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[Songbird]

An interesting (lol) benefits anecdote: Today, 23 minutes ago is my signing time on JSA. It costs £4 to get the bus to the centre and back.

My appointment lasted less than 5 minutes. Gentleman looked through my notes and then said goodbye. No "how's the search" or anything. It's that easy and they don't seem to care at all about how much trouble this search is.

 

[Jezbollah]

An interesting (lol) benefits anecdote: Today, 23 minutes ago is my signing time on JSA. It costs £4 to get the bus to the centre and back.

My appointment lasted less than 5 minutes. Gentleman looked through my notes and then said goodbye. No "how's the search" or anything. It's that easy and they don't seem to care at all about how much trouble this search is.

That's similar to my experiences on the dole a couple of years ago. As long as you have notes to prove you're looking, they're satisfied.

 

[Saiyar]

Lord's reform bill is pretty much dead.

I wonder how Clegg will justify staying in the coalition now. He must be close to facing a rebellion from his own party.

 

[Speedymanic]

Have the Lib Dems had anything of theirs pass.compared to the swathes of Tory policies that have passed.

 

[Visualante2]

Was shocked by YouGov by how many oppose decriminalisation of soft drugs still. And moreso how many are in favour of cutting housing benefit for the under 25s.

Have the Lib Dems had anything of theirs pass.compared to the swathes of Tory policies that have passed.

Lots of amendments to the health (as opposed to business) side of NHS bill. Mental health in particular. Same sex marriage will be another one I suppose..

An interesting (lol) benefits anecdote: Today, 23 minutes ago is my signing time on JSA. It costs £4 to get the bus to the centre and back.

My appointment lasted less than 5 minutes. Gentleman looked through my notes and then said goodbye. No "how's the search" or anything. It's that easy and they don't seem to care at all about how much trouble this search is.

5 minutes is good. They don't even read it in mine, occasionally they don't even sign it. I know of people who just copy out from their last book and change the date. Interestingly last time I was there they said "it has been raised that we haven't been doing a good enough job" so they are checking it now, ensuring that people write 3 things a week. What quality control. While I despise the work program, the job centre has consistently proven that they are complacent about the unemployed. Wouldn't be a huge loss to see them destroyed, aside that the work programme is so keen to cut benefits from the unemployed and poor.

 

[radioheadrule83]

Lord's reform bill is pretty much dead.

I wonder how Clegg will justify staying in the coalition now. He must be close to facing a rebellion from his own party.

It'll still go ahead, this just means that they can debate it into the ground. I prefer it this way to be honest, no rushing, and you get to see some true colours on all benches. Labour have been all talk about Lords reform, I'd love for progressives in parliament to put something workable together and get it through, but I suspect people will play politics with this so nothing is done before 2015.

 

[Meadows]

I totally thought Clegg was going to resign. I don't think he should but I thought he would.

This government really needs to start investing in capital projects, just like it has done with the £500 million electrification programme from Sheffield to the south of England. More of that please.

 

[JonathanEx]

And Clegg chose Lord's Reform over the Health Bill?! Oh calamity clegg.

 

[kitch9]

Yeah but it's a straw man. Nobody denies that there are some people on the benefit system who use it to get a free lunch. The problem is that the Tories assume that it's most people on the benefit system and thus want to remove it from everybody. It's just a continuation of this absurd right-wing fantasy that the problem with the economy is that everyone's lazy and doesn't want a job and not that nobody has any money so demand has dropped.

Frankly, your post smacks of left wing fantasy though.

Oooh, the tories are out to get everyone who's not a millionaire.

 

[twobear]

Frankly, your post smacks of left wing fantasy though.

Oooh, the tories are out to get everyone who's not a millionaire.

Just about the only way to consistently explain Tory behaviour is to assume that's true, tbh.

 

[travisbickle]

Frankly, your post smacks of left wing fantasy though.

Oooh, the tories are out to get everyone who's not a millionaire.

Who received a tax reduction in the last budget?

