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UK Labour Leadership Crisis: Corbyn retained as leader by strong margin

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If I was going to write a story about millions of people doing something I'd expect it to be bigger but I guess we can agree to disagree here.
It shouldn't be stated as a population figure.

But the sample size for the poll is not particularly small.

This is not an agree to disagree situation.

There is a recurrence on here to dispute polls, because how can 1,500 people say anything about 30,000,000 or 300,000,000. It's called statistics.
 
4) you don't use poll data like this

A properly representative poll of 450 data points of a population size of about 9.5 million (Labour voters) is a margin of error of 4.5% at 99% confidence level.

Anyway, yes you do - more normally to do a uniform national swing measurement. Tories gain 3% vs last GE results in this poll, this is how many seats they stand to win if that 3% was spread equally.
 
It shouldn't be stated as a population figure.

But the sample size for the poll is not particularly small.

This is not an agree to disagree situation.

But you can't not agree to disagree. If you don't agree to disagree then you're back to disagreeing again, which is what you were apparently trying not to agree to do. Don't you agree?
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
A properly representative poll of 450 data points of a population size of about 9.5 million (Labour voters) is a margin of error of 4.5% at 99% confidence level.

Anyway, yes you do - more normally to do a uniform national swing measurement. Tories gain 3% vs last GE results in this poll, this is how many seats they stand to win if that 3% was spread equally.

my problem was the way it was reported not the data.

But you can't not agree to disagree. If you don't agree to disagree then you're back to disagreeing again, which is what you were apparently trying not to agree to do. Don't you agree?

I... disagree.

send help.
 

Jackpot

Banned
1) 29% of 1680 is about 487 aka a few hundred. not 2.7m.

"what was the sample size of this yougov poll? a few hundred?"

You said the sample size of the poll was a few hundred. Why these torturous mental gymnastics just to avoid owning up a to a mistake?

the sample is size tiny especially if that's what you're basing a story like that on

Mathematically false. Try reading up on confidence intervals.

edit: honestly I was going to let this go but this seems to have become the weapon of choice on gaf when someone wants to validate their opinion or it fits their narrative. They'll take a daily poll that samples a thousand people and fill in the blanks.

Damn this GAF and its reliance on facts to validate their opinion.
 
I'm not seeing an issue with Smith's policies. I'd vote for him.

...What am I missing?

Leader is kind and gentle, unlike parasitic blairite scum!

lenin-and-children-on-christmas-wood-feast-550.jpg
 

RedShift

Member
If I was going to write a story about millions of people doing something I'd expect it to be bigger but I guess we can agree to disagree here.

What sample size would you expect? Is it based on stats or just a vague feeling?

~1600 is perfectly reasonable.
 

PJV3

Member
Roll up, roll up, for the death of the Labour party.

He had to be on the ballot but the party is fucked.
 

BigAl1992

Member
The entire leadership contest is basically over by this point. There's no way corbyn is going to lose based on the figures in the Labour membership. I Still think he isn't up to the task as a party leader, but then again it's labour's fault for putting him as party leader in the first place.
 

Jezbollah

Member
Roll up, roll up, for the death of the Labour party.

He had to be on the ballot but the party is fucked.

Yep.

I'm now starting to think that it's sense for May to call an election soon after Corbyn is re-elected leader. Two reasons - 1) the obvious disarray that Labour are in and 2) so the election can be used as an excuse to delay the Brexit renegotiations.
 

PJV3

Member
Yep.

I'm now starting to think that it's sense for May to call an election soon after Corbyn is re-elected leader. Two reasons - 1) the obvious disarray that Labour are in and 2) so the election can be used as an excuse to delay the Brexit renegotiations.


That would probably suit the PLP, get the slaughter out of the way, it would be too soon for deselecting the MPs?
 
Yep.

I'm now starting to think that it's sense for May to call an election soon after Corbyn is re-elected leader. Two reasons - 1) the obvious disarray that Labour are in and 2) so the election can be used as an excuse to delay the Brexit renegotiations.

It will be very tempting for her to try. However if she plays it long and waits for the new boundary changes/ mass deselections of lab mps/ possible party split then she really could destroy Labour in 2020. Going early also gives the rebels another chance go get rid of Corbyn (assuming Labour lose that is!)
 

Maledict

Member
I'm being serious too.

A cult of personality has been created around Jeremy Corbyn.

It's exactly the same with Sanders in the USA. WE on the left have a habit of focussing too much energy on one person rather than systemic change. It's where the right are much better organised - to change the system you need to engage at every level, not just the person at the top.
 
Seriously... I'm genuinely curious why Smith hasn't gotten more of a push if those are policies he's running with. Is he full of shit? Is he just a bit too dull? Genuinely curious.

They think he is a blairite who will say anything to get elected. Ive no idea if he is or not as I'd never even heard of him until he ran for leader.
 

PJV3

Member
They think he is a blairite who will say anything to get elected. Ive no idea if he is or not as I'd never even heard of him until he ran for leader.


