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[Guerrillas in the Mist]

UK recession deepens after 0.7% fall in GDP

Goddamnit, it's like there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[killer_clank]

UK recession deepens after 0.7% fall in GDP

Goddamnit, it's like there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[radioheadrule83]

Interesting article:

http://notthetreasuryview.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/the-imf-explodes-myth-of-fiscal.html

I wonder if Osborne will listen to this evidence.

It's about time he did. There was a guy on BBC just now asking for him to cut VAT on building work or something - instead of anything like that this week we've had one government minister effectively labelling hard working labourers in a tough climate tax dodgers equivalent to the biggest tax avoiders. The news is starting to get deafening -- surely he can soften his stance a little?

Or will he stubbornly sit by and hope people start giving a shit about the Olympics so the next quarter is good?

 

[Speedymanic]

UK recession deepens after 0.7% fall in GDP

Goddamnit, it's like there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

PLAN A, PLAN A, PLAN A, PLAN A, etc, etc, etc.

Will be interesting to see what the Gov does now. I mean, they have to accept their plan hasn't work and it's time to try something else, right? How long can they can continue to blame stuff like the weather or public holidays? I'm sure they play a part, but not to the extent where they cause a recession or deepen one.

 

[Meadows]

Growth figures are mattering less and less to me.

Our exports are increasing, unemployment is falling. Sorting out the wealth divide in an aspirational, rather than punitive way is the most important goal for us as a country.

 

[Speedymanic]

Growth figures are mattering less and less to me.

Our exports are increasing, unemployment is falling. Sorting out the wealth divide in an aspirational, rather than punitive way is the most important goal for us as a country.

Isn't long term unemployment increasing?

Also, pretty sure I remember reading that unemployment for women was increasing at a very fast rate, can't find the article now, just happened across it on my RSS feeds one day.

If anything, I'd say those employment figures are misleading. More people entering into part jobs that probably don't pay enough to support them/their families, etc isn't indicative of an improving employment environment.

And then there's the ever deepening north south divide...

 

[Walshicus]

PLAN A, PLAN A, PLAN A, PLAN A, etc, etc, etc.

Will be interesting to see what the Gov does now. I mean, they have to accept their plan hasn't work and it's time to try something else, right? How long can they can continue to blame stuff like the weather or public holidays? I'm sure they play a part, but not to the extent where they cause a recession or deepen one.

"What'll we blame it on this time Brain?"
"Why, the same thing we blame every day..."

 

[Kavanagh]

I know we're supposed to be in age of austerity but it's actually been a bit of a golden age for me these past few years. Payrise after payrise, workload seems to be getting less and less and even if I was to be made redundant I'd get a nice payout (not huge about £15k or so) that would help me start my own business.

Fell pretty guilty about it sometimes, especially for hoping for redundancy.

 

[twobear]

UK recession deepens after 0.7% fall in GDP

Goddamnit, it's like there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

Who could have seen this coming?

Certainly nobody imagined austerity wouldn't work.

Sorting out the wealth divide in an aspirational, rather than punitive way is the most important goal for us as a country.

I don't know what you mean by this, because it's incredibly vague, but wealth distribution isn't just about 'fairness'. It has serious, measurable ramifications for society. "The rich can be as rich as they like as long as the poor are not in poverty" is a very damaging stance, for instance.

 

[SteveWD40]

Isn't long term unemployment increasing?

Also, pretty sure I remember reading that unemployment for women was increasing at a very fast rate, can't find the article now, just happened across it on my RSS feeds one day.

If anything, I'd say those employment figures are misleading. More people entering into part jobs that probably don't pay enough to support them/their families, etc isn't indicative of an improving employment environment.

And then there's the ever deepening north south divide...

Pretty much spot on, people are getting work but not meaningful work that supports a family.

What we need is a stable middle class, which means tech and service jobs (and manufacturing). The govt should look into expanding their manufacturing advisory scheme grants and prop up SME's in every way they can.

