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PS5 adoption has skyrocketed over the last 18 months
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[Dokku]

It's over Jim.

 

[feynoob]

It was over the moment MS put Xbox games on PS.

No more console wars. Just pointless arguments from now on.

 

[Kerotan]

It was over the moment MS put Xbox games on PS.

No more console wars. Just pointless arguments from now on.

It was already over at that point but by the end of this gen the difference will be shocking in America. From the ps3/360 era it's inconceivable to think this would happen.

 

[jroc74]

So:

PS5 is ahead of the PS4 in the US
Series consoles are behind XBO in the US

PS5 is about to catch XBO LTD in the US.

Whew....lawd.

 

[Unknown?]

So:

PS5 is ahead of the PS4 in the US
Series consoles are behind XBO in the US

PS5 is about to catch XBO LTD in the US.

Whew....lawd.

Wow! PS4 I think finished at 5 million more than XBO by the end of its life. We're looking at potentially a 10 million difference by the end of this gen.

 

[diffusionx]

PS5 started dominating as soon as the system was easily available, makes you wonder what the situation would be if they didn't have supply issues for years and the Series S was the only thing on shelves.

 

[DenchDeckard]

so 6 million difference. It's not two to one or three to one in the US?
- I thought it was that bad tbh.

What I find interesting is that the TAM is not growing at all, it's just 2 million people decided to buy the PS5 instead of the Series consoles. It's actually shrinking and that's with Covid boom demand.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

It was over the moment MS put Xbox games on PS.

No more console wars. Just pointless arguments from now on.

You're putting the cart before the horse.

Though, no source is credited to this to confirm the numbers are accurate, and Microsoft doesn't put out numbers, so anything would be estimates at this point, I think it's pretty clear what has happened. Though I have some serious doubts about the accuracy of the numbers.

Microsoft has not had a system seller release since 2015 if we're being generous. 2007 if we're being less generous.

The Xbox One already sold less than the X360 in the US, but it still sold well enough to compete with Sony due to consumer loyalty. If the numbers in the OP are anywhere near accurate, what we're seeing isn't really devastating without context. What we're seeing is a slight but continued erosion of hardware sales in the US.

In context though again, the 360 sold significantly better than the Xbox One in the US and perhaps more importantly had an existence in Europe, whereas the Series has had absolutely no success in Europe and Asia.

A lot of people fought me when I said the Xbox Series would be lucky to sell 35-40 million units.

That's troubling for the future of Xbox hardware and GamePass, but what's more troubling and to your earlier point why Microsoft has started pushing software on PlayStation and Switch is because of GamePass, Xbox consumers aren't buying games nearly as much. The hardware is a problem, but the software is a disaster.

The reason why Microsoft hasn't ripped the bandaid off is because they don't have to. The hardware is still selling, albeit not as well.

 

[jroc74]

Wow! PS4 I think finished at 5 million more than XBO by the end of its life. We're looking at potentially a 10 million difference by the end of this gen.

Yeah...and when you factor in the rest of the world.....

I totally believe MS wants to launch their next gen console sooner now.

 

[lh032]

 

[Oddvintagechap]

I will call this the Gamepass effect.

Which I firmly believe lead to a bare minimum console like Series S and prioritizing games as time wasters. Nevermind the investment into gamepass deals rather than games.

 

[jroc74]

so 6 million difference. It's not two to one or three to one in the US?
- I thought it was that bad tbh.

What I find interesting is that the TAM is not growing at all, it's just 2 million people decided to buy the PS5 instead of the Series consoles. It's actually shrinking and that's with Covid boom demand.

I guess, but:

18 million : 16 million

vs

20 million : 14 million

The number might be lower than some expected but its clearly a difference vs last gen.

At this point I assume many expect the gap to get bigger. And if MS launches a next gen Xbox a couple of years before Sony...Series sales definitely won't get better.

 

[Gaiff]

Way better than I expected from Xbox and much better than it deserves. I just don’t see the point of that system when the amount of high-quality games it has that the PS5 does not can be practically counted on one finger.

 

[Punished Miku]

Would have never guessed the difference was just 6 million in the US. I really gotta stop reading all these headlines.

 

[feynoob]

You're putting the cart before the horse.

Though, no source is credited to this to confirm the numbers are accurate, and Microsoft doesn't put out numbers, so anything would be estimates at this point, I think it's pretty clear what has happened. Though I have some serious doubts about the accuracy of the numbers.

Microsoft has not had a system seller release since 2015 if we're being generous. 2007 if we're being less generous.

The Xbox One already sold less than the X360 in the US, but it still sold well enough to compete with Sony due to consumer loyalty. If the numbers in the OP are anywhere near accurate, what we're seeing isn't really devastating without context. What we're seeing is a slight but continued erosion of hardware sales in the US.

