Support NeoGAF

[ZombieFred]

Here's the overview of the manufacturing PMI releases from this morning.

Brazil: 50.6
Australia: 51.6
UK: 52.1
Greece: 41.0
Germany: 51.0
France 48.5
Italy: 46.8
Spain: 45.1
Ireland: 48.3
India: 57.5
Russia: 50.8
China: 48.8
Netherlands: 49.0
South Korea: 49.2
Japan: 50.7

A figure below 50 indicates a contraction, above 50 is growth. For employment growth in the sector a figure of about 51.5 is needed, but that's not a hard and fast rule.

Looking at the above figures, the EMU is mired in recession with the outlook looking very bad, only Germany are seeing growth, and that is from safe haven investment monies flowing from the EU into Germany. It's the same reason we're in a relatively better position, we're outside the EMU and do well out of it.

Anyway, while manufacturing may be important, services is the most important part of the economy as it accounts for 70% of all economic output, we expect the Services PMI figure to come in at 54.5 and the Construction PMI to come in at 53.0 for a composite UK PMI of about 53.7 for January.

The PMI measurement itself is actually about measuring order book growth, so January order book growth will result in February output growth so the ONS won't measure the January growth figures until February. December figures were quite positive all around which is why we think January economic output growth is about 0.2%, with the positive figures and estimates coming in now for Jan, we expect Feb output growth to be quite robust too.

Excellent, this is great stuff. It's good to actually see some of the long term stuff slowly showing itself so it's good to see how well the government has manage to deal with that and our deficit. It's still hard times for some though.

 

[Walshicus]

you didn't really tackle any of the other issues I've raised

and to Frag's point, I can't believe that you're saying, "well England would be a really good market for sustainable energy!". What madness is this, wanting independence and then relying on an energy sector that would largely be dependent on England buying it anyway. Ridiculous.

Who's relying on the energy sector? The gains to be had from the exploitation of wind energy in Scotland are incremental. It seems again that you delight in knowing little about the actual Scottish economy; Silicon Glen, manufacturing, agriculture...

And even if, *even if* the entire Scottish economy were 100% reliant on English custom, so what? How does that impact the fact that the Scottish electorate are fundamentally different in their requirements to the English or Welsh or Ulster?

 

[Meadows]

Who's relying on the energy sector? The gains to be had from the exploitation of wind energy in Scotland are incremental. It seems again that you delight in knowing little about the actual Scottish economy; Silicon Glen, manufacturing, agriculture...

And even if, *even if* the entire Scottish economy were 100% reliant on English custom, so what? How does that impact the fact that the Scottish electorate are fundamentally different in their requirements to the English or Welsh or Ulster?

I'd really like it if we could have a debate on GAF about Scottish independence without you insulting people who disagree with you. I really can't be bothered talking about it when you're involved really, you just stir shit and call people ignorant or god knows what else because they hold different opinions.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Even China is contracting. India is going crazy though. 57.5, damn.

China's absolute figures include the Chinese new year, so the normalised figure is actually about 50.5.

wow, what great figures, definitely light at the end of the tunnel stuff (2nd best in the world is a fucking achievement next to the Eurozone). Can't help but think that the CON/LD coalition has been a pretty decent success, especially as coalitions are so rare.

thanks again for posting, you add a lot to UK PoliGAF

Third, the US figure came out and they are above us. Of the developed + BRIC nations we are actually in a pretty strong position. We got the detail and it looks like our manufacturers are growing because of increased orders and demand from developing and BRIC nations rather than EU nations. Its definitely good to see that the government policy to expand our reach working now. The single market will continue to be our most important market for a long time yet, but as European power and influence wanes we need to make sure we don't sink with them and exporting our goods to BRIC and developing nations is of extreme importance.

Excellent, this is great stuff. It's good to actually see some of the long term stuff slowly showing itself so it's good to see how well the government has manage to deal with that and our deficit. It's still hard times for some though.

It's not easy for anyone right now, but there are signs of a turnaround, however faint. I think this is where it starts though, we have seen it already in the past six months with FDI growing and UK companies looking to expand on the back of better trade with developing and BRIC nations.