The myth that the super rich / large PLC's are the job creators is something Osbourne needs to get away from, they are brown nosing "big business" to come to the UK but at what cost?

 

[twobear]

Interesting (and depressing) stories from the Torygraph and Grauniad.

David Cameron: no end in sight for austerity

He indicates that the programme of spending cuts, initially planned to take five years, is now likely to last for the entire decade.

Mr Cameron insists that he still wants to cut tax but that any reductions would have to be funded by even greater public spending reductions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...id-Cameron-no-end-in-sight-for-austerity.html

As though the collapse of the country's economy were not enough, the constant moving of goalposts by the Tories is surely a sign that their economic policies are a failure.

And a follow-up piece by the Graun:

Ten years of austerity? Only the British would meet that with barely a murmur

Imagine living in a country where the prime minister could announce one morning that his drastic spending cuts would now roll on for twice as long and hear barely a murmur of protest. Despite the government ranking as more unpopular than at any time since taking power. Despite the economy being mired in a double-dip recession, and despite battalions of economists urging opposite policies. What kind of broken-backed nation would that be? That would be Britain as of last Thursday.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/23/10-years-austerity-without-murmur?intcmp=239

It's an interesting problem. Why hasn't there been strong public condemnation of the Tories' failed policies? Have they really just done such a good job hoodwinking people into believing that their policies are a success, or necessary?

 

[Speedymanic]

Pretty much spot on, people are getting work but not meaningful work that supports a family.

What we need is a stable middle class, which means tech and service jobs (and manufacturing). The govt should look into expanding their manufacturing advisory scheme grants and prop up SME's in every way they can.

The myth that the super rich / large PLC's are the job creators is something Osbourne needs to get away from, they are brown nosing "big business" to come to the UK but at what cost?

Agree 100%. Can't seem them doing it though, hasn't this news been met with a statement stating they are disappointed? Time was news like this would result in reshuffles or news of a new plan/strategy...instead they come out with austerity to last longer. They can't even accept their entire plan is flawed/isn't working. At least Labour accepted when they were wrong and actually tried to do something about it....this gov though.

It's an interesting problem. Why hasn't there been strong public condemnation of the Tories' failed policies? Have they really just done such a good job hoodwinking people into believing that their policies are a success, or necessary?

Private vs public sector. It's paying dividends for them. Private sector hates public for the benefits, etc and the public sector is constantly under fire with claims of you've got it better than everyone, etc if they dare speak out or go on strike, etc.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Its a very lucky year situation where the run on from the Queen's Jubilee to the Olympics are making the everyman think Britain is fine and we're muddling through. Gank both those appeasing events away from next years calendar or the run up to Christmas, and maybe things will start to hit home.

The recession deepening is just absolutely ridiculous. I've also seen so many cooked unemployment books in my time that no matter what government, Labour or Tory, I'll never fully trust any "good news" on that front either.

 

[SteveWD40]

It's an interesting problem. Why hasn't there been strong public condemnation of the Tories' failed policies? Have they really just done such a good job hoodwinking people into believing that their policies are a success, or necessary?

They timed it well, people are too busy with chest thumping nationlism and pretending to care about sports they only watch every 4 years.

Bury bad news deep enough and peoples apathy will do the rest.

When it will matter is at the next general, if they are still singing that song all Labour need to do is appoint a leader that doesn't evoke a 6th former having a tantrum and promise to shift to a growth based economy rather than the current "fuck it, the rich are still rich we are doing great!" one and they will landlisde the Torys so deep it will take them 50 years to dig their way out.

 

[Delusibeta]

They timed it well, people are too busy with chest thumping nationlism and pretending to care about sports they only watch every 4 years.

Bury bad news deep enough and peoples apathy will do the rest.

