Support NeoGAF

[8bit]

I'll mail you anything you want from Greggs if he even gets back in (even under a coalition) again. Cameron's a 1-termer history students won't even remember in a decade.

Do you think he'll be replaced or that Labour will lead?

(Do they still do Ham Big Softies?)

 

[CyclopsRock]

I'll mail you anything you want from Greggs if he even gets back in (even under a coalition) again. Cameron's a 1-termer history students won't even remember in a decade.

Come on, a tenner over Paypal. I'm good for it, I have a job and everything! Imo Cam will be PM after the next election. I'm not certain, but I think it's slightly more likely than the other options.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Jesus, this party are in no shape to govern.

His frustrations at the failure of Ed Miliband’s office to use the policy review for developing policy, rather than conveniently kicking tough policy decisions further down the road, have been an open secret within the shadow cabinet for months now. “Cruddas is losing patience with Ed,” one shadow cabinet member told me recently, “something’s going to give soon.”
Today it has. There are a number of reasons why Labour’s manifesto development has hit the buffers in such a spectacular way.
One is that it is just the latest example of something that I wrote about last week, which is the way Labour is already entering the post-Miliband era. For some Labour insiders, this is the cue to start maneuvering for next year’s leadership election. For others – Cruddas is in this latter camp – it’s about salvaging what they can from the wreckage.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/d...ours-dead-hand-is-ed-milibands-and-his-alone/

 

[anonymous_abc]

Assuming this is all true (And I expect it is), then maaaan:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffee...amerons-most-important-eu-speech-of-the-year/

Shit's getting real.

Nice.


I would like to take the opportunity to advertise the new EU poliGAF.

 

[8bit]

West Lothian Question goes back in the box.

Plans to restrict the voting rights of Scottish MPs at Westminster have been scrapped after splits emerged in the UK government before September's independence referendum.

Senior sources say the coalition has dropped plans to tackle the so-called West Lothian question because of fears it could fuel Scottish resentment, but also because the Tories and Lib Dems cannot agree on whether voting restrictions on MPs are fair.

Moves to restrict Scottish MPs' votes – by limiting their rights to vote on England-only legislation – have also been fought off by Labour and by senior Lib Dem figures, who plan to increase devolution to major cities and regions within England.

Ed Miliband is to unveil proposals this week to devolve £30bn in funding to English cities and regions if Labour wins the 2015 general election, to increase the spending and policy-making powers of cities such as Manchester and Birmingham. The strategy is due to include housing, the economy and employment policy.

The government is expected to hand major new economic powers as part of Nick Clegg's "city deals" programme to Glasgow, the UK's second-largest city outside London and the first to be given those powers outside England, later this week.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-restrict-scottish-mps-voting-rights-scrapped

(Glasgow must have grown substantially since I left.)

 

[kmag]

West Lothian Question goes back in the box.



http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-restrict-scottish-mps-voting-rights-scrapped

(Glasgow must have grown substantially since I left.)

Glasgow would be 5th on the ONS Urban area list but that has some frankly bizarre definitions of what the Urban area is, including Bradford (9 miles) and Huddersfield (20 miles from Leeds) in with Leeds but not East Kilbride (10 miles) and Hamilton (12 miles) in with Glasgow.

As a city itself, Glasgow (801,198) would be in 3rd place after Birmingham (1,224,136).

 

[CyclopsRock]

I think it's best to put the WLQ back in the box til after the referendum. In fact, it should be put back in the box til after any sort of devolution agreement (be it full independence or further devolution in the event of a no vote). Any sort of solution to the problem would be better wrapped up in those discussions rather than trying to solve a problem now that's going to change in the next few years.

 

[kmag]

I think it's best to put the WLQ back in the box til after the referendum. In fact, it should be put back in the box til after any sort of devolution agreement (be it full independence or further devolution in the event of a no vote). Any sort of solution to the problem would be better wrapped up in those discussions rather than trying to solve a problem now that's going to change in the next few years.

