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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
the US came out alright, it would have come out quicker if the Republicans didn't throw their toys out of the pram though.
But yeah, the Eurozone fucked up bigtime.
PJV3
Member
Agreed, but i think we fucked up as well, we had good growth figures (and maybe my memory is hazy/wrong) lower than expected borrowing following the last general election and threw it away too eagerly. Zomg might be right to be positive about our outlook, but i fear we will be entering a Greek style viscious cycle if we react to Moodys and start slashing more.
The US has not followed austerity madness like us or the Europeans. Maybe our government's economic religion is the wrong one.
Further cuts, more additional borrowing, downgrade from the ratings muppets and round and round we go.
We are going to be in the shitter for years.
Clay Davis
Member
More cuts and increased borrowing, who didn't see this coming? Millions more will be joining the dole qeue soon, which means less GDP and yet more borrowing. Good job condems.
Am I alone in feeling relatively unaffected by our current woes?
Me and the missus both have a pay freeze this year, I suppose that's affected us (although we can't miss what we never had). Everything is ever so slightly more expensive, although not to the point where we're seriously struggling to make ends meet. I just don't feel like I personally have been greatly affected by the economic instability of recent times.
The biggest difference I've noticed over the last 2 years is that if my (unskilled) friends lose their jobs, they don't tend to bother looking for new ones. The benefits net is either too comfortable or minimum wage is too low.
Anyone else (apart from you bloody students!) feeling similar or am I being dim and overlooking a multitude of issues?
(Please note, I'm just talking about being affected personally).
Me and the missus both have a pay freeze this year, I suppose that's affected us (although we can't miss what we never had). Everything is ever so slightly more expensive, although not to the point where we're seriously struggling to make ends meet. I just don't feel like I personally have been greatly affected by the economic instability of recent times.
The biggest difference I've noticed over the last 2 years is that if my (unskilled) friends lose their jobs, they don't tend to bother looking for new ones. The benefits net is either too comfortable or minimum wage is too low.
Anyone else (apart from you bloody students!) feeling similar or am I being dim and overlooking a multitude of issues?
(Please note, I'm just talking about being affected personally).
Clay Davis
Member
A work colleague was laid off recently and I'm expected to pick up the slack as they won't be hiring another radiologist due to budget issues. Shopping is more expensive, but then I do shop in Sainsbury, might start shopping in aldi, travel is a lot more expensive.
These things effect different people in different ways, I myself am self employed and work in commercial finance providing alternatives to bank funding to small to medium companies, so for me it's not a problem at all, my gf works in marketing client side and there are plenty of jobs whenever she starts to look (marketing is most important in times like this).
I don't think it's all doom and gloom, we Brits are nothing if not a miserable bunch and will always look for a good reason to whine, the US got downgraded and are now reporting decent growth. Besides I don't think we will get a downgrade, I think Osborne budget will keep that from happening when he announces more cuts.
And people need to stop comparing us to Greece, it shows a stunning lack of awareness, we have a great record of collecting taxes, repaying debt and export more than olive oil and Bumming.
I don't think it's all doom and gloom, we Brits are nothing if not a miserable bunch and will always look for a good reason to whine, the US got downgraded and are now reporting decent growth. Besides I don't think we will get a downgrade, I think Osborne budget will keep that from happening when he announces more cuts.
And people need to stop comparing us to Greece, it shows a stunning lack of awareness, we have a great record of collecting taxes, repaying debt and export more than olive oil and Bumming.
Tea and Toast
Member
Ha ha!
I haven't really noticed a difference to be honest. I don't know if it's my eating habits but food seems the same price as it always has. It's not hard to live cheaply but I can imagine it would be horrible if I had kids. Urghhh.
I haven't really noticed a difference to be honest. I don't know if it's my eating habits but food seems the same price as it always has. It's not hard to live cheaply but I can imagine it would be horrible if I had kids. Urghhh.
Would you put your self in a comfortable wage packet?
For a lower income family, the energy bills, and food costs are up year on year by a ton. With static pay scales, for those on lower incomes, this takes up a greater proportion of the household income, and puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the house.
We really need energy bills and food costs to come down, for people on all steps of the economic ladder. Ofcom this past week, has really come down hard on on broadband bills. :/
Tough economic times, and government regulations are coming down hard on the telephony industry. The Govt really needs to sort out their priorities.
radioheadrule83
Banned
I've definitely been affected. Obviously morale wise, things are horrible at work, people have left on redundancy and more are going but the work has stayed the same. In terms of pay, pay has been frozen for a few years now for most people there, mine has actually gone up slightly because I make less than £20k, but its still gone up at a rate below inflation. Fuel is as stupid as ever and food has been ever so slightly on the rise, my landlords had put up the rent, npower and the water company have put up their bills, leisure has gone up -- the cost of a pint where I live, the cost of seeing a movie at the cinema etc. -- so life has gotten a wee bit more boring too as I've had to belt tighten. I had to take a second job late last year for a few months, and I'm considering doing it again now. I'm looking into claiming back PPI on old purchases and things like that, ebaying things more, which I'd never considered before.