When it will matter is at the next general, if they are still singing that song all Labour need to do is appoint a leader that doesn't evoke a 6th former having a tantrum and promise to shift to a growth based economy rather than the current "fuck it, the rich are still rich we are doing great!" one and they will landlisde the Torys so deep it will take them 50 years to dig their way out.

I'd wager Labour will then proceed to carry on austerity for most of thouse fifty years.

 

[Kavanagh]

I'd wager Labour will then proceed to carry on austerity for most of thouse fifty years.

Unlikely.

 

[Delusibeta]

Unlikely.

I'll freely admit that I'm deeply cynical and see Labour as Tories who prefer the colour red rather than the colour blue, hence my post. And I stand by it: I don't see them reversing austerity when they get into power.

 

[Pie and Beans]

I'll freely admit that I'm deeply cynical and see Labour as Tories who prefer the colour red rather than the colour blue, hence my post. And I stand by it: I don't see them reversing austerity when they get into power.

I think it'd be a bit unfair to expect them to reverse it, but I certainly wouldnt expect them to continue any heartfelt dedication to it like Osbournes kamikaze ambition. Labour saw us out of recession last time, Tories have plunged us back in. You wouldnt think it by the public's apathy though.

 

[Meadows]

I don't know what you mean by this, because it's incredibly vague, but wealth distribution isn't just about 'fairness'. It has serious, measurable ramifications for society. "The rich can be as rich as they like as long as the poor are not in poverty" is a very damaging stance, for instance.

I don't know what you mean by what you just said either, your post is poorly written.

Anyway, I meant that we have a problem of the rich being too rich and the poor being too poor. Instead of punishing people that make a success out of themselves by over-burdening them with taxes (a la 85% top tax rates and so on), we should spend money strategically through bond sales (i.e. borrowing) and reductions in needless areas (defence).

The education system needs a complete revision from start to finish, but not in the way that Gove would want...

 

[twobear]

I don't what you mean by what you just said either, your post is poorly written.

Anyway, I meant that we have a problem of the rich being too rich and the poor being too poor. Instead of punishing people that make a success out of themselves by over-burdening them with taxes (a la 85% top tax rates and so on), we should spend money strategically through bond sales (i.e. borrowing) and reductions in needless areas (defence).

I disagree with this entirely. High marginal tax rates have a pretty good historical record.

I think that we have to break this myth that the ultra rich have 'made success out of themselves'. Of course they have put in work, nobody denies that, but so much of their success is contingent on living in a particular kind of society. A society that rewards particular skills, for instance.

 

[Kavanagh]

I disagree with this entirely. High marginal tax rates have a pretty good historical record.

I think that we have to break this myth that the ultra rich have 'made success out of themselves'. Of course they have put in work, nobody denies that, but so much of their success is contingent on living in a particular kind of society. A society that rewards particular skills, for instance.

 

[Jezbollah]

Labour saw us out of recession last time, Tories have plunged us back in. You wouldnt think it by the public's apathy though.

You have to wonder how we would be faring without the Eurozone crisis, and what would have happened with that going on a few years before the second of the double dips..

 

[SteveWD40]

I think it'd be a bit unfair to expect them to reverse it, but I certainly wouldnt expect them to continue any heartfelt dedication to it like Osbournes kamikaze ambition. Labour saw us out of recession last time, Tories have plunged us back in. You wouldnt think it by the public's apathy though.

Yup, they won't just scrap cuts but they won't pursue them with willfull abandon either, they have some lame ducks but Labours better MP's always struck me as far more grounded.

As for the public apathy, well Labours PR is still fucking godawfull, people still believe the lie that Brown was to blame for everything and Ed Milliband is possibly the worst leader in recent memory (I am including leaders of the boy scouts, tin pot dictators and my mates cat).

Friend of mine met him once, he managed to pull off being both odiously arrogant and immensely ignorant at the same time.

 

[Psychotext]

That "hating Milliband" thing is a common theme with people I talk to. They'll never win an election outright with him in charge.