Wait a minute. Isn't that an unknown? But Better Together has clearly explained that the only unknowns are post-independence.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Wait a minute. Isn't that an unknown? But Better Together has clearly explained that the only unknowns are post-independence.

Well yar, because they're all related to independence, not further devolution. The major unknowns are about the currency and foreign affairs (inc Nato and the EU), none of which are relevant with devolution rather than independence...

 

[CyclopsRock]

I'm putting this in here because it relates specifically to the UK's involvement in the EU. From everyone's friend, Dan Hodges:

"Cameron has managed to position himself as someone who is genuine sceptical about Europe, as opposed to a Eurosceptic. He believes in Europe. He instinctively wants Britain to remain part of Europe. But he’s no longer prepared to overlook Europe’s manifest flaws, and if Europe cannot be reformed he believes Britain will have no option but to leave.

That leaves Nigel Farage, with his toxic brand of Europhobia, and the hard-core Tory Eurosceptics, with their own unreconstructed Euro mania, on the extreme Right of the debate. On the extreme Left sit Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband, their own hard-core Europhilia becoming dangerously contaminated by their refusal to support giving the voters a voice in 2017.

And in the middle sits Cameron. Alongside I suspect, a majority of the British people. He may have lost the battle of Ypres. But the centre held."

I think that's fairly sound analysis. It's undeniable that our population is more on the Eurosceptic side than the Europhilic side, though not to anything like the extreme that back bench Tories think. I also think that the idea of a referendum is broadly popular amongst people of all views regarding the EU. I believe that Cameron is genuine when he says he wants to stay in but not without reform. I think, in terms of popular opinion, this puts him in a pretty good position.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I'ma keep going. Here's some interesting polling from Ashcroft's latest round of fun. He has the Tories up 2% nationally (but his most recent marginal poll showed them down where it matters). But this is interesting...

Specifically the UKIP column.

 

[JonnyBrad]

Also the latest poll that Guido put up from Ashcroft.

"Tories go ahead in Ashcroft polling Con 33% Lab 31% Lib 9% UKIP 15%."

Christ.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Also the latest poll that Guido put up from Ashcroft.

"Tories go ahead in Ashcroft polling Con 33% Lab 31% Lib 9% UKIP 15%."

Christ.

Tories were behind by 9% yesterday though, so who knows. Lib Dems and UKIP, though, are pretty static at their 15 and 9% values. UHOH!

 

[Nicktendo86]

Polls are all over the place, up and down constantly. I really think those ukip voters will be key, could sway it in the end.

 

[CyclopsRock]

IMO Ed's insistence that he doesn't care what the people think re: the EU is going to have big repercussions when UKIP voters are forced to make a choice next year.

 

[kitch9]

IMO Ed's insistence that he doesn't care what the people think re: the EU is going to have big repercussions when UKIP voters are forced to make a choice next year.

Labour will lose the election because of it. Up North the immigration issue is massive.

 

[Jezbollah]

Polls are all over the place, up and down constantly. I really think those ukip voters will be key, could sway it in the end.

Especially when the UKIP manifesto comes out. I think that will be the defining moment of the entire election.

 

[pulsemyne]

Glenda jackson destroying IDS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Jckm3X5MXo

 

[kitch9]

Glenda jackson destroying IDS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Jckm3X5MXo

I'm not Labours biggest fan at the minute, but I agree with them on this subject.

Gp's should deem someone unfit to work initially and at that point the benefit should kick in until the claimant has been fully through the assessment process including any appeals.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I'm not Labours biggest fan at the minute, but I agree with them on this subject.

Gp's should deem someone unfit to work initially and at that point the benefit should kick in until the claimant has been fully through the assessment process including any appeals.

That seems perfectly reasonable to me. Aren't GPs able to make such an assessment anyway? I mean, if I took extended sick leave from work, I'd only need a doctor's note to justify my absence.

 

[CyclopsRock]

That seems perfectly reasonable to me. Aren't GPs able to make such an assessment anyway? I mean, if I took extended sick leave from work, I'd only need a doctor's note to justify my absence.

