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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

K

kmag

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
First time in 25 years the Tories have won a by election whilst in power. Bad night for labour, their vote share went down whilst being the main opposition party which must be unheard of!
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It's a poor result for Labour, but the Tories threw the kitchen sink at this (300+ MP visits, 4 visits by the PM, and allegations that they broke the £100,000 spending limit) by-election and even they are admitting that the other parties votes broke towards them as an anti-UKIP vote. Although the boundary changes were in effect in the 2010 they've probably settled at bit more towards the Tories (a Labour leaning ward was removed and a very safe Tory ward was added) as this time Labour didn't have the incumbency effect.

I'm not saying it's a good or even ok result for Labour but it's not particularly devastating.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
Source for Tories admitting that? All I've read is labour people claiming it...

Glad Fararge missed his target of winning 30%, and by some margin. Wonder what would have happened had he not bottled it and stood himself?

Edit: oh and I've read a lib dem say people voted tactically. Lol.
 
S

Sir_Crocodile

Member
Labour really need to ditch Miliband and bring in Darling as leader. Both to help shore up Labour support, and to ensure that all those Scottish seats remain past the independence vote.
 
W

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
Sir_Crocodile said:
Labour really need to ditch Miliband and bring in Darling as leader. Both to help shore up Labour support, and to ensure that all those Scottish seats remain past the independence vote.
Click to expand...

Nope, too late for any changes.

The narrative of this by-election was all about UKIP and I wouldn't be very surprised if it was majorly affected by tactical voting. Ergo, I don't think there is too much to take from it . That said, the Conservatives still would have been elected were it a more usual election and the Lib Dems would have still been massacred. The Labour and UKIP vote shares were the ones affected most by it, I'd wager.
 
8

8bit

Knows the Score
Darling? Really? As lesser of two evils he might be a good choice, I wouldn't say he's doing that well with his Scotland job right now.
 
S

Sir_Crocodile

Member
vcassano1 said:
Nope, too late for any changes.

The narrative of this by-election was all about UKIP and I wouldn't be very surprised if it was majorly affected by tactical voting. Ergo, I don't think there is too much to take from it .
Click to expand...

I'd be surprised if a notable number of Labour supporters switched to the conservatives.

8bit said:
Darling? Really? As lesser of two evils he might be a good choice, I wouldn't say he's doing that well with his Scotland job right now.
Click to expand...

Who else is there?
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
I think I read this is the 9th by election since 2010 in which the lib dems have lost their deposit! They are going to get killed next year.
 
K

kmag

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
Source for Tories admitting that? All I've read is labour people claiming it...

Glad Fararge missed his target of winning 30%, and by some margin. Wonder what would have happened had he not bottled it and stood himself?

Edit: oh and I've read a lib dem say people voted tactically. Lol.
Click to expand...

One of the editors of Conservative Home was banging on about it and how UKIP may have finally detoxified the Conservative brand.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
Some pretty good stuff from the IMF today, mixed with the usual worry of houring bubbles.

BBC said:
The Fund's annual health check of the UK economy found it has "rebounded strongly and growth is becoming more balanced" adding economic growth would "remain strong this year."

It is a significant turnaround from last year when the IMF's chief economist Oliver Blanchard appeared to have a public falling out with the chancellor after he criticised the government's austerity policies.

This year IMF managing director Christine Lagarde admitted the Fund "got it wrong" in its assessment adding that while the UK's economic recovery began with consumer spending, it was now rebalancing towards an "investment-led recovery".
Click to expand...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27731567
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Even *if* the Tories got a lot of support from anti-Ukip tactical votes, it's not really a big deal, as there's not much reason to think that this wouldn't happen in a 2015 too.
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Sir_Crocodile said:
Labour really need to ditch Miliband and bring in Darling as leader. Both to help shore up Labour support, and to ensure that all those Scottish seats remain past the independence vote.
Click to expand...

I think Darling would do a good job, but isn't it rather risky to install a scot as leader with the referendum coming up since there's a risk, however slight it may be, that the NIEWK would end up with a foreign Prime Minister. Which I imagine would be constitutionally rather taxing.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
Bo-Locks said:
Has there ever been a worse by-election for the opposition party in history?

4xQtqX6.png
Click to expand...
Yes because only labour is an opposition party....
 
S

Sir_Crocodile

Member
phisheep said:
I think Darling would do a good job, but isn't it rather risky to install a scot as leader with the referendum coming up since there's a risk, however slight it may be, that the NIEWK would end up with a foreign Prime Minister. Which I imagine would be constitutionally rather taxing.
Click to expand...

True. It's a shame since he's pretty much the only big hitter in the labour party who's not overly tarred by being a blair minister, and he's one of the very few to stand up to brown when he was prime minister.

FliXFantatier said:
Yes because only labour is an opposition party....
Click to expand...

