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[Sir_Crocodile]

David Cameron?

Cameron isn't a millstone around the tory party's neck though - if anything he makes the party look more electable since he's on the left of the party.

On the other hand miliband is not an asset to the labour party, and he and his entire top team is basically Gordon Brown's inner circle, which is always a great thing fot the tories to remind voters about.

 

[nelsonroyale]

Ah, the joys of living in a mediocracy, verging on an idiocracy. Fracking hell... Quite frankly I am interested to see what would happen to England if Scotland does get independence. Seems like neo-liberal cynicism for the next decade at least... Unfortuantely I think we need to a bit of chaos as it seems the only way to rouse the rather docile British electorate.

 

[Nicktendo86]

David Cameron?

Cameron is actually the only leader of the three main parties plus ukip to have a positive approval rating (albelit a small one of +2). Milliband has the lowest (even behind Clegg) with -25.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Dougie is more likely to get conked on the head than Ed. He's in charge of their campaigns, visible enough to provide something of a "fresh start" but not the leader (sacking a leader a year before a GE is basically suicide).

 

[Walshicus]

Cameron is actually the only leader of the three main parties plus ukip to have a positive approval rating (albelit a small one of +2). Milliband has the lowest (even behind Clegg) with -25.

Still find that incredulous. Milliband might be awkward but at least he's not a creep like Cameron.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Still find that incredulous. Milliband might be awkward but at least he's not a creep like Cameron.

I don't think your view could be any more opposite to that of the general public. Cameron is not only the most popular leader, he's also the only one that polls above his party (plus Farage). In this sense, he's the only one that can be said to be an electoral asset rather than a drain (though of course it's not that simple - leaders have a habit of being less popular than the movements they leave, because there's a lot more opportunity for people to impress their own beliefs into a group or movement where as its leaders have definitive views).

 

[Mindwipe]

So far we've received 3 UKIP and 2 BNP leaflets to my flat. Is my address some sort of a racist list, or have traditional parties given up on campaigning?

I honestly think Labour have just decided to cut their losses with the Euros, and save all their campaign budget for the general election.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Still find that incredulous. Milliband might be awkward but at least he's not a creep like Cameron.

He was a key part of the Brown government and never apologises for decisions made by that government. He is also perceived to have no real opinions, bending with the favourable wind to whatever is popular with the public, and then dropping any policy on the matter once it's no longer flavour of the week

Being awkward is the least of his problems. If someone with proper labour convictions like Alan Johnson had stood, Labour would be cruising into an easy majority next year(they'd still do badly in the euros since the country is so eurosceptic).

 

[Nicktendo86]

I honestly think Labour have just decided to cut their losses with the Euros, and save all their campaign budget for the general election.

Had another Tory leaflet yesterday, this one addressed to my wife. Was about Europe.

So far household has had two tory, one ukip (all addressed to us) and one generic Labour. Labour one wasn't about Europe but local issues.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I haven't had a single one, but I live in a new-build apartment complex with a moat and drawbridge so people have to try pretty hard to actually get to my postbox.

In other news, Dan Hodges is even more vitriolic than usual today:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/d...bour-mp-knows-miliband-is-heading-for-defeat/

What we are witnessing is simply political gravity reasserting itself. The party with a reputation for economic competence, and a responsible leader and a clear strategy is slowly but surely moving towards victory.
For four years people have been lying to themselves that party was Labour. Today the lying can finally stop.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Yeah read that earlier. Bit vitriolic as you say but some good stuff.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

I agree with the first two points, but not really the last one. I think people would have naturally gravitated to Labour given some of the earlier coalition missteps, but ed miliband isn't really running a "Labour" party.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Also, Heathrow and Gatwick both gave their proposals for a new runway today. Heathrow's is based on extending their ability to be a hub airport, Gatwick's is on more airport competition and less impact on the surrounding areas. As somehow who lives in central London, I don't really care which one it goes to, as long as they start building soon. We've been talking about it for ages, and we all know it's going to happen eventually. Let's stop fucking about.

 

[jimbor]

Also, Heathrow and Gatwick both gave their proposals for a new runway today. Heathrow's is based on extending their ability to be a hub airport, Gatwick's is on more airport competition and less impact on the surrounding areas. As somehow who lives in central London, I don't really care which one it goes to, as long as they start building soon. We've been talking about it for ages, and we all know it's going to happen eventually. Let's stop fucking about.

I echo this. I'd even settle for the estuary airport, pure in the sky Boris vanity project.

I have no sympathy for any of the Heathrow objectors. They got cheap property for living under flight paths. Fucking deal with it.

 

[WayneMorse]

I haven't had a single one, but I live in a new-build apartment complex with a moat and drawbridge so people have to try pretty hard to actually get to my postbox.

