Yeah, he wants the right on his party to STFU and not rebel before the next election.
In his favour though is that Labour are currently led by a nasal tit.
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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
Yeah, he wants the right on his party to STFU and not rebel before the next election.
In his favour though is that Labour are currently led by a nasal tit.
CyclopsRock
Member
I don't think it is only UKIP he's trying to stem, but also conservatives that don't see the Tory party as conservative anymore and so just don't bother to turn out to vote.
I hope we don't end up like the US, where the centralists (on both sides) end up having to pander to fringe nutters in the party.
Watching the very left leaning (for a Republican) McCain have to pretend to be a NeoCon was embarrassing, hard to imagine they based Arnold Vinnick in the West Wing on McCain but that was pre the 2008 election...
Watching the very left leaning (for a Republican) McCain have to pretend to be a NeoCon was embarrassing, hard to imagine they based Arnold Vinnick in the West Wing on McCain but that was pre the 2008 election...
Nicktendo86
Member
Puts labour in a very difficult position doesn't it and makes things very interesting for the next election.
CyclopsRock
Member
It's a funny old quandry though, isn't it? There are so many ways this can still go wrong for the Tories. Firstly, it could give the Eurosceptics the taste for blood - they've gotten their biggest victory since we didn't join the Euro, and maybe they won't want to wait another 15 years for the next. The 22 are usually pretty reasonable (they just need Boris to turn up and gee them up a bit every now and then) but what about the people that already deserted them once for UKIP?
Likewise, what happens - having said a) we need to repatriate powers and renegotiate our relationship with the EU and b) we should, nontheless, stay in - if the negotiations go badly, and Cam comes away with basically nothing? I know this is post-2015, but how does he campaign then? It'll wring a bit hollow if he starts arguing that, actually, the EU as it is at the moment is fine really, no need to change anything! And he certainly can't say that he abjectly failed at the negotiations. I can't see he'll have much choice but to campaign for a Brexit, which he doesn't actually want.
Then again, what he said in the speech is true: "Democratic consent for the EU in Britain is now wafter thin. The question mark is already there. Ignoring it is not going to make it go away." That's pretty much spot on. I'm not a fan of democracy making decisions like this - I think it's too complex for people that, like us, don't spend their days knocking one out over policy minutae and trade statistics to try and define and defend. But he's certainly right that democratic consent for the EU is severely tested right now. So, even for supporters of the EU, you have to ask yourself whether you care more about democracy or the public good. "It's for your own good" is a scarily steep slope, IMO.
Likewise, what happens - having said a) we need to repatriate powers and renegotiate our relationship with the EU and b) we should, nontheless, stay in - if the negotiations go badly, and Cam comes away with basically nothing? I know this is post-2015, but how does he campaign then? It'll wring a bit hollow if he starts arguing that, actually, the EU as it is at the moment is fine really, no need to change anything! And he certainly can't say that he abjectly failed at the negotiations. I can't see he'll have much choice but to campaign for a Brexit, which he doesn't actually want.
Then again, what he said in the speech is true: "Democratic consent for the EU in Britain is now wafter thin. The question mark is already there. Ignoring it is not going to make it go away." That's pretty much spot on. I'm not a fan of democracy making decisions like this - I think it's too complex for people that, like us, don't spend their days knocking one out over policy minutae and trade statistics to try and define and defend. But he's certainly right that democratic consent for the EU is severely tested right now. So, even for supporters of the EU, you have to ask yourself whether you care more about democracy or the public good. "It's for your own good" is a scarily steep slope, IMO.
It could weaken business ties, no?
I'm not even sure there's a mechanism for leaving the EU currently - or was that added in a recent treaty?
Let's say the UK did decide to leave the EU - practically speaking, what would that mean when it comes to things like freedom of movement? There's very many Europeans living in London and Britain for example, and very many British people living across Europe. Do they all suddenly lose the right to live indefinitely where they're living?
Nicktendo86
Member
Lol
CyclopsRock
Member
It would be entirely the UKs decision. I would be very surprised if they were all suddenly turfed out. At the very worst I imagine it'd be a very slow phasing but even that seems unlikely. My hunch is that the larger effect would fall on those seeking to come in, rather than those already here.
A bigger question is what would happen to British ex-pats in EU countries. That would be entirely out of our hands and I assume they'd just end up being treated like nationals from outside of the EU - applying for visas and the like, though the national governments of the EU nations could do whatever they want there, too.
Nicktendo86
Member
Then that's fine, if that is what the British people want, that is what they will get. I think the problem most people have is that secsessive governments have signed treaties without a mandate from the public. What's the problem with, in this democratic nation, asking the public whether they want to be in or out?
