him" is pretty academic longterm. There's nothing cosmically impactful about the mere fact of saying "I endorse you".
 
ironcreed said:
Trump is destroying himself even more with his Twitter war today and will do so even more still tonight, as he cannot help himself. It's his nature. If Mike Pence cares about his own political future at all, he better bail.
Click to expand...

Neither can "bail". They are BOTH irrevocably on the ballot. My father in law who is a long-haul trucker just mailed in his. Can't wipe this slate clean, it's too late!
 
Stumpokapow said:
I honestly don't think it was the tipping point for any of the elites you're seeing. You're not seeing Christie, Gingrich, Giuliani, and Carson unendorse him. You're seeing a bunch of mainstream Republicans many of whom reluctantly endorsed him to begin with because he was their party's nominee. I think what you have here is a timeline that looks pretty clear; Hillary has pretty consistently been 4-5 points up from Trump and Trump has consistently had a ceiling at 40-41% of the vote. After Hillary's bad month, the race was looking more competitive. Republicans would rather win than lose, so you have situations like Ted Cruz reluctantly endorsing Trump while looking constipated. Now, another few weeks have passed, the first debate was a spanking, and Trump spent the week after being a baby about Miss Universe (Hillary rope-a-doped him so transparently on that, it's hard to believe he fell for it--she read the prompt off a cue-card word for word, it was one of the most obvious situations imaginable). So if you're a Republican, you're thinking "shit, we're losing the presidency" and you're thinking about how to mitigate the downticket damage, particularly marginal senate races.

Now, in that context, this tape comes out. This gives you an out to make it look like your defection is principled rather than strategic. If you're John McCain, you no longer have a primary to worry about, you're going to almost certainly win this November, and now you get to unendorse this guy who climbed to the top by stabbing you in the back. Sounds good to me. Who else is bailing? Paul Ryan (reluctantly endorsed him), Reince Preibus (reluctantly endorsed him), and a bunch of nobody senators and reps mostly people who were barely on board to begin with.

Pence is probably the closest thing to an honest defection, and he's the guy who comes out smelling like absolute roses from all this. Before being recruited to the ticket, Pence was likely going to lose the Indiana gubernatorial race. Inviting him to the ticket means he doesn't have to, sparing him an embarrassing loss. As a Trump surrogate he's struck a good balance of not defending Trump's worst atrocities and trying to integrate Trump into the party, and he's absolutely not to blame for Trump's performance since clearly Trump is a loose cannon. Note that I am a non-citizen resident of the US, left of the Democratic party politically, so this isn't me saying I love Mike Pence, but rather that I think he's generally conducted himself with dignity and impressed people within his party. Going into 2020 it's hard to believe Pence wouldn't be a consideration for the presidential nomination.

The real unanswered question for me now is how the party prevents this from happening again, since whether Trump or someone else the populists have the smell of blood on their noses. I would assume a good first pass would be to disqualify candidates who haven't been party members for <x> years, where x is whatever number discourages Trump and people like him. Not sure how you prevent an actual Republican from running a fringe "free media, cover my lunacy" angle though.



I think he correctly thinks that he won't be blamed for the loss, and that he's already put enough daylight between Trump and himself to avoid the taint for his future career. He doesn't want to be an Eagleton or alienate the well more than half of his party that still supports Trump.
Click to expand...

Sam Wang had a pretty good article on this

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/08/what-color-is-the-swan/

Sam Wang said:
The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up.
Click to expand...
 
Ithil said:
Reap what you sow.

They've courted the bigot vote for years, appealed directly to the ones that hate the establishment, the mainstream, the media, the facts, the ones who love to play the victim and revel in conspiracy theories where everyone is out to get them. The ones that love to hate everything that isn't them.

Well now the situation has come where the GOP itself is now the mainstream establishment to these people they courted and their voter base is being split in two. Moderates won't vote for Trump, extremists won't vote downticket, killing the election chances of both. It may very well be the end of them as a major party if this divide continues til November.
Click to expand...

100%.