 

[Walshicus]

I'd really like it if we could have a debate on GAF about Scottish independence without you insulting people who disagree with you. I really can't be bothered talking about it when you're involved really, you just stir shit and call people ignorant or god knows what else because they hold different opinions.

Not sure I see any undeserved insult there, but your absence is welcomed.

 

[Meadows]

Not sure I see any undeserved insult there, but your absence is welcomed.

"it seems you delight in knowing little about the Scottish economy"

what's the point, really?

 

[Meadows]

Third, the US figure came out and they are above us. Of the developed + BRIC nations we are actually in a pretty strong position. We got the detail and it looks like our manufacturers are growing because of increased orders and demand from developing and BRIC nations rather than EU nations. Its definitely good to see that the government policy to expand our reach working now. The single market will continue to be our most important market for a long time yet, but as European power and influence wanes we need to make sure we don't sink with them and exporting our goods to BRIC and developing nations is of extreme importance.

It's not easy for anyone right now, but there are signs of a turnaround, however faint. I think this is where it starts though, we have seen it already in the past six months with FDI growing and UK companies looking to expand on the back of better trade with developing and BRIC nations.

Awesome, how are we doing as a safe haven? Is international investment in the UK doing alright (relatively)?

 

[StealthGoblin]

The basic is about £42.5k, I think.

Thats fucking ridiculous. . .and they still want extra money. Fuck.

 

[J Tourettes]

Thats fucking ridiculous. . .and they still want extra money. Fuck.

Good luck to them. As annoying as it can be when they strike, at least they've got a strong union that's not afraid to play hardball. It'll probably bite them on the arse post Olympics if Bojo gets in again though.

 

[Walshicus]

Thats fucking ridiculous. . .and they still want extra money. Fuck.

It'd be interesting to normalise that to an adjusted Purchasing Power Parity figure. It does look quite high, but for London?

 

[Meadows]

It'd be interesting to normalise that to an adjusted Purchasing Power Parity figure. It does look quite high, but for London?

people make a lot of hay about how expensive London is, but if you live in an outer area and live frugally it's pretty similar to the rest of the UK, £46,000 in London would probably get you as far as, say, £38,000 would in Manchester/Brum, so it's still massively over-payed. Or maybe other blue collar workers are underpayed, suppose it's a bit of both.

 

[killer_clank]

some possible slight signs of economic growth are vaguely good (though it honestly wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't come to much, we've been of good signs for a while and we went into negative growth last quarter).

but in possibly achieving it, the coalition have fucked over students, and are in the process of fucking over the disabled and vulnerable, and are ruining the NHS in England, and still borrowed WAY over their plans, meaning the deficit won't even be sorted by next election. Terrible so far, IMO.

 

[StealthGoblin]

To compare, the average wage for a teacher in London is £32,200.

 

[milanbaros]

some possible slight signs of economic growth are vaguely good (though it honestly wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't come to much, we've been of good signs for a while and we went into negative growth last quarter).

but in possibly achieving it, the coalition have fucked over students, and are in the process of fucking over the disabled and vulnerable, and are ruining the NHS in England, and still borrowed WAY over their plans, meaning the deficit won't even be sorted by next election. Terrible so far, IMO.

I thought borrowing was coming under what was planned/predicted?

 

[killer_clank]

I thought borrowing was coming under what was planned/predicted?

the revised estimates i think, not the original ones.

 

[Ashes]

To compare, the average wage for a teacher in London is £32,200.

Isn't that wrong? unless most teachers are on the higher pay scale or my memory is failing me.

 

[StealthGoblin]

Isn't that wrong? unless most teachers are on the higher pay scale or my memory is failing me.

That takes into account the NQT's who start at the bottom end of the 20k's and the middle management and headteachers. Schools prefer to employ NQT's because of financial reasons.

To be honest, most figures vary but they fall between 32k and 38k for London.

 

[J Tourettes]

people make a lot of hay about how expensive London is, but if you live in an outer area and live frugally it's pretty similar to the rest of the UK, £46,000 in London would probably get you as far as, say, £38,000 would in Manchester/Brum, so it's still massively over-payed. Or maybe other blue collar workers are underpayed, suppose it's a bit of both.