 

[Walshicus]

And Clegg chose Lord's Reform over the Health Bill?! Oh calamity clegg.

I know it's in to bash the Lib Dems - and I'm 90% in favour of it because they *chose* to get into bed with the Tories rather than Labour - but that's not a fair assessment.

The coallition agreement called for both sides to support certain initiatives. Some were favoured by both, some by the Lib Dems and some by the Tories. The Lib Dems have just been following this agreement. Now it looks like the Tories (through their backbenchers) have shat on the agreement.

Frankly, your post smacks of left wing fantasy though.

Oooh, the tories are out to get everyone who's not a millionaire.

It's not really a fantasy is it now?

 

[JonathanEx]

I know it's in to bash the Lib Dems - and I'm 90% in favour of it because they *chose* to get into bed with the Tories rather than Labour - but that's not a fair assessment.

The coallition agreement called for both sides to support certain initiatives. Some were favoured by both, some by the Lib Dems and some by the Tories. The Lib Dems have just been following this agreement. Now it looks like the Tories (through their backbenchers) have shat on the agreement.

It was more a comment on the story in the papers this week: http://liberalconspiracy.org/2012/0...lled-the-nhs-bill-chose-lords-reform-instead/

 

[kitch9]

Who received a tax reduction in the last budget?

Who put the tax up a couple of months before an election they knew they were going to lose? I'm happy for them to lower that rate as long as they close the loopholes, the new proposed rules look to be very good, but we'll see. The 50% rate only affects the higher paid worker not the company owner who can avoid it anyway so it was a pretty punitive tax on the successful worker.

It'll be interesting to see how the French model turns out.

 

[Walshicus]

It was more a comment on the story in the papers this week: http://liberalconspiracy.org/2012/0...lled-the-nhs-bill-chose-lords-reform-instead/

Fair enough! Didn't see that...

 

[Pie and Beans]

Cheers Clegg! Still managing to find ways to fuck us this late in the day. Not entirely show how the Liberal Democrat political party even exists anymore since it obviously doesnt have its own political agenda.

 

[Dambrosi]

It was more a comment on the story in the papers this week: http://liberalconspiracy.org/2012/07...eform-instead/

"The Conservatives thought Mr Clegg would aim high, perhaps asking them to drop the troubled Health and Social Care Bill, a recommendation they would have accepted readily."

This makes me angrier than it should. Double nailbat fuck you, Clegg.

 

[War Peaceman]

So does anyone think that the G4S travesties, the Border Agency stupidity and the continued unravelling of Banking's reputation will prompt any rethink on this government's privatisation drive?

How the bloody hell does Group 4 continue to get government work, particularly from Conservative administrations?

 

[Jackpot]

So does anyone think that the G4S travesties, the Border Agency stupidity and the continued unravelling of Banking's reputation will prompt any rethink on this government's privatisation drive?

How the bloody hell does Group 4 continue to get government work, particularly from Conservative administrations?

Not really, not when there's money to be made and favours to be had. G4S's performance is very common with contractors. Just look at the PFI hospitals or any IT project for a gov dept ever. Only difference is this is getting slightly more scrutiny due to it being for the Olympics, rather than internal use or a service the public already expect to be shit.

 

[War Peaceman]

Well, exactly. It just highlights how rigid and intellectually stunted the people in charge are, unfortunately.

But G4S, why oh why use them? The Conservative party should be avoiding them at all costs.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Well, exactly. It just highlights how rigid and intellectually stunted the people in charge are, unfortunately.

But G4S, why oh why use them? The Conservative party should be avoiding them at all costs.

It wasn't the Conservative party that awarded the initial contract to Group 4. I don't think their opinion of the company will have improved over the last few days so it is probably the last government contract that G4 will get at least until 2015. I just hope that they are barred for at least 10 years until they clean up their act.

