phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
It's statistics all the way down, I guess.
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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
It's statistics all the way down, I guess.
Nicktendo86
Member
Well.. thats good I suppose?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
First policy announcement.
Extra cuts for Education, but money recycled. DfID cuts. MoD budget protected.
Extra cuts in other current budgets, but money recycled into capex.
Overall the announcements are fiscally neutral, but they have taken money out of current spending (general employment) and pushed it into capex (infrastructure, construction).
Extra cuts for Education, but money recycled. DfID cuts. MoD budget protected.
Extra cuts in other current budgets, but money recycled into capex.
Overall the announcements are fiscally neutral, but they have taken money out of current spending (general employment) and pushed it into capex (infrastructure, construction).
zomgbbqftw
Banned
2,500 more tax inspectors, that's fun for business.
GAAR! That's a big announcement.
HMRC budget protected. Extra resources going to clamping down on transfer payments for multinationals.
GAAR! That's a big announcement.
HMRC budget protected. Extra resources going to clamping down on transfer payments for multinationals.
Nicktendo86
Member
Extra £1billon to be spent on roads. Wish some of that would find it's way to sort out pot holes in London...
zomgbbqftw
Banned
1% rise for benefits (Excluding pensions and disability related benefits) for three years. Massive policy announcement.
Primary legislation as well. Labour are going to love that. Ed Balls already shaking his head, he knows this is going to be hard to oppose but Labour will lose a lot of voters if they are seen to side with the Conservatives on benefits.
Primary legislation as well. Labour are going to love that. Ed Balls already shaking his head, he knows this is going to be hard to oppose but Labour will lose a lot of voters if they are seen to side with the Conservatives on benefits.
Delusibeta
Banned
There's going to be plenty of complaints about that, I suspect.
so there should its basically a cut in benefits.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I love the sort of swift duplicity of "well, wages should have gone up but havent" and then stating both benefits and wages will go up 1% together which is less than inflation. So, fuck town all round, nobody wins, essentially a cut in benefits and wage rises are still as far behind as ever.
Any kind of "on target" figures for this year bely the tumble for the next period, and then predictions that magically its all going to turn around come 2017 even though all Osbourne is doing is plate spinning and shuffling funds so whenever one area benefits another loses out, rather than a concerted effort to drag every area up simultaneously.
Any kind of "on target" figures for this year bely the tumble for the next period, and then predictions that magically its all going to turn around come 2017 even though all Osbourne is doing is plate spinning and shuffling funds so whenever one area benefits another loses out, rather than a concerted effort to drag every area up simultaneously.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Office for Shale Gas Extraction. Big announcement. Moratorium on fracking is over.
Corporation tax down to 21% in 2014/15. Should be a lot of happy businesses here. Bank levy up 0.0013% as a countermeasure for banks.
Fuel duty rise cancelled. Expensive.
Corporation tax down to 21% in 2014/15. Should be a lot of happy businesses here. Bank levy up 0.0013% as a countermeasure for banks.
Fuel duty rise cancelled. Expensive.
Nicktendo86
Member
Apparently carer and disability benefits WILL go up in line with inflation so that's some good news. I would expect it to tbh but still good to hear.
Delusibeta
Banned
Benefits cut, business taxes cut and a green light for shale gas extraction. Place yer bets on when the next general strike will occur, I'm putting my money on "within six months".
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Tax free allowance up to £9.4k, that is a nice measure.
Nicktendo86
Member
3p fuel rise cancelled
Nicktendo86
Member
Will deffo help, had another paultry pay rise this year even though my company has made record earnings.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Nah, the benefits cut was always going to come. Last year when they were uprated by 5.4% and public sector pay was frozen there were plenty of howls from Conservative benches as well as Labour. This time both rising by 1% is fair. Over the three years wage rises will outsrip benefits rises and that will go quite some way to incentivising work. Sounds harsh, but with a £109bn deficit there isn't much they can do.
UnblessedSoul
Member
All those growth targets are laughable, where do they think it's going to come from? Not even their own investment will make it happen, Unemployment is falling because there's more part time min wage jobs and underemployment, even with the Olympics this year we are set to end in negative values.
Nicktendo86
Member
I didn't think it was that bad, could have been worse. Everyone was expecting the deficit and borring to rise but has gone down, small 1% rise in benefits for 3 years BUT the disabled and carers will get rises in line with inflation. More investment in roads/construction, 3p rise in fuel duty cancelled, tax free allowance going up, could have been much worse.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Why? It wasn't bad to be honest. Missing the debt target was always going to happen, but they will get around that by blaming the Eurozone and net trade, which the Chancellor did.
Cutting benefits for the poorest in society isn't the most popular thing ever. Also a borderline triple dip recession. He's so good at his job.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Balls is very poor here. The 1% rise in benefits has really skewered Labour, especially with the primary legislation. Labour can't claim to be on the side of working people and oppose the legislation, but if they support it they will lose a lot of their core voters.