In other news, Dan Hodges is even more vitriolic than usual today:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/d...bour-mp-knows-miliband-is-heading-for-defeat/

Getting a little overconfident now are we?

Look, when Hague was leader there was a brief time in the fall of 2000 where the Tories lead over Labour and they still got their asses whooped in the 2001 election.

Let's wait for a trend and see the MEP election results before declaring a Conservative victory.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Getting a little overconfident now are we?

Look, when Hague was leader there was a brief time in the fall of 2000 where the Tories lead over Labour and they still got their asses whooped in the 2001 election.

Let's wait for a trend and see the MEP election results before declaring a Conservative victory.

Hodges has been saying this for years. Even in the deep, dark days of 10+ poll differences he was making Twitter bets with people that Cam will be PM come 2015. He's nothing if not confident. It takes balls, too, for a columnist, because if he's wrong his reputation is shot to bits. Columnists more even than Premier League football managers rely on their reputations.

 

[WayneMorse]

Hodges has been saying this for years. Even in the deep, dark days of 10+ poll differences he was making Twitter bets with people that Cam will be PM come 2015. He's nothing if not confident. It takes balls, too, for a columnist, because if he's wrong his reputation is shot to bits. Columnists more even than Premier League football managers rely on their reputations.

Yeah and all of those American conservative commentators who predicted a Romney landslide in 2012 have had their reputation in tatters...no wait they're still working for reputable publications and are considered "serious" voices. Columnists can just make shit up nowadays and get away with it.

 

[WayneMorse]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oczj6thd4CY

Oh my god

 

[Nicktendo86]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oczj6thd4CY

Oh my god

Could you please warn before posting it is a BNP video, I'd rather not give them hits thanks

In other news, Milliband has moved onto his next populist policy; football club ownership.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...for-new-rules-on-football-club-ownership.html

 

[Jimmyfenix]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oczj6thd4CY

Oh my god

ew

 

[Zaph]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oczj6thd4CY

Oh my god

I completely lost it at the "militant homosexuals" part.

Fantastic chroma keying too.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Fantastic chroma keying too.

To be fair, that toad like girl was pretty fat. Their "studio" was probably too small to fit her in really, so her shadow kept being ambiently cast on the green screen/giant St Paddy's Day flag they were using as a background.

And Wayne, I feel like it's a little different here. As much as people here like to pretend it is the case, we really don't have an equivalent to Fox News here. As much as people may not like the newspaper's editorial stance, all the political editors even at the Mail are professional, experienced lobby hacks. It's a different world.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Unemployment down to 6.8% now.

And yougov today had Tories and labour dead heat, 34% each.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

YouGov have got Lab/Con at level pegging on 34% each. To compound Labour's misery unemployment went down by 133k over the quarter and the claimant count has continued to fall, by the end of October it will be below 1m if the trend holds. Total employment in the UK hit 30.43m, a record high, and over the last year almost all people who found jobs (employed by someone, not self-employed) were able to find full time work. So much for this supposed boom in zero hours work.

This idea that people aren't feeling the effects of the recovery is complete and utter bullshit. If that were the case Labour would be 10 points clear and be getting ready to form a government next year. The polling is intrinsically linked to the economic picture, as the economy improves and people find jobs, they are much more likely to favour another five years with the current lot than risk an untested PM/CotE with pretty wacky policies. Ed can talk all he likes about individual cases where people have struggled to get by under the current government, or about use of food banks but by and large people are beginning to feel better off than they did in 2008/9 and I figure another 3% GDP growth will push further in that direction.

A solid autumn statement and final budget, as well as a few well laid traps in the comprehensive spending review and Labour will be in real trouble, the 29%+6% strategy might begin to look like a failure.

My prediction is still Lab 30, Con 37, LD 14-18. Con short by 10-12 seats, overall majority if Scotland goes for independence.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I think the 29+6 tactic's worst problem is the 6 aspect. Lib Dems might be disappointed about Clegg's U-Turns, but they aren't immune to the economic benefits that are occuring and I think that'll bring a lot of the flock back when push comes to shove in 2015. I think a lot of Lib Dems will say "Well, the economy is doing well, employment is going up, taxes are going down. This is all more important to me than Trident and Tuition Fees, and no one is offering those things anyway, so why would I vote Lab?"

 

[zomgbbqftw]

A guy at work has been doing some interesting modelling on introducing a significantly higher minimum wage at around £9.50-10.20 per hour taking the lowest wage for a full time employee to £17.5k per year. He says the model means higher prices on low value goods, but it also means a higher skilled economy and the elimination of in-work tax credits. Interestingly, the model points to higher overall employment after a two to three year adjustment period as well as a huge increase in the tax yield, and a new baby boom as having children becomes more affordable.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Zomg do you have some figures on zero hours and percentage of work being full time?