I think it's a bit confused because whilst a doctor can state how much mobility one has or what the repercussions of 5 hours of lifting boxes might be, that doesn't mean they have the knowledge to tell whether someone can get a job around that. If a person does their back in and struggles to walk but they have a law degree, are they still able to get work or not? I don't think that's a call that a doctor should be making; their expertise is in the medical condition, but I think it should be on someone else to decide the repercussions of that in terms of disability allowance etc.

 

[Nicktendo86]

So more good economic news today, manufacturing is 'flourishing'.

The latest Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the sector was 57.5, up from 57.0 in May.

A reading above 50 indicates that the sector is expanding.

Markit said the sector continued to "flourish", with jobs being created at the fastest pace for more than three years.

The survey results add to signs that the UK's economic recovery is becoming more balanced.

The latest official GDP figures, released on Friday, confirmed that the economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of the year and recorded the fastest expansion in business investment in two years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28106368

Also a couple of embarrassments for Labour today, Ed Miliband was supposed to day in a speech today that 4/5 jobs created since 2010 are in London. Problem is, he is going by two year old figures and the facts today are the opposite, 3/4 of jobs are coming from outside London.

Second, Rachel Reeves denied that she said is would be better if benefits changes by this government would be reversed and all benefits are universal. Turns out they have her on tape saying those comments. Woops.

 

[kitch9]

So more good economic news today, manufacturing is 'flourishing'.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28106368

Also a couple of embarrassments for Labour today, Ed Miliband was supposed to day in a speech today that 4/5 jobs created since 2010 are in London. Problem is, he is going by two year old figures and the facts today are the opposite, 3/4 of jobs are coming from outside London.

Second, Rachel Reeves denied that she said is would be better if benefits changes by this government would be reversed and all benefits are universal. Turns out they have her on tape saying those comments. Woops.

Its ok, he'll mumble on about the "cost of living crisis" instead, or something.

 

[kitch9]

That seems perfectly reasonable to me. Aren't GPs able to make such an assessment anyway? I mean, if I took extended sick leave from work, I'd only need a doctor's note to justify my absence.

If anything it would put pressure on making sure assessments are done quicker.

 

[jimbor]

I think it's a bit confused because whilst a doctor can state how much mobility one has or what the repercussions of 5 hours of lifting boxes might be, that doesn't mean they have the knowledge to tell whether someone can get a job around that. If a person does their back in and struggles to walk but they have a law degree, are they still able to get work or not? I don't think that's a call that a doctor should be making; their expertise is in the medical condition, but I think it should be on someone else to decide the repercussions of that in terms of disability allowance etc.

By most reports, it didn't seem like ATOS had the knowledge either.

 

[Walshicus]

I think it's a bit confused because whilst a doctor can state how much mobility one has or what the repercussions of 5 hours of lifting boxes might be, that doesn't mean they have the knowledge to tell whether someone can get a job around that. If a person does their back in and struggles to walk but they have a law degree, are they still able to get work or not? I don't think that's a call that a doctor should be making; their expertise is in the medical condition, but I think it should be on someone else to decide the repercussions of that in terms of disability allowance etc.

The alternative is to give that judgement to an organisation which will be targeted to *reduce* the overall cost rather than increase the *accuracy* of assessment!

We've seen the mess that's come from letting people who aren't Health Professionals have this kind of authority.



EDIT: I see that the BBC are doing good work as UKIP's PR agents again.

 

[CyclopsRock]

The alternative is to give that judgement to an organisation which will be targeted to *reduce* the overall cost rather than increase the *accuracy* of assessment!

We've seen the mess that's come from letting people who aren't Health Professionals have this kind of authority.

But that's a different problem. The fact that ATOS were given a) the wrong objectives and b) without having the requisite knowledge doesn't suddenly mean that doctors do have that knowledge.

 

[Walshicus]

Well it's all well and good saying that (and I don't really agree) but *who* would have the expertise to judge capacity to work if *not* doctors?