In context though again, the 360 sold significantly better than the Xbox One in the US and perhaps more importantly had an existence in Europe, whereas the Series has had absolutely no success in Europe and Asia.

A lot of people fought me when I said the Xbox Series would be lucky to sell 35-40 million units.

That's troubling for the future of Xbox hardware and GamePass, but what's more troubling and to your earlier point why Microsoft has started pushing software on PlayStation and Switch is because of GamePass, Xbox consumers aren't buying games nearly as much. The hardware is a problem, but the software is a disaster.

The reason why Microsoft hasn't ripped the bandaid off is because they don't have to. The hardware is still selling, albeit not as well.

What do you expect when suits take over?

The writing was on the wall during that Xbox one conference. They only cared about the entertainment part, and not the actual purpose of the console.

It's a shame that they shat the bed for 2 gen.

 

[LordOcidax]

I was expecting a lot worse for Xbox…

 

[feynoob]

It was already over at that point but by the end of this gen the difference will be shocking in America. From the ps3/360 era it's inconceivable to think this would happen.

I think they will release a new gen early, which will be the last Xbox we see from them.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

What I find interesting is that the TAM is not growing at all, it's just 2 million people decided to buy the PS5 instead of the Series consoles. It's actually shrinking and that's with Covid boom demand.

This has pretty much been the case since Xbox entered the market.

Both are competing directly for the same demographic.
We can easily pull the sales numbers of previous gens that show as much.

That's why the idea of Xbox installbase migrating to PC en masse is laughable, they will just move over to Playstation and with Xbox games coming to Playstation, Xbox as a platform-holder is effectively dead*.

*outside of the most hardcore Xbox fans that might still buy a potential next-box which would be pretty much DOA outside of said minority.

 

[Jibran#one]

I have a series x and the other day I was thinking in the 10 years of Phil who most of you thought of a messiah who would save xbox
How many aaa system selling games were released under his banner.
The 2 blockbusters of this Gen were suppose to be halo and forza motorsport both of them sucked ass.

 

[yazenov]

What is more impressive is that the PS5 outsells the PS4 despite being more expensive (units + revenue).

61% of the PS5 Sku sold in March was the more expensive PS5 model with the disk drive.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

What do you expect when suits take over?

The writing was on the wall during that Xbox one conference. They only cared about the entertainment part, and not the actual purpose of the console.

It's a shame that they shat the bed for 2 gen.

It wasn't a bad idea it was just poorly executed.

If you look at companies like Roku, they only exist today because Sony and Microsoft failed to better penetrate the market. That and the rise of SmartTVs largely doomed them.

The first generation roku came out in 2008 after the PS3 and X360 launched. Either company probably could have put out a streaming stick that only ran their media UI, but they were actually more focused on bundling it with games.

Roku alone has a market cap of 8.6 billion dollars today...

 

[yazenov]

Would have never guessed the difference was just 6 million in the US. I really gotta stop reading all these headlines.

Now imagine what would be the difference if the PS5 wasn't supply constrained for 2.5 years from launch.

 

[feynoob]

Now imagine what would be the difference if the PS5 wasn't constrained for 2.5 years from launch.

Just bad software sales.

The lockdown inflated everything and led to wrong investment.

It's a was bless for them that there was a supply constraints. Imagine selling more consoles, only for the first buyers not buying games, because they went outside instead of playing games.

 

[MisterXDTV]

I was expecting a lot worse for Xbox…

You know, this is the only market where Xbox exist right now, right?

LOL

 

[Mr Moose]

so 6 million difference. It's not two to one or three to one in the US?

Last year it was.
Worse elsewhere.

 

[Xtib81]

I concur with a few comments here, I thought Xbox would be doing worse. Now, I need to see the European numbers, must be a bloodbath.

 

[MisterXDTV]

I concur with a few comments here, I thought Xbox would be doing worse. Now, I need to see the European numbers, must be a bloodbath.

How could it be worse when for the first 2 years and a half only Series S was on sale?

Just look at the Year 4 row and you see the trend....

It will be even worse in the next 2 years

 

[Topher]

The gap is larger than expected. Xbox has always done really well in the US. 360 smoked PS3 in the US. Even at Xbox One's worst point, it was never trailing PS4 by a wide margin. PS5 breaking away like this just confirms more and more are abandoning Xbox consoles for PS.

All that points back to reasons why Microsoft is shaking things up for their hardware going forward. It just isn't working.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

This has pretty much been the case since Xbox entered the market.

Both are competing directly for the same demographic.
We can easily pull the sales numbers of previous gens that show as much.

