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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
CyclopsRock
Member
I think the more worrying thing is that it obviously took them several days of political calculating and probably private polling to decide they back it. Say what you want about Brown and Blair, but you could usually say, on any given issue, roughly where they'd stand. It was then about how well they made the arguments and whether you agreed. With Milliband/Balls, it really does seem to be a bit of a crap shoot.
With apologies to https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/ :
David Cameron prepares for Black Mirror remake.
David Cameron prepares for Black Mirror remake.
Nicktendo86
Member
What are you on about? Next Greece?
Of course the recover is built on those things, how would a recovery be built on anything else when manufacturing and exports have been on decline for years? It is such a silly argument to say recovery is build on a housing bubble and consumer spending and dismiss it completely, would it have been better to have been in recession? The economy has not been in 'balance' for decades, the important thing is to secure jobs, get the economy moving and then sort out issues with manufacturing and exports.
Nicktendo86
Member
So inflation down to 1.7%, pay and inflation gap continues to narrow.
CyclopsRock
Member
Espesh with the continued increase in the tax free allowance.
Nicktendo86
Member
Indeed. The cost of living crisis being the one and only economic argument is getting more feeble.
Exit: and STILL, almostba week after the event, no one in the opposition has actually critiqued the budget. I cannot remember that ever happening?
Exit: and STILL, almostba week after the event, no one in the opposition has actually critiqued the budget. I cannot remember that ever happening?
CyclopsRock
Member
Traditionally the opposition give their support or opposition to specific elements of the budget to the Govt whips on Monday night after they've had a proper chance to look at it and the details. They have, as far as I know, yet to do that this year so far.
CyclopsRock
Member
I'm not sure how much impact that'll make. If the Lib Dems have proved anything, it's that trying to appeal primarily to the demographic that are least likely to vote isn't too wise (that they went on to fuck it all up is neither here nor their to their electoral success in 2010). The practical differences between the current system and a graduate tax are so small that I don't really see the benefits - personally I think the system we have right now is pretty good really.
If you don't get a job do you still have to pay it? If I'm lucky enough to be in the position can I pay my kids through uni instead of the tax? I don't really understand the problem with the current system right now either, if anyone's worse off its the government who lose money on everyone who doesn't find a job.
Nicktendo86
Member
Not to mention that it was they who introduced top up fees in the first place.
It really is not an issue, you only start paying back when you start to earn so much, I think £20kish? And it gets written off after I think 30 years? My wife has never even noticed her student loan coming out and she started on £16k and has now gone to £30. I never went to uni as I saw it as a waste of time, but hey ho. It feels like a desperate grab for policy to be honest, almost like a committee sat round a table and said hey, the lib dems got a lit of shit for upping tuition fees, let's do the opposite!
It really is not an issue, you only start paying back when you start to earn so much, I think £20kish? And it gets written off after I think 30 years? My wife has never even noticed her student loan coming out and she started on £16k and has now gone to £30. I never went to uni as I saw it as a waste of time, but hey ho. It feels like a desperate grab for policy to be honest, almost like a committee sat round a table and said hey, the lib dems got a lit of shit for upping tuition fees, let's do the opposite!
anonymous_abc
Member
Will the debate next week be streamed? Really interested in listening to it and watching it.
CyclopsRock
Member
The Clegg-Farage debate? It's on LBC radio tonight which you can indeed stream over the internets, and next weeks is on BBC2 so that, too, is streamed online (if you're in the UK).
anonymous_abc
Member
Which I am not.
Expat 4 life!
What time is it? Will miss due to anniversary...
j/k
Nicktendo86
Member
Oh dear, SSE are freezing their energy prices, would not be surprised if others follow. Cost of living crises getting weaker by the day.
Nicktendo86
Member
My god milliband is getting slaughtered at pmq's today
CyclopsRock
Member
Which I am not.
Expat 4 life!
What time is it? Will miss due to anniversary...j/k
Ah! Sozzlecakes. Uggghhh I dunno, my girlfriend (British, lives in Spain) uses a proxy system to watch iPlayer et al, which is cheap but not free. Not sure about otherwise.
You bang on about the cost of living crisis even more than labour.
Nicktendo86
Member
Lol true, it just baffles me that it is the only thing they talk about regarding the economy and it is falling apart.
In other economic Labour news, turns out they voted against upping the personal allowance, voted against the pension reforms, voted against tax cuts for businesses. I just don't get what they are up to?