Not so sure on that comparison, especially when rent and/or property prices are taken into account for those hoping to one day get on the property ladder in outer London.

 

[killer_clank]

My MP is destroying the government right now in the Welfare Reform debate. (first time I've ever seen her speak, actually) The cap is OK in principle, but the cutting benefits of disabled people is dispicable.

 

[Meadows]

My MP is destroying the government right now in the Welfare Reform debate. (first time I've ever seen her speak, actually) The cap is OK in principle, but the cutting benefits of disabled people is dispicable.

yeah I agree, there should be concessions to the profoundly disabled, although there are many people with 'disabilities' that really don't warrant the amount of benefit money that is given to them (people with a gammy ankle claiming £15k or those who fake it completely).

It's a difficult task but we shouldn't cut benefits to carers and the profoundly disabled.

Got 7 kids and can't be arsed working? Couldn't give a toss, make ends meet or the kids go into care.

 

[louis89]

the coalition have fucked over students

The amount of kids applying to university this year, who will be the first to be affected by the fee increases, when adjusted for population decline, declined by only around 1.6%. It didn't put people off going to university, and in fact it's making kids consider more carefully what courses they choose, which is a good thing.

 

[killer_clank]

yeah I agree, there should be concessions to the profoundly disabled, although there are many people with 'disabilities' that really don't warrant the amount of benefit money that is given to them (people with a gammy ankle claiming £15k or those who fake it completely).

It's a difficult task but we shouldn't cut benefits to carers and the profoundly disabled.

Got 7 kids and can't be arsed working? Couldn't give a toss, make ends meet or the kids go into care.

The problem is the means testing and medical examinations that go along with disability benefits can annoy and stigmatise legitimately disabled people, but then they are needed to stop the scroungers. Definitely a fine line to be found in disability benefits, but I think legitimately disabled people should be totally exempt from any cap.

 

[Meadows]

The problem is the means testing and medical examinations that go along with disability benefits can annoy and stigmatise legitimately disabled people, but then they are needed to stop the scroungers. Definitely a fine line to be found in disability benefits, but I think legitimately disabled people should be totally exempt from any cap.

yeah, I think that means testing is needed. It's unfortunate that it comes to that, but if the legitimately disabled are helped by extra funding that is gained from cutting out fakers then it's a net gain for everyone. Apart from the scumbags.

 

[defel]

My MP is destroying the government right now in the Welfare Reform debate. (first time I've ever seen her speak, actually) The cap is OK in principle, but the cutting benefits of disabled people is dispicable.

Im trying to find some clear, factual based information on this on the BBC, DWP website and parliament.uk but its very difficult. From what Im reading the Disability Living Allowance will be scrapped for 16-64 year olds and replaced with a Personal Independence Payment but its unclear what that means. The government say that disabled people will be given benefits based on a "new claims and assessment process" but what does that even mean? Im in favour of a more personal, case-by-case assessment of disability benefits but judging how much money a person with disability A deserves over someone with disability B is so subjective. Outside of financial benefits for the disabled (or wealth transfers) what will be happening to the other services that help disabled people such as transport or community assistance? I assume that these are the areas in which the government will attempt to save money.

I can understand that moving from DLA to PIP and going to "one-on-one" assessments would be stressful and cause great anxiety for those who are unsure about how much better or worse off they will be under the new system. I suspect that some disabled people will be better off under the new system and that some will be worse off under the new system and much of the discontent is down to uncertainty about whether we as a country are going to take care of the disabled in the future.

Does anyone have any good links that give a more objective assessment of this? Im sick of seeing Liam Bryne lay into the welfare reform bill on one hand, DWP ministers claiming that the welfare reform bill is the best thing since sliced bread on the other, and BBC articles with sensational claims that the welfare reform bill could lead "to disabled people taking their own lives". None of this is helpful in actually understanding what the bill means for disabled people.

