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[RustyNails]

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[SlipperySlope]

If they can strangle Tripoli of supplies for a few weeks, Gadhafi would be severely weakened. At least that's what I would do if I were the rebels.

They'll run out of fuel, would have zero electricity.

Then attack.

 

[xbhaskarx]

So Tripoli has been cut off from the west now as well as the east? Are there ships and planes connecting it to the outside world or is it completely cut off from outside supplies by NATO forces?

 

[SlipperySlope]

On the other side of the coin, if I were Gadhafi, I would reign in my troops from the East. If possible. Somehow get the ones around Brega, and get the ones near Misratah, and move them West. Basically bring everybody east of Tripoli. Then go full force on Ziwiah or whatever it's called, that the Rebels recently took. Cement that supply line.

After grabbing that line, I'm not sure of what else he can do. I'd probably go on a defensive stance. Make that line impossible to break. Maybe retake that Garyan town (probably also mispelled), and gain that second supply line back.

Edit - From there I'd probably go into the mountains and quell all opposition there. He would need to lower the number of fronts.

Edit 2 - Although this is all likely too little too late. He should have concentrated on the mountain campaign sooner and harder.

 

[RustyNails]

So Tripoli has been cut off from the west now as well as the east? Are there ships and planes connecting it to the outside world or is it completely cut off from outside supplies by NATO forces?

Completely cut off. NATO is on a lockdown mode against any aerial activity within the region. Only allied planes are allowed over the country. Not entirely sure how the protocol works with relief agencies' airplanes. There are also NATO boats and a big French ship (forgot it's name) somewhere in the sea enforcing the naval blockade. Gaddafi actually tried sneaking a big ass Oil tanker few weeks ago, but it was captured by NATO and redirected to Benghazi. Here it is

The docking of the Cartagena, that was carrying at least 30,000 tonnes of gasoline - a scarce commodity in government territory - boosted the rebels' morale and regarded it a minor victory after last week's setback in which the commander of their forces, general Abdel-Fatah Younis was slain.

NATO forces enforcing an arms embargo on Libya had hailed the 182-metre-long "Cartagena", emblazoned with the initials of the state-owned General National Maritime Transport Company, in the Mediterranean. Then cleared it to proceed to enter Benghazi, which it did shortly before midday local time on Thursday.

 

[xbhaskarx]

Completely cut off. NATO is on a lockdown mode against any aerial activity within the region. Only allied planes are allowed over the country. Not entirely sure how the protocol works with relief agencies' airplanes. There are also NATO boats and a big French ship (forgot it's name) somewhere in the sea enforcing the naval blockade. Gaddafi actually tried sneaking a big ass Oil tanker few weeks ago, but it was captured by NATO and redirected to Benghazi. Here it is

Excellent, so if the rebels can retain control over Zawiya, Gharyan, and Misrata, it's only a matter of time before the regime collapses.

 

[SlipperySlope]

Excellent, so if the rebels can retain control over Zawiya, Gharyan, and Misrata, it's only a matter of time before the regime collapses.

And Garyan too. Gadhafi will be starved unless he can retain at least two supply routes. Which seems less and less likely by the day.

 

[Escape Goat]

"I'll meet you in Cartegena."

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14538670

Military forces loyal to Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi have fired a Scud missile for the first time in the country's six-month conflict, US defence officials say.

They say the rocket was launched from the coastal city of Sirte and aimed at Brega - currently held by rebel forces - but landed harmlessly in the desert.

There has been no word from the Libyan authorities.

The move comes as the rebels continue a push towards the capital, Tripoli.

On Monday they advanced into two strategically important towns controlling access to the capital, from the west and the south.

Fighting was reported in both Zawiya, 50km (30 miles) west of Tripoli, and Gharyan, 80km (50 miles) to the south.
.

 

[speculawyer]

Libya rebels capture Zawiya oil refinery according to the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14584161

Rebel fighter Abdulkarim Kashaba said on Wednesday that they had taken "control [of] the gates of the refinery" and were planning an assault.