CyclopsRock
Member
I really don't know. The thing with the EU is that most people either hate it or don't care. You don't get many pro-EU zealots. Unless the EU referendum is bundled in with some other vote, I can't see the pro-EU folk turning out in their droves to vote in favour of a new, negotiated relationship with them. The anti-folk, however, certainly will do. Likewise, whilst there might be a few careers ruined before it's all done and dusted, this is the most Euro-sceptic cabinet the UK has ever had. You certainly have more pro-EU ministers than anti, but big positions like Education and Health (I believe? Could be wrong there) swing the other way.
That just seems a mess. A horribly regressive step on that front if it were to happen.
I'm an outsider (next door in Ireland) looking in. I personally have no vested interest in Britain leaving or staying from the point of view of mobility, in that I can come and go out of the UK either way. But I think it would be really sad to see that kind of split-up. I can understand wanting to change things but it would be sad for Britain to leave full stop :/
Incontinentia Buttocks
Banned
I don't think it's a given, hence why there's never been a referendum. It seems that the majority of the politicians want to stay but the biggest selling papers would campaign for an out.
CyclopsRock
Member
What this referendum does do is offer Cam a strong negotiating position. He can go there and - genuinely - say "look chaps, my back's against the wall, this referendum is incoming whether you like it or not, so let's get a good deal or else I'll have to go with the wishes of my people and GTFO." It's not in the EU's best interest that we leave, even though many in the EU parliament obviously hate us.
That's my concern.
Indeed, so many people form opinions with no facts, just a quote or a headline. People like to live in a bubble where all their input (news included) fits their world view.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Exactly, democracy is good, but some of the papers are and have been for a long time, disingenuous about the EU. After the AV referendum, I have no faith.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Personally I think First Past the Post is better then AV anyway, but I agree that it was the volume of the media that actually made people vote that way, not any deep understanding of the differences.
Nicktendo86
Member
Umm I agree that the papers do have a large sway over the population but surely it is up to the pro EU side to counter those claims and convince us that we should stay in the EU, that is what democracy is all about. I know that may be difficult with an anti EU press but, perhaps, they are only like that because most people are apathetic towards the EU and the papers just reflect/reinforce that.
Incontinentia Buttocks
Banned
The papers reflect their owners opinion more than anything else.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
The speech has been well received in the City. Cameron has basically signalled that we are not leaving the EU, but he is going to get a better settlement for Britain. I expect a veto on financial regulation, Barnier's head on a platter, and a partial withdrawal from the CAP all to be items on the table.
Essentially Dave is heading to the EU with a laundry list of reforms/opt-outs/vetoes he wants and if he can get enough of them he will call the vote and campaign to stay in. If the settlement is good enough (and it probably will be, the last time someone said no to the EU they got plenty of opt-outs) then I expect people will vote to stay in. Depending on what Dave can get, I would probably vote to stay in.
Essentially Dave is heading to the EU with a laundry list of reforms/opt-outs/vetoes he wants and if he can get enough of them he will call the vote and campaign to stay in. If the settlement is good enough (and it probably will be, the last time someone said no to the EU they got plenty of opt-outs) then I expect people will vote to stay in. Depending on what Dave can get, I would probably vote to stay in.
QuicheFontaine
Member
According to a recent YouGov poll, 40% would vote to leave the EU in a referendum and 37% would vote to stay. So I'd say it could easily go either way.
Mind you, were talking about a hypothetical referendum in 2017 so even Nostradamus would struggle.
Same here. We need to just tell the Eu to hold their horses a bit and stop behaving like power hungry madmen and all will be good.
Most see the EU as a good thing in principle but it is currently going to far with a no mandate to do so. If Dave can pull it back a bit, peoples minds will change.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Oh dear, Ed Miliband has just said Labour are not going to offer an in/out referendum. Should have waited to see how it played out and just obfuscated for a while. If this does become the election winning policy (which it might) then Ed M is now in trouble, if he rows back then he is an opportunist that can't be trusted, if he sticks to it he will lose a lot of white working class votes to the Tories in the Midlands and parts of the North.
When it comes to the EU Labour just bend over and pay for the lube themselves.....
QuicheFontaine
Member
I'd say that's a pretty spot-on assessment. Even if nothing else comes of this (and there's every chance the Tories won't win the next GE and this referendum won't come to pass) at least it shifts the debate in the right direction. i.e. asking fundamental questions about the EUs purpose, competence (in the legal definition, as well as its functioning), mandate, and accountability. And whether it is good for the UK.
CyclopsRock
Member
I don't think papers reflecting their owners opinion is a problem. I mean, if you were to set up a newspaper, what would your line be? "Stuff I don't agree with"? Of course not. As long as you have a plurality of opinion, I don't see a problem. Now, lies are another thing, but as has been stated, we have laws to deal with that already.