 

[J Tourettes]

If it's anything like the current assessments that are being carried out, people with mental health problems will lose out.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

some possible slight signs of economic growth are vaguely good (though it honestly wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't come to much, we've been of good signs for a while and we went into negative growth last quarter).

but in possibly achieving it, the coalition have fucked over students, and are in the process of fucking over the disabled and vulnerable, and are ruining the NHS in England, and still borrowed WAY over their plans, meaning the deficit won't even be sorted by next election. Terrible so far, IMO.

Still better than the alternative of going bankrupt under Labour.

The IFS released their figures on how Labour's plans would have played out long term and they think the UK would have had a £123bn deficit in 2016 using Darling's fiscal consolidation plans and realistic growth figures (even taking into account the extra growth from some level of fiscal stimulus). That compares with £24bn under coalition plans. Under Labour our bank has calculated that UK debt would peak at £2tn, or about 115% of GDP before it started coming down. That's the same as Italy. Under Coalition plans the debt will peak at just under 82% of GDP, with just £1.4tn accumulated before it begins to come down. Labour would add £600bn of extra debt according to the IFS and our projected figures, that would destroy this country's credibility, we aren't like the US, our economy isn't as dynamic and we don't have the world's reserve currency.

The government is spending too much money, and it needs to make savings. That's the crux of it. Some of the gap has been made up with higher levels of taxation (actually a great deal of it has) but most needs to come from spending cuts and reining in of what the government does. For example tax credits need to change so that the government lets people keep more of their own money than take it off them and then give it back out, that means a higher personal allowance and axing the working tax credit. No more child tax credits, move towards a working parents allowance. In that way the government doesn't need to hire 200,000 extra people to take the money and then administer it. That's what the universal benefits system is about.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Huhne's finally gone.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16866127

I'm guessing the conservatives are pretty happy with this, not to mention Clegg. Not often you'd see a government cheerful that one of their cabinet ministers was forced to resign.

He's always seemed quite an odious guy, and didn't seem to be doing well with his brief, so I can't say I'm sorry to see the back of him.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Services PMI figures came out this morning. UK powering ahead on 56! Beating our most optimistic estimates. Construction came in at the lower end at 51.6 yesterday, but given the size of the industry compared to manufacturing and services slow growth isn't really a killer for the economy.

We estimate a composite PMI of 54.2 for January indicating strong order book growth, and that will drive strong output growth in February driving around 0.2-3% growth. We will have to have a look at Feb PMIs before estimating what the output growth for the quarter will be, but from today's figures I don't see how we will fall into a recession. It looks extremely unlikely. I would say -0.1% for Q4 restated from -0.2%, and Q1 to come in at around 0.4-0.6% growth confounding expectations from last month.

The economic situation will start to look a lot better in April/May.

 

[sohois]

Huhne's finally gone.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16866127

I'm guessing the conservatives are pretty happy with this, not to mention Clegg. Not often you'd see a government cheerful that one of their cabinet ministers was forced to resign.

He's always seemed quite an odious guy, and didn't seem to be doing well with his brief, so I can't say I'm sorry to see the back of him.

Huhne was quite anti-nuclear if I'm not mistaken, so for that reason I'm glad he's gone. Any speculation on who is going to replace him yet?

 

[Meadows]

Say what you want about Huhne but he was, in my eyes, a pretty decent Energy Secretary and he did way better at Durban than Miliband did in Copenhagen.

Personally I didn't like him, hope some young blood get a chance at the position.

 

[radioheadrule83]

I like Huhne...

obviously it's right that he step down while the case rolls on, and if he's guilty its right that he should be punished but honestly?

The common man on the street doesn't give a fuck. It's one of those things that the news-media love to get hold of and blow out of all proportion -- I was sitting there watching the news last night, thinking "next story please, I just don't care!"...... We all hate speed cameras, especially in places where they're just raising money / not particularly saving lives, I think he'll have a lot of sympathy from motorists - even if he's guilty.

He's still protesting his innocence though, you'd think if the CPS actually had any significant evidence that he wouldn't actually be doing that... we'll see.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Personally I found him far too enamoured of wind energy. I'm in favour of a good nuclear/renewables mix of energy, but wind does not seem particularly reliable to bank on so heavily.