Heavy gunfire could be heard after rebels in cars loaded with large-calibre ammunition sped towards the refinery.

Although much of the fuel used by the Libyan army is smuggled across the border from Tunisia and Algeria, the refinery provides supplies for the capital, Tripoli, says the BBC's Matthew Price in Tripoli.

Rebels also appear to be consolidating their gains in Zawiya itself, and the Libyan army is clearly on the back foot, he adds.

Our correspondent notes that although the government is insisting it will fight back, there is a distinct nervousness among some government employees that has not been seen before.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14575444

 

[SlipperySlope]

Libya rebels capture Zawiya oil refinery according to the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14584161

A good step, but the city is not completely taken.

 

[RustyNails]

Libya rebels capture Zawiya oil refinery according to the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14584161

Gharyan has also fallen, the biggest southern supply route. Sabratha has also fallen this morning. Check the map above for locations of these cities. The three pronged attack was really quite a success story.

But there are still close fought battles in Zlitan, Brega and Ajdabiya. Ajdabiya is being defended by Khamis Brigade, the most ruthless of Gaddafi's battalions, led by his youngest son. Now that the supply routes have been cut off, Gaddafi forces are isolated.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Gharyan has also fallen, the biggest southern supply route. Sabratha has also fallen this morning. Check the map above for locations of these cities. The three pronged attack was really quite a success story.

But there are still close fought battles in Zlitan, Brega and Ajdabiya. Ajdabiya is being defended by Khamis Brigade, the most ruthless of Gaddafi's battalions, led by his youngest son. Now that the supply routes have been cut off, Gaddafi forces are isolated.

Yeah, but the Rebel Alliance needs to hold the refinery. It didn't seem like a ton of troops were deployed by them. I hope they can fortify and reinforce the area and root out the snipers more than likely littering the area. I would hate to see them overextend themselves.

I also think NATO might pause in terms of direct support due to fears I've heard of over a rapid collapse of the regime or the Rebel Alliance taking Tripoli before a firmer government structure is in place. It wouldn't be a bad idea to just let shortages start sinking in for Tripoli to weaken the regime a little first while setting up a structure for government.

Yes, I know Rebel Alliance, I just got bored with the term rebels.

 

[RustyNails]

Yeah, but the Rebel Alliance needs to hold the refinery. It didn't seem like a ton of troops were deployed by them. I hope they can fortify and reinforce the area and root out the snipers more than likely littering the area. I would hate to see them overextend themselves.

I also think NATO might pause in terms of direct support due to fears I've heard of over a rapid collapse of the regime or the Rebel Alliance taking Tripoli before a firmer government structure is in place. It wouldn't be a bad idea to just let shortages start sinking in for Tripoli to weaken the regime a little first while setting up a structure for government.

Yes, I know Rebel Alliance, I just got bored with the term rebels.

Weren't they fighting to capture Brega's refinery 3 days ago? What happened of that?

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Weren't they fighting to capture Brega's refinery 3 days ago? What happened of that?

Not sure.

I did find this while looking for articles.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44192334/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

Moammar Gadhafi is making preparations for a departure from Libya with his family for possible exile in Tunisia, U.S. officials have told NBC News, citing intelligence reports.

 

[RustyNails]

Not sure.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/libya-rebels-battle-for-refineries-in-east-and-west/
No update yet on it, so I fear rebels fucked it up.

I did find this while looking for articles.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44192334/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

This changes everything.

 

[GillianSeed79]

Gharyan has also fallen, the biggest southern supply route. Sabratha has also fallen this morning. Check the map above for locations of these cities. The three pronged attack was really quite a success story.

But there are still close fought battles in Zlitan, Brega and Ajdabiya. Ajdabiya is being defended by Khamis Brigade, the most ruthless of Gaddafi's battalions, led by his youngest son. Now that the supply routes have been cut off, Gaddafi forces are isolated.