 

[CyclopsRock]

Well it's all well and good saying that (and I don't really agree) but *who* would have the expertise to judge capacity to work if *not* doctors?

A more competent version of ATOS. Doctors should state exactly what the person's physical and mental capabilities - so you don't have mythical Atos 2.0 making people walk across a room and ticking the "fit to work" box - but then someone with a knowledge of the local job market to look at the doctor's report vs the person's skills and decide whether it's practical for the person to get a job. The doctor shouldn't be doing the 2nd half of that process.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I think it's a bit confused because whilst a doctor can state how much mobility one has or what the repercussions of 5 hours of lifting boxes might be, that doesn't mean they have the knowledge to tell whether someone can get a job around that. If a person does their back in and struggles to walk but they have a law degree, are they still able to get work or not? I don't think that's a call that a doctor should be making; their expertise is in the medical condition, but I think it should be on someone else to decide the repercussions of that in terms of disability allowance etc.

The point was more about when benefits come in. I wasn't suggesting that GP's do the full assessment, just that receiving a doctor's note of sufficient seriousness should give rise to a presumption that you can't work and benefits are paid out straight away. An assessment as to whether there are any jobs you can do can be done at a later date, and it may well be that arrangements need to be made (to allow you to work from home, etc.), but benefits should continue to be paid while those arrangements are made.

 

[CyclopsRock]

The point was more about when benefits come in. I wasn't suggesting that GP's do the full assessment, just that receiving a doctor's note of sufficient seriousness should give rise to a presumption that you can't work and benefits are paid out straight away. An assessment as to whether there are any jobs you can do can be done at a later date, and it may well be that arrangements need to be made (to allow you to work from home, etc.), but benefits should continue to be paid while those arrangements are made.

Aah! Agree entirely.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Construction hiring hutsball time record highs today, good news especially for those who say we need to build more homes.

 

[jimbor]

Construction hiring hutsball time record highs today, good news especially for those who say we need to build more homes.

Hutsball?

I work in construction, London is busy as fuck at the moment.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Hutsball?

I work in construction, London is busy as fuck at the moment.

I walk to work every day, it takes about 45 minutes through central London. I feel like half my journey is under canopies and scaffolding.

 

[jimbor]

I walk to work every day, it takes about 45 minutes through central London. I feel like half my journey is under canopies and scaffolding.

There was a definite dip in the stuff I mainly work on (electrician's mate for office fit outs/refits) but it's definitely kicked up a gear in the past six months. One more year until I'm fully qualified, hope it's still as busy then so I can really make some money.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Hutsball?

Android's google keyboard FTW.

So Unite are putting pressure on Miliband offering an EU vote. I think this could tie into ZOMG's theory/source that UKIP are going to target Labour heartlands perhaps? Lead up to the next GE is going to be fascinating.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Glenda jackson destroying IDS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Jckm3X5MXo

Just FYI to everyone, because they don't have the same surname and he always comes up, this is Dan Hodge's mum.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Unite to press Ed Miliband for EU referendum pledge
Labour leader Ed Miliband has all but ruled out a referendum, unless further powers are transferred to Brussels.

But Unite's leadership fears this stance will be "a millstone" around Labour's neck at the next election.

They say Unite strongly supports the UK's membership of the EU but there needs to be "a clear the air" moment to give the people an opportunity to have their say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28125622

 

[Nicktendo86]

So Miliband using all of his questions today on the NHS. I mean it is really fucking important of course, but really? Typical Labour leader who has nothing else to say, just fall back on the NHS.

Edit: on the week when Labour are making their econemy/business 'push' btw.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Oh dear...

In PMQs Ed said “x has risen from 353k to 939k. That's an increase of 300%." Um, no, it's an increase of 200% (166% to be accurate). #maths

 

[anonymous_abc]

Oh dear...

The wording is not quite correct, but it is obvious what he means.
353+166% = 939
353*300% = 1059

 

[CyclopsRock]

The wording is not quite correct, but it is obvious what he means.
353+166% = 939
353*300% = 1059

Well, he already gave the real numbers. If he wants to clarify or simplify the numbers, he shouldn't be 134% out.