 

[Meadows]

I think his recent "success" has gone to his head. He's been walking/talking with this ludicrous swagger, bouyed by a +4% recognition rating among the public and a few loving Guardian blogs.

He's shit. His shadow cabinet has more holes than St Andrew's, due in part to the wrong "oldies" sticking around (e.g. Alan Johnson gone, Harriet Harman still shitting up the 6 o'clock news with her bullshit).

Chuka Umunna has a great potential but needs to work on his public persona. He takes normal political questions really personally and comes across as way too sensitive.

Labour need to be more positive, less Tory bashing and more hopeful messages about what a Labour UK will look like between 2015-2020.

 

[SteveWD40]

Labour need to be more positive, less Tory bashing and more hopeful messages about what a Labour UK will look like between 2015-2020.

Love him or hate him, this is exactly what Blair has been saying for a while now. Labour struggled when they were seen as anti business, far left and negative, they need to be centralist.

The politics of negativity / fear didn't work for Cammo (at least to get a majority) so go the positive route, you just need some charisma...

 

[Kavanagh]

Love him or hate him, this is exactly what Blair has been saying for a while now. Labour struggled when they were seen as anti business, far left and negative, they need to be centralist.

The politics of negativity / fear didn't work for Cammo (at least to get a majority) so go the positive route, you just need some charisma...

'Just', if only it was that easy...

 

[SteveWD40]

True, looking for humans amongst politicians is like looking nailing sick to a wall.

 

[Meadows]

True, looking for humans amongst politicians is like looking nailing sick to a wall.

There's nothing inherently wrong about politicians, a lot of the more established MPs that represent their constituencies rather than get sucked into Westminster are good people. I've lived 3 constituencies over the past 2 years (Aberconwy, York Outer, York Central) and all of my MPs are good people who truly look out for the needs of their constituents (1 Labour, 2 Conservative).

Those that spend their time in Westminster get sucked into the black hole that engulfs the place. People become statistics. Good policy decisions become "unsalable to the public", the very same public which they never meet or talk to. Yes they may take part in surgeries but the kind of people that go to those aren't representative of the general public. They're older, grumpier, more politically involved and better educated than most of the public. Or they complain about "hoodies".

Day by day they lose their humanity. Spin doctors pull them from one direction to the other. Political discussions start to revolve around "talking points" or "30 second soundbites for 6 o'clock". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlTggc0uBA8

I don't know how to combat this, but the current system of politikking in the coridoors of Whitehall/Westminster only serves to harm the country in the long term. There aren't any people in Westminster. Just journalists, tourists, politicians and spin doctors.

 

[SteveWD40]

There's nothing inherently wrong about politicians, a lot of the more established MPs that represent their constituencies rather than get sucked into Westminster are good people. I've lived 3 constituencies over the past 2 years (Aberconwy, York Outer, York Central) and all of my MPs are good people who truly look out for the needs of their constituents (1 Labour, 2 Conservative).

Those that spend their time in Westminster get sucked into the black hole that engulfs the place. People become statistics. Good policy decisions become "unsalable to the public", the very same public which they never meet or talk to. Yes they may take part in surgeries but the kind of people that go to those aren't representative of the general public. They're older, grumpier, more politically involved and better educated than most of the public. Or they complain about "hoodies".

Day by day they lose their humanity. Spin doctors pull them from one direction to the other. Political discussions start to revolve around "talking points" or "30 second soundbites for 6 o'clock". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlTggc0uBA8

I don't know how to combat this, but the current system of politikking in the coridoors of Whitehall/Westminster only serves to harm the country in the long term. There aren't any people in Westminster. Just journalists, tourists, politicians and spin doctors.

Very well put good fellow.

 

[Songbird]

This isn't gonna end, is it?

 

[SteveWD40]

This isn't gonna end, is it?

What? this thread? UK politics? the recession?