Huhne was quite anti-nuclear if I'm not mistaken, so for that reason I'm glad he's gone. Any speculation on who is going to replace him yet?

BBC reckons Ed Davey is a fairly likely candidate.

He's still protesting his innocence though, you'd think if the CPS actually had any significant evidence that he wouldn't actually be doing that... we'll see.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/1999/jun/09/uk.matthewengel

 

[radioheadrule83]

Bring back Laws, he was another decent, personable and likeable MP who doesn't sound like a lie-manufacturing PR robot. If ya do the crime ya gotta do the time I guess... but do I ever wish it was some of the fucking horrible scum in parliament who were getting caught being naughty instead..

 

[Meadows]

Bring back Laws, he was another decent, personable and likeable MP who doesn't sound like a lie-manufacturing PR robot. If ya do the crime ya gotta do the time I guess... but do I ever wish it was some of the fucking horrible scum in parliament who were getting caught being naughty instead..

.

Laws was a fantastic politician and needs to come back, Cameron and Clegg have said in public that they want him back in cabinet, so he's obviously a very powerful politician to have.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Huhne was anti-nuclear?

Can't say I'm upset at his departure then.

 

[killer_clank]

.

Laws was a fantastic politician and needs to come back, Cameron and Clegg have said in public that they want him back in cabinet, so he's obviously a very powerful politician to have.

I agree, I felt sorry for him when he left, it was hardly your average expenses scandal.

 

[killer_clank]

Services PMI figures came out this morning. UK powering ahead on 56! Beating our most optimistic estimates. Construction came in at the lower end at 51.6 yesterday, but given the size of the industry compared to manufacturing and services slow growth isn't really a killer for the economy.

We estimate a composite PMI of 54.2 for January indicating strong order book growth, and that will drive strong output growth in February driving around 0.2-3% growth. We will have to have a look at Feb PMIs before estimating what the output growth for the quarter will be, but from today's figures I don't see how we will fall into a recession. It looks extremely unlikely. I would say -0.1% for Q4 restated from -0.2%, and Q1 to come in at around 0.4-0.6% growth confounding expectations from last month.

The economic situation will start to look a lot better in April/May.

But here's a report that says we'll go into recession.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16864664

any thoughts?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

But here's a report that says we'll go into recession.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16864664

any thoughts?

We'll see. I think our bank has a better record than NIESR at predicting growth.

 

[killer_clank]

We'll see. I think our bank has a better record than NIESR at predicting growth.

Let's hope. Any signs of things improving have to be good, it's been horrendously depressing the last 4 years.

 

[phisheep]

I agree, I felt sorry for him when he left, it was hardly your average expenses scandal.

Well, it was and it wasn't.

I like the guy, think he did a wonderful job in the coalition negotiations and his very short time in office, BUT ... all this stuff about he did it to conceal his sexuality is bullshit. If that were the only motive (and I do appreciate it is a powerful one) he could have done so without claiming those expenses at all.

Thing is, that's more of a blight on him than it would be on others because of how powerfully he came across open and objective and sensible. And of course he was in this with 500+ others and was unfortunate to get picked on when fresh in government.

But still, he knew or should have known that was not right and that it was against the rules. So either he's easily led by the peer pressure of other MPs on the take, or he's irredeemably stupid - neither of which I believe of him - or he was at pains to be part of the crowd in the commons, which worries me in the extreme.

If you to cross Laws with Skinner and Field you'd probably have the ideal politician (depending on the proportions), but this expenses stuff has probably ruined a very glittering career already and it is his own stupid fault.

 

[Clay Davis]

£11 billion of unpaid taxes written off by the treasury.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/treasury-wrote-off-11bn-unpaid-tax-052001908.html

£11b written off? let's cut more public services and screw over as many people who depend on social services as possible.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

£11 billion of unpaid taxes written off by the treasury.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/treasury-wrote-off-11bn-unpaid-tax-052001908.html

£11b written off? let's cut more public services and screw over as many people who depend on social services as possible.