 

[phisheep]

Glenda jackson destroying IDS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Jckm3X5MXo

That's scarcely "destroying".

Wittering on about the "destruction of the welfare state" might make good copy, but it isn't even true.

She'd do better to focus on the organisational causes of specific failures rather than pretend impliedly that the Tories are taking all benefits away from everybody immediately.

A more competent version of ATOS. Doctors should state exactly what the person's physical and mental capabilities - so you don't have mythical Atos 2.0 making people walk across a room and ticking the "fit to work" box - but then someone with a knowledge of the local job market to look at the doctor's report vs the person's skills and decide whether it's practical for the person to get a job. The doctor shouldn't be doing the 2nd half of that process.

Makes sense.

I find it touching though the amount of trust we place in GPs who, after all, are self employed *private* subcontractors to the NHS while at the same time railing on that privatisation in any form is an evil to be avoided at all costs.

The point was more about when benefits come in. I wasn't suggesting that GP's do the full assessment, just that receiving a doctor's note of sufficient seriousness should give rise to a presumption that you can't work and benefits are paid out straight away. An assessment as to whether there are any jobs you can do can be done at a later date, and it may well be that arrangements need to be made (to allow you to work from home, etc.), but benefits should continue to be paid while those arrangements are made.

That makes sense too.

I meet a lot of people on benefits. Very many of my customers are - after all, if you're on a tight budget you are more likely to get a bit of jewellery for £1 rather than £70.

Very many of my customers are disabled too, which is why I keep the shop wheelchair-friendly (or as the local consultants have it "wasting valuable retail space", but I have my principles).

So far as I can tell here the biggest problems that people face are when benefits are withdrawn presumptively. Doubtless that's an incentive to the plain workshy (it is, and some of them are), but it is a kick in the crotch for those genuinely in need - who routinely succeed on appeal.

Frankly, I'm a bit torn on the way it is going. I can't see that there is a good way of weeding the shysters out of the system without causing some short-term pain to the genuinely needy. Usually appeals get sorted out quickly - within a week or two - and generally there's enough community support around to bridge the gap somehow.

That said, if there were a real government incentive to set up businesses in "sink" estates I would be there like a shot. As it is, this is discouraged by the planning/zoning stuff - but I reckon plonking a decent business right in the middle of our local trouble spot could do a whole load of good to the area, to the people, to the feel of the community.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Edit: nevermind

 

[WayneMorse]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/02/dennis-skinner-labour-national-executive

Looks like Miliband has kicked Dennis Skinner off the Labour National Executive Committer.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Ouch, stinging assessment on the godfather of her child, Ed Miliband, by Jenni Russell today.

“This strategy might just win Mr Miliband the election, but it is a hopeless strategy for government. A leader who can’t inspire confidence, build alliances or enthuse his colleagues will fall apart in No 10. One shadow minister told me that there was little time left to change. He was afraid of losing, but winning might be worse.”

‘What some of us fear is that we’re going to win, but Ed could be such a terrible leader we’ll be out for a generation after that.’”

 

[8bit]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/02/dennis-skinner-labour-national-executive

Looks like Miliband has kicked Dennis Skinner off the Labour National Executive Committer.

Ouch, Skinner is about the only Labour politician I had any respect for these days.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Ouch, Skinner is about the only Labour politician I had any respect for these days.

Speculation is it was a botched attempt to oust Steve Rotherham. Party is falling apart.

 

[CyclopsRock]

It must genuinely be pretty difficult to be a Labour supporter right now, a bit like being a Tory under IDS. Even people that broadly support his platform, I think, struggle to really get behind Ed the potential PM.

 

[Nicktendo86]

They seem unelectable to me, similar to the Tories post 97. Toxic legacy still stuffed with personnel tainted by new labour. Unimaginable that our fucked up system means a man as unpopular as Ed has a fantastic chance of being pm.