Yes, only Labour is THE Opposition party.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Her_Majesty's_Most_Loyal_Opposition_(United_Kingdom)
 
K

kitch9

Banned
phisheep said:
I think Darling would do a good job, but isn't it rather risky to install a scot as leader with the referendum coming up since there's a risk, however slight it may be, that the NIEWK would end up with a foreign Prime Minister. Which I imagine would be constitutionally rather taxing.
Click to expand...

Darling would be a good Labour leader, they need to get rid of Ed stat.
 
W

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
WayneMorse said:
Why didn't Darling stand for leader in 2010?
Click to expand...

He wanted to step out of the limelight, I think. I don't think he had any serious chance of reaching the leadership, anyway.

Lots of talk about the Newark Conservative campaign breaching electoral spending limits. Watch nothing happen about that ;) .
 
D

dc89

Member
I'm trying to speak to the income tax department at HMRC. 40 minutes on hold so far, not spoke to a person yet.

You wouldn't think that they are taxing my gf too much. We're doing stints on the phone as our phone doesn't have speaker -.-
 
K

kitch9

Banned
dc89 said:
I'm trying to speak to the income tax department at HMRC. 40 minutes on hold so far, not spoke to a person yet.

You wouldn't think that they are taxing my gf too much. We're doing stints on the phone as our phone doesn't have speaker -.-
Click to expand...

Ring early on a Monday. Don't ring at the weekend.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
This ties into zomg's theory that ukip will park their bus on labour's turf next year...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10792422/Labours-working-class-support-died.html

Telegraph said:
Labour’s working class support has “died” as the party becomes “very middle class”, an advisor to Ed Miliband has said.
Lord Glasman, the policy guru ennobled by Mr Miliband, said Labour voters who defected to Ukip may never return because the party is failing to address concerns on welfare and immigration.
He told The Times: "That is the dilemma at the heart of the party's strategy — is it possible to address these economic, political and cultural concerns when the party is becoming, in many ways, very middle class? What I mean by that is liberal and progressive in its sensibility.”
"Ed [Miliband] is trying to address it. This is a long-term trend since 2001, in terms of the working-class vote just declining quite dramatically. The Labour middle-class vote held up [in 2010]. It was the working-class vote that died.
“These are often people who are earning, who have jobs, but they don't see Labour as representing their interests."
Click to expand...
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
Daily mail so pinch of salt etc etc but if true, fml. Labour going back to bad old days of the 70's.

DM said:
Secret Labour plans for a multi-billion-pound package of new ‘property wealth taxes’ to hammer London and the well-to-do counties of southern England were leaked last night.

The Tories claim the proposals fly in the face of Ed Miliband’s claim to be a ‘one-nation’ leader and would only exacerbate the so-called ‘cost of living crisis’.

Tellingly, the report commissioned by Mr Miliband which contains details of the ‘triple tax whammy’ is marked ‘very sensitive’. It would mean that if he wins power in next year’s General Election:

All shop owners would be forced to pay a new ‘property owner’s tax’ separate from existing business rates – and on top of existing income tax.
Emergency laws would impose a new ‘business tax’ on firms in every prosperous city and town in England – backdated to before the election – to fund tax handouts to less well-off areas.
And a new £500 million ‘farm tax’ would be introduced by scrapping the exemption from business rates that has applied to agricultural land and buildings since 1929.
Click to expand...
 
K

kitch9

Banned
Nicktendo86 said:
Daily mail so pinch of salt etc etc but if true, fml. Labour going back to bad old days of the 70's.
Click to expand...

Political suicide that. The last people they should go after is SMEs and Farms. (WTF!) Only a blithering idiot would consider it.

Saying that, it is Balls and Miliband.
 
W

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
Whether or not it is stupid, at least it is something different. We don't need two Conservative parties. A genuine choice is better for everyone.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
A choice that will squeeze shop owners and farmers further than they already are in order to shore up support in your heartlands is no choice at all.
 
W

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
Actual ideological variation would be a nice thing to see. There are clearly many (how many is difficult to say) who lean economically more left than all three main parties currently provide. This would offer something for them, potentially.

Currently all three parties are socially liberal (in their leadership) and economically centre-right, with minor variation within that. I think the main distinguishing factor is the appearance of competence. It is better for everyone if a wider spectrum of ideas are represented by the major parties. Almost every position benefits some and disadvantages others; albeit to varying extents. It is democratically better if there is a greater sense of choice for the electorate. The same applies to UKIP, who offer a more right-wing option than the main parties - I dislike them almost entirely, but if some people do support these ideas, it is good that they can electorally express themselves.

There are a lot of generalisations there because we are currently talking about vague ideas and suggestions.
 
J

JonnyBrad

Member
vcassano1 said:
Whether or not it is stupid, at least it is something different. We don't need two Conservative parties. A genuine choice is better for everyone.
Click to expand...

There's choice and then their is batshit crazy.

If they go to the electorate with a policy of back dating a tax on things like newsagents and farmers only in some areas of the country they will get wiped out.