Edit: more bad news for end, boe has increased this years growth forecast.

 

[phisheep]

A guy at work has been doing some interesting modelling on introducing a significantly higher minimum wage at around £9.50-10.20 per hour taking the lowest wage for a full time employee to £17.5k per year. He says the model means higher prices on low value goods, but it also means a higher skilled economy and the elimination of in-work tax credits. Interestingly, the model points to higher overall employment after a two to three year adjustment period as well as a huge increase in the tax yield, and a new baby boom as having children becomes more affordable.

I'm curious about the parameters of this modelling. because my initial reaction is that such a move would spell disaster for very many small businesses, massively increase the black economy and discourage startups.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Not been able to see it, but I hear ed had a rubbish PMQ's.

Particularly of note because the bbc were filming a documentary which will be shown early 2015 (so shortly before the election). Depending on the time/channel it airs, more people may see him being totally inept then usual.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Other news today shows figures on Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants did not come over in massive numbers and numbers have fallen 4000 since January.

UKIP sound a little bit silly now, wonder if this will have any affect on the euro elections?

 

[Walshicus]

UKIP sound a little bit silly now, wonder if this will have any affect on the euro elections?

I'm not sure the kind of person who would think of voting UKIP is really all that interested in facts.

 

[Exterminieren]

Lib Dems going in.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Lib Dems going in.

The top comment (At the moment) there does have a good point:

"So if we're going to these depths should we perhaps mention Lib Dem Mike Hancock, suspended sexual misconduct, Lib Dem Lord Rennard, suspended sexual harassment, Lib Dem councillor Ryan Hope, suspended for child rape, Lib Dem councillor Colin Rosethal, suspended for assault on a child. Does that mean all Lib Dems are sexual predators who go around raping and assaulting children ? No of course it doesn't, that would be ridiculous - That sort of logic only applies to UKIP doesn't it. "

 

[Nicktendo86]

I'm not sure the kind of person who would think of voting UKIP is really all that interested in facts.

Lol true.

And Cyclops you are dead right, UKIP are stuffed full of nutters but there has been a string of lib dems accused of rape and worse, the party needs to take a hard long look at itself.

 

[phisheep]

I'm not sure the kind of person who would think of voting UKIP is really all that interested in facts.

Well, possibly. But they have votes.

I spend a bunch of time explaining to people that voting other than UKIP does not mean surrendering the pound for example.

 

[JonnyBrad]

This seems like as good a place to ask as anywhere.

With the impending rate rises are people thinking of fixing their mortgages? I can get .49% above Lloyds home buyer rate for 4 years if we switch to it now (can't switch banks as self employed - massive pain getting a mortgage)

To me it's a no brainer. Their talking about a .25 rise in Q1 next year as it is.

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

So far we've received 3 UKIP and 2 BNP leaflets to my flat. Is my address some sort of a racist list, or have traditional parties given up on campaigning?

Smaller parties will campaign harder in European elections because the European electoral system allows for more diversity. Having said that, I had no idea the BNP was still a thing... I thought they were still riddled with infighting and a scam over, ironically, European parliamentary funding.

 

[WayneMorse]

Smaller parties will campaign harder in European elections because the European electoral system allows for more diversity. Having said that, I had no idea the BNP was still a thing... I thought they were still riddled with infighting and a scam over, ironically, European parliamentary funding.

Nick Griffin still has his seat in North West England for some reason.

Also if Labour does poorly in the European elections do you think his leadership could be threatened? I don't know who they could replace Miliband with this close to the election.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I think it Douglas Alexander's head which is closest to the chopping block. Labour just don't stiff leaders like the Tories and Lib Dems do. Maybe it's something to do with their very specific voting system, or perhaps it's the fact that since John Smith, only one Labour leader has actually lost an election, but this close to an election makes it even less likely. Wee Dougie, however...

 

[WayneMorse]

I'm glad Miliband is sticking up to the egg throwers now.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Also if Labour does poorly in the European elections do you think his leadership could be threatened? I don't know who they could replace Miliband with this close to the election.

I think it Douglas Alexander's head which is closest to the chopping block. Labour just don't stiff leaders like the Tories and Lib Dems do. Maybe it's something to do with their very specific voting system, or perhaps it's the fact that since John Smith, only one Labour leader has actually lost an election, but this close to an election makes it even less likely. Wee Dougie, however...

I agree, no chance they change their leader within a year of the election unless there is major meltdown.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Party donor stats today are interesting, Tories got a lot more but labour's biggest single donor by far was unite. How anyone can claim they are not in the union's pocket is deluded.

