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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

K

kitch9

Banned
fizzelopeguss said:
A long term recession?
Click to expand...

Where has there been a long term recession?

I know our growth can hardly be described as explosive but can we all just quit with the hyperbole and call it what it is?

I'm not sure where the idea that the government blowing wads of cash and borrowing till the pips squeak is suddenly going to fix all the problems caused by massive worldwide low consumer confidence is coming from. There is hardly any trust in the world anymore for anything or anyone is no-one is safe from problems and until that trust is rebuilt people and companies are just going to hang on to as much as they have instead of taking risks, but even that is now a risk if Cyprus and the potential theft of money is anything to go by.

How are the markets supposed to trust our ability to pay back whatever they deem to be excessive borrowing if they don't trust anyone else? Our current low interest rates are because we are viewed as one of the best of a bad bunch but that could change overnight or at the swipe of a ratings agency pen as we are already seeing. If interest rates go out of control we'll be spending and borrowing even more billions just to pay off interest, that's before whether we should worry or not if people get a free 3rd bedroom or not.
 
D

defel

Member
Most economists refer to it as the Great Recession. It has been a different type of recession and shares many characteristics with the Great Depression. To suggest that we are in a depression is not an unreasonable position to take
 
S

SteveWD40

Member
defel said:
Most economists refer to it as the Great Recession. It has been a different type of recession and shares many characteristics with the Great Depression. To suggest that we are in a depression is not an unreasonable position to take
Click to expand...

To the sane minded no, perhaps not (although I don't agree), but the problem is the media will post pictures of the Great Depression and convince people they will be carpetbagging soon and eating their pets and consumer confidence will drop even further.

Potentially dangerous word to use I guess.
 
P

Pasco_

Banned
The technical niceties mean very little, except for headline writers.

A recession is two consecutive quarters of growth, yeah? So which is the healthier economy over two years:

A) Q1: 0.1% Q2: -0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1% Q1: 0.1% Q2: -0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1%

B) Q1: -0.1% Q2: 0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1% Q1: -0.1% Q2: 0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1%

The answer is neither, just like our economy, they are both shit! A experienced a double dip recession, but both are economies bobbling along at effectively ~0% growth (which is what we've got in the UK) is a shit situation regardless of whether there is a technical double dip recession.


Of course, were we not in a global capitalist model, sustainable only through infinite growth, then a ~0% growth economy would not necessarily be a problem.


Oh, and today's budget is the equivalent of pouring a cup of flour, 2 eggs and a pint of milk into the ocean and suggesting your going to make the worlds largest pancake.
 
K

kitch9

Banned
Pasco_ said:
The technical niceties mean very little, except for headline writers.

A recession is two consecutive quarters of growth, yeah? So which is the healthier economy over two years:

A) Q1: 0.1% Q2: -0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1% Q1: 0.1% Q2: -0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1%

B) Q1: -0.1% Q2: 0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1% Q1: -0.1% Q2: 0.1% Q3: -0.1% Q4: 0.1%

The answer is neither, just like our economy, they are both shit! A experienced a double dip recession, but both are economies bobbling along at effectively ~0% growth (which is what we've got in the UK) is a shit situation regardless of whether there is a technical double dip recession.


Of course, were we not in a global capitalist model, sustainable only through infinite growth, then a ~0% growth economy would not necessarily be a problem.


Oh, and today's budget is the equivalent of pouring a cup of flour, 2 eggs and a pint of milk into the ocean and suggesting your going to make the worlds largest pancake.
Click to expand...

We are just bobbling along at the minute, at little growth here, and little dip there and so on we've had that for a few years now, and we'll have it for a few yet. It can hardly be described as a depression, more like stagnation but I know which I'd rather have.

Labour seem to to think a 2p VAT cut and a mansion tax will solve everything so it appears bright ideas are not exactly flowing for the government or the opposition. My guess is there's no magic fix.
 
P

Pasco_

Banned
kitch9 said:
My guess is there's no magic fix.
Click to expand...

Full Communism.


Nah, but seriously, we're fucked.

EDIT: That was a little too glib. We are fucked, but the question is who should be getting fucked the most.

I would argue that in these times of austerity, those with the broadest backs should bear the greatest burden, and those with nothing should have nothing asked of them. "a 2p VAT cut and a mansion tax" might not solve anything, but it would be a transferral of the burden of being fucked from the poor to the rich.
 