I was talking about it earlier today and a lot of us thought that the government should have got the military to do it anyway, and had it as an official volunteering programme within the forces so that they could choose to volunteer for the games like other public service workers. They would easily have got 7-10k volunteers from 110k military personnel. All that would be left is for their transport, bed and board to be paid for, surely less than the £57m figure attached to the G4 contract.

It would have been a nice way to integrate our forces into the games I think.

 

[Conor 419]

Absolute disaster for the Conservative party, a complete and utter scandal. Shameless.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

It wasn't the Conservative party that awarded the initial contract to Group 4. I don't think their opinion of the company will have improved over the last few days so it is probably the last government contract that G4 will get at least until 2015. I just hope that they are barred for at least 10 years until they clean up their act.

No, it was John Reid, wasn't it? And any idea what he might have to do with G4S nowadays...

 

[War Peaceman]

It wasn't the Conservative party that awarded the initial contract to Group 4. I don't think their opinion of the company will have improved over the last few days so it is probably the last government contract that G4 will get at least until 2015. I just hope that they are barred for at least 10 years until they clean up their act.

Oh absolutely, it was set up by Labour but the Conservatives should have managed it better, particularly given their history with the company.

 

[Jackpot]

Irony is that G4S's chairman's hero is Margaret Thatcher.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

No, it was John Reid, wasn't it? And any idea what he might have to do with G4S nowadays...

I seem to remember it being John Reid but I avoided saying it because assorted lefties would come out and attack me as being a Tory shill. I am certain that it wasn't this government that awarded the contract to G4. Labour left behind a large number of land-mines when they left government, what a bunch of wankers.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I seem to remember it being John Reid but I avoided saying it because assorted lefties would come out and attack me as being a Tory shill. I am certain that it wasn't this government that awarded the contract to G4. Labour left behind a large number of land-mines when they left government, what a bunch of wankers.

They did indeed. The Tories have been - in my opinion - a disaster in many ways, but they inherited some really shitty messes from Labour.

Oh, and the point you didn't pick up on - Baron Reid of Cardowan (as the bulldog-faced bruiser is styled now) is, as far as I know, a director for G4S.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Oh absolutely, it was set up by Labour but the Conservatives should have managed it better, particularly given their history with the company.

They should have, but May is incompetent and couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. What's worse is that some idiots are touting her as a possible replacement for Osborne if Dave decides to wield a mighty axe, Hammond is by far the best politician in the Cabinet, the Tories need to clone him.

They did indeed. The Tories have been - in my opinion - a disaster in many ways, but they inherited some really shitty messes from Labour.

Oh, and the point you didn't pick up on - Baron Reid of Cardowan (as the bulldog-faced bruiser is styled now) is, as far as I know, a director for G4S.

I left it open, again to avoid being attacked by lefties. He is a non-executive director afaik, but amazingly he got that position after leaving the Cabinet just after awarding them a nicely padded government contract.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I left it open, again to avoid being attacked by lefties. He is a non-executive director afaik, but amazingly he got that position after leaving the Cabinet just after awarding them a nicely padded government contract.

Shame you feel the need to do that. I've only really followed your posts here and in the GAME collapse/Brera meltdown thread but you've always come across as willing to call out people on all sides, and not play partisan games. Doesn't mean I've always agreed with your positions, but they seem honestly-held and well-considered.

re: Reid. Yes, it's remarkable how these coincidences come about, isn't it?

 

[Joel Was Right]

Rumours on twitter that the now banned BBC documentary into the riots contained footage most haven't seen yet. Some have suggested they have tapes of police abuse, no confirmation on that though. It is curious though as it was meant to be shown last night but the court order arrived hours before it went on air

 

[Meadows]

Unemployment fell again!

 

[War Peaceman]

Excellent, more infrastructure spending!

Also, John Reid and a lot of the New Labour lot were/are total scumbags. That said, Ed Milliband seems to be pulling together quite a nice team, even if he hasn't banished enough of the New Labour gang.