Which is why I'd assume its DM scaremongering.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Well it's worth noting that that's just a policy report, not unannounced policy itself. It may well be that Ed has no intention of doing any of that stuff - but if he did, it wouldn't be the first time a politician clobbered those who were never going to vote for them anyway in exchange for more votes in more contentious areas.
 
K

kitch9

Banned
vcassano1 said:
Whether or not it is stupid, at least it is something different. We don't need two Conservative parties. A genuine choice is better for everyone.
Click to expand...

They should go after the likes of Amazon and Google, not SMEs and the guys who make our food.

If the larger multi nationals refuse to pay corporation tax they should be hit with a levy so at least everyone else has the chance to be competitive. Not that the eu would allow it.
 
M

Maledict

Member
CyclopsRock said:
Well it's worth noting that that's just a policy report, not unannounced policy itself. It may well be that Ed has no intention of doing any of that stuff - but if he did, it wouldn't be the first time a politician clobbered those who were never going to vote for them anyway in exchange for more votes in more contentious areas.
Click to expand...

Other than the fact that Labour has a massive hold on London so why on earth would they do something this insane?

Sorry, but the entire thing smells fishy as hell and coming from the "Red Ed" newspaper that's been non-stop in its attacks for the last year now makes me think this entire thing is a pile of rubbish. Are we expected to believe that a party that is struggling to even find it's voice, that manages to bugger up the incredibly popular "re-nationalise the railways" message, is planning a bevy of suicidal taxes that even a lefty like myself would find repugnant and insane out of nowhere?

It doesn't pass the sniff test. At all.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Maledict said:
Other than the fact that Labour has a massive hold on London so why on earth would they do something this insane?

Sorry, but the entire thing smells fishy as hell and coming from the "Red Ed" newspaper that's been non-stop in its attacks for the last year now makes me think this entire thing is a pile of rubbish. Are we expected to believe that a party that is struggling to even find it's voice, that manages to bugger up the incredibly popular "re-nationalise the railways" message, is planning a bevy of suicidal taxes that even a lefty like myself would find repugnant and insane out of nowhere?

It doesn't pass the sniff test. At all.
Click to expand...

Well like I said, the report can be real and it still not translate into policy.
 
W

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
kitch9 said:
They should go after the likes of Amazon and Google, not SMEs and the guys who make our food.

If the larger multi nationals refuse to pay corporation tax they should be hit with a levy so at least everyone else has the chance to be competitive. Not that the eu would allow it.
Click to expand...

I was not at all supporting the idea... Just saying that a general more left-wing, tax-and-spend approach would at least be a difference. It isn't a reliable source in any way, shape or form, so it isn't really worth discussing the specifics in my opinion.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
Good manufacturing confidence levels, just more fuel to the fire of decent economic performance. Nothing really surprising.

BBC said:
More UK manufacturers are confident about their growth prospects over the next three months than at any time since the financial crisis, according to their industry body, the EEF.

Its survey of 275 firms, done during April and May, found a balance of 34% of manufacturers expected their output growth to improve in the next quarter.

This is the highest level since the third quarter of 2007.

Manufacturers now expect 3.6% growth in 2014, up from 2.7% three months ago.
Click to expand...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27757947

In other news, I hope Farage doesn't try to kick me out of the country, mum has been doing our family tree and found that we emigrated from Belgium in the 1700's! Flemish weavers apparently. Love family history stuff.
Knew my family came from that part of the world as mother's maiden name is Doel :p
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
Good manufacturing confidence levels, just more fuel to the fire of decent economic performance. Nothing really surprising.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27757947

In other news, I hope Farage doesn't try to kick me out of the country, mum has been doing our family tree and found that we emigrated from Belgium in the 1700's! Flemish weavers apparently. Love family history stuff.
Knew my family came from that part of the world as mother's maiden name is Doel :p
Click to expand...

I don't think Farage considers Belgium to be a "real country". Maybe you could apply to stay on that basis?
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
Nicktendo86 said:
Good manufacturing confidence levels, just more fuel to the fire of decent economic performance. Nothing really surprising.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27757947
Click to expand...

It was higher than that at 4.4% YoY growth. Massive numbers. Oil and gas output dragged the wider industrial production figures down as usual, but the narrower manufacturing production figures were very, very strong. Mix of domestic and overseas demand which means it's sustainable as well. The overseas demand seems to be from outside the EU as well which, again, is another sign that the UK is in a stronger position than before the crisis.

Overall the recovery is getting stronger and more sustainable every month. We are really heading into danger territory for Labour. If this level of economic growth can be sustained (and I don't see why it couldn't) for another year I don't see a route for Labour to win. People won't want to hand over a recovering economy to an untested team who's policies are all populist and overtly vote-winning.

On another positive note, year-on-year manufacturing growth was faster than overall economic growth, increasing the proportion of the economy made up of manufacturing output. Something people said would be impossible a few years ago.
 
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