S

SteveWD40

Member
Pasco_ said:
I would argue that in these times of austerity, those with the broadest backs should bear the greatest burden, and those with nothing should have nothing asked of them. "a 2p VAT cut and a mansion tax" might not solve anything, but it would be a transferral of the burden of being fucked from the poor to the rich.
Click to expand...

I agree with this, we are not "fucked" though, I don't even know what that means.
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
Pasco_ said:
Oh, and today's budget is the equivalent of pouring a cup of flour, 2 eggs and a pint of milk into the ocean and suggesting your going to make the worlds largest pancake.
Click to expand...

This is true of every budget given by every politician. Very little action promising the world. I wish they didn't do it either, but that's how it works. Ken Clark and Nigel Lawson were the last really radical Chancellors, Osborne doesn't have anywhere near the balls to be as radical as they were.

At least they haven't leaked it in advance this time, so that's something.

Here's what we can expect:

1p off corporation tax
Allowance extended to £10k a year earlier than planned
Fuel duty frozen
No mansion tax
APD rates raised
Some bonkers green stuff that will cost families and business a shit load of money
"Investment"
Extra back loaded cuts
 
K

kitch9

Banned
Pasco_ said:
Full Communism.


Nah, but seriously, we're fucked.

EDIT: That was a little too glib. We are fucked, but the question is who should be getting fucked the most.

I would argue that in these times of austerity, those with the broadest backs should bear the greatest burden, and those with nothing should have nothing asked of them. "a 2p VAT cut and a mansion tax" might not solve anything, but it would be a transferral of the burden of being fucked from the poor to the rich.
Click to expand...

We should all ignore the largest income tax cuts we've had for a generation then?
 
K

kitch9

Banned
zomgbbqftw said:
This is true of every budget given by every politician. Very little action promising the world. I wish they didn't do it either, but that's how it works. Ken Clark and Nigel Lawson were the last really radical Chancellors, Osborne doesn't have anywhere near the balls to be as radical as they were.

At least they haven't leaked it in advance this time, so that's something.

Here's what we can expect:

1p off corporation tax
Allowance extended to £10k a year earlier than planned
Fuel duty frozen
No mansion tax
APD rates raised
Some bonkers green stuff that will cost families and business a shit load of money
"Investment"
Extra back loaded cuts
Click to expand...

The bonkers green stuff is already costing us £300 each a year at least on our energy bills..
 
H

heliconsoul

Member
kitch9 said:
We should all ignore the largest income tax cuts we've had for a generation then?
Click to expand...

It's quite easy to ignore it yes, especially when earning has plateaued over the last four years while the price of day to day living has increased constantly over that period.

Ask a public sector workers how that income tax reduction has helped with frozen wages while petrol edges towards 1.40p a liter and cost of living continue to increase.
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Budget, bring it on!

I'd like to see some serious help for small businesses (of course I would!) - mostly though in terms of tax reductions for our customers - they are the ones who spend the money after all.

For small business directly, maybe a a cut in corp tax (we've seen plenty of cuts in the large business corp tax, which they mostly don't pay anyway versus the small business rate which we do because we have no choice), maybe a reduction in accounting requirements for small firms, maybe redefining Small Business Rates Relief to depend on the size of the business rather than the size of the premises.

Let's see.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
heliconsoul said:
It's quite easy to ignore it yes, especially when earning has plateaued over the last four years while the price of day to day living has increased constantly over that period.

Ask a public sector workers how that income tax reduction has helped with frozen wages while petrol edges towards 1.40p a liter and cost of living continue to increase.
Click to expand...

I was public sector from 2008-2012, and had my pay frozen the whole time. It sucked. Increments were ordinarily paid, but they were non-contractual. BIS took legal advice and, much to our chagrin, didn't have to pay them. Eventually decided I'd be better off hopping the fence to the private sector (and I'm glad I did!).

zomgbbqftw said:
Got it on at work.
Click to expand...

Keep us posted please! I'll be F5-ing this thread.
 
H

heliconsoul

Member
Cumpkin Hubris said:
I was public sector from 2008-2012, and had my pay frozen the whole time. It sucked. Increments were ordinarily paid, but they were non-contractual. BIS took legal advice and, much to our chagrin, didn't have to pay them. Eventually decided I'd be better off hopping the fence to the private sector (and I'm glad I did!)..
Click to expand...

Anecdotal - my wife is a teacher, her pay has been frozen since 2008 and her take home pay has been reduced due to the pension hike. It's truly a grim profession at the moment and with that cunt Gove in charge I doubt it's going to improve.
 