I think I'd have been more comfortable if I hadn't spent the last few years living in Bath, as the cost of living there is pretty stupid. I'm in Bristol now and I'm hoping the slight drop in rent helps.
As opposed to less cuts and less borrowing?
I'm not sure its that simple my friend.
Its arguable whether or not 3-4 years of 4-5% inflation would be a good thing.
radioheadrule83
Banned
A drop is good obviously but even at the rate its dropped to - wage growth is still below inflation, which means that most of us are still feeling our spending power shrink.
That 'reality check' interview Osborne gave (currently playing on BBC) regarding the moody's story borders on being Ed Milliband-esque with his robotic repetition of the line. He manages to interject a normal human response in there, but he repeats the same thing 3-4 times.
That 'reality check' interview Osborne gave (currently playing on BBC) regarding the moody's story borders on being Ed Milliband-esque with his robotic repetition of the line. He manages to interject a normal human response in there, but he repeats the same thing 3-4 times.
Clay Davis
Member
having a competent growth plan would be good. Instead its all cut, cut, cut with a dash of the private sector will pick up the people sacked from the public sector. Hasn't happened, has it?
Hell, having any kind of working growth plan would be good.
J Tourettes
Banned
It's not affected me too much on a personal level but then again I did get a payrise of about £6k last year. If not for that I'm sure I would've noticed it a bit more as I have noticed how much the price of many things has increased.
IF this was a UK downturn alone I would agree with you, but its not. It's a worldwide problem that is vast and complex.
The previous government spent every penny they received and more during BOOM years which has left us in a situation of do we stick or twist.
Do we borrow more money and keep people in made up jobs just to keep them busy and risk the current low interest rates, or do we try to keep the interest rates low and rein in spending to drive growth that way?
There's that many curveballs coming in from Europe and the rest of the world that quite frankly anybody who tries to say they have all the answers is lying through their teeth, this is an economic downturn which is unlike all others.
Clay Davis
Member
Made up jobs? Examples?
The us seems to doing a good job with growth and job creation. Are those jobs made up o es as well?
This gov doesn't have a growth plan ir a plan to stimulate the jobs market. No cutting measures will compensate for the lack of GDP if they don't start to focus on growth and jobs. You can cut so much, soon there will be precious little left to cut, but there will still be unemployed.
Focusing solely on cuts is wrong, how can anyone in gov not see that?
The us seems to doing a good job with growth and job creation. Are those jobs made up o es as well?
This gov doesn't have a growth plan ir a plan to stimulate the jobs market. No cutting measures will compensate for the lack of GDP if they don't start to focus on growth and jobs. You can cut so much, soon there will be precious little left to cut, but there will still be unemployed.
Focusing solely on cuts is wrong, how can anyone in gov not see that?
We are pretty much following the Japanese experience...
The problem is policy is clouded by herd driven anachronisms in the capital markets. Shadow market agitants have long manipulated market sentiment and in this day and age their combined power is greater than any government.
Neo-liberal policies are currently en-vogue. This is cyclical, eventually the cry will be for deficit spending and further stimulus. It's just sad to watch people try and justify one or the other as the correct economic route. It's pure faith based almost religious ideological nonsense.
Nothing will change till governments get underlying speculation under control. We will experience this over abd over. The west is fucking itself, the Germans are not wrong about this...
zomgbbqftw
Banned
The US also spent $900bn on an economic stimulus package, and the absolute number of people in employment is about the same now as it was last year. The reason the unemployment rate has gone down is because the labour force participation rate has decreased sharply, especially in the key 16-24 demographic.
Either way there is only one surefire way to induce economic growth and that is to cut taxes across the board. Sadly Labour left behind such a massive deficit that there isn't much of an opportunity to cut taxes. The Chancellor is still doing so, but only across the edges and he is raising taxes elsewhere to pay for it.
Anyway, the government can't create jobs out of nothing, the best they can do is create the correct environment for job creation to occur in the private sector. That usually means labour market deregulation, lower employment taxes, lower corporation taxes and tax exemption for capital investment. The government has looked that the first and third, but not the second and last, which IMO are much more important to get the jobs market moving. The day the government moves to increase the capital investment allowance from the paltry £200k to something like £5bn is the day private companies start investing their hoarded cash (something like £750bn in cash or equivalents is being held by private corporations in the UK at the moment) into the economy to grow their business and increase shareholder value.
