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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected

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http://www.businessinsider.com/unsk...r-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11

"Nate Silver was right, and I was wrong," Chambers said in a phone interview.
But he said he probably won't go back to "unskewing" polls next time. He actually thinks conservative-leaning pollsters like Scott Rasmussen have a lot more explaining to do.

"He has lost a lot of credibility, as far as I'm concerned," Chambers said. "He did a lot of surveys. A lot of those surveys were wrong."
 
PA votes Democrat for the 6th straight Presidential election. What are the odds we're not bombarded with political ads next election? What's it like in say, Vermont during the election season?
 

Freshmaker

I am Korean.
Nutty thought: If Obama is serious about a Secretary of Business, how about offering it to Romney? Might be the one thing he's actually good at, plus a big bipartisan fig leaf post-election to set the tone. Or maybe I've just been watching too many episodes of The West Wing.

No no no. Romney as Business Czar. Blow Fox's collective mind.
 

marrec

Banned
PA votes Democrat for the 6th straight Presidential election. What are the odds we're not bombarded with political ads next election? What's it like in say, Vermont during the election season?

We'll continue to be a state the Reps try to win as long as we're electing Republican Governors and a Republican Congress.
 
Welp, my canditate lost by 98%. Oh well.

In any event, I find this morning hopeful. Hopeful for alot of reasons.

The most important one...Republicans will be foreced to re-brand or never win another general election. Hopefully, Republicans will recognize that the social crusade has been lost.

What we can glean from this election is that the country is now Center...not "center right." Why this election wasn't so bad for the Republicans? The Republicans still maintain the house. They still have a say in the direction of this country. However, they need to accept the fact that their "messaging" and they overall message, failed. (In other words, Republicans avoided an absolute disaster, but need to realize that they MUST adapt to the changing demographics of this Country...maybe they will get the message.)

Polling indicated that the fiscal conservatism does play. It is important. It is something to keep in the platform. That said, they are going to have to give this a new flavor....and drop the social sheet.


They need to start working with Obama (and Obama needs to show the leadership to allow them save some "face." Egos matter in Washington.). IF (and this is a HUUUUGEEE if) the house Republicans and Obama can work together on some level like Clinton did, then we could get some really good legislation in this country. Legislation that is fiscally responsible, yet actually helps those who need help.

I am hopeful, and

Im proud to be an American today.

I wanted to bump this again. Good on you, Tex. I wish we had more people like you in Congress.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Once a hack, always a hack.

Well, I guess the only reason why I wasted my time is that I expect hacks to come up with internally consistent models that have insane external assumptions.

Morris' completely insane predictions were based on his terrible assumption about turnout and weighting and unskewed polls--btw natesilverwrong.com has been down since polls closed and unskewedpolls.com did not update at all on election day, permanently enshrining their Romney wins by 5.4% of popular vote--but had those assumptions somehow been true, his predictions were internally consistent.

His new external assumptions are that polling was accurate the whole time, but the narrative he's constructed about the race doesn't fit with those external assumptions. If polling was accurate, "Romney's momentum" (an immediate 2 point popular vote bounce which did not result in Romney taking the lead) stopped well before Sandy. The Christie hypothesis is less hard to observe since Obama did boost a few points in the last week, but it's not clear why the Republican governor of New Jersey would have caused a national swing that flipped FL/VA/OH. I guess we'd use exit polling to try to interpolate the cause of those last minute bumps?

Maybe it's my error assuming good faith on his part that he was just misguided rather than deliberately ignorant.
 
Morris starts off by saying "Well, I was wrong, polls were right, whataya know" and then immediately continues by offering gut feeling / qualitative analyses of how Sandy halted Romney's momentum and Christie helped Obama. His arguments seem intuitive enough, but are they true? It'd be nice if there was some kind of quantitative measure to figure out when exactly "Romney's momentum" stopped and how, if at all, Christie "helped" Obama. Maybe if some kind of company polled American citizens at different points in time so we could see how the dynamics of support in the race shifted.

Sam Wang did exactly that with several article berating people for continuing to talk about 'Ro-Mentum' long after it died.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/25/do-you-understand-polls-as-well-as-david-brooks/
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/26/ro-mentum-watch-john-dickerson-cbsslate/


Nerds with stats win. The bonehead pundits like Dick just spewed shit. Of course, the idiots will continue to the listen to boneheads like Limbaugh, Morris, Hannity, etc. You can't fix stupid.
 
Has this made the rounds? Might be my favorite gif coming out of last night.
aKG4v.gif
 

Keylime

ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎγλοÏÏον καί ÏεÏδολÏγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
So dumb question, and apologies if it's been answered...but Nate Silver just about perfect'd this bitch, didn't he?

Both the State by State presidential stuff and the Senate seats?
 
As much as I love Chris Matthews that comment he made about being glad Sandy happened because of the political advantages was pretty disgusting. Even the other MSNBC anchors at the table were grossed out. He's apologized on Twitter but I hope he also does so on air.
 

NYR

Member
As much as I love Chris Matthews that comment he made about being glad Sandy happened because of the political advantages was pretty disgusting. Even the other MSNBC anchors at the table were grossed out. He's apologized on Twitter but I hope he also does so on air.
Concur. Gives the Righty something so easy to attack, poor show.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
So, probably about 2 weeks until the internet can finally stop the "love obama to get him elected" thing and start treating him like the flawed president he really is?
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
As much as I love Chris Matthews that comment he made about being glad Sandy happened because of the political advantages was pretty disgusting. Even the other MSNBC anchors at the table were grossed out. He's apologized on Twitter but I hope he also does so on air.