 

[SteveWD40]

Shame you feel the need to do that. I've only really followed your posts here and in the GAME collapse/Brera meltdown thread but you've always come across as willing to call out people on all sides, and not play partisan games. Doesn't mean I've always agreed with your positions, but they seem honestly-held and well-considered.

re: Reid. Yes, it's remarkable how these coincidences come about, isn't it?

Certain people on here can't get over their partisan "us and them" shtick, he has indeed been pretty open to all arguments but his bank were wrong about economic data and therefore some people were dancing around a wicker man with glee that they got to be right about decreasing opportunities for the public because it made the Torys look bad.

NeoGaf.

 

[Jackpot]

Certain people on here can't get over their partisan "us and them" shtick, he has indeed been pretty open to all arguments but his bank were wrong about economic data and therefore some people were dancing around a wicker man with glee that they got to be right about decreasing opportunities for the public because it made the Torys look bad.

NeoGaf.

Actually it was everytime he claimed "insider knowledge" the opposite would occur. And then there was this doozy he posted:

Something someone wrote about why Tories are turning to UKIP:

British Tory eurosceptics are like the sexually frustrated wife of a pathetically impotent, homosexual husband - the europhile Tory leadership.

It really doesn't take much to make the Frustrated Sceptic Mrs Tory happy, given her history of sexual starvation. Five seconds of Brussels-bashing foreplay, and the semi-erection of a sort-of Veto left her in climactic happiness for months. The palpitations only subsided this Spring.

Yet Cameron and his crew are so repulsively epicene, so mincing and unmanly, they can't even get it up twice a year, thereby fulfilling their connubial duties, so as to keep the Tory marriage content.

Now the sad and disappointed wife realises that she has been bitterly betrayed. That dashing husband was gay all along, as everyone warned her. And so her eyes stray to that roguish, older, rather seedy chap in the blazer.... At least HE is obviously hetero.

His explanation of financial terms is great, but his political views are cartoonish. Sorry we don't blindly accept everything he says.

 

[Pie and Beans]

zomgwtfbbq is a lot more... equal opportunities for hatred now than he was around the election and beginning of this government. Probably because he was putting way too much stock into his firm's predictions than the reality the rest of the country faced.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Good news on unemployment figures.

185k jobs created for the quarter, 61k associated with the Olympics, much of that will be temporary, but 131k permanent jobs created as well. A weird rise in the claimant count, but the Treasury assure us that it is down to technical changes in how people count, the total number of people claiming any kind of out of work benefit has decreased, and they want to start publishing this statistic in a more timely fashion (the latest we can see is November 2011 which is well out of date).

Amazingly when we last had around this number of people in employment, 29.354m, the unemployment rate was 5.7% compared to 8.1% today. The reason for this is increased labour force participation and later retirement because of high inflation. By the end of this year the total number of people employed in Britain will be at its highest ever rate, approaching 30m, but the unemployment rate will still be above 7.5%. For a more direct comparison we can look at the YoY figures, the total number of people in employment has increased by 85k, but the unemployment rate was 7.7% for the same period last year, with fewer people employed.

The Bank will be happy with the small increase in average earnings as inflation has begun to ease and it will mean people have some kind of disposable income again (more likely they will pay down debt, but we should try to be positive).

All in all, a decent set of figures, some cause for optimism, however we shouldn't get ahead of our selves like June 2010 and say the downturn is over. It isn't. The government need to push for more labour market reforms and more infrastructure spending, they have taken our advice on underwriting a new programme of spending, but the details are sparse and it looks like it has been designed by politicians rather than investors which means it will probably fail. What I would like to see is a further £20bn per year cut out of the current budget and spent on infrastructure, almost all of the savings the government have made in spending has come from the net investment column while current spending has increased at a record pace. That needs to reverse, but still, positive figures, no doubt. Hopefully we will be looking back in a couple of years and mark this as a turning point. I doubt it, but who knows...

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Excellent, more infrastructure spending!

Also, John Reid and a lot of the New Labour lot were/are total scumbags. That said, Ed Milliband seems to be pulling together quite a nice team, even if he hasn't banished enough of the New Labour gang.

