UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

QuicheFontaine said:
Hey, isn't it the Clacton and Heywood & Middleton by-elections today? No-one interested in those? It's been pretty quiet in here today :-/
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Its going to be a Carswell walkover, not very interesting even if ukip getting their first mp is pretty historic.

The Reckless election will be another matter...
 
Nicktendo86 said:
The new tube trains look fantastic! 25% capacity increase on the central line, some sort of air cooling, drivers replaced with DLR style operators. can't wait, shame it will be years until they are in service.

Of course, the unions are up in arms, as usual.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...rains-for-London-from-TFL-will-look-like.html
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Omg that's amazing. As someone who's riden the Central line most weekdays for the past 10 years, it's long overdue an upgrade. We've had none of the nice things other lines have gotten, like wifi and better carriages.

I hope the unions are pissed. They hold the city to ransom yet all seem to loath their jobs. Just the other day I walked into an empty central line station and there was a problem with my Oyster, I got the attention of the only employee on duty who was sitting in his fish tank using a tablet, he rolled his eyes and waddled over. Silly me for asking someone to do the thing they're paid for.

10 years of threats and strikes will be fun.
 
Zaph said:
Omg that's amazing. As someone who's riden the Central line most weekdays for the past 10 years, it's long overdue an upgrade. We've had none of the nice things other lines have gotten, like wifi and better carriages.

I hope the unions are pissed. They hold the city to ransom yet all seem to loath their jobs. Just the other day I walked into an empty central line station and there was a problem with my Oyster, I got the attention of the only employee on duty who was sitting in his fish tank using a tablet, he rolled his eyes and waddled over. Silly me for asking someone to do the thing they're paid for.

10 years of threats and strikes will be fun.
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Yep, I only go from Mile End to Chancery Lane so that's just 5 stops but it can still be complete hell. The promotional video looms space age compared to what we have now, I so can't wait. Hope we get those exterior doors on the platform as well like they have on jubilee line platforms, I always feel paranoid as a train pulls in that someone will shove me!
 
So osbourne is saying the eurozone slow down will affect us (no shit sherlock). Trouble is when he was in opposition he blamed the UK slowdown and recession solely on Labour policy and not on what was happening abroad. So presuming there is a eurozone recession which may drag us into stunted growth/slight recession I wonder who he is going to blame? Will it be his own policy of accumulating more debt than labour did in 13 years and initiating and sustaining a massive house price boom that will drag people into huge debt. Or will it be "Europes to blame!". Hmm....
 
LAB 35%
CON 30%
UKIP 15%
LD 9%
GRN 6%

Tonight's YouGOV. LibDems showing their own slight conference bounce; much like Labour's bounce and the Conservatives', it'll be gone in 2-3 days.
 
Crab said:
LAB 35%
CON 30%
UKIP 15%
LD 9%
GRN 6%

Tonight's YouGOV. LibDems showing their own slight conference bounce; much like Labour's bounce and the Conservatives', it'll be gone in 2-3 days.
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Says everything when a conference bounce still leaves you in fourth place and nearly fifth. Dead party walking.
 
Labour sounding very chirpy at the by-elections. Party sources noting that on a swing of the same size as Heywood, they would win all 14 marginals in the north west, and also the early results for Clacton show the Conservatives struggling in the low 20%, a massive fall. Definitely a morale boost for Ed.
 
Heywood and Middleton results

LgP4EOg.png


Holy shit at that UKIP vote.

EDIT

Ww7bV6r.png
 
Dan27 said:
Labour is toast if this is the way things are going to go next year.
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Labour wins by-election, increases share of vote:

-> Labour are toast.

Conservatives lose by-election, see -26% swing in vote.

-> No mention.

Logic.
 
Crab said:
Labour wins by-election, increases share of vote:

-> Labour are toast.

Conservatives lose by-election, see -26% swing in vote.

-> No mention.

Logic.
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28% - If you're referencing Clacton, then your logic has failed as Douglas Carswell is hugely popular locally. The vast majority of those voted for the person, not the party.