Well, given the current thresholds the upping the personal allowance even more is actually a pretty terrible way of helping the poorest earners. Upping the NIC threshold would aid the poorest earners more while affecting most other earners in exactly the same way as an Income Tax threshold increase.
anonymous_abc
Member
bollocks not even the radio debate this evening is streaming internationally. Will have to wait for highlights tomorrow then I guess.
dapperbandit
Banned
this debate is running hot yo
Comments on the live youtube feed are hilariously bad
Comments on the live youtube feed are hilariously bad
Nicktendo86
Member
Well the sun/ICM poll had Farage 'winning' the debate 57%-36%, after watching it I would have to agree. Clegg was very slick, looked more like a politician not diviating from the script and not really answering questions. Farage was just emotion and as such was a bit haphazard, but all in all he seemed the most sincere and I think came across better.
The gay marriage question confirmed why I would never vote for ukip but I can see why so many are saying fuck you to the big three parties.
The gay marriage question confirmed why I would never vote for ukip but I can see why so many are saying fuck you to the big three parties.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Both came across as you would expect. Nothing has changed. UKIP will still struggle to gain a seat at the general election, Lib Dems will be heavily reliant on the local popularity of their individual MPs, many of which I expect to be more resilient than the party's overall polling.
Nicktendo86
Member
Agreed, not a lot will change but it was interesting nonetheless.
CyclopsRock
Member
Given the massively different tunes they're singing, I think it's totally possible that they both "won" the debate in that they sured up their own support.
Nicktendo86
Member
Well personal poll ratings for both have gone up today, Clegg up 4 but Farage up 12 points.
Also, 69% of Tory voters agreed with farage, 42% labour but, most interestingly, 20% of lib dem voters agreed with Fararge!
dapperbandit
Banned
I would agree with this.
Frage mostly repeated what he's been saying for years but getting most of his arguments in one place in a fairly high profile debate is good for UKIP.
Meanwhile, Clegg explained his position fairly well. I'm sure there are people who knew nothing about Clegg's argument except "Nigel is wrong". So it's positive for the Lib Dems too.
Thankfully it was a fairly well managed debate despite Nick and Nigel regularly interrupting each other and exceeding their time allowance when answering questions but thankfully the live audience was well behaved.
Nicktendo86
Member
Dianne Abbott is such a detestable cunt, live tweeting and name dropping the Tony Benn funeral, then makes a fool of herself on the daily politics. I really cannot fathom why anyone votes for her? Her gaffes would have killed the careers of many others by now!
anonymous_abc
Member
just watching the debate, what a damp squib on all fronts...
dey took er jerbs
dey took er jerbs
WayneMorse
Banned
What's Dark Lord Murdoch's prophecy for 2015?
https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/statuses/449159598876790784
and so it is...
https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/statuses/449159598876790784
and so it is...
anonymous_abc
Member
Radical new or old labour?
CyclopsRock
Member
Come on guys, let's all do predictions. 14 months go to...
I say small Tory minority government, with another election within a year with a Tory majority.
I say small Tory minority government, with another election within a year with a Tory majority.
anonymous_abc
Member
Narrow Labour win.
Millibean pushed from office within a year succeeded by Ed.
Millibean pushed from office within a year succeeded by Ed.
o.o
Nicktendo86
Member
I don't see anyone getting a majority, but I see Tories as largest party. Wouldn't be surprised if libdems try to do a deal with labour, I think Milliband will be pm. Sorry, should say I FEAR he will be.
WayneMorse
Banned
With Labour's most radical left wing manifesto since 1983 calling for public ownership of the railways and utilities and an end to austerity, they'll sweep into office with the biggest landslide since 1945.
The Lib Dems are completely wiped out as a third party as every single seat they hold swings to either Labour or the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems are completely wiped out as a third party as every single seat they hold swings to either Labour or the Conservatives.
dapperbandit
Banned
There will be a coup and all powers will be returned to the Monarchy
I bet you 17 pence
I bet you 17 pence
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I'll play.
I expect another Conservative/LibDem Coalition. And if there was a box on the ballot for this I would vote for it. But there isn't.
For all that the two bigger parties are trying to rule out coalitions in order to squeeze the middle as it were, I can't see a significant majority for either. And I don't see the LibDem vote collapsing all that spectacularly either, at least in the traditional "safe" areas.
The next government, like this one, will need a working majority - either for a five-year term or at least a sufficient working majority to take out the fixed-term parliaments. Can't see Labour having sufficient economic credibilty to pull it off, can't see the current Conservatives overcoming the "nasty toffs" label, but can see the coalition coming back together. UKIP will come nowhere in a general election. Might just get as many MPs as the Greens but they are spread too thin. I have great difficulty seeing a Labour/LibDem coalition - labour would want all the cherries and the libdems would lose their soul, the argument and all their policies like in the 1970s.
This might just be wishful thinking, as I've enjoyed the current coalition. It is nice having at least some government decisions openly debated rather than all of them behind sealed doors, and the coalition agreement itself was very nicely worked out, if not always adhered to.