K

kitch9

Banned
heliconsoul said:
It's quite easy to ignore it yes, especially when earning has plateaued over the last four years while the price of day to day living has increased constantly over that period.

Ask a public sector workers how that income tax reduction has helped with frozen wages while petrol edges towards 1.40p a liter and cost of living continue to increase.
Click to expand...

For me personally I'm a couple of hundred a month better of I reckon, but I was fortunate enough to buy a house with a lifetime tracker mortgage of 1% above base rate.

High energy bills by the way have come from the previous government signing up to a heavy carbon output reduction programme for the UK.

Why should public sector workers not have the same financial pressures as those in the private sector simply because they work for the government?
 
W

Walshicus

Member
phisheep said:
I was private sector from 2000-2005 and had the same. It's a swings and roundabouts thing. Not limited to public sector by any means.
Click to expand...

Definitely not. I've been private sector since graduating. Since 2007 I've had two annual pay-rises and they were marginally above inflation. I'm earning more than I was due to a few promotions and lateral moves, but there are a lot of people here who've stayed in their roles and are earning substantially less in real terms than they were in 2007.
 
K

kitch9

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
Definitely not. I've been private sector since graduating. Since 2007 I've had two annual pay-rises and they were marginally above inflation. I'm earning more than I was due to a few promotions and lateral moves, but there are a lot of people here who've stayed in their roles and are earning substantially less in real terms than they were in 2007.
Click to expand...

You'll get that as long as your employer is financially stable.. If that ever changes then it may change.

The government is not financially stable at the minute.
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
Osborne saying that there will be an £11bn DEL underspend. DEL reduction for 1%, schools and health don't get it.

I don't see the underspend tbh, the figures don't show it.
 
D

dalin80

Banned
heliconsoul said:
Anecdotal - my wife is a teacher, her pay has been frozen since 2008 and her take home pay has been reduced due to the pension hike. It's truly a grim profession at the moment and with that cunt Gove in charge I doubt it's going to improve.
Click to expand...



Iam private sector, since 2008 I havehad a pay cut and my pension is solely the money that I can spare to pay into it, or nothing as the case may be. Grim doesnt quite cover everything.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
phisheep said:
I was private sector from 2000-2005 and had the same. It's a swings and roundabouts thing. Not limited to public sector by any means.
Click to expand...

I see what you're saying, but one of the draws of the public sector is security. I think it's taken as a given that you might not make as much as in the private sector but it's counterbalanced by the perks of being a "job for life" and having a clear, steady progression path.

In my particular field there was a definite feeling of the job having been missold. Indeed, three years after the pay freeze had been implemented the increments were still being advertised in promotional literature for new recruits.
 
D

defel

Member
heliconsoul said:
Anecdotal - my wife is a teacher, her pay has been frozen since 2008 and her take home pay has been reduced due to the pension hike. It's truly a grim profession at the moment and with that cunt Gove in charge I doubt it's going to improve.
Click to expand...

I want to go into teaching once I graduate but I can't justify it with my debts. Gotta get a paying job first!
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Cumpkin Hubris said:
I see what you're saying, but one of the draws of the public sector is security. I think it's taken as a given that you might not make as much as in the private sector but it's counterbalanced by the perks of being a "job for life" and having a clear, steady progression path.

In my particular field there was a definite feeling of the job having been missold. Indeed, three years after the pay freeze had been implemented the increments were still being advertised in promotional literature for new recruits.
Click to expand...

I think that's a myth, at least in the sectors I was working in. Spent a lot of time with public sector people, and mostly my "peers" there were earning twice or three times what I was earning and with considerably less autonomy. Goodness knows where the public sector review bodies get their figures from.

Of course, I never let them know that and they happily assumed that I was earning a huge fortune.
 
D

defel

Member
Don't think that any change in Central bank remit will make much difference. Osbourne needs to shock the markets and announce something large, significant and meaningful but he doesnt have the political capital or the balls.
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
Here we go, green bollocks.

Ugh, carbon capture, such a scam.

EXEMPTION FOR INDUSTRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FUCKING FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good news for the North.
 
K

kitch9

Banned
avaya said:
Governments often run deficits, what is your point? We have our own currency, we are not hamstrung by reliance on fiscal policy.
Click to expand...

Yeah, let's just print more money and pay people whatever they ask for.

Did you go to the Robert Mugabe school of economics or something?
 
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