CASH IN:

Tories: £6,662,232
Labour: £4,409,167
LibDems: £1,074,482
SNP: £1,049,789
UKIP: £493,412

Labour got another £1,833,529 in short money.

TOP DONORS:

Unite the Union £1,839,838 Labour
Sir Michael Hintze £1,506,500 Conservative
USDAW: £692,311 Labour
Mr Colin Weir £500,000 SNP
Mrs Christine Weir £500,000 SNP
UNISON £420,049 Labour
Mr James R Lupton £257,500 Conservative
Mr Michael S Farmer £257,500 Conservative
Mr Alexander A Fraser £200,000 Conservative
Mr David Lilley £200,000 Conservative

 

[JesseEwiak]

Party donor stats today are interesting, Tories got a lot more but labour's biggest single donor by far was unite. How anyone can claim they are not in the union's pocket is deluded.

As an American, ignoring the fact I've seen over the past 20 years that shows in no way tha unfortunately Labour isn't in labor's pocket, I wish there was one party in America in labor's pocket instead of two parties both trying to get in Big Business's pocket to push neoliberal and right-wing policies.

 

[Walshicus]

I *wish* they were more in the pockets of the unions. Sadly no evidence of that.

 

[Nicktendo86]

As an American, ignoring the fact I've seen over the past 20 years that shows in no way tha unfortunately Labour isn't in labor's pocket, I wish there was one party in America in labor's pocket instead of two parties both trying to get in Big Business's pocket to push neoliberal and right-wing policies.

Unite are a particular case, there have been controversies over them allegedly rigging elections of labour party candidates, nearly put hundreds of workers out of a job by having an idiotic hard line attitude against the owners of a Scottish petrochemical plant and were the ones who got the current labour leader elected. Both parties have been making noises of cutting ties but in reality that is nonsense, they are by far the party's biggest donor and they are £12 million in debt.

Unions were vital to the workforce of this country but organisations like unite have become lumbering dinosaurs who need go get into the modern world.

 

[JesseEwiak]

Unite are a particular case, there have been controversies over them allegedly rigging elections of labour party candidates, nearly put hundreds of workers out of a job by having an idiotic hard line attitude against the owners of a Scottish petrochemical plant and were the ones who got the current labour leader elected. Both parties have been making noises of cutting ties but in reality that is nonsense, they are by far the party's biggest donor and they are £12 million in debt.

Unions were vital to the workforce of this country but organisations like unite have become lumbering dinosaurs who need go get into the modern world.

Unions are still vital to the 95% of the workforce that isn't making gobs of money. Of course, saying unions "get into the modern world" especially after saying to "unions were vital" signals to me that you're attempting weasel wording for "acquiesce to whatever capital and management wants."

We need radical unions as long as there are radical capitalists who are largely in control of capital.

 

[Nicktendo86]

I don't think a radical union which puts it's member's jobs in danger is a particularly good thing, and declining membership kinda shows that workers agree.

Please don't get me wrong, I am not saying that employers can be trusted 100% at all, we need legislation to protect employees and unions in some form will always be required, but the sort of militant trade unionist methods such as those employed by unison are a thing of the past.

I must also say I am very, very uncomfortable that such a small number of wealthy backers contribute so much to the conservatives. Thankfully though the fact these figures are made public and hopefully that makes cronyism more difficult.

 

[anonymous_abc]

I don't think a radical union which puts it's member's jobs in danger is a particularly good thing, and declining membership kinda shows that workers agree.

Please don't get me wrong, I am not saying that employers can be trusted 100% at all, we need legislation to protect employees and unions in some form will always be required, but the sort of militant trade unionist methods such as those employed by unison are a thing of the past.

I must also say I am very, very uncomfortable that such a small number of wealthy backers contribute so much to the conservatives. Thankfully though the fact these figures are made public and hopefully that makes cronyism more difficult.

What other leverage do workers have then? Nothing militant about going on strike.

 

[CyclopsRock]

What other leverage do workers have then? Nothing militant about going on strike.

There's something militant - literally - about beating up "scabs", though, which is what we had in the past. Now they merely get verbally abused and ostracised from their workplaces, which is much better of course.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

What other leverage do workers have then? Nothing militant about going on strike.

That's not what we mean by militant in the UK, we mean firebombing, bricks through management windows, riots and other general disobedience. Going on strike is, and has never been a major issue. It's annoying and I think some unions like the RMT have massively overplayed their hand to the extent that the Underground is now heading for full automation with ticketing and driverless trains. I don't think many people would take away the right to strike for workers in this country, and neither should they want to. It's the militant tendencies that had to be squashed. Idiot unions and short termism in management destroyed too many industries in this country and the latter has only just begun to change.