UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

CyclopsRock said:
I don't think it's necessarily a matter of insistence - this isn't the first time a part of the UK has left, so there's precedent set for what remains still being the UK. The name might be a bit natty, given there will only be one "Kingdom" left
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Could rename it the NIEWK (pronounced New-K, rather than nuke) for Northern Ireland, England Wales Kingdom.
 
Let's just rename Wale and N.I as England, sure no one would notice/care.

Seriously though all of the problems independence would throw up are mind blowing. I think they would want to keep the UK name and flag, they are almost a brand.
 
Yeah I can't quite get my head around that 9 points, Ashcroft has the Tories up two just a couple of weeks ago, cannot see why there would be a 11 point swing? Polls seem all over the place, yougov had labour up seven, then three, then four.

Good news for them at least in Newark with a 15 point lead over ukip. Still, that is down 12 points from the 2010 GE!
 
QuicheFontaine said:
Edit: Ashcroft has a sample size of 500 after the removal of "don't know"s. Small, but not really small enough to explain the volatility week-to-week.
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About right really. Sample of 500 in something like 30m gives potential swing from sampling of about 11.5 points at a confidence level of 99% (which isn't the confidence level that pollsters would use, but it is the way most people read the polls).
 
Polling is almost completely pointless until right before an election. It only gives a very generalised perspective. Analysing on a poll-to-poll basis is even more pointless.
 
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8bit said:
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The party of inn.
shamelessly stolen from twitter

So the European Commission has today given the UK government some helpful advice on how to do it's job. Some choice quotes:

BBC said:
The European Commission has called on the UK to raise taxes on higher value properties, build more houses and adjust the Help to Buy scheme.

The commission said council tax bands should be revalued, which would put up bills for some people.

The BBC News Channel's chief political correspondent Norman Smith said David Cameron and George Osborne were likely to be "quietly fuming" at the wide-ranging critique of government policies at a time ministers were presenting the economic recovery as a success story.

Aside from the idea that the UK must build more houses, which the government accepts, the rest of the advice was likely "to end up in the bin", he added.

Norman Smith said many Tory backbenchers were already "spoiling for a fight" over Europe and this was likely to make matters worse at a time when the UK was involved in a stand-off over who should lead the Commission.

Douglas Carswell, the MP for Clacton, told The Times that an unelected group of officials could not tell the UK how to spend its money while colleague Dominic Raab said the chancellor should treat the Commission's advice as "spam when it arrives in his inbox".
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I know they do this every year, but advising the UK on how to get it's economy going at a time when we have some of the highest growth in the western world and the eurozone is still in the toilet is a bit funny. Also I just don't agree on their stance on council tax. I know how unpopular it was but I still think the poll tax was a good idea, council tax is to pay for council services and I just do not get the link between property prices and services. Surely those who use the most (create the most rubbish etc) should make a larger contribution? I get the argument for those better off needed to make a bigger contribution towards the community, but I don't see why council tax should be for that. If you want to debate the lib dem's mansion tax, or argue to increase stamp duty, fine, but why should someone pay more council tax just because their property price has gone up?
 
Nicktendo86 said:
I know they do this every year, but advising the UK on how to get it's economy going at a time when we have some of the highest growth in the western world and the eurozone is still in the toilet is a bit funny. Also I just don't agree on their stance on council tax. I know how unpopular it was but I still think the poll tax was a good idea, council tax is to pay for council services and I just do not get the link between property prices and services. Surely those who use the most (create the most rubbish etc) should make a larger contribution? I get the argument for those better off needed to make a bigger contribution towards the community, but I don't see why council tax should be for that. If you want to debate the lib dem's mansion tax, or argue to increase stamp duty, fine, but why should someone pay more council tax just because their property price has gone up?
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That really is not the way I read it.
Each year the commission offers member states advice intended to help ensure long-term growth.
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Generally speaking, council tax is tremendously regressive and, yup, a poll tax is a much more appropriate way of doing it. In my old flat, there were 4 of us living there, and directly above us in the same floor plan there were 2 people. Yet we paid the same council tax - but we probably threw away double the rubbish, were twice as likely to use local resources like parks and swimming pools, twice as likely to throw up on the street that needs cleaning (who am I kidding - more like four times as likely, on week days anyway) etc. It's barmy that we paid the same. Similarly, the value of the property a) has nothing to do with the amount you use local services and b) is a very clumsy way of graduating the cost because there link between the value of property and the ability of the tenants to pay is fairly weak. For example, that aforementioned flat was probably worth about a million quid because it was a 4 bedroom flat in a Georgian terrace in the middle of Clerkenwell - but we rented it! We didn't own that property, and likewise, people who keep their house and have seen its value rocket will have property worth a lot which doesn't necessarily match their income - of course, this is why they use the bands from 1992 (or whatever) but THAT'S silly too because obviously different areas change value at different times.

I think, if council tax were a locally levied income tax (or was funded entirely from central taxation) and someone then suggested the system we have now, everyone would laugh at them and tell them to take their special pills. It's an awful system.

Not that this has anything to do with the EU's recommendations. Whatever, they're free to recommend whatever they want. I don't suppose Georgie boy will be losing much sleep over it, especially after the IMF thing.
 
If you thought the cards were already stacked against David Cameron in renegotiating Britain's relationship with Brussels while also blocking Jean-Claude Juncker as the next European Commission President, well.... soon the prime minister could be dealt an even trickier hand.