I know that you've been following this closely from the ouset Rusty. With supply routes to Tripoli cut off what do you think the rebels will or should do? It seems like momentum is in their favor after a long stale mate, but I'm kind of thinking, strategically, it might make more sense to hold ground and starve Tripoli of resources before staging a full on offensive. Of course, I'm not suggesting they are in a position as of yet right now to mount an offensive on Tripoli, but my biggest fear is that they might try to jump the gun too soon. I'm sure the most well armed, trained and loyal forces are in Tripoli, so I'd hate to see a suicidal offensive. And I'm honestly not sure if the populace there would actually embrace the rebels in an offensive or if they are actually as bat shit insane loyalists as state tv there portrays them.

 

[AlimNassor]

I know that you've been following this closely from the ouset Rusty. With supply routes to Tripoli cut off what do you think the rebels will or should do? It seems like momentum is in their favor after a long stale mate, but I'm kind of thinking, strategically, it might make more sense to hold ground and starve Tripoli of resources before staging a full on offensive. Of course, I'm not suggesting they are in a position as of yet right now to mount an offensive on Tripoli, but my biggest fear is that they might try to jump the gun too soon. I'm sure the most well armed, trained and loyal forces are in Tripoli, so I'd hate to see a suicidal offensive. And I'm honestly not sure if the populace there would actually embrace the rebels in an offensive or if they are actually as bat shit insane loyalists as state tv there portrays them.

if the rebels decide to attack the capital...words will fail to describe the stupidity. Thats exactly what Gaddaffi wants. He wants them to be stupid enough to attack the city where mostly his entire army is waiting to crush them. If the rebels are expecting NATO to help they've got something else. NATO can't bomb civilian areas. You can bet any amount of money Gaddaffi is going to blend his soldiers in with civilians and make any aerial strikes hit civilian areas.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/libya-rebels-battle-for-refineries-in-east-and-west/
No update yet on it, so I fear rebels fucked it up.

Yeah, that said Mummar seems to be settling to the Defense of Berlin Mode looking at the kid with the machine gun. We all know how that worked out.

This changes everything.

I honestly would have expect him to turn up in Cuba or Chavez land. I just don't think Tunisia wants him. Libya is going to want his ass back, and it could be a source of useless bad blood neither country needs or want.

He'll be the one guy the Sauds won't touch though. Bet he wishes he never tried to kill them. lol

Of course this is assuming it's true. Only Ben Ali so far had the common sense to get the fuck out of town and not try and come back.

 

[AlimNassor]

Honestly, I'm not going to be surprised if tomorrow I hear the rebels are going to launch an all out attack on Tripoli. A few weeks later Benghazi is flying the green flag and Gaddaffi is laughing at NATO. But then do we even want these guys to win? They let one of their high ranking generals get gunned down by his own men. Can we really be so sure they can actually keep the nation from tearing itself apart again?

 

[RustyNails]

I know that you've been following this closely from the ouset Rusty. With supply routes to Tripoli cut off what do you think the rebels will or should do? It seems like momentum is in their favor after a long stale mate, but I'm kind of thinking, strategically, it might make more sense to hold ground and starve Tripoli of resources before staging a full on offensive. Of course, I'm not suggesting they are in a position as of yet right now to mount an offensive on Tripoli, but my biggest fear is that they might try to jump the gun too soon. I'm sure the most well armed, trained and loyal forces are in Tripoli, so I'd hate to see a suicidal offensive. And I'm honestly not sure if the populace there would actually embrace the rebels in an offensive or if they are actually as bat shit insane loyalists as state tv there portrays them.

As I was reading your post, I was thinking of "starve tripoli" as the answer and lo and behold, you read my mind. With the supply routes cut off, Rebels shouldn't bumrush into the stronghold capital of Gaddafi, with 6m something population. Instead, they should consolidate their gains in the east: clear out Brega and Ajdabiya while making situation in Tripoli desperate by the hour due to Nato bombing runs as well as due to fuel shortages. My prediction was that they were gonna spring into Tripoli from three directions in 10 about days. If Brega and Zawaiya aren't fully captured in next two to three days, we might have to revise the prediction.