Right now there is no incentive for companies to try and grow their businesses, why bother when there is too much risk of failure and they end up paying tax on the whole lot, the government must do something about capital investment from business.
Cutting taxes is a sure fire way to spur growth no doubt but it's also not sustainable long term. It's just the other end of the stick in terms of economic doping. That policy has been in existence for decades, there's not much more to cut and once you do, the next time you have even less.
We have private sector deleveraging, which is a large factor in the rationale for the hoards of cash being kept. This may well continue for another decade. Simply put, if you follow the Japanese experience the private sector will not help you in this situation, they are not primarily interested in profit maximisation at this point.
We have private sector deleveraging, which is a large factor in the rationale for the hoards of cash being kept. This may well continue for another decade. Simply put, if you follow the Japanese experience the private sector will not help you in this situation, they are not primarily interested in profit maximisation at this point.
PJV3
Member
I wasn't comparing us to greece in absolute terms just the Growth versus cuts issue. I can see more cuts leading to less growth leading to more cuts etc. When we used austerity in the recent past there was always something to stimulate the economy, privatisation or North sea oil for example, maybe we should start selling our organs to China.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I'm not suggesting we keep a £5bn capital investment allowance for the rest of time. I would put a hard limit on it, maybe end it in March 2014. That would allow business to invest for the next couple of years on the cheap knowing that if they want to do it after 2014 it will get expensive. One hopes that after 2014 the economy will have rebalanced and recovered somewhat and the short term dearth of investment from April to October won't hit too hard.
I always hate reading articles tat talk about lending to small businesses decreasing by £xxbn and how this is a failure by the banks. Politicians and journalists have missed the point, lending has decreased because demand is way down, as you mentioned the private sector is deleveraging, it was bound to happen when our corporations were so highly geared going into 2008/9. All UK sectors are actively trying to deleverage at the moment, banking, corporations and private individuals/households. The government is the only part of the UK still taking on any debt...
No I agree with you completely, it's just that it's hard to return to the old rates once you cut, just like wages taxes are not so easy to change.
But yes, the tax issue is simply the easiest way to return to strong growth and we are fast running out of options. It would be refreshing if policy was enacted to guarantee we would raise rates and save in the good times, but the way these things work we will likely be returning to profligate policies.
I graduated into this mess, and finding a job has been a nightmare. Whilst I never expected finding my first job post-graduation would be a walk in the park, I never expected it to take 18 months to find a temporary position. A temporary fucking position! At a really, really horrible place that I didn't like one bit.
Going to that from the student life has been a nightmare. I know there's this stereotype that students have it easy, and we did compared to the working world, but I did work damn hard for my degree and not being able to carry on working has really upset me more than I thought it would. It's got so bad, I've gone ahead and done something I said I wouldn't: I'm doing a postgraduate, despite the expense. The extra qualification can't be a bad thing, and I need to do something to keep me busy and productive, because there's only so many hours a day you can spend searching for work before you've applied for everything going that's been added in the last 24-48 hours.
I'd say that, without a doubt, I'm far worse off now than I was before all of this.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
It's always easier to put taxes back up than to bring them back down. That's why VAT is 20% until the next rise to 22.5%, it will never go back down to 17.5% because the rise has made basically no difference to the wider economy and the government gets £12.5bn out of it.
As long as the government makes it clear that the allowance will go back to £200k in 2014, businesses will make use of such a large allowance and they will bring forward investment, and start new projects which require significant capital. I also think we should look at a corporate balance sheet tax to stop companies hoarding cash, bring it in at the same time as the capital allowance increase. The government needs to do something to tap into the £750bn currently sitting around doing nothing in the cash equivalents column of corporate balance sheets.
This is a huge problem for every student from the last ten years or so, and it'll only get worse. There was a time 30-40 years ago where going to university meant you were set for life, a certain managerial or higher position when you left. You were college educated, you wouldn't have to do the manual trained apprenticeship jobs that our parents and grandparents did.
Then everything got outsourced, industry has all but died and we're left with a dire and circular labour market where experience matters, but getting that experience is bottle-necked and close to impossible.
As tuition fees rise we'll see history repeating itself once more. Only the already-in-money people get educated, and in turn get hand me down ancestral jobs while us peasants suffer under the strain of no manual labour and no possibility of transcendance.
I also think careers advice at graduation in schools is terrible and completely out of touch with our economy and industry. Times have passed where a degree in anything can set you up. Only specialist skills will get you decent work.
Thanks for all the feedback chaps. Seems like I'm just outside of the 'danger zone' by the sound of it. Fucking sucks that those who are being hit the hardest are those that can least afford it. That's not how this is supposed to work.