To an extent, Clegg is right. Conservative and Labour (at least in their publicity if not in their policy) are banging late 19th century arguments at each other. Sure, it is maybe governed by what they find from focus groups and suchlike, but whatever happened to the politics of persuasion? So far, *no* party has made a persuasive argument that I should vote for them - and what I'd need in a persuasive argument is some principles, some axioms, some sense of the future and not merely of the past since 2010 (Labour) 2008 (Conservative) 1997 (Labour) or 1979 (Conservative) - when nearly all of the great policy changes happened well before that all the way back to the 17th century. Too much economics, not enough passion or vision.
I expect another Conservative/LibDem Coalition. And if there was a box on the ballot for this I would vote for it. But there isn't.
For all that the two bigger parties are trying to rule out coalitions in order to squeeze the middle as it were, I can't see a significant majority for either. And I don't see the LibDem vote collapsing all that spectacularly either, at least in the traditional "safe" areas.
The next government, like this one, will need a working majority - either for a five-year term or at least a sufficient working majority to take out the fixed-term parliaments. Can't see Labour having sufficient economic credibilty to pull it off, can't see the current Conservatives overcoming the "nasty toffs" label, but can see the coalition coming back together. UKIP will come nowhere in a general election. Might just get as many MPs as the Greens but they are spread too thin. I have great difficulty seeing a Labour/LibDem coalition - labour would want all the cherries and the libdems would lose their soul, the argument and all their policies like in the 1970s.
This might just be wishful thinking, as I've enjoyed the current coalition. It is nice having at least some government decisions openly debated rather than all of them behind sealed doors, and the coalition agreement itself was very nicely worked out, if not always adhered to.
To an extent, Clegg is right. Conservative and Labour (at least in their publicity if not in their policy) are banging late 19th century arguments at each other. Sure, it is maybe governed by what they find from focus groups and suchlike, but whatever happened to the politics of persuasion? So far, *no* party has made a persuasive argument that I should vote for them - and what I'd need in a persuasive argument is some principles, some axioms, some sense of the future and not merely of the past since 2010 (Labour) 2008 (Conservative) 1997 (Labour) or 1979 (Conservative) - when nearly all of the great policy changes happened well before that all the way back to the 17th century. Too much economics, not enough passion or vision.
Jezbollah
Member
I think we'll see another Lib Dem/Conservative coalition. I don't think the Labour manifesto will win the vote of the undecideds - I see a large UKIP vote swing from Lab/Con even though they won't win a seat in Parliament.
If anything, I think the '15 election will be the beginning of the end of the two Eds - I am sure the Unions will have their way to give them the boot.
If the Conservatives are to win a majority, they need a very family friendly budget later this year to kill off the usual "cost of living" angle Milliband continues to trundle out with.
If anything, I think the '15 election will be the beginning of the end of the two Eds - I am sure the Unions will have their way to give them the boot.
If the Conservatives are to win a majority, they need a very family friendly budget later this year to kill off the usual "cost of living" angle Milliband continues to trundle out with.
WayneMorse
Banned
edit: nvm see below
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
This is a problem with politics the way we do it. Too much about next years budget and not enough about what we want the country to be like in 50-100 years time and how we are going to get there.
Too much about a strike and not enough about whether what is being stricken over is still going to there.
Give me a party that looks forward far enough and I will vote for it if it seems sensible. Political parties are fools if they think I vote on the basis of giveaway budgets. Or impossible promises.
WayneMorse
Banned
The Conservatives can't have a "family friendly" budget. The cuts that are going to come in 2015/2016 will be absolutely horrendous and will pale in comparison to anything we've seen over the past three years, though I guess that would be offset by the "economic recovery" if you even want to call it that.
Nicktendo86
Member
Yeah a Con/Dem coalition is probably a likely outcome. Milliband just looksmlike a complete vote loser, best thing the Tories can do is put his face on as many posters as possible. He has pretty much no policy, and the policy he does have is disastrous.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I thought we did fixed five-year terms these days?
I'm going to predict a small Tory majority, provided the economy continues to pick up.
anonymous_abc
Member
That doesnt mean a governemtn cannot crumble and snap elections are required.
CyclopsRock
Member
Only for this parliament, so as to add some solidity to the coalition (otherwise they'd constantly be wary of working with each other for fear either one would pull out and trigger an election). If it were a minority government already, they wouldn't have to worry about this. They wouldn't get much done for that year, but I think that they'll think they won't need to - now the recovery is pretty much cemented as beginning, they'll see it as just a matter of time before people's quality of life starts improving with - they'll hope - a bump in the polls for them. Hold on for a year or so, call and election and it'll be like the '74 all over again!
QuicheFontaine
Member
Ahh, thanks both ^^
WayneMorse
Banned
Late post here, but I don't think Norman Tebbit could've asked for a better birthday present than to have same sex marriage become legal today.