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UN and NATO to Gaddafi: Operation Odyssey Dawn |OT|

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G

Gaborn

Member
Sir Fragula said:
No?

The new government forces have surrounded, entered and risen up in Tripoli. There is nowhere else to fight over and the momentum is not on the side of Gadaffi's clique.
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Who said the momentum WAS anywhere other than on the rebels side? But people have been predicting a quick end to this for a long long time now. There were rumors a few months back that Gadaffi was planning his exit and was trying to work a deal for asylum out.

Although, even when Tripoli does fall that's hardly going to be the end of things, I predict a long slow, painful, and probably bloody adjustment to the "new government" being in power.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Gaborn said:
Haven't we been hearing that for months and months now?
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Not in the last few months, I don't think. Just, what, a few weeks ago when that rebel general was assassinated, things were looking pretty grim and hopeless for the rebels.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Ignis Fatuus said:
Seriously what the fuck?
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Funny, I got the impression for a while there that the end of the war (oops, "kinetic military action") was near and it was just a matter of time before Gaddafi was crushed.
 
X

XtremeRampage

Neo Member
Easy, I actually agree with some of Gaborn's earlier posts that US shouldn't intervene. While it might be that they have the "good intent" and/or "moral obligation", I think the image that revolve around US is quite negative in many parts of the world when it come to "military intervention". Having the US as merely observant might reduce attack from party that like to carry "anti-imperialism" banners.

You can look at Ivory Coast, where the intervention was mostly done by French forces (with some UN troops assistance, none are Americans I believe). It received way less negative feedback than any other military intervention where the US is participating.

I see it more like at how the world view upon the countries participating themselves. CMIIW.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
XtremeRampage said:
Easy, I actually agree with some of Gaborn's earlier posts that US shouldn't intervene.
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And in this conflict the US barely *has* acted. I'm genuinely confused why people here associate the NATO element of the Libyan civil war as an American led endeavour. It's not. It's Anglo-French.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Sir Fragula said:
And in this conflict the US barely *has* acted. I'm genuinely confused why people here associate the NATO element of the Libyan civil war as an American led endeavour. It's not. It's Anglo-French.
Click to expand...

I think the US is leading in a monetary sense. Or at least that's what I remember hearing.
 
S

Steelrain

Member
So I wonder how strong the Spec Op presence is in Tripoli. The last day has been a page torn right out of a Green Beret playbook.

Those "military advisors" have been very busy it seems :)

I hope this whole mess is finally ending soon one way or the other.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
Steelrain said:
So I wonder how strong the Spec Op presence is in Tripoli. The last day has been a page torn right out of a Green Beret playbook.

Those "military advisors" have been very busy it seems :)

I hope this whole mess is finally ending soon one way or the other.
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German Spec Ops are on the ground protecting diplomats in Tripoli. As for those actively assisting the new government... probably a fair few!
 
G

Gaborn

Member
XtremeRampage said:
Easy, I actually agree with some of Gaborn's earlier posts that US shouldn't intervene. While it might be that they have the good intent and/or moral obligation, I think the image that revolve around US is quite negative in many parts of the world when it come to "military intervention". Having the US as merely observant might reduce attack from party that like to carry "anti-imperialism" banners.

You can look at Ivory Coast, where the intervention was mostly done by French forces (with some UN troops assistance, none are Americans I believe). It received way less negative feedback than any other military intervention where the US is participating.

I see it more like at how the world view upon the countries participating themselves. CMIIW.
Click to expand...

The thing is, ultimately you can't separate things into "good interventions" and "bad interventions" because gradually the line gets blurrier and blurrier. This intervention was about France and France's desire for a stable new government in Libya to ensure their oil supply. France gets 20% of their oil from Libya and that's important to them. Places like Darfur for example don't have oil and so aren't going to have a country like the US or France champing at the bit to go there and help "liberate" them (or in that case stop the massive humanitarian crisis).

What the US needs to do is pull back. We can't first of all continue with a military budget larger than the rest of the world's combined, but we also can't be anywhere and everywhere in the world when people are suffering, and we won't be. Further, we can't be expected to pick up all the pieces and clean up all the mess in a country just because, for example, their government harbored an international terrorist organization that perpetrated an attack that killed 3000 of us and then wouldn't hand over the leader of the group. Has the US offered to pay for the damage to Bin Laden's compound or any damage to surrounding buildings in the chopper crash? Of fucking COURSE not. We were there to do a job, we did it, and we got the fuck out of there.

People want foreign policy to be all nice and sweet and friendly and that's good. I think we SHOULD trade with everyone, for example the irrational trade embargo on Cuba needs to be lifted. But at the same time the US should stop being focused on the world's problems (at least those that seem to interest our allies like South Korea, Japan, France, Britain, and Israel) and stand our military down. We have enough infrastructure problems in our own country, we don't need to be rebuilding yet another country's.