That's why the idea of Xbox installbase migrating to PC en masse is laughable, they will just move over to Playstation and with Xbox games coming to Playstation, Xbox as a platform-holder is effectively dead*.

*outside of the most hardcore Xbox fans that might still buy a potential next-box which would be pretty much DOA outside of said minority.

A few points

If these numbers are even remotely accurate, which I have concerns about, at least some Xbox fans would have migrated to PC. ~700K, which is nearly a 3rd.

You also have to consider there is always growth and decline. There are new consumers playing consoles for the first time. The lack of overall growth is probably somewhat related to the Switch. So that ~700K number plus some of the actual growth is probably split between PC and Switch.

It's starting to look like the next Xbox will simply be a series of Gaming PCs that run Xbox as an app on Windows, allowing people to bring over their Xbox games through BC (virtualization) and maintain their friends lists, saves, and achievements. We'll see how many Xbox fans are willing to pay premium prices to stay in that ecosystem.

If you look at the Alienware Aurora R15, it starts at 1,200 dollars.

But it makes sense for Microsoft. Xbox as a PC brand will have significantly better margins on hardware, they can still sell GamePass to those who want it. And they could even still have a Series S variant of low end PC that ran most of these games.

Other than that they'll largely be a 3rd party publisher with their own storefront.

 

[DenchDeckard]

I guess, but:

18 million : 16 million

vs

20 million : 14 million

The number might be lower than some expected but its clearly a difference vs last gen.

At this point I assume many expect the gap to get bigger. And if MS launches a next gen Xbox a couple of years before Sony...Series sales definitely won't get better.

But tracking to date and its a few hundred thousand down for the same time frame.

Last year it was.
Worse elsewhere.

It was close to two to one but PS5 would have needed like an extra 700K to be 2 to 1. The gap will widen, but my point is....its just numbers shifting around. Console gaming isnt growing AT ALL, its actually trending down...yet budgets are growing massively over last gen.

 

[Mr Moose]

But tracking to date and its a few hundred thousand down for the same time frame.



It was close to two to one but PS5 would have needed like an extra 700K to be 2 to 1. The gap will widen, but my point is....its just numbers shifting around. Console gaming isnt growing AT ALL, its actually trending down...yet budgets are growing massively over last gen.

PS5 is ahead of PS4 in the US, one of them is growing.

 

[DenchDeckard]

PS5 is ahead of PS4 in the US, one of them is growing.

That is not what I am saying at all......do you know what TAM is, or total available market.....that's what I am discussing.

 

[Mr Moose]

That is not what I am saying at all......do you know what TAM is, or total available market.....that's what I am discussing.

I thought it was an Australian snack.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

What's devastating for Microsoft is that the Xbox Series desperately needs a price cut, but they tried that last year in the winter and it just didn't work.

So the units you are selling, you're selling at a deep discount.

 

[Duchess]

According to VGChartz, PS5 has done just under 57 million since launch.

So, 57 million over 3.5 years means 1.3 million per month.

Bloody hell!

 

[Mibu no ookami]

But tracking to date and its a few hundred thousand down for the same time frame.



It was close to two to one but PS5 would have needed like an extra 700K to be 2 to 1. The gap will widen, but my point is....its just numbers shifting around. Console gaming isnt growing AT ALL, its actually trending down...yet budgets are growing massively over last gen.

I'm not sure if you can say it isn't growing. The data is murky because of the change in variables.

Some people use the Switch as a console. Millions of fortnite players on Switch.

TAM kind of goes out of the window when you consider the PS2 was a DVD player, the wii was such a non-gamer device, and the switch is a hybrid.

If we compare PS1/Saturn/N64 to PS4/X1, Ps4 outsold ps1 and saturn combined, and the X1 outsold the n64 by nearly double. So not taking into account the switch or the wii u at all, we've seen growth from the late 90s.

At the end of the day, what we know of console gaming is about to come to its conclusion. The PS6 will probably be the only traditional game console on the market. How many units will it sell? Really depends on how attitudes shift among Gen Z.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

A few points

If these numbers are even remotely accurate, which I have concerns about, at least some Xbox fans would have migrated to PC. ~700K, which is nearly a 3rd.

Not necessarily. There will also have been some overlap with people owning both PS and Xbox, that decided to just ditch Xbox.
There also could be a part that just didn't move over from last-gen yet, since the majority of games so far have been cross-gen and the economy isn't too wonderful atm.

You also have to consider there is always growth and decline. There are new consumers playing consoles for the first time. The lack of overall growth is probably somewhat related to the Switch. So that ~700K number plus some of the actual growth is probably split between PC and Switch.

There is this as well. No doubt Switch contributed to the difference as well.

The installbase between PS and Xbox has been pretty stable over the years though, sticking between 170M-180M.