Ed balls, Yvette Cooper, Dougie Alexander, Andy Burnham and Chuka Umunna is not what I would consider a good team.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Forget the shitty headline, but this is good news:

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2012/07/18/coalition-victory-eu-no-longer-the-uk-s-main-export-market

"Compared with last year, the last three months saw exports to the EU down by 7.3%, while exports to non-EU countries rose by 13.2%, allowing non-EU exports to exceed EU exports by 1.3%."

"A recent CEBR study for insurers the RSA found British trade to Asia is expected to rise by 30% in the next five years, while it will increase by 40% to Latin America and 60% to Africa."

The EU is becoming less and less important for us as a nation, it is a bloc stuck in the 70s in terms of how it thinks and acts. Over the next five years the case for leaving will become undeniable as they move from "largest trading partner" to "bloc dragging down our performance".

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Ed balls, Yvette Cooper, Dougie Alexander, Andy Burnham and Chuka Umunna is not what I would consider a good team.

Don't dis wee Dougie! He is probably the best of a bad bunch, it's a shame he is Scottish otherwise he would have made a decent leader for Labour in a post-Brown era. I really can't stand that Chuka idiot, such a smarmy git.

 

[SteveWD40]

His explanation of financial terms is great, but his political views are cartoonish. Sorry we don't blindly accept everything he says.

I wasn't asking you to, but by all means put words in mouth. I was merely referencing people calling him out over and over when economic figures were worse than thought, people who only seem to post when there is negative news they can spin to suit their agenda of "being right on the internet".

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Don't dis wee Dougie! He is probably the best of a bad bunch, it's a shame he is Scottish otherwise he would have made a decent leader for Labour in a post-Brown era. I really can't stand that Chuka idiot, such a smarmy git.

Yeah, I remember watching Chuka on Question Time opposite Ken Clarke a few months ago, and he came off as really arrogant, and very obviously did not like it whenever the audience agreed with Ken.

As for Dougie whenever I think of him I think of the Election that never was, although I suspect we'll never know precisely how much of that debacle was his fault thanks to the endless internecine briefing that followed.

None of the Labour MP's I like - Alan Johnson, Alaistair Darling, David Milliband - are even in front line politics anymore, and all of the big hitters from the past like John Reid who I didn't like but at least grudgingly respected are around. The shadow cabinet is full of second class brains.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

Forget the shitty headline, but this is good news:

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2012/07/18/coalition-victory-eu-no-longer-the-uk-s-main-export-market

"Compared with last year, the last three months saw exports to the EU down by 7.3%, while exports to non-EU countries rose by 13.2%, allowing non-EU exports to exceed EU exports by 1.3%."

"A recent CEBR study for insurers the RSA found British trade to Asia is expected to rise by 30% in the next five years, while it will increase by 40% to Latin America and 60% to Africa."

The EU is becoming less and less important for us as a nation, it is a bloc stuck in the 70s in terms of how it thinks and acts. Over the next five years the case for leaving will become undeniable as they move from "largest trading partner" to "bloc dragging down our performance".

is there a breakdown on what we're trading mate?

 

[War Peaceman]

Ed balls, Yvette Cooper, Dougie Alexander, Andy Burnham and Chuka Umunna is not what I would consider a good team.

Many of them come across poorly - Ed Balls is particularly slimy, Chuka pompous for example - but Ed Balls is intellectually respected (if not always agreed with) even by Telegraph columnists.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

is there a breakdown on what we're trading mate?

Overseas exports: https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OTS Releases/otschap_tots_exp_1205.xls

EU exports: https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OTS Releases/otschap_eutots_dis_1205.xls

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Pages/Home.aspx

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Yeah, I remember watching Chuka on Question Time opposite Ken Clarke a few months ago, and he came off as really arrogant, and very obviously did not like it whenever the audience agreed with Ken.

As for Dougie whenever I think of him I think of the Election that never was, although I suspect we'll never know precisely how much of that debacle was his fault thanks to the endless internecine briefing that followed.