Sir Fragula - If the US "barely has acted" then why should we need to be involved at all? If France wants to continue to secure their 20% oil stake in Libya leave them to it. It's no business of the US.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
German Spec Ops are on the ground protecting diplomats in Tripoli. As for those actively assisting the new government... probably a fair few!
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I know Obama signed a National Security Directive to us US ones a few months ago (not that we all didn't suspect that).

I hope that Libyan reporter figured out how to hold a gun. lol Sorry, but it was just so stupid the way she was holding it.
 
X

XtremeRampage

Neo Member
Sir Fragula said:
And in this conflict the US barely *has* acted. I'm genuinely confused why people here associate the NATO element of the Libyan civil war as an American led endeavour. It's not. It's Anglo-French.
Click to expand...
Well yes I know that. I fully realize the Americans are taking back-seat role. But the point is the US is still one of the countries that intervene, and mass media everywhere paint (including here in my country) the US as the major player/force in this intervention, thus generating sense (which is not always true) that the US "are at it" again with some ulterior motives. Heck, some people here in my country actually support G-man because those people think the "rebels" are separatists or armed gangs that need to be crushed, like everywhere else in the world, but they failed to realize the same person they support actually used to give military training to separatist movement in my country...

It's about perception and information.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
I have to say based on the Sky Report, it seems Ghaddifi's forces are withdrawing. I wonder if they hope to get the rebels to commit too much and then hit them like Libyan State Forces did early on.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I have been following the Libyan situation since Feb 17th, the day demonstrations against Gaddafi started. And I have to say, Sky News has beaten every other news agency when it came to frontline reporting. Right now, you can see their reporter with a rebel group inside Tripoli. Incredible. Zeina Khodr from AlJazeera has also risked her life and limb from the frontlines in order to file report, so AlJ comes second.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
I have to say based on the Sky Report, it seems Ghaddifi's forces are withdrawing. I wonder if they hope to get the rebels to commit too much and then hit them like Libyan State Forces did early on.
Click to expand...
Do they even have the ability to coordinate at that level any more?
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
Do they even have the ability to coordinate at that level any more?
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Very good question. It was also require they have some leadership that has some common sense in charge. Considering they didn't destroy the military depot before fleeing, I dunno.

Even that the whole melting away of forces is giving me a bad flashback. Hopefully it's to abandon uniform and not resist further.

RustyNails said:
I have been following the Libyan situation since Feb 17th, the day demonstrations against Gaddafi started. And I have to say, Sky News has beaten every other news agency when it came to frontline reporting. Right now, you can see their reporter with a rebel group inside Tripoli. Incredible. Zeina Khodr from AlJazeera has also risked her life and limb from the frontlines in order to file report, so AlJ comes second.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I appreciate it.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Starfish_Oxide said:
Read somewhere that the rebels done an amphibious assault into some area near Tripoli

Some balls if true.
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It's more of troops being brought in by tugboats from Misrata I think. Think of a small (very small) reverse of Dunkirk. Still it means they are coordinating which is good.

Sky is saying fighting near the Ghaddifi compound.

So we want to start a pool on what happens to Ghaddifi?
 
S

Starfish_Oxide

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
It's more of troops being brought in by tugboats from Misrata I think. Think of a small (very small) reverse of Dunkirk. Still it means they are coordinating which is good.

Sky is saying fighting near the Ghaddifi compound.

So we want to start a pool on what happens to Ghaddifi?
Click to expand...

Are these the options?

-The Mussolini Medley: summarily executed and hung out in public square.

-The Ceaușescu Show: Short show trial to satisfy formalities, followed by execution.

-The Hitler Stand: self-inflicted gunshot to the head.

-The Saddam Shuffle: Lengthy trial followed by execution by hanging.

-The Slobodan Slide: Protracted stay in International Criminal Court holding cell shortly followed by a "heart attack".


My money is on the Slobodan Slide.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
I have to say based on the Sky Report, it seems Ghaddifi's forces are withdrawing. I wonder if they hope to get the rebels to commit too much and then hit them like Libyan State Forces did early on.
Click to expand...
Where do they have to withdraw too? Tripoli seems to be it. It is time to burn your uniform, hide the weapon, and become a civilian.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Starfish_Oxide said:
Are these the options?

-The Mussolini Medley: summarily executed and hung out in public square.

-The Ceaușescu Show: Short show trial to satisfy formalities, followed by execution.

-The Hitler Stand: self-inflicted gunshot to the head.

-The Saddam Shuffle: Lengthy trial followed by execution by hanging.

-The Slobodan Slide: Protracted stay in International Criminal Court holding cell shortly followed by a "heart attack".


My money is on the Slobodan Slide.
Click to expand...

Hmm, I think we can work with that. Although that's only if they catch him. I think you need to aid the Chuckie Taylor, the Idi Amin (well not to KSA lol), initial Saddam, Predator Drone (knock knock) and maybe some others. Any other suggestions?

speculawyer said:
Where do they have to withdraw too? Tripoli seems to be it. It is time to burn your uniform, hide the weapon, and become a civilian.
Click to expand...
That makes sense, just consider me to be a worry wart.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Starfish_Oxide said:
Are these the options?

