JonathanEx
Member
We're all being terribly legal with our lack of discussion
and saving it for This Week's all night boozefest
-
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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
We're all being terribly legal with our lack of discussion
and saving it for This Week's all night boozefest
Sir_Crocodile
Member
That blue nun stockpilling
QuicheFontaine
Member
Hmm, I've just looked and it's on til 2am. I'm not sure I care that much...
Nicktendo86
Member
Its going to be a Carswell walkover, not very interesting even if ukip getting their first mp is pretty historic.
The Reckless election will be another matter...
Omg that's amazing. As someone who's riden the Central line most weekdays for the past 10 years, it's long overdue an upgrade. We've had none of the nice things other lines have gotten, like wifi and better carriages.
I hope the unions are pissed. They hold the city to ransom yet all seem to loath their jobs. Just the other day I walked into an empty central line station and there was a problem with my Oyster, I got the attention of the only employee on duty who was sitting in his fish tank using a tablet, he rolled his eyes and waddled over. Silly me for asking someone to do the thing they're paid for.
10 years of threats and strikes will be fun.
Masquerader
Member
Isn't Carswell the one with the 25 degree angled mouth?
JonathanEx
Member
If it's last time - they carry on until the results are in. So it could be a looooong night.
Nicktendo86
Member
Yep, I only go from Mile End to Chancery Lane so that's just 5 stops but it can still be complete hell. The promotional video looms space age compared to what we have now, I so can't wait. Hope we get those exterior doors on the platform as well like they have on jubilee line platforms, I always feel paranoid as a train pulls in that someone will shove me!
dapperbandit
Banned
Agreed, an easy victory for Carswell but Reckless won't have such an easy time.
So osbourne is saying the eurozone slow down will affect us (no shit sherlock). Trouble is when he was in opposition he blamed the UK slowdown and recession solely on Labour policy and not on what was happening abroad. So presuming there is a eurozone recession which may drag us into stunted growth/slight recession I wonder who he is going to blame? Will it be his own policy of accumulating more debt than labour did in 13 years and initiating and sustaining a massive house price boom that will drag people into huge debt. Or will it be "Europes to blame!". Hmm....
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
LAB 35%
CON 30%
UKIP 15%
LD 9%
GRN 6%
Tonight's YouGOV. LibDems showing their own slight conference bounce; much like Labour's bounce and the Conservatives', it'll be gone in 2-3 days.
CON 30%
UKIP 15%
LD 9%
GRN 6%
Tonight's YouGOV. LibDems showing their own slight conference bounce; much like Labour's bounce and the Conservatives', it'll be gone in 2-3 days.
Says everything when a conference bounce still leaves you in fourth place and nearly fifth. Dead party walking.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Labour sounding very chirpy at the by-elections. Party sources noting that on a swing of the same size as Heywood, they would win all 14 marginals in the north west, and also the early results for Clacton show the Conservatives struggling in the low 20%, a massive fall. Definitely a morale boost for Ed.
dapperbandit
Banned
Heywood and Middleton results
Holy shit at that UKIP vote.
EDIT
Holy shit at that UKIP vote.
EDIT
dapperbandit
Banned
...and Clacton.
No big surprises here
No big surprises here
anonymous_abc
Member
Still looks very much like the London Underground. I like it.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Labour wins by-election, increases share of vote:
-> Labour are toast.
Conservatives lose by-election, see -26% swing in vote.
-> No mention.
Logic.
Jezbollah
Member
28% - If you're referencing Clacton, then your logic has failed as Douglas Carswell is hugely popular locally. The vast majority of those voted for the person, not the party.
Labour got within 600 votes of losing a seat they had since 1983.
No mention there?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Showing you know nothing about election mechanics. UKIP scored almost in line with the polls in Clacton, but they outpolled in H&M by 9% and almost took a seat in a Labour heartland. The latter is the bigger story. Douglas Carswell was the sitting MP, a safe option for locals, his win is not surprising in the least.
CyclopsRock
Member
Everything there seems to be completely as expected with the exception of the Labour loss in Clacton which I can't really explain - The Tory fall makes sense since that's Carswell's old party, but it shows that a lot of people who voted Labour last time voted Ukip this time, which isn't the case in Heywood where Labour gained.
Edit: I assume it's explained by the typically low turnouts.