"The Treasury was not fully aware of the figure until it appeared in the Whole of Government Accounts (WGA) for 2009 to 2010, according to the Public Accounts Committee."

That is the figure from April 2009 - March 2010. I wonder who was in government at the time. Fucking read the article next time and don't just go blaming whomever fits your personal agenda.

Uncollected tax is a problem of the way taxes are collected, a lot of that figure will be down to business people dying before their taxes are paid, and the stupid sweetheart deals that Labour came up with to allow big companies (Vodafone, Goldman Sachs for example) to avoid paying their full tax bill. The former is not something the government can do anything about, but the sweetheart deals have come to an end now.

 

[Meadows]

Zomg, your lot got any estimates on how talk of closing down tax havens like Isle of Man/Jersey would go?

Higher tax revenue or just further offshoring?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Zomg, your lot got any estimates on how talk of closing down tax havens like Isle of Man/Jersey would go?

Higher tax revenue or just further offshoring?

I'm no expert, but my gut says that we would lose more from payroll taxes from companies move abroad than we would gain in income and corporation tax from those that stay. These companies and individuals are in these tax havens because they do not wish to be taxed, moving their residency to Switzerland, Belize or Monaco wouldn't be particularly difficult but we would lose the indirect taxes and it could cause job losses if it concerns a company. Just look at how many jobs the UK has lost to Ireland over the past 10 years because of the crazy low tax rates offered there.

The law of unintended consequences tells me that we should just leave things as they are, and if some bright spark has a good idea to earn some money and create jobs but decides to do it from Jersey to avoid tax I am just happy that the jobs are being created here in the UK rather than in France if the person was forced to move to Monaco or Geneva.

 

[killer_clank]

Cameron was dire today at pmq's. Ed Miliband was surprisingly good, though it can't be that hard to slam that piece of shit health bill. Lansley and that bill has to go.

 

[kurtrussell]

Cameron was dire today at pmq's. Ed Miliband was surprisingly good, though it can't be that hard to slam that piece of shit health bill. Lansley and that bill has to go.

https://twitter.com/#!/iainmartin1/status/167222569617981440

 

[Jackpot]

Twitter tells me 10 O'clock Live is back on tonight.

 

[killer_clank]

Twitter tells me 10 O'clock Live is back on tonight.

it could be a good show, but fell flat a bit last time. Brooker and Mitchell were good, the other 2 not so much. And the live audience was terrible, hopefully that goes or they make it smaller.

 

[Meadows]

So Zomg, what's your bank's view on the trade deficit news that came out today? and what about the extra £50bn QE?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

So Zomg, what's your bank's view on the trade deficit news that came out today? and what about the extra £50bn QE?

All good news, though the most important news is the industrial and manufacturing production figures. Both are way ahead of expectations, manufacturing of goods was up 1% MoM with expectations of just 0.3% growth (our bank said 0.7%). Total industrial production was up 0.5% but that includes mining, quarrying and oil and gas production as well and since the latter is in reverse (at least until the government awards licences for shale gas extraction in Lancs and the Falkland Islands production gets online in 2014) a 0.5% rise is pretty good.

The QE is good because it will push up inflation now that the VAT rise is out of the equation, while that may seem counter intuitive high inflation (which is real terms debt deflation) is what the country needs right now. It may hit spending power, but the nation is so highly geared that 2-3 years of 4-5% inflation will bring our indebtedness down to somewhat more manageable levels. If the government are tough enough they will carry the high inflation through until 2013/14 and raise VAT in December to 23% to force more inflation and to close a further £15bn from the deficit which will reduce it to more sustainable levels much faster (2015/16 rather than 2017/18).

All in all, our bank is reworking the GDP growth estimates for developed nations and I have seen the preliminary figures. If we are right the UK will grow third fastest behind the US and Canada. France, Germany, Netherlands will stagnate and the rest of the Eurozone nations will contract. Long term our trend growth is higher than the rest of Europe but slower than the US. Again, if we are correct, the OBR will restate long term growth in March and the Chancellor should find himself with £30bn to spend (or close the deficit with) over the next 4 years.