I think you will find it is extremely popular.
I think you will find it is extremely popular.
Just because the Conservative party said it? Whats overly bad about it given the current scenario?
Nicktendo86
Member
This is the third time I've said this but benefits for the disabled and carers will go up in line with inflation so, coupled with the mere 1% for everyone else, I don't imagine too many people getting upset.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Can't get hold of a book and the OBR website is down. Fucks sake.
travisbickle
Member
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
BBC economics lady isn't sure quite how borrowing has fallen, despite it being expected to rise.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Right I'm in.
http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.ind...-2012-Economic-and-fiscal-outlook23423423.pdf
It's here if anyone wants to have a look.
http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.ind...-2012-Economic-and-fiscal-outlook23423423.pdf
It's here if anyone wants to have a look.
I know.... Lets just pay everyone on benefits £40k a year and be done with it.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I heavily suspect its just some shuffling and delaying shit and the truth of the situation will just seep out again in next years bout. Rather than borrow this year, theyve just moved stuff about for like a one year stay of execution so their plan isnt just largely and clearly revealed to not be working. Where extra cuts are meant to be achieved in the areas now losing out is anyones guess.
It wasnt a disastrous one due to "good will" gestures such as the kibosh on the fuel hike, but its all crappy plasters on a ballooning plan filled with sloshing piss just waiting to burst. Now should be the "all in" time to get things bombing along again, but Conservative does as Conservative means, which just isnt the best solution for bouncing back from rollicking economic shit times. An economic decrease in a year such as the Olympics is just really pretty unforgiveable.
Peston's nailed that the 4G 'sale' is whats saved Osbournes bacon here really. Without that, my oh my that hole..
Nicktendo86
Member
I'm sorry but to an extent it is true, I was born, grew up and still live in a poor part of East London and I know many people who would rather stay on benefits and have no interest in looking for a job.
travisbickle
Member
There is no work to incentivise.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
So on the first glance, the extra year to get the borrowing under control seems to be unnecessary.
All of which, I suspect, are only delaying the inevitable harshness until next year - and by then they'll have a nice, freshly-plucked Royal sprog to distract us with. It's almost as if it was planned...
I'm kidding, I swear
I'm not sure what you are saying.... The employment market is a perpetually moving meat grinder, occasionally people fall out of that grinder and they should be caught on the benefits safety net so they can get up and try to jump straight back in to the grinder......
If the safety net is made of big fluffy plush pillows and full of free stuff the temptation is stick around on it and maybe have a kip for a while. If its made of old twine and hard the sooner people will want get straight back off it.
So to speak.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
If the safety net however has holes in it and is no longer "surviveable", then thats where the real anger is going to come from.
I'm not convinced recent unemployment breakthroughs are longterm, I just see signs all the time of another great shittening just peaking through very brown clouds indeed, so its not really much comfort for anyone currently staring at losing their job that benefits wont even really be at a liveable wage in competition with inflation.
I mean I guess you do want people shitting themselves and more desperation to get back into work, but good lord, austerity all the way to 2018? That really is a lost generation in clear decade form.
I'm not convinced recent unemployment breakthroughs are longterm, I just see signs all the time of another great shittening just peaking through very brown clouds indeed, so its not really much comfort for anyone currently staring at losing their job that benefits wont even really be at a liveable wage in competition with inflation.
I mean I guess you do want people shitting themselves and more desperation to get back into work, but good lord, austerity all the way to 2018? That really is a lost generation in clear decade form.
travisbickle
Member
There was a rapid increase of a million unemployed people between 2008-09 after the financial crash. We're still no closer to pre-crash levels of employment, because every year more people enter the workforce, less people leave.
Stop with the bullshit about the benefits system being for the old donkeys who haven't any skills. Right now we have the largest workforce ever, and the benefits system is for the educated and skilled who are unable to find work because noone is increasing productivity that would meet the demands of an ever-increasing workforce.
UnblessedSoul
Member
You think there's high unemployment because they don't want to work? Being on benefits is no fairytale, although I guess you picture chavs with 4 babys living luxary off them as what the majority are doing which is false, the point is that there isn't the jobs available, the "want" is irrelevant for the most part and won't change things.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
You act like we don't have a £109bn hole in the national finances. We do.
Other measures include a £2bn tax grab from the middle classes, and a £4bn tax grab from the rich.
You think the Chancellor wants to irritate his natural core voting base? Of course not, but we have a £109bn hole in the national finances.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
OBR saying that our contraction this year is down to poor net trade with the EU, losses there outstripped gains in trade with other nations.
First year ever that FDI has been negative, again because of the EU.