Edit: I assume it's explained by the typically low turnouts.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
You do realise this is a by-election, yes? and that larger parties typically do worse in by-elections? Labour winning is reasonably good news for them. It implies that even in fairly typical pro-UKIP areas, and demographically Heywood & Middleton is definitely such an area, and even under fairly perfect conditions (low turn-out, by-election), UKIP isn't taking seats from Labour. If they can't do it now, under these perfect conditions, they won't do it at the general election. More-over, UKIP dragging Labour down to the point they are defeated by the Conservatives, like Dan Hodge was predicting (lol) hasn't happened, because Conservative defectors to UKIP outnumber Labour defectors to UKIP by a big margin. Instead, UKIP makes it more likely than before Labour wins marginal Labour-Conservative races. In addition, the Carswell news is definitely big, because Carswell did not win by in line with the polls, he won by a larger margin, which means the Conservative defectors have a bigger incentive to defect now rather later, as they can win thanks to the fact that by-elections favour small parties, then entrench their incumbency for the General Election. If you genuinely think today was worse news for Labour than the Conservatives, then you're clearly not thinking right.
Nicktendo86
Member
Come off it crab, it was a bad night for the Tories by also for labour. They were briefing they were confident of a 20% majority, they got 2.1%. 600 votes in it, in a labour headland
Edit: Mark Ferguson of labour list raises the issues this morning.
http://labourlist.org/2014/10/if-this-doesnt-wake-labour-up-to-our-problems-what-will/
Edit: Mark Ferguson of labour list raises the issues this morning.
http://labourlist.org/2014/10/if-this-doesnt-wake-labour-up-to-our-problems-what-will/
I swear to god if I see one more picture of Nigel Farage with a pint in his hand my head will explode. Between that and the torrent of press articles acting astonished at something we have known was going to happen since the day Carswell quit the conservatives it's not going to be a good day for me reading the news...
CyclopsRock
Member
My mum always used to say "Cyclops", she said, "There's a lot of people in the world worse off than you!" She used to say "So remember, it could be worse". Those words are true, Maledict - remember that. His "thing" is drinking a pint whilst having a cigarette. Imagine his "thing" was actually performing oral sex on Carswell whilst gently dipping his balls into a creamy Macchiato over and over.
Wise old mum.
JonathanEx
Member
I've had a thought but it's quite dark so I'm going to spoiler tag it
Do you think Dan Hodges brings himself to orgasm by saying "Ed Milliband's in trouble, oh yes, ED MILLIBAND'S IN TROUBLE NOW"
QuicheFontaine
Member
Well this thread certainly took a turn
Nicktendo86
Member
Yeah the image of Farage servicing Carswell is the moment I respectfully duck out.
CyclopsRock
Member
The weirdest thing is that this was the example my mum's always used, even 15 years ago when I was a wee nipper.
JonathanEx
Member
Well Cyclops I'm glad we both had inappropriate posts so close together, good job team
CyclopsRock
Member
I think we know how to shut down a debate now if it's not going my way.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Yes, but at the cost of all human decency.
I don't think I'll ever drink a macchiato again.
Jezbollah
Member
Cant...get...the...picture....out....of.....my.....head....
CyclopsRock
Member
Nicktendo86
Member
OK I speak for all of us I feel when I say fuck off Cyclops, glad I didn't eat this morning!
CyclopsRock
Member
Lololol alright alright.
So, uhhh, where's everyone gonna watch their GE2015 election night coverage? BBC? C4? Sky? Russia Today?
So, uhhh, where's everyone gonna watch their GE2015 election night coverage? BBC? C4? Sky? Russia Today?
JonathanEx
Member
It would be BBC because of Vine, but C4 have Paxo. And will probably do something different. Will flick between 'em.
Nicktendo86
Member
Russia today would be unbelievable, but I think it will stick with the good old BBC. The most interesting coverage is always on twitter anyway.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Labour up 1% on 2010 and people are saying it wasn't a bad night for them? Pull the other one. That would put Labour on 30% with a NEV, dire.
This is what the Tories were doing in the run up to 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwich_North_by-election,_2009 - 16.5% swing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crewe_and_Nantwich_by-election,_2008 - 17.6% swing.
And they failed to win a majority. Labour increasing their vote by just 1% while in opposition is absolutely fucking dire. Even looking at the vote share increase alone, the Tories recorded 6.3% and 16.9% in those two contests.