But that's why we see execs coming out saying there hasn't been much growth in recent years and they want to expand their market.

It's starting to look like the next Xbox will simply be a series of Gaming PCs that run Xbox as an app on Windows, allowing people to bring over their Xbox games through BC (virtualization) and maintain their friends lists, saves, and achievements. We'll see how many Xbox fans are willing to pay premium prices to stay in that ecosystem.

If you look at the Alienware Aurora R15, it starts at 1,200 dollars.

But it makes sense for Microsoft. Xbox as a PC brand will have significantly better margins on hardware, they can still sell GamePass to those who want it. And they could even still have a Series S variant of low end PC that ran most of these games.

Other than that they'll largely be a 3rd party publisher with their own storefront.

Most likely. Seem rather realistic, I suppose.

But 3rd party publishing is guaranteed.

 

[Woopah]

A mixture of critically and commercially successful exclusives has definitely helped drive PS5 sales in the US.

So:

PS5 is ahead of the PS4 in the US
Series consoles are behind XBO in the US

PS5 is about to catch XBO LTD in the US.

Whew....lawd.

PS5 still has 9 million to go to reach Xbox One, so I wouldn't say it is about to catch it

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Not necessarily. There will also have been some overlap with people owning both PS and Xbox, that decided to just ditch Xbox.
There also could be a part that just didn't move over from last-gen yet, since the majority of games so far have been cross-gen and the economy isn't too wonderful atm.

Cross gen and most games being multiplatform are absolutely a factor. Why buy two devices just to play Fortnite?

The installbase between PS and Xbox has been pretty stable over the years though, sticking between 170M-180M.

But that's why we see execs coming out saying there hasn't been much growth in recent years and they want to expand their market.

I just question it overall. I think some people go to PC for sure. I think some people have gone to Switch and that's just not considered as much as a possibility. I think a lot of households just bought a Switch and that was that for the generation. We don't see the Switch as a direct competitor, but in a lot of ways it is. It's a massive competitor when it comes to time. If someone is playing Zelda or Animal Crossing they aren't spending that time playing Horizon or Spider-Man.

One thing Sony and Microsoft have given up on is family oriented titles and kid oriented titles. And maybe these games won't sell well right away, but overtime and with investment that could grow.

I think that might be part of Sony's thinking in buying Paramount and utilizing Nickelodeon franchises to attract a younger audience.

 

[Denorion]

But I was told by that all consoles are down and that Microsoft new multiplataform strategy is genius and that Sony should copy it Asap

 

[Kerotan]

I think they will release a new gen early, which will be the last Xbox we see from them.

Are they trying to put developers on suicide watch?

 

[Deerock71]

It was already over at that point but by the end of this gen the difference will be shocking in America. From the ps3/360 era it's inconceivable to think this would happen.

 

[Gaiff]

What's devastating for Microsoft is that the Xbox Series desperately needs a price cut, but they tried that last year in the winter and it just didn't work.

So the units you are selling, you're selling at a deep discount.

No, what the Series consoles desperately need are good games.

 

[Jibran#one]

Xbox one , Xbox one x and series sx all have one problem
Games
These are fucking gaming consoles with no aaa system selling games.

 

[Ozriel]

I will call this the Gamepass effect.

Which I firmly believe lead to a bare minimum console like Series S

An optional console, with the $499 flagship still widely available…

and prioritizing games as time wasters. Nevermind the investment into gamepass deals rather than games.

Lol. They’ve invested a shit load of money into games.
Execution and end product is the issue.

The 2 blockbusters of this Gen were suppose to be halo and forza motorsport both of them sucked ass.

Forza Horizon is MUCH bigger than Forza Motorsport, and FH5 certainly didn’t suck ass.

But how on earth did you list those two and omit Starfield, which underperformed?

 

[onQ123]

so 6 million difference. It's not two to one or three to one in the US?
- I thought it was that bad tbh.

What I find interesting is that the TAM is not growing at all, it's just 2 million people decided to buy the PS5 instead of the Series consoles. It's actually shrinking and that's with Covid boom demand.

By this time last generation you could get a PS4 for $299 I think

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

It was over the moment MS put Xbox games on PS.

No more console wars. Just pointless arguments from now on.

It was over before that. That's why they started to release their games there lmao

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

So basically no much different and 2m gained by PS are basically those who went from Xbox to PS.

Console market has not grown and Xbox is not dying

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

"PS5 adoption has skyrocketed over the last 18 months°


that's the correlation, right? I wonder if Sony's projections accounted for this. and then the biggest factor for PS5 to fall short of those was the price point.

one should expect after the business update + strong first quarter of PS5 games and Xbox's lack of output for PS5 momentum to go upwards, right?