The European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) in the European Parliament meet on Wednesday - this is the group the Conservatives set up when they left the umbrella centre-right bloc the EPP, which was regarded by them as being too federalist and committed to ever closer union.

The new group has been very keen to acquire new members in order to boost funding and influence.

But its members now face a dilemma.

The seven MEPs elected from the Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party have knocked at the door and asked to join.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27685195

What new Groups form and who joins what group will be interesting to see in the new EP.
 
I think he has already succeeded in stopping JCJ, Merkel is sounding out Christine Lagarde and other candidates.

The Tories don't have a majority within the ECR, they could all vote against AfD joining and they would still be able join the ECR group. I expect that will happen to give Cameron enough cover to show his party did what it could.

His whole, "get a federalist and Britain leaves" ploy worked very well. Not least because I could see it happen. The people of this country voted for less Europe, not more. The same holds true in many major EU nations. Even Germany have got Eurosceptic, anti-federalist representatives for the first time. The EU cannot afford to ignore the will of the people and put JCJ into the presidency or the mainstream parties will suffer at the ballot box next time around and in more engaged countries in other elections as well.
 
zomgbbqftw said:
I think he has already succeeded in stopping JCJ, Merkel is sounding out Christine Lagarde and other candidates.

The Tories don't have a majority within the ECR, they could all vote against AfD joining and they would still be able join the ECR group. I expect that will happen to give Cameron enough cover to show his party did what it could.

His whole, "get a federalist and Britain leaves" ploy worked very well. Not least because I could see it happen. The people of this country voted for less Europe, not more. The same holds true in many major EU nations. Even Germany have got Eurosceptic, anti-federalist representatives for the first time. The EU cannot afford to ignore the will of the people and put JCJ into the presidency or the mainstream parties will suffer at the ballot box next time around and in more engaged countries in other elections as well.
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That is the reason JCJ will get the job.
 
Darling's been at the Brasso again...

(Alex Salmond)
Alistair Darling said:
said on the BBC that people voted Ukip in Scotland because English TV was being beamed into Scotland. This was a North Korean response. This is something that Kim Jong-il would say. And this is the same BBC for which we all pay our licence fee, and we all enjoy the national output as well as the Scottish output.
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http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/06/alistair-darling-interview-salmond-behaving-kim-jong-il
 
Lib Dems and Labour having informal talks, I don't think anyone should really be surprised but this paragraph caught my attention:

BBC said:
But one member of the group admits at least that the parties' common ground on the European Union was discussed.

The group was brought together for a discussion because of "mutual concern over Europe", BBC Newsnight has been told. And the programme understands a wider range of issues was discussed.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27708375

Wouldn't it be hilarious if morons vote UKIP in droves, split the Tory vote, and we end up with Europhile Labour/Lib Dem government. Terrible, but hilarious.
 
8bit said:
Darling's been at the Brasso again...

(Alex Salmond)

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/06/alistair-darling-interview-salmond-behaving-kim-jong-il
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The new statesman have retracted the article lol.

http://order-order.com/2014/06/05/new-statesman-retracts-false-darling-nazi-quote/

Guido Fawkes said:
New Statesman editor Jason Cowley has an interview with Alistair Darling as his splash this week. Discussing Alex Salmond and the SNP, Cowley runs a series of explosive quotes from Darling, including quoting Darling as describing the SNP’s ideology as “blood and soil nationalism”. Given that Blood and Soil is an ideology most famously used by the Nazis in 1930s Germany, cybernats jumped on the comment.

Just one problem: Darling never actually said those words. I’m fact, it was the interviewer who used the words “blood and soil”, not him.
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Edit: I mean they retracted the Nazi quote, not the article. Apologies.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
The new statesman have retracted the article lol.

http://order-order.com/2014/06/05/new-statesman-retracts-false-darling-nazi-quote/



Edit: I mean they retracted the Nazi quote, not the article. Apologies.
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Yeah, it does seem he was baited by Cowley. Still, I think mangling the point about the BBC & UKIP and drawing a comparison to NK's dear leader isn't really the sort of thing he should be saying while calling for fair and measured debate. It is possible the whole thing was transcribed while drunk though and he said none of that and New Statesmen's editor needs to take some time out.
 
8bit said:
Yeah, it does seem he was baited by Cowley. Still, I think mangling the point about the BBC & UKIP and drawing a comparison to NK's dear leader isn't really the sort of thing he should be saying while calling for fair and measured debate. It is possible the whole thing was transcribed while drunk though and he said none of that and New Statesmen's editor needs to take some time out.
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Salmond shouldn't blame UKIP voting on the BBC either really.
 
Tories win Newark. Labour seem unlikely to get a decent swing which should worry them. And early indications suggests lib den massacre, possibly as low as 2%. Aww fuck.
 
Was Newark considered a safe Conservative seat?

Lib-Dems must be close to crisis mode now, the past few weeks haven't been kind.
 
8bit said:
Was Newark considered a safe Conservative seat?

Lib-Dems must be close to crisis mode now, the past few weeks haven't been kind.
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Yes very safe. Apparently they were saying privately a victory of +10% would be OK but less than that would be worried so they must be happy with 19%.
 
CyclopsRock said:
Tories win Newark. Labour seem unlikely to get a decent swing which should worry them. And early indications suggests lib den massacre, possibly as low as 2%. Aww fuck.
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Even the Tories are admitting the Labour and Lib Dem vote turned to them to keep UKIP out.
 
First time in 25 years the Tories have won a by election whilst in power. Bad night for labour, their vote share went down whilst being the main opposition party which must be unheard of!
 
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