Labour got within 600 votes of losing a seat they had since 1983.

No mention there?
 
Crab said:
Labour wins by-election, increases share of vote:

-> Labour are toast.

Conservatives lose by-election, see -26% swing in vote.

-> No mention.

Logic.
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Showing you know nothing about election mechanics. UKIP scored almost in line with the polls in Clacton, but they outpolled in H&M by 9% and almost took a seat in a Labour heartland. The latter is the bigger story. Douglas Carswell was the sitting MP, a safe option for locals, his win is not surprising in the least.
 
Everything there seems to be completely as expected with the exception of the Labour loss in Clacton which I can't really explain - The Tory fall makes sense since that's Carswell's old party, but it shows that a lot of people who voted Labour last time voted Ukip this time, which isn't the case in Heywood where Labour gained.

Edit: I assume it's explained by the typically low turnouts.
 
zomgbbqftw said:
Showing you know nothing about election mechanics. UKIP scored almost in line with the polls in Clacton, but they outpolled in H&M by 9% and almost took a seat in a Labour heartland. The latter is the bigger story. Douglas Carswell was the sitting MP, a safe option for locals, his win is not surprising in the least.
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You do realise this is a by-election, yes? and that larger parties typically do worse in by-elections? Labour winning is reasonably good news for them. It implies that even in fairly typical pro-UKIP areas, and demographically Heywood & Middleton is definitely such an area, and even under fairly perfect conditions (low turn-out, by-election), UKIP isn't taking seats from Labour. If they can't do it now, under these perfect conditions, they won't do it at the general election. More-over, UKIP dragging Labour down to the point they are defeated by the Conservatives, like Dan Hodge was predicting (lol) hasn't happened, because Conservative defectors to UKIP outnumber Labour defectors to UKIP by a big margin. Instead, UKIP makes it more likely than before Labour wins marginal Labour-Conservative races. In addition, the Carswell news is definitely big, because Carswell did not win by in line with the polls, he won by a larger margin, which means the Conservative defectors have a bigger incentive to defect now rather later, as they can win thanks to the fact that by-elections favour small parties, then entrench their incumbency for the General Election. If you genuinely think today was worse news for Labour than the Conservatives, then you're clearly not thinking right.
 
I swear to god if I see one more picture of Nigel Farage with a pint in his hand my head will explode. Between that and the torrent of press articles acting astonished at something we have known was going to happen since the day Carswell quit the conservatives it's not going to be a good day for me reading the news...
 
Maledict said:
I swear to god if I see one more picture of Nigel Farage with a pint in his hand my head will explode. Between that and the torrent of press articles acting astonished at something we have known was going to happen since the day Carswell quit the conservatives it's not going to be a good day for me reading the news...
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My mum always used to say "Cyclops", she said, "There's a lot of people in the world worse off than you!" She used to say "So remember, it could be worse". Those words are true, Maledict - remember that. His "thing" is drinking a pint whilst having a cigarette. Imagine his "thing" was actually performing oral sex on Carswell whilst gently dipping his balls into a creamy Macchiato over and over.

Wise old mum.
 
I've had a thought but it's quite dark so I'm going to spoiler tag it

Do you think Dan Hodges brings himself to orgasm by saying "Ed Milliband's in trouble, oh yes, ED MILLIBAND'S IN TROUBLE NOW"
 
Labour up 1% on 2010 and people are saying it wasn't a bad night for them? Pull the other one. That would put Labour on 30% with a NEV, dire.

This is what the Tories were doing in the run up to 2010:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwich_North_by-election,_2009 - 16.5% swing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crewe_and_Nantwich_by-election,_2008 - 17.6% swing.

And they failed to win a majority. Labour increasing their vote by just 1% while in opposition is absolutely fucking dire. Even looking at the vote share increase alone, the Tories recorded 6.3% and 16.9% in those two contests.