They've spent the last 10 years cultivating a base of uneducated, racist, xenophobic, homophobic bigots whose entire reality is based on perception and gut feeling. A base that is explicitly anti-reason, anti-fact, anti-improvement, anti-establishment, and anti-compromise. Now this base has spiraled out of control. They eagerly appointed Trump as their representative and they are now turning on the limp-ass Republicans who thought that somehow this moronic plan would allow them to get whatever it is they wanted.

There are a few old-guard GOP members with some backbone (Romney, Michael Reagan, the Bushes, etc) but Ryan, McConnell, Giuliani and the like can all get fucked. Since Sarah Palin's brief rise to prominence, these guys have been shitting in their own water supply and now they're finally having to drink from it.
 
Does anyone else fear we're going to get a three party system by next election in the worst way possible? Democrats, Ultra Conservative Republicans, and the Lunatic Majority?
 
The Illiterati said:
Does anyone else fear we're going to get a three party system by next election in the worst way possible? Democrats, Ultra Conservative Republicans, and the Lunatic Majority?
Click to expand...
Next Presidential election? That won't happen, and if it did happen it would completely kill the GOP's chances of winning another Presidential election.
 
The Illiterati said:
Does anyone else fear we're going to get a three party system by next election in the worst way possible? Democrats, Ultra Conservative Republicans, and the Lunatic Majority?
Click to expand...

I don't think so but if it somehow happened it would pretty much ensure that Democrats just won everything all the time. The "classic" GOP has always had these freaks we see now in its ranks, they just were more disguised before. Democrats aren't defecting to Trump style Republicanism OR Bush / Reagan style Republicanism any time soon, so it would only hurt the GOP.
 
Why would the Republican party be over, it seems like people just vote for one or the other and even now find it hard to not vote for Trump or whoever is on the ticket. American politics needs a third party but people are set in their ways. If both parties had a Trump candidate of some sort, a third party still wouldn't win..
 
This is absolutely nuts man. I never in my life imagined that this would happen to the fucking GOP man. It's crazy but you know, it's awesome to watch. I'm just sittin back, relaxin and seein what happens next. You never know what may happen, it seems like every second something else comes out that is just as wild as the one before. We have like 10-15 of these to go through still right?
 
jelly said:
Why would the Republican party be over, it seems like people just vote for one or the other and even now find it hard to not vote for Trump or whoever is on the ticket. American politics needs a third party but people are set in their ways.
Click to expand...

Third party makes no sense because of the 270 electoral majority bullshit.
 
CHC said:
100%.

They've spent the last 10 years cultivating a base of uneducated, racist, xenophobic, homophobic bigots whose entire reality is based on perception and gut feeling. A base that is explicitly anti-reason, anti-fact, anti-improvement, anti-establishment, and anti-compromise. Now this base has spiraled out of control. They eagerly appointed Trump as their representative and they are now turning on the limp-ass Republicans who thought that somehow this moronic plan would allow them to get whatever it is they wanted.

There are a few old-guard GOP members with some backbone (Romney, Michael Reagan, the Bushes, etc) but Ryan, McConnell, Giuliani and the like can all get fucked. Since Sarah Palin's brief rise to prominence, these guys have been shitting in their own water supply and now they're finally having to drink from it.
Click to expand...
10 years? Nah, about 40-50. GOP sold out to these types of people since the 1960s.
 
So are we rooting for Donald Trump now? Him succeeding in killing off Republicans' chances in Congress and putting Congress in Democratic hands while also losing the presidency now looks like a reasonable scenario if his new tactic works...

Go Trump!
 
Titanoboa said:
Why is Pence staying on now that there's open war? Does he honestly think Don can pull this one out?
Click to expand...

If by some weird twist trump wins, pence becomes president cause Donald doesn't want it and can make all the nutty laws he wants. The party isn't against him so they don't really care if he stays or goes.
 
Toxi said:
Next Presidential election? That won't happen, and if it did happen it would completely kill the GOP's chances of winning another Presidential election.
Click to expand...

I'm more saying that the Republicans are basically over if they don't continue to support Trump-like candidates, since there's still going to a huge amount of support for a Trump like candidate four years from now. Someone with less baggage but the same bluster could run four years from now and really clean up against Hillary, IMO.
 
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