That's not to say it was a good night for the Tories, a good night for them would have been losing less badly to Carswell and core Tory voters in the North not wasting their votes and deciding to back UKIP. Those 3,000 Tory voters in H&M must feel absolutely stupid this morning given that a nominally right wing party came so close to causing a massive upset in a Labour heartland. It was just a worse night for Labour because it shows their fortress in the North of England is not impregnable as some would have us believe, added to the SNP's apparent polling rise (I remain sceptical until a proper national poll is carried out rather than looking at a few subsamples) and Labour could be losing seats in their two core regions to UKIP and the SNP.
The way I see it there was a Con+Lab>UKIP swing and a LD>Lab swing in H&M. In contests where the Lib Dems start from a lower base Labour will be in trouble.
This is what the Tories were doing in the run up to 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwich_North_by-election,_2009 - 16.5% swing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crewe_and_Nantwich_by-election,_2008 - 17.6% swing.
And they failed to win a majority. Labour increasing their vote by just 1% while in opposition is absolutely fucking dire. Even looking at the vote share increase alone, the Tories recorded 6.3% and 16.9% in those two contests.
That's not to say it was a good night for the Tories, a good night for them would have been losing less badly to Carswell and core Tory voters in the North not wasting their votes and deciding to back UKIP. Those 3,000 Tory voters in H&M must feel absolutely stupid this morning given that a nominally right wing party came so close to causing a massive upset in a Labour heartland. It was just a worse night for Labour because it shows their fortress in the North of England is not impregnable as some would have us believe, added to the SNP's apparent polling rise (I remain sceptical until a proper national poll is carried out rather than looking at a few subsamples) and Labour could be losing seats in their two core regions to UKIP and the SNP.
The way I see it there was a Con+Lab>UKIP swing and a LD>Lab swing in H&M. In contests where the Lib Dems start from a lower base Labour will be in trouble.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Just watching Andy Burnham on the DP. What a chump. He just doesn't get it. If this is the attitude at the top of Labour then they are fucked.
Nicktendo86
Member
And Miliband going up to H&M, but refusing to talk to the media, is laughable.
This was a disaster for both main parties. I expect the Tories to move a bit more right to try and combat UKIP now and it is vital they beat Reckless.
What do Labour do? How do Labour combat UKIP in the North? They can't turn right and piss off Lib Dems they have soaked up.
I really have no idea what will happen next May.
dapperbandit
Banned
Andrew Neil was tearing people to shreds in the early hours this morning.
Like a few of you have said, the Heywood and Middleton result is bigger news. I find it amusing to think that, as much of the UKIP votes in H&M came from ex-Conservative voters, if 617 more had voted UKIP instead Labour would have lost the seat. Vote Conservative, get Labour indeed.
Like a few of you have said, the Heywood and Middleton result is bigger news. I find it amusing to think that, as much of the UKIP votes in H&M came from ex-Conservative voters, if 617 more had voted UKIP instead Labour would have lost the seat. Vote Conservative, get Labour indeed.
I have to agree with a earlier poster btw - I've grow to intensely dislike Dan Hodges. His articles used to be interesting, but it's become clear with time that the guy has a some form of psychological issue. I think Ed Miliband is a disaster and their entire strategy flawed, both conceptually and in delivery, but there's something about the way he writes and his utter one track mind about it that really undermines that message and replaces it with a feeling that he's talking about a jilted ex.
More importantly, capacity upgrades on the Central Line aren't a nice to have. The east side from about Mile End to Oxford Circus is dangerously overcrowded at rush hour, so any claims of danger to passenger safety from the driverless trains has to be weighed up against a mass casualty incident being a matter of time otherwise.
I don't think the RMT have a leg to stand on tbh.
It's no joke, especially during heat waves. People look close to passing out and it's so crowded you can't even reach for the bottle of water they suggest you carry. I'm shocked their aren't more incidents regularly.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Yup
I did that journey on and off for 6 years, and it was so bad at times I started taking the train to liverpool street and the circle/metro/hammer line to great portland and then walking. Added a fair bit to my commute but it was worth it
Nicktendo86
Member
Bank is the worst and is really dangerous. Went to the in laws who live at Shadwell last night and decided to walk to bank to get on the DLR rather than waiting for a central line to get there. Big mistake, forgot how bad it is to get down on the DLR platforms, huge crush of people.
CyclopsRock
Member
You were literally within a few hundred metres of my flat. I feel bad for your in laws!