If you mean the latter then yes, of course it will, they always do, it's not especially deep and we didn't have a huge fall in growth as there wasn't much to begin with.

Will probably pick up after Q3, back to the amazing 0.2% growth.

I imagine the economy will improve over time in spite of the govt, but not to 2005 levels for a long time. I think we need to be more realistic about growth and should avoid bubbles / booms as they only lead one way.

 

[Songbird]

What? this thread? UK politics? the recession?

The recession, yes! Sorry I wasn't clearer.

 

[Speedymanic]

What? this thread? UK politics? the recession?

If you mean the latter then yes, of course it will, they always do, it's not especially deep and we didn't have a huge fall in growth as there wasn't much to begin with.

Will probably pick up after Q3, back to the amazing 0.2% growth.

I imagine the economy will improve over time in spite of the govt, but not to 2005 levels for a long time. I think we need to be more realistic about growth and should avoid bubbles / booms as they only lead one way.

Current Q won't be the one to watch, it will be Q4 and onwards as those will be more in line with how the economy is doing.

Current Q is guaranteed to see a bump (although how much or small of a bump is yet to be seen) due to the Olympics and I fear, if it's a large bump that some will use as justification for even more cuts or not changing course.

 

[DECK'ARD]

That "hating Milliband" thing is a common theme with people I talk to. They'll never win an election outright with him in charge.

He's shit.

On a basic level you need to be a good public speaker, have some charisma, and be believable. He fails right there.

And where Labour is concerned you needed someone detached from the old guard, or at least someone who people believed would shake it up and give the party a new direction. Ed's a caretaker leader, his leadership was bought, he's like Michael Howard for the Tories.

He's not the one who will rebuild Labour, just someone who thinks the unpopularity of the other party will be enough. The UK needs a strong opposition at the moment, Labour under Ed is anything but that.

 

[SteveWD40]

Current Q won't be the one to watch, it will be Q4 and onwards as those will be more in line with how the economy is doing.

Current Q is guaranteed to see a bump (although how much or small of a bump is yet to be seen) due to the Olympics and I fear, if it's a large bump that some will use as justification for even more cuts or not changing course.

Yeah you are right, I forgot how far into the year we were.

Yes, it will bump a long, to be fair they said that as far back as 2009, the "recovery" would be bumpy and that was before the Euro shitfit.

 

[radioheadrule83]

He's not the one who will rebuild Labour, just someone who thinks the unpopularity of the other party will be enough. The UK needs a strong opposition at the moment, Labour under Ed is anything but that.

To be honest, Cameron and Clegg weren't that great a proposition to voters, its just that Brown was so uniformly shat upon by the press and hated by his detractors, in a climate that was just getting worse and worse - basically, the "unpopularity of the other party" WAS enough. 2015 is 3 years away, it'll be interesting to revisit this discussion then.

 

[kitch9]

I think it'd be a bit unfair to expect them to reverse it, but I certainly wouldnt expect them to continue any heartfelt dedication to it like Osbournes kamikaze ambition. Labour saw us out of recession last time, Tories have plunged us back in. You wouldnt think it by the public's apathy though.

Lol, the crash happened under Labours watch, and they had no idea it was coming as they were busy spending every penny they could find and borrow when it hit.

Your post made me actually cringe.

 

[SteveWD40]

Lol, the crash happened under Labours watch, and they had no idea it was coming as they were busy spending every penny they could find and borrow when it hit.

Your post made me actually cringe.

Unlike the rest of the world and the tories who knew right?

 

[Meadows]

On an aside, there's a big uproar in Taiwan at the moment because their flag was taken down from the "street of flags" thing they're doing in London at the moment:

this is pretty fucking terrible, they didn't even replace it with the Chinese Taipei flag, just left it. How are Taiwanese people meant to feel fucking welcome in this country when they're treated like this. It isn't fucking on.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Why was it taken down in the first place?

 

[Meadows]

Why was it taken down in the first place?

no official word, but you'd imagine China would have had something to do with it...