 

[clemenx]

There are (again) some rumblings here in the Venezuelan media that Gaddafi may come here to exile.
I live underestimating Chavez's craziness but I don't think it would be wise for anyone even considering his support for him. Sigh, this country, the fact that this is a rumor is sickening.

 

[speculawyer]

I honestly would have expect him to turn up in Cuba or Chavez land. I just don't think Tunisia wants him.

He has donated a lot of money to various other African countries, so I think some random African country would make a good exile home for him. I agree that Tunisia is a bit too close.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

He has donated a lot of money to various other African countries, so I think some random African country would make a good exile home for him. I agree that Tunisia is a bit too close.

I could see Africa too, but I've heard a bunch of them don't want his goofy ass around. It would be funny if he's with Chavez, they could do a sitcom together. lol

 

[GillianSeed79]

Honestly, I'm not going to be surprised if tomorrow I hear the rebels are going to launch an all out attack on Tripoli. A few weeks later Benghazi is flying the green flag and Gaddaffi is laughing at NATO. But then do we even want these guys to win? They let one of their high ranking generals get gunned down by his own men. Can we really be so sure they can actually keep the nation from tearing itself apart again?

I'm rooting for the rebels but, honestly, if and when they win the cynical side of me thinks Libya is in store for some serious turmoil. I could be wrong and I hope I am, but I'm kind of doubting every one will be singing cumbia around the campfire and lining up to casts ballots once this over. It's probably still better than Mumar, but the impression I get from what little I know about Libya that's it's a very tribal society. Once Mumar is gone it might turn out ugly with such a power vacuum. History is ripe with freedom fighters turning into tommorows tyrants. Hopefully, this will not be the case with Libya.

 

[speculawyer]

I could see Africa too, but I've heard a bunch of them don't want his goofy ass around. It would be funny if he's with Chavez, they could do a sitcom together. lol

Throw in Ahmedinejad and you would have pure comedy gold.

I'm rooting for the rebels but, honestly, if and when they win the cynical side of me thinks Libya is in store for some serious turmoil. I could be wrong and I hope I am, but I'm kind of doubting every one will be singing cumbia around the campfire and lining up to casts ballots once this over. It's probably still better than Mumar, but the impression I get from what little I know about Libya that's it's a very tribal society. Once Mumar is gone it might turn out ugly with such a power vacuum. History is ripe with freedom fighters turning into tommorows tyrants. Hopefully, this will not be the case with Libya.

Yep. The current fighting could go on for a long time. And if the rebels win, it is just the start of another very difficult period. It could easily get taken over by yet another dictator.

Who knows . . . maybe brothers Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt can all compete to see who has the best democracy?

At the close of the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia on September 18, 1787, a Mrs. Powel anxiously awaited the results and as Benjamin Franklin emerged from the long task now finished asked him directly, `Well, Doctor, what have we got? A republic or a monarchy?' `A republic, if you can keep it,' responded Franklin.

 

[RustyNails]

I forgot to mention a point: Tripoli has underground resistance. The guys who regularly deface Gaddafi's portraits, hang the old flag in squares, etc. But last week one of the rebel commanders confirmed that they have a liaison with the underground resistance, and they have given the resistance lots of guns and ammunition. I'm pretty sure they've exchanged invasion plans as well, so I believe it's a matter of time before Tripoli is invaded from three sides. Whether or not it's successful is hard to say. On one hand, Gaddafi has thrown weapons to all the civilians and a lot of his army regulars are there. On the other hand, rebels have really matured over the past 5 months. They've been capturing city after city, clearing out sniper nests, and being really tactful. I don't think we should underestimate them at this point. Question is will the residents of Tripoli revolt with rebels, side with Gaddafi or stay neutral. I'm thinking either side with Gaddafi or stay neutral.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Throw in Ahmedinejad and you would have pure comedy gold.