That's not to say it was a good night for the Tories, a good night for them would have been losing less badly to Carswell and core Tory voters in the North not wasting their votes and deciding to back UKIP. Those 3,000 Tory voters in H&M must feel absolutely stupid this morning given that a nominally right wing party came so close to causing a massive upset in a Labour heartland. It was just a worse night for Labour because it shows their fortress in the North of England is not impregnable as some would have us believe, added to the SNP's apparent polling rise (I remain sceptical until a proper national poll is carried out rather than looking at a few subsamples) and Labour could be losing seats in their two core regions to UKIP and the SNP.

The way I see it there was a Con+Lab>UKIP swing and a LD>Lab swing in H&M. In contests where the Lib Dems start from a lower base Labour will be in trouble.
 
zomgbbqftw said:
Just watching Andy Burnham on the DP. What a chump. He just doesn't get it. If this is the attitude at the top of Labour then they are fucked.
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And Miliband going up to H&M, but refusing to talk to the media, is laughable.

This was a disaster for both main parties. I expect the Tories to move a bit more right to try and combat UKIP now and it is vital they beat Reckless.

What do Labour do? How do Labour combat UKIP in the North? They can't turn right and piss off Lib Dems they have soaked up.

I really have no idea what will happen next May.
 
Andrew Neil was tearing people to shreds in the early hours this morning.

Like a few of you have said, the Heywood and Middleton result is bigger news. I find it amusing to think that, as much of the UKIP votes in H&M came from ex-Conservative voters, if 617 more had voted UKIP instead Labour would have lost the seat. Vote Conservative, get Labour indeed.
 
I have to agree with a earlier poster btw - I've grow to intensely dislike Dan Hodges. His articles used to be interesting, but it's become clear with time that the guy has a some form of psychological issue. I think Ed Miliband is a disaster and their entire strategy flawed, both conceptually and in delivery, but there's something about the way he writes and his utter one track mind about it that really undermines that message and replaces it with a feeling that he's talking about a jilted ex.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
The new tube trains look fantastic! 25% capacity increase on the central line, some sort of air cooling, drivers replaced with DLR style operators. can't wait, shame it will be years until they are in service.

Of course, the unions are up in arms, as usual.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...rains-for-London-from-TFL-will-look-like.html
Click to expand...

More importantly, capacity upgrades on the Central Line aren't a nice to have. The east side from about Mile End to Oxford Circus is dangerously overcrowded at rush hour, so any claims of danger to passenger safety from the driverless trains has to be weighed up against a mass casualty incident being a matter of time otherwise.

I don't think the RMT have a leg to stand on tbh.
 
Mindwipe said:
More importantly, capacity upgrades on the Central Line aren't a nice to have. The east side from about Mile End to Oxford Circus is dangerously overcrowded at rush hour, so any claims of danger to passenger safety from the driverless trains has to be weighed up against a mass casualty incident being a matter of time otherwise.

I don't think the RMT have a leg to stand on tbh.
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It's no joke, especially during heat waves. People look close to passing out and it's so crowded you can't even reach for the bottle of water they suggest you carry. I'm shocked their aren't more incidents regularly.
 
Mindwipe said:
More importantly, capacity upgrades on the Central Line aren't a nice to have. The east side from about Mile End to Oxford Circus is dangerously overcrowded at rush hour, so any claims of danger to passenger safety from the driverless trains has to be weighed up against a mass casualty incident being a matter of time otherwise.

I don't think the RMT have a leg to stand on tbh.
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Yup

I did that journey on and off for 6 years, and it was so bad at times I started taking the train to liverpool street and the circle/metro/hammer line to great portland and then walking. Added a fair bit to my commute but it was worth it
 
Bank is the worst and is really dangerous. Went to the in laws who live at Shadwell last night and decided to walk to bank to get on the DLR rather than waiting for a central line to get there. Big mistake, forgot how bad it is to get down on the DLR platforms, huge crush of people.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Bank is the worst and is really dangerous. Went to the in laws who live at Shadwell last night and decided to walk to bank to get on the DLR rather than waiting for a central line to get there. Big mistake, forgot how bad it is to get down on the DLR platforms, huge crush of people.
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You were literally within a few hundred metres of my flat. I feel bad for your in laws!
 
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