That stuff just annoys me, complain about being ignored by the elite, as soon as someone shifts slightly to compromise then they are being false and a vote grabber.
 
Seriously... I'm genuinely curious why Smith hasn't gotten more of a push if those are policies he's running with. Is he full of shit? Is he just a bit too dull? Genuinely curious.

A push by whom?

The Labour Party put a left-winger on the ballot paper at a time when left-wing movements were happening across Europe and even the US with Bernie Sanders. It was obvious there would be a wave of support for Corbyn.

Now they're stuck because voting for a new Labour leader isn't really that interesting, especially when Pokemon Go just came out, so you can't expect more people to join up to vote for Smith.

Corbyn's not a cult of personality, it's just that 90% of politicians are despised.
 

Condom

Member
It's exactly the same with Sanders in the USA. WE on the left have a habit of focussing too much energy on one person rather than systemic change. It's where the right are much better organised - to change the system you need to engage at every level, not just the person at the top.
Which is ironic because the preference for the 'one person' comes because they talk about system change while the centrists don't.

Now if only more peoples would do both talk system change and engage on all levels to make that possible, that'd be nice.
 

Jackpot

Banned
Yep.

I'm now starting to think that it's sense for May to call an election soon after Corbyn is re-elected leader. Two reasons - 1) the obvious disarray that Labour are in and 2) so the election can be used as an excuse to delay the Brexit renegotiations.

We have fixed 5 year terms unless May can convince 2/3 of parliament to vote for an early one.
 
They think he is a blairite who will say anything to get elected. Ive no idea if he is or not as I'd never even heard of him until he ran for leader.

Stop believing the shitty posts shared on Facebook, they're a minority. The hundreds of thousands that have come out to vote for Corbyn over the last year aren't going to vote for Owen Smith for the reason they have also never heard of him until he ran.
 
A push by whom?

The Labour Party put a left-winger on the ballot paper at a time when left-wing movements were happening across Europe and even the US with Bernie Sanders. It was obvious there would be a wave of support for Corbyn.

Now they're stuck because voting for a new Labour leader isn't really that interesting, especially when Pokemon Go just came out, so you can't expect more people to join up to vote for Smith.

Corbyn's not a cult of personality, it's just that 90% of politicians are despised.

I'm afraid it is a cult of personality. I would take issue with people saying they're a CULT, but he does have a cult of personality. It's got all the classic beats of a personality cult, too.

Leader is kind and gentle.
Leader speaks for the people.
Leader's enemies are out to destroy us.
There can be no compromise with Leader's vision.
The people are only here for Leader.
Anyone who doesn't follow Leader isn't really one of us.
The people love leader! (ignore all suggestions to the contrary)
Nothing bad that happens is leader's fault, it's always the enemy!
 

kmag

Member
We have fixed 5 year terms unless May can convince 2/3 of parliament to vote for an early one.

It'd take a while (go through the readings process), but a simple majority vote is all that is required to remove the fixed term parliament act. Then a simple majority no confidence and bobs your uncle
 

Acorn

Member
It'd take a while (go through the readings process), but a simple majority vote is all that is required to remove the fixed term parliament act. Then a simple majority no confidence and bobs your uncle
Hope the fta gets removed soon.

Fucking 5 year governments is ridiculous when it was previously the maximum only used by walking dead govts (Major, Brown). If it has to be fixed 4 years makes more sense
 
It'd take a while (go through the readings process), but a simple majority vote is all that is required to remove the fixed term parliament act. Then a simple majority no confidence and bobs your uncle

You don't need to repeal the FTPA to call a vote of no confidence. The possibility of a vote of no confidence is in the FTPA - s.2(3).
 
Stop believing the shitty posts shared on Facebook, they're a minority. The hundreds of thousands that have come out to vote for Corbyn over the last year aren't going to vote for Owen Smith for the reason they have also never heard of him until he ran.

Fair enough, I guess that's all it takes to fail to gather momentum.
 
I'm afraid it is a cult of personality. I would take issue with people saying they're a CULT, but he does have a cult of personality. It's got all the classic beats of a personality cult, too.

Leader is kind and gentle.
Leader speaks for the people.
Leader's enemies are out to destroy us.
There can be no compromise with Leader's vision.
The people are only here for Leader.
Anyone who doesn't follow Leader isn't really one of us.
The people love leader! (ignore all suggestions to the contrary)
Nothing bad that happens is leader's fault, it's always the enemy!

Na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-Leader!
 
I don't think they'd struggle to get 2/3rds. How can opposition parties possibly justify voting *in favour* of keeping their opponents in government? The Tories would only need to get about 1/3rd of their MPs whipped.
 

Mindwipe

Member
I don't think they'd struggle to get 2/3rds. How can opposition parties possibly justify voting *in favour* of keeping their opponents in government? The Tories would only need to get about 1/3rd of their MPs whipped.

Yup yup yup.

I know the PLP hates their membership, but even they're not dumb enough to try and go to them and say they actively voted for a Tory government.
 