None of the Labour MP's I like - Alan Johnson, Alaistair Darling, David Milliband - are even in front line politics anymore, and all of the big hitters from the past like John Reid who I didn't like but at least grudgingly respected are around. The shadow cabinet is full of second class brains.

It's not Dougie's fault that Gordon bottled it. I think Labour would have lost that election anyway, it would probably have ended with a Con majority as Dave was at the peak of his career in terms of likeability back then, he seemed fresh and new while Gordon was a busted flush. The extra couple of years really hurt Dave as his veneer wore off and it is why we have a coalition government at the moment. Internal polling for the Cons was indicating to a coalition from around December 2009, while in September 2007 it was pointing to a large Tory majority. The change was Dave's personal polling, he went from around +30 to around +10 with the public.

As for Darling, I don't think he will ever work in a Cabinet for another Brownite after his last experience. Who do you think the forces of Hell were? I have a lot of respect for Darling and David Miliband, but they had the opportunity to stand up to the madman and depose him a number of times in 2009 to trigger an election, but failed.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Many of them come across poorly - Ed Balls is particularly slimy, Chuka pompous for example - but Ed Balls is intellectually respected (if not always agreed with) even by Telegraph columnists.

My biggest problem with ed balls is the same one I have with his mentor gordon brown.

As an MP your priorities should really be country, party, self. But with balls & brown it seems to be the other way round. They set up incredibly damaging ppi's just so they could keep to their "golden rule" and look good in parliment. They set up the 10p tax rate garbage that hurt the poorest just so they could make osbourne look stupid at the despatch box for five minutes. Balls reputedly ran a parallel treasury operation while Alastair Darling was trying to get us out of a hole.

Added to that he's so personally obnoxious he almost lost a safe labour seat just due to how much his own constituants despise him.

As for Darling, I don't think he will ever work in a Cabinet for another Brownite after his last experience. Who do you think the forces of Hell were? I have a lot of respect for Darling and David Miliband, but they had the opportunity to stand up to the madman and depose him a number of times in 2009 to trigger an election, but failed.

Yeah I agree. Purnell jumped but no-one followed him. The landscape could have been so different today if they had.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

nice one, cheers mate

 

[Joel Was Right]

I'm struggling to get any signal in London here on Three and T-Mobile

 

[twobear]

Who put the tax up a couple of months before an election they knew they were going to lose? I'm happy for them to lower that rate as long as they close the loopholes, the new proposed rules look to be very good, but we'll see. The 50% rate only affects the higher paid worker not the company owner who can avoid it anyway so it was a pretty punitive tax on the successful worker.

It'll be interesting to see how the French model turns out.

I do have a problem with them lowering the rate, because the historical evidence is that low tax rates are bad for the economy and bad for society.

 

[twobear]

Interesting article:

http://notthetreasuryview.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/the-imf-explodes-myth-of-fiscal.html

This couldn't be clearer. It is saying two things. First, the reason long-term gilt yields are low in the UK (and similarly in virtually every other "advanced economy with monetary independence") is weak growth, not "confidence" or "credibility". "Bond yields are driven more by growth expectations." That is, yields are low not because of economic confidence but because of its exact opposite. This is precisely what I and others (Simon Wren-Lewis here, and of course Paul Krugman in the US) have long been arguing. Indeed, the specific evidence the IMF cites - that yields have fallen when stock markets have fallen - is precisely that, in the UK, I first pointed here a year ago.

Second, that there is no reason to believe that slowing fiscal consolidation would "trigger an adverse market reaction". In other words, when the Chancellor said that "these risks [of slowing consolidation] are very real, not imaginary", he was, once again, indulging in evidence-free speculation, not serious analysis. Indeed, the Fund accurately points out that the main reason yields might rise (slightly, not precipitiously) if fiscal policy were to be loosened would be because of "expectations of higher near-term growth". As I pointed out here, this would be good news.

I wonder if Osborne will listen to this evidence.