I'd strongly advise any students to drop out, get some skank pregnant a couple of times and then enjoy your leisure-time.
I'd strongly advise any students to drop out, get some skank pregnant a couple of times and then enjoy your leisure-time.
Nicktendo86
Member
Personally I am in pretty much the same boat. No pay rise last year, same story for my other half but we were able to get a 95% mortgage for the first time last year and we are now on the property ladder in an area of East London that is being heavily developed at the moment so should have a nice investment for he future. The thing that has set us back more than anything is saving to get married next year. Everything could change if we lose our jobs of course but we are both in pretty stable companies...
PJV3
Member
I'm a 'mature' student with a wife but i am going to follow your advice anyway.
This has been solid advice for over a decade. But benefits baiting is also a dying industry these days.
well i've almost finished my degree but this sounds like good advice. im currently talking to a girl how should i proceed from here ?
Haha, I think I have too much self-respect for that. I'd rather be poor than have a sprog whose sole purpose for existing is so that mummy and daddy can collect a welfare cheque.
PJV3
Member
Stick it in and think of England.
When I think of England, I think of the Queen.
fizzelopeguss
Banned
Yeah, because living on benefits is a whole barrel of laughs. At least I'm getting interviews now, so things are looking up.
If there was demand for the jobs, and the money to pay for them they would exist simple as that.
There's no money, Labour spent every penny and nearly maxxed out the countries credit card, now the roof needs fixing and we're left trying to patch it up with plastic and masking tape, whilst the politicians argue over the thickness of the plastic and how many rolls of tape we should use.
PJV3
Member
Every response i typed sounded like Ben Elton in his 80's prime, so i'll just say go for it.
thats rape bro thats not how i roll bro
travisbickle
Member
I'll assume you don't want to splurge online about your financial details but you need to be more objective about your position.
How much do you have saved? How much are you saving per month? what percentage of your income goes on rent? necessities? treats? How much debt do you have?
PJV3
Member
Think of Scotland instead.
Best post in the thread. There are fucking WALLS of cash in UK business right now, it's getting them to spend it on expansion rather than sit on it.
I personally think that we should keep VAT at 20% because it takes me fucking ages to work out 17.5%/22.5% of something.
I think a lot of what needs to be done to help small retailers needs to happen at a council level. Rate relief, cutting down on health and safety (a cafe that I work with in my internship hasn't got a license to sell hot food, but are allowed to use camping stoves because that isn't technically "cooking", they'd be making mega-bucks if they were allowed a proper oven/hobs, but the council won't let them because of a "fire risk") and general better planning.
Councils (in general, not always) are absolutely terrible at their jobs, often completely missing the point about what businesses need to thrive. The council for the city I'm in, which I'm working with at the moment are particularly incompetent.
I think region/city elected mayors will help with this. We need one person to have accountability in cities, not a council that will blame each other and maintain the status quo.
Councils (in general, not always) are absolutely terrible at their jobs, often completely missing the point about what businesses need to thrive. The council for the city I'm in, which I'm working with at the moment are particularly incompetent.
I think region/city elected mayors will help with this. We need one person to have accountability in cities, not a council that will blame each other and maintain the status quo.
radioheadrule83
Banned
What do you all make of Baroness Warsi's "militant secularisation" comments? -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17021831
I don't like her and I don't see what her fucking point is... I come from a catholic upbringing, and while I like our little traditions and church steeples in our quaint villages - I don't give a toss, and I don't want Cameron and the like walking around saying "we are a Christian nation and should not be afraid to say so". I mean, if nothing else, what is the point of saying so?
This comment on the BBC pretty much nails it:
Also, what do you all make of professional hippy tosser, Sean Penn - wading ignorantly into the Falklands issue and backing the Argentine president?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/14/sean-penn-argentina-falkland-islands
It's like he WANTS to be his Team America charicature.
Rangers going into admin is bad news too btw.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17021831
I don't like her and I don't see what her fucking point is... I come from a catholic upbringing, and while I like our little traditions and church steeples in our quaint villages - I don't give a toss, and I don't want Cameron and the like walking around saying "we are a Christian nation and should not be afraid to say so". I mean, if nothing else, what is the point of saying so?
This comment on the BBC pretty much nails it:
Also, what do you all make of professional hippy tosser, Sean Penn - wading ignorantly into the Falklands issue and backing the Argentine president?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/14/sean-penn-argentina-falkland-islands
It's like he WANTS to be his Team America charicature.
Rangers going into admin is bad news too btw.
killer_clank
Member
ratings agencies are scumbag cunts.
is this about yesterday's outlook change or has something happened?