Incidentally, I think the loss of the AV vote has more to do with how shit AV is and how even those campaigning for it didn't want it, rather than due to a media campaign.
Incidentally, I think the loss of the AV vote has more to do with how shit AV is and how even those campaigning for it didn't want it, rather than due to a media campaign.
[Citation needed]
Only if they agree to remove the word "news" from the title and become a magazine, which most of them are now.
Sadly some people are dumb enough to believe everything they read in the "news"papers and when that opinion is from a poisonous old cunt like Murdoch...well let's just say it's not good.
CyclopsRock
Member
Well you can both present an opinion AND be news. What you choose to show and what you choose to omit is going to present a certain view, whether you mean to or not. In fact, that's often the crux of those that argue the BBC is bias's point - that it isn't what it says, it is what it doesn't say. And that's true of newspapers too. Two papers can present a story from two angles, presenting their editorial opinion and still be news. Otherwise there would be no'news'.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
The No campaign was absolutely disgusting as well, using misinformation and outright lies, and got away absolutely scot-free.
I can see Spain pushing hard to make Scottish EU entry difficult, to try and dissuade the independence movement in Catalonia.
Delusibeta
Banned
Torygraph bullshit is the source.
But you must say "this is my opinion", and usually say who you are, editorials must be presented that way.
So unless the Sun is about to pre-phrase their headlines with "in the opinion of Rich old Racist:"...
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Reports say the Germans have seen where the wind is blowing, Merkel is ready to open up talks with Cameron over EU concessions in order to stop us from using the exit door.
I think this is where alot of people have misguided idea's about just how much influence the print media have over the population (admittedly though they do influence politicians).
Print media has been in decline for well over a decade. Case in point that Murdochs backing of the tories at the last election is known to have had little effect in the outcome, which resulted in a hung parliament. The result was more determined by people just being fed up with Labour
People who buy trash like the Sun, dont buy it for the politics, they buy it for the gossip and sport. In turn they are well known to be the least likely to turn out to vote.
As for papers like the Mail...Well, they gravitate towards the paper because it shares the more right wing views. There is nothing at all that anyone can say that will change their minds
Cant help but get the feeling that Germany is getting a bit tired of France and the dynamic duo of the EU may have had a bit of a falling out.
If there a official poligaf EU thread for such matters?
Not to sure about that, as both French & German foreign ministers were singing from the same hymn book this morning. Thats not surprising, as both are now in a extremely difficult position.
If they allow Britain to renegotiate, French & German dominance will be hit hard in the EU. This will either be the EU becoming a three headed monkey or a more balanced EU in general.
If they flat out refuse, they will be opening themselves up to attacks at home. While both governments speak with a pro-EU voice, there are still a considerable amout of sceptics in both countries (France voted no to lisbon).
If Britain goes to the polls for an in/out without any renegotiation, French & German eurosceptics may well become just plain anti-EU
kurtrussell
Banned
DeFiBkIlLeR
Banned
There's more chance of the former than the latter...but very little chance either will happen.
PJV3
Member
If Cameron somehow manages to claw back powers over employment, I would vote no in the referendum.
Having Tory policy enshrined like that would be impossible. I have many problems with the EU which I accept because it's about compromise.
I still think we're heading for a hung parliament, so fuck knows what that would do to his plans.
Having Tory policy enshrined like that would be impossible. I have many problems with the EU which I accept because it's about compromise.
I still think we're heading for a hung parliament, so fuck knows what that would do to his plans.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
This is the 50th anniversary of the Élysée Treaty, so of course they are singing from the same sheet right now.
We've been talking to German sources today for their reaction, and they are very worried about the UK leaving the EU as it would hand too much power to the south, they want to keep Britain in the EU more than any other nation. France want us out because we have stifled their protectionist agenda at every turn, so it's no surprise that they are shouting from the rooftops that we won't be given anything and so forth. However, the Germans know that if we were to secure permanent protection for the City, an opt out of the CAP and CFP, and an opt out of the ETS it would be enough to take to the public while costing very little in political terms as it mostly hits the French or the south.
The guardian hacks said this would cause instability and uncertianty. Well the FTSE has edged up.
DeFiBkIlLeR
Banned
Well seeing as the UK has just overtaken France to become Germany's biggest trade partner...they have many reasons to want us to remain in.
kurtrussell
Banned
Lol!
When are people going to realise that The Guardian is basically a bizarro-world Daily Mail?
Agreed but the problem is that France have to many friends in the EU to allow CAP reform. I think the most likely thing though to split the French & Germans is that trade between the two is in decline. British-German trade is now the dominant in the EU.
So the German government maybe saying "No" to renegotiation now but German business may very well change that tone