First year ever that FDI has been negative, again because of the EU.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Yes we do, and clearly austerity isn't working/hasn't worked, with a "deadline" ever stretching into the distance and no real signs of plugging that hole at any achievable rate that isn't going to come at the expense of people that have at this point nothing more to give.
Plan A has failed, re-committing to Plan A with "just needs a little more time" is about the same level as doing nothing at all and just hoping gold falls from the sky like another 100 4G 'discoveries'.
Plan A has failed, re-committing to Plan A with "just needs a little more time" is about the same level as doing nothing at all and just hoping gold falls from the sky like another 100 4G 'discoveries'.
I'm not saying unemployment isn't high, and I'm also not saying that families of "chavs" don't exist either because they do, I see them every day in my work.
The jobs market is perpetually moving and turning over people, as old jobs are lost, new are created and if people are trying but genuinely struggling to find work then they need to be helped, but they don't need to incentivised not to work.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Well the extra year that the OBR have stuck in doesn't look necessary. I expect it will help pre-election positionting, "our measures have worked, so we are cancelling the final year of austerity, debt has begun falling already".
I don't see how we have any choice, if we change away from our current fiscal plan it would not go well, and more austerity is probably not a good idea. For better or worse we are where we are. A change of government would make little difference, the current one is running almost exactly to Darling's plans for spending and taxation, so Labour would have done the same things and would do the same if they came into government now.
There are few to no solutions to our problems, and other than the government directly buying up bank bonds (which comes with a huge moral hazard) to inflate a new debt bubble I don't see any easy fix.
It's a grim picture, but again, we started with a £159bn deficit, and it is forecast to fall to £109bn so that's progress.
UnblessedSoul
Member
Haha businesses want an NI break for every apprentice they take on, I guess paying them half the min wage is not enough for them.
Again in real terms with inflation it's an overall cut on benefits
Again in real terms with inflation it's an overall cut on benefits
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Well, it depends what you mean by "plan A", and rather more importantly what "plan B" is supposed to be. If "plan B" is no austerity at all and a huge bunch more government spending then that is a road to ruin - higher taxation all round, bigger deficits all round, bigger debts all round and so on - not a good story. Could only be supported by even more improbably optimistic growth prospects than we already have.
As for me, I quite pleased at the extensions of 100% Small Business Rates Relief to 2014. Though that does mean that next year I will probably pay more in corporation tax than the whole of fuckin' Starbucks has for 15 years - which to be quite honest I find rather grating. And it is slightly odd that the headline rate of corporation tax is coming down to within a whisker of the small business rate. That's good news for big companies and for those bordering on 1/3 million profit, but not a huge incentive to the small ones amongst us especially if we actually pay our taxes.
Can't complain in all honesty, as I'm all in favour of flatter taxation and it is flattening, at least at the corporate level. Would like to have seen some more incentive for small businesses to pick up employees even at below min wage - as it is I am flooded with people who would gladly work here (and maybe in summer I could take on two or three) but the business does not yet have the numbers to support that. So instead the two of us get to work ungodly hours for about 1/3 min wage (as owners) when sometimes we could damn well do with a rest. Be better come springtime, but for now it is knackering and if snow comes then taking on someone for Saturdays would wipe out a day's takings and a week's profits.
One thing I would consider doing (though the charity lobby would rail against it) is ending the special rates relief for charities. Couple of towns around completely dominated by charity shops who (a) don't employ anybody (all staffed by volunteers) (b) don't pay rates and (c) serve to prop up high street rents beyond what small businesses can afford (or at least afford to commit to).
UnblessedSoul
Member
The OBR growth estimates boggle my mind, they expect a rise in business investment, consumer spending along with a positive trade to suddenly just appear next year their forcasts are not credible at all. I can't see any of those things happening to the degree they state. This situation can't be based on past data there won't be no sudden bounce back of growth like before.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Business investment will rise on the back of the new £250k capex allowance, consumer spending will rise because of lower inflation and higher disposable income and as for positive trade, well that's dependent on the EU getting their house in order. Our net trade with non-EU nations has improved dramtically since 2010, even if our trade with the EU just stagnates then our ongoing improvement with non-EU will see our overall trade position improve.
None of those forecasts are out of line with current thinking.
UnblessedSoul
Member
EU trade will only get worse next year, the worst has yet to come for them, trade outside the EU wont be able to plug the gap, consumers are still paying off their own debt, they wont suddenly go on a spending spree, and business investment will be slightly better for small businesses with the allowance but wont match their forecasts
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Business investment: probably as a result of the increased capital expenditure allowance and this new banking-for-small-business thing they announced, I expect it will happen.
Consumer spending: I expect that whatever happens next year consumer spending will be up. A huge drag on (non-necessary) consumer spending this year was the continuous rotten weather. So they're probably right on that one as well, but may not be able to string it out for more than a year or two.
Positive trade? Don't know. I'm a relatively big contributor to the negative side (but have some small opportunities in Netherlands/Germany).