-The Mussolini Medley: summarily executed and hung out in public square.

-The Ceaușescu Show: Short show trial to satisfy formalities, followed by execution.

-The Hitler Stand: self-inflicted gunshot to the head.

-The Saddam Shuffle: Lengthy trial followed by execution by hanging.

-The Slobodan Slide: Protracted stay in International Criminal Court holding cell shortly followed by a "heart attack".


My money is on the Slobodan Slide.
Click to expand...

Saddam Shuffle involves months of hiding in a spider-hole though. That could happen.

There is also the Mubarak vacation.


If he were smart, he'd do a Napoleon exile.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
speculawyer said:
Saddam Shuffle involves months of hiding in a spider-hole though. That could happen.

There is also the Mubarak vacation.


If he were smart, he'd do a Napoleon exile.
Click to expand...

But you forget is it either the Idi Amin variant (just replace KSA with someone else) or the Chuckie Taylor one?
 
S

SlipperySlope

Banned
speculawyer said:
Where do they have to withdraw too? Tripoli seems to be it. It is time to burn your uniform, hide the weapon, and become a civilian.
Click to expand...

It's possible they could be consolidating in central Tripoli. We won't know until the rebels get there. Depends on how loyal his supporters are. I don't have the confidence to even give the odds on how hard the fighting for the central will go.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
So we want to start a pool on what happens to Ghaddifi?
Click to expand...
Self inflicted gunshot wound to the head, or rebel-inflicted gunshot wound to the head. If Tripoli Brigade is the one doing the assault on his compound, they might have very specific orders. But I doubt they're the ones doing it, since they are current enforcing the Mitiga airbase. Man, it's really hard to tell. Even my calculations were off. I couldn't predict the seaside assault from Misrata.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Starfish_Oxide said:
Are these the options?

-The Mussolini Medley: summarily executed and hung out in public square.

-The Ceaușescu Show: Short show trial to satisfy formalities, followed by execution.

-The Hitler Stand: self-inflicted gunshot to the head.

-The Saddam Shuffle: Lengthy trial followed by execution by hanging.

-The Slobodan Slide: Protracted stay in International Criminal Court holding cell shortly followed by a "heart attack".


My money is on the Slobodan Slide.
Click to expand...

You'd lose that bet. Libya is not a signatory to the ICC and the ICC does not have universal jurisdiction.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
RustyNails said:
Which Libya, Gaddafi's Libya or NTC's Libya?
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Either. the ICC does not have retroactive jurisdiction either, you can't for example, have them take over, sign on to the ICC and try Gaddafi for past war crimes. What will happen will almost certainly be handled within Libya.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
RustyNails said:
Self inflicted gunshot wound to the head, or rebel-inflicted gunshot wound to the head. If Tripoli Brigade is the one doing the assault on his compound, they might have very specific orders. But I doubt they're the ones doing it, since they are current enforcing the Mitiga airbase. Man, it's really hard to tell. Even my calculations were off. I couldn't predict the seaside assault from Misrata.
Click to expand...

I'd be wondering if someone non-native might not be coordinating with the Tripoli Brigade if they're assaulting the palace. That said I can't shake a feeling that Ghaddifi hadn't planned for this. I mean all this about people being surprised has me a bit worried. That said as Spec pointed out where can they go, and also listening to Sky, it sounds like the Death Star just went boom (as I said I like using Rebel Alliance vs the rebels lol)

That said what happens to Lockerbie if he doesn't get some free ride out of the country. I have to wonder if some rebels think getting him is like a bonus for whoever gets him? I doubt it, but I can't totally dismiss the thought.

Gaborn said:
You'd lose that bet. Libya is not a signatory to the ICC and the ICC does not have universal jurisdiction.
Click to expand...
Doesn't mean the new government won't decide to do so regardless. :) Hey, it could be some private global citizens who do it. :)
 
S

Starfish_Oxide

Member
Gaborn said:
Either. the ICC does not have retroactive jurisdiction either, you can't for example, have them take over, sign on to the ICC and try Gaddafi for past war crimes. What will happen will almost certainly be handled within Libya.
Click to expand...

Well that's lame.

Show-trial and execution so.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
Doesn't mean the new government won't decide to do so regardless. :) Hey, it could be some private global citizens who do it. :)
Click to expand...

Sure, again, the Court does not have retroactive jurisdiction.

Starfish - that'd be my bet, assuming Gaddafi lives that long.
 
G

GasProblem

Member
According to Sky, Tripoli is pretty much in hands of the rebels now. People celebrating out in the streets of Tripoli. No resistance by the Gadaffi forces in the centre of Tripoli.
 
S

SlipperySlope

Banned
GasProblem said:
According to Sky, Tripoli is pretty much in hands of the rebels now. People celebrating out in the streets of Tripoli. No resistance by the Gadaffi forces in the centre of Tripoli.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Tripoli is taken it seems. The army melted away.
 
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