Seriously... I'm genuinely curious why Smith hasn't gotten more of a push if those are policies he's running with. Is he full of shit? Is he just a bit too dull? Genuinely curious.
Ex-Pfizer lobbyist. Abstained on the welfare bill last year. Despite being Shadow DWP Minister for 9 months, the idea he put forward against zero hour contracts is...one hour contracts. Basically, seems simultaneously untrustworthy and useless

I'm afraid it is a cult of personality. I would take issue with people saying they're a CULT, but he does have a cult of personality. It's got all the classic beats of a personality cult, too.

Leader is kind and gentle.
Leader speaks for the people.
Leader's enemies are out to destroy us.
There can be no compromise with Leader's vision.
The people are only here for Leader.
Anyone who doesn't follow Leader isn't really one of us.
The people love leader! (ignore all suggestions to the contrary)
Nothing bad that happens is leader's fault, it's always the enemy!
Nice strawmen you got there

For reference, I'd be happy with Clive Lewis, Richard Burgon, John McDonnell, anyone from the actual left, even if some of them are a bit inexperienced. But none of them are going to get enough nominations from other MPs because last time it happened we got Corbyn and they had a collective breakdown at the concept of an actual socialist leading Labour so they won't let it happen again.
 
http://www.newstatesman.com/2016/07/jeremy-corbyn-and-paranoid-style

Brutal

This summer, Corbyn is fighting another leadership election. The main focus of his campaign so far has been an attempt to paint his rival Owen Smith as a “Big Pharma shill”, while Corbyn’s most influential supporter, Unite’s Len McCluskey, has claimed that MI5 are waging a dirty tricks campaign against the Leader of the Opposition. On stage Corbyn has attacked national media for failing to cover a parish council by-election.

----

Hofstadter’s 1964 essay was inspired by McCarthyism, but the Paranoid Style as a political and psychological phenomenon has been with us for as long as modern politics. Of course conspiracies and misdeeds can happen, but the Paranoid Style builds up an apocalyptic vision of a future driven entirely by dark conspiracies. The NHS won’t just be a bit worse; it will be destroyed in 24 hours. Opponents aren’t simply wrong, but evil incarnate; near-omnipotent super-villains control the media, the banks, even history itself. Through most of history, movements like this have remained at the fringes of politics; and when they move into the mainstream bad things tend to happen.

To pick one example among many, science broadcaster Marcus Chown’s Twitter feed is full of statements that fall apart at the slightest touch. We learn that billionaires control 80 per cent of the media – they don’t. We learn that the BBC were “playing down” the Panama Papers story, tweeted on a day when it led the TV news bulletins and was the number one story on their news site. We learn that the Tories are lying when they say they’ve increased spending on the NHS. As FullFact report, the Tories have increased NHS spending in both absolute and real terms. We learn via a retweet that Labour were ahead of the Conservatives in polling before a leadership challenge; they weren’t.

----


Bewildered and infuriated by the BBC’s refusal to run hard-left soundbites as headlines, the paranoid left assume Auntie is involved in some sort of right-wing establishment plot. Public figures such as Laura Kuenssberg, the Corporation’s political editor, have been subjected to a campaign of near-permanent abuse from the left, much of it reeking of misogyny. By asking Labour figures questions as tough as those she routinely puts to Conservative politicians, she has exposed her true role as a “Tory propagandist whore”, a “fucking cunt bag”, or a “Murdoch puppet”.

This was the context in which Corbyn’s leadership campaign was fought, and with his own dislike of the media and love of a good conspiracy theorist, he swiftly became a figurehead for the paranoid left. Suddenly, the cranks and conspiracy theorists had a home in his Labour party; and they flocked to it in their tens of thousands. Of course most Corbynistas aren’t cranks, but an intense and vocal minority are, and they have formed a poisonous core at the heart of the cause.

The result is a Truther-style movement that exists in almost complete denial of reality. Polls showing double-digit leads for the Conservatives are routinely decried as the fabrications of sinister mainstream media figures. The local elections in May, which saw Corbyn’s Labour perform worse than most opposition leaders in recent history, triggered a series of memes insisting that results were just fine. Most bewildering of all is a conspiracy theory which insists that Labour MPs who quit the shadow cabinet and declared ‘no confidence’ in Corbyn were somehow orchestrated by the PR firm, Portland Communications.
 

haxamin

Member
Nice strawmen you got there

.

Except.. Its not a strawman.
Look up his supporters' responses to the latest polls. The staggering level of hoop jumping is astounding. Heck, I've made a Momentum parody page last week and over 50 genuine supporters liked it. You can't make this stuff up.
 
Except.. Its not a strawman.
Look up his supporters' responses to the latest polls. The staggering level of hoop jumping is astounding. Heck, I've made a Momentum parody page last week and over 50 genuine supporters liked it. You can't make this stuff up.

Oh my god over 50?!

And sure, everyone's got some weird fans, but treating the hundreds of thousands who have joined Labour to support him as if they're all like that is utterly ridiculous
 
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