That would be hilarious. They need to give them all a joint twitter account and let them just troll people.

 

[RustyNails]

I'm rooting for the rebels but, honestly, if and when they win the cynical side of me thinks Libya is in store for some serious turmoil. I could be wrong and I hope I am, but I'm kind of doubting every one will be singing cumbia around the campfire and lining up to casts ballots once this over. It's probably still better than Mumar, but the impression I get from what little I know about Libya that's it's a very tribal society. Once Mumar is gone it might turn out ugly with such a power vacuum. History is ripe with freedom fighters turning into tommorows tyrants. Hopefully, this will not be the case with Libya.

NTC has drawn up post-gaddafi plans with the help of various international political agencies and groups. It's basically a two-year plan. It wasn't supposed to be made public, but it got leaked.

The document shows evidence of detailed planning for key security, telecommunications, power and transport infrastructure that is to be secured in the hours after the collapse of the regime — as well as the country’s famous Classical era ruins.

There is a suggestion that, in the event of Colonel Gaddafi being killed or deposed, the NTC and its Western backers would be prepared to negotiate with his sons.

But more importantly, it shows that Rebels' hoping for the regime to implode rather than an invasion. But this has been in the works for quite a few months, so maybe they thought they couldn't topple Gaddafi due to months of stalemate.

 

[Loudninja]

Libyan rebels: Eastern oil terminal Brega taken

BENGHAZI, Libya (AP) — A rebel spokesman says the strategic oil terminal of Brega in eastern Libya is now completely under rebel control.

Ahmed Bani says that the industrial town of Brega was finally captured early Saturday morning.

Rebels have been fighting for control of Brega for over a week.

Brega's capture is an important boost for the rebels because it contains Libya's second-largest hydrocarbon complex and is where the country's main oil fields feed into for refining.

The territory remaining under Gadhafi's control has been shrinking dramatically in the past three weeks, with opposition fighters moving closer to Tripoli, a metropolis of 2 million people, from the west, south and east.

http://news.yahoo.com/libyan-rebels-eastern-oil-terminal-brega-taken-020959031.html

 

[Loudninja]

Libya rebels capture coastal city of Zawiya

ZAWIYA, Libya (AP) — Libyan rebels are in full control of the strategic western city of Zawiya, pushing Moammar Gadhafi's troops back on the road east to Tripoli.

An Associated Press reporter on Saturday visited positions held by Gadhafi troops over the past week — all of which are now under rebel control.

Very distant shelling could be heard to the east of the city.

The victory in Zawiya is an important boost for the rebels as they try to tighten the noose on Gadhafi's stronghold in Tripoli, just 30 miles (50 kilometers) to the east.

The regime appears to be increasingly isolated, and is scrambling to marshal all the forces available to it to hold back rebels at the western front.

http://news.yahoo.com/libya-rebels-capture-coastal-city-zawiya-134049314.html

 

[RustyNails]

 

[Clevinger]

Reports of rebels fighting in Tripoli.

libya we can confirm rebels fighting in tripoli, in at least four areas
rebel commander tell NBC NEWS "Zero hour is beginning now"

Libya opposition Al-Aharar TV channel claims opposition has seized control of Tripoli international airport and Mitiga military airbase

#Tripoli tonight #Libya Heavy gunfire sustained fire. Moussa calling press conference now. Diplomats here too at #Rixos
Past two weeks in #Tripoli I've seen many pro-G gunmen/security on the streets. If this is internal uprising there's plenty to put it down.

 

[XtremeRampage]

I think about two hours ago, an NTC representative speak about some kind of operation from within the Tripoli.

Breaking

Blasts, sustained gunfire in Tripoli -Reuters witness
TRIPOLI | Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:34pm EDT

TRIPOLI Aug 20 (Reuters) - Multiple explosions rocked Tripoli on Saturday night and repeated anti-aircraft fire was seen streaking across the sky, a Reuters reporter in the city said.