Chris Matthews cares more about the political "game" than he does any actual governing. He disgusts me.

Same with Chuck Todd. He's Wolf Blitzer with numbers.
 

Willectro

Banned
Good Christian Americans were out working yesterday, thus ensuring the appalling victory of Muslim Extremist Barack HUSSEIN Obama and the impending takeover of gay potheads in several communist states.

Fucking rigged. Move this shit to Saturday!

This is the best post I've read in years.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
So dumb question, and apologies if it's been answered...but Nate Silver just about perfect'd this bitch, didn't he?

Both the State by State presidential stuff and the Senate seats?

He got the presidential stuff entirely right--which is pretty impressive, some of his detractors in the polling community including the Gott/Colley Median poll projection missed Florida--but underestimated Senate Democrats (called both Montana and North Dakota for Republicans--Democrats very narrowly won both).
 
Looking forward to Michael Graham here in Boston at 3pm.
I'm one who doesn't think all Republicans and their ideas are nuts but they need to get this nut job off the air.
 

marrec

Banned
So, probably about 2 weeks until the internet can finally stop the "love obama to get him elected" thing and start treating him like the flawed president he really is?

All presidents have flaws, and how Obama is seen 20 years from now will be interesting considering his massive list of accomplishments coupled with the issues that the more left leaning members of the Democratic party have with him.
 
I respect the conservatives who admit when and where they were wrong, as I do for the liberals. I also hate it when either side gloats when the other is down. I'm an Obama fan, but I'm embarrassed when I see the vitriol from some of his supporters against the other side. Learn how to win with class.

I know, right? It's like a lost art.
 
So dumb question, and apologies if it's been answered...but Nate Silver just about perfect'd this bitch, didn't he?

Both the State by State presidential stuff and the Senate seats?

http://isnatesilverawitch.com/

PROBABLY
As of Wednesday, November 7th, 2012, Nate Silver is probably a witch.

His unusually accurate predictions are, thus far, explained by his use of validated statistical methods. His disregard of momentum, gut feelings, and the interpretations of people paid to promote certain viewpoints is not the result of supernatural assistance.
While we on the Is Nate Silver a Witch editorial board are strict rationalists, Mr Silver’s performance has been uncanny enough to raise small but significant doubts as to whether his methodology is entirely of this world. We are following the situation closely.
 

Tex117

Banned
I completely agree with you. It just seems like a daunting task.

Indeed it is.

I agree with this. I think the Republicans can survive with socially CONSERVATIVE policies -- limited abortions but not wholly illegal, immigration reform, continuing to subsidize the family unit. It's the socially REACTIONARY positions that they're getting beat on, and those should be left to the American Heritage Party.

Exactly!

I mean eff, if you and I, two Gafers can figure this out in 5 mintues, why the Republicans can't accept this is beyond me.

IF they do exactly what you just said, the Republicans will be a very viable party in general elections. A party many people would support I think.


Oh and another thing.

Im all for free speech...Everyone deserves that right, but not everyone deserves a microphone. Rush and Hannity need to have vieweriship fall through the floor boards. That kind of fear mongering will have no place in the Republican party if the Republicans take this wonderful opportunity to re-evalute everything from the bottom up.

I wanted to bump this again. Good on you, Tex. I wish we had more people like you in Congress.

Thank you! I will be annoucning my candidacy running on the Neogaf platform in 2014! (Jokes aside, I wish more Republicans across the board...down to the looney facebookers would recognize what is actually happening...and the golden opporunity that is now present the Republicans have to re-invent themselves while still holding a House of Congress...call me idealist or naieve, but eff...thats my hope).
 

Ovid

Member
Oh, I bet Republicans are seething at Chris Christie right now. He played them beautifully, fully knowing 2012 was a lost cause.
Haha, maybe. But what could Christie have said during the storm to help Mittens? The President could be doing much more to help the citizens of Jersey? That would make him look like a liar.

That's what Fox News is running with and they look ridiculous.
 

Derrick01

Banned
Chris Matthews cares more about the political "game" than he does any actual governing. He disgusts me.

Definitely. My dad watches that channel so much and while Sandy was happening all he could talk about was the political aspect of it. Everyone else before his show was talking about the storm and about the areas it's hitting, but the first thing he does is "how does this affect the election". It was as horrible as anyone on Fox News.
 

Ventron

Member
I respect the conservatives who admit when and where they were wrong, as I do for the liberals. I also hate it when either side gloats when the other is down. I'm an Obama fan, but I'm embarrassed when I see the vitriol from some of his supporters against the other side. Learn how to win with class.

Couldn't agree more. I don't know which party would better represent me, I'd like to say GOP but why they chose clowns like Akin to lose unloseable elections I have no idea.

Checking in with Cheezmo avatar.

Obama is looking into my soul.

Good man! You kept your word.
(Were you junior'ed as well? A bit harsh...)
 
I admit I've been souring on Matthews a bit lately. I used to like his bombastic style but he's gotten to the point where he will barely let his guests get a word in.

God Tier:
Maddow, O'Donnell, Bashir

Platinum Tier:
Schultz, Sharpton (rough around the edge but still awesome)

Trash Tier:
The Cycle - seriously, WTF

Big fan of Thomas Roberts in the mornings too, I feel like he could be the next Brian Williams.
 
Pctx is fun and more clever, but Bulbo's been beating this drum for a long time and he's more subtle.

Bulbo > Pctx

I think Bulbo might be more reasonable with his actual politics than pctx. He's also a master troll. I could be wrong on my first assumption, but he's perfected getting bites from gullible libs on this board.

I love his posts. They always make me laugh.
 
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