 

[Psychotext]

That's pretty fucking shitty.

 

[DECK'ARD]

To be honest, Cameron and Clegg weren't that great a proposition to voters, its just that Brown was so uniformly shat upon by the press and hated by his detractors, in a climate that was just getting worse and worse - basically, the "unpopularity of the other party" WAS enough. 2015 is 3 years away, it'll be interesting to revisit this discussion then.

Yeah, the message wasn't good enough or the Tories would have had a majority. But opinion of politicians in general was in the shitter, so was the economy, and no party could honestly play the vote for us and everything will be ok card.

Brown carried too much baggage of New Labour, despite trying to set himself apart from that. He was just a terrible choice to take over, and often appeared a bit deluded about things. He didn't inspire trust, at a time when people wanted it. People didn't really trust Cameron either, but fell back on them being more trustworthy with the economy and time for a change. The Lib Dems obviously couldn't be trusted with something so important when it really came down to it, which is why their support collapsed at the end.

Politics in this country really is at a low point. I think that is where Labour have missed a trick here, the time is ripe for someone new to it to draw a line under not only Labour's recent history but everything. The public wants it.

Ed is just same shit, different day.

 

[phisheep]

Politics in this country really is at a low point. I think that is where Labour have missed a trick here, the time is ripe for someone new to it to draw a line under not only Labour's recent history but everything. The public wants it.

Ed is just same shit, different day.

I'm inclined to think the other way round. Politics is at a high point: because policy and strategy are at issue in all three major parties; because people are extremely - and rightly - suspicious of career politicians and resent attempts (like Lords reform) to play silly political games for the sake of it; because the outcome of elections is, for a pleasant change, undetermined.

The gate is wide open for someone to grasp not so much the heavily-championed "middle ground" but enough of a sense of reality - across the board - that people will relate to it. All three parties lack that right now.

Next couple of years are going to be interesting indeed.

 

[Conor 419]

Absolute disaster for the Conservative party, a complete and utter scandal. Shameless.

 

[DECK'ARD]

I'm inclined to think the other way round. Politics is at a high point: because policy and strategy are at issue in all three major parties; because people are extremely - and rightly - suspicious of career politicians and resent attempts (like Lords reform) to play silly political games for the sake of it; because the outcome of elections is, for a pleasant change, undetermined.

The gate is wide open for someone to grasp not so much the heavily-championed "middle ground" but enough of a sense of reality - across the board - that people will relate to it. All three parties lack that right now.

Next couple of years are going to be interesting indeed.

I agree there has never been more scrutiny, or more for them to prove as it were.

I just hope someone has enough vision to do it, and the avenues are there for them to be able to. And not just more career politicians getting in the way of it. The next few years are definitely going to be interesting, but it's going to take more than relying on the unpopularity of other parties for it to happen.

Someone needs to take the initiative.

 

[Dambrosi]

.

...are you a joke account? It's just, well, that post sounds awfully familiar, almost as if you've said this before.

Not that I disagree, it is a disaster, but the Olympics and Union Jack and cheering on our boys and girls and whatnot. That's what's most important, yeah?

Lol, the crash happened under Labours watch, and they had no idea it was coming as they were busy spending every penny they could find and borrow when it hit.

Your post made me actually cringe.

Actually, nevermind. Here comes Kitchy The Kitten, ladies and gentlemen! *applause mixed with canned laughter*

You do realise the current financial crisis started in the United States, right? Or is the truth too left-leaning for you? *badumtish*

 

[Walshicus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEDFMKjhLRw&sns=tw
Boris Johnson's Olympic Welcome...

 

[Conor 419]

...are you a joke account? It's just, well, that post sounds awfully familiar, almost as if you've said this before.

Not that I disagree, it is a disaster, but the Olympics and Union Jack and cheering on our boys and girls and whatnot. That's what's most important, yeah?

No.