Sustained gunfire and thuds were heard in the distance and residents of Tajoura, on Tripoli's eastern outskirts, reported clashes were under way.

Libya: Anti Gaddafi Fighters 'On Tripoli Streets'

Note that I need to stress NTC fighters from outside Tripoli haven't entered the city yet, at the moment all seems to indicate uprisings from within the capital city.

Update: It seems Al-Jazeera Arab managed to listen (eavesdrop/hack?) to G's military communication and broadcast it live?

 

[Clevinger]

Gaddafi military radios say they are suffering heavy casualties in #Tripoli.

Gaddafi is fucked.

 

[saelz8]

Gaddafi is finished.

 

[RustyNails]

End game. Gaddafi going down.

 

[Luckyman]

Moussa Ibrahim: Everything calm here. Small armed gangs.

Holy shit! How will this guy end..

 

[Crisis]

Does Gadhaffi surrender or does he simply get the hell out of there?

 

[NihonTiger90]

Just tuned into Al Jazeera to see if they're running anything on it at the moment (they're not) but holy crap, Tony Harris is there now? Wondering where he went to after leaving CNN.

 

[RustyNails]

It's a coordinated effort. Rebel commanders have activated their sleeper cells in Tripoli in light of a major offensive to Tripoli by dusk:

Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr reports from Az Zawiyah:

Battles are now are taking place in Az Zawiyah and in an area known as the 27 bridge.

"In the last hour we saw hundreds of fighters drive down from the western mountains, down to Az Zawiyah. Yhey're sending reinforcements According to field commanders, there's going to be a major offensive early on Sunday - they're going to push towards Tripoli.

"Opposition forces have still not yet been able to reach the outskirts of Tripoli. They launched a major offensive last Saturday. They entered the city of Az Zawiyah ... but Gaddafi army put up stiff resistance...

"I can still hear the sound of grad rockets landing in this city but rebel fighters have pushed them [Gaddafi's forces] to the east. They've taken control of the city centre and of the main hospital ... now they're trying to take control of the area called 27 bridge. They call that bridge so because it's exactly 27 km from Tripoli."

 

[Loudninja]

The end is in sight.

 

[xbhaskarx]

All right let's end this shit finally...

 

[speculawyer]

Gaddafi is fucked.

Gaddafi is finished.

End game. Gaddafi going down.

Well, we all know how long these things can drag on. Saddam and Osama lingered for years.

I still hope he just does an exile deal and spares Tripoli unnecessary bloodshed and destruction.

 

[Loudninja]

Libyan rebels in fight for Tripoli airbase: activist

RABAT (Reuters) - Libyan rebels continued to clash with government forces controlling Mitiga airbase in Tripoli, after fighting left an unknown number of insurgents dead in the suburb of Qadah and elsewhere, an opposition activist in Tripoli told Reuters.

"The rebels have surrounded a military airbase called Mitiga in the Tajourah district. The rebels there are telling the brigades that they come in peace to avoid bloodshed. There are areas where electricity has been cut off," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/blasts-sustained-gunfire-tripoli-reuters-witness-201213904.html

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Shit, I go out for an afternoon and look what happens.

Hmm, I wonder what's going to happen to Lockerbie Bomber?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Shit, I go out for an afternoon and look what happens.

Hmm, I wonder what's going to happen to Lockerbie Bomber?

Probably go into exile with Gadaffi. It would be funny if the new government gave him back to the UK to go back into prison as a show of good faith, since he clearly doesn't have cancer any more and he doesn't look like dying any time soon.

 

[XtremeRampage]

Update: It seems Al-Jazeera Arab managed to listen (eavesdrop/hack?) to G's military communication and broadcast it live?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okkhrTR8rjI

 

[~Devil Trigger~]

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okkhrTR8rjI

That's awesome.