Guys you heard here first, if the PS4 fails Sony is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!
Maybe you should look how they are trying to revitalize their phone division and being successful at it. There's a great possibility that Sony may end up being the third biggest biggest smartphone maker this year.
They had a shot a being the third one last year, but I don't know if they achieved that.
Sony, Microsoft hell even Nintendo would trade their videogame business in a heartbeat if they could dominate the smartphone market.
This whole Sony, MS and Nintendo are/may be doomed thing needs to stop. They are not going anywhere for a good while.
If the Durango, Orbis or Wii U completely fail the biggest danger would be to Nintendo since they focus on videogames and videogames alone.
Still this cycle has more than proved that 3 consoles are viable on a generation. The Wii sold great, the 360 and the PS3 sold satisfactorily. You might argue that Sony lost huge marketshare but the PS3 is not the failure that some people try to paint it to be.
If I was to make an educated guess I'd say that next gen Orbis and Durango will be close in sales (but not as close as they are now, and who knows who will come on top?) and the Wii U will trail a little behind. They won't bankrupt their makers.
You missed the entire point to the post.
Sure, if we have sales parity like you're talking about (which I agree is most likely, but not so much that the other possibilities aren't realistic) then everyone's in for another round. The entire post works under the caveat that someone drops a PS2-level market beast, and the fallout the other two would have to deal with.
If that happens and its not Sony and they don't pull a rabbit out of the hat (which is what I'd classify them leapfrogging multiple other competitors into a strong smartphone market share) they're in serious trouble. I like the direction they're moving the company in, but if consumers reject the Xperia line and the PS4 they're going to be in horrible shape a few years from now.
If that happens and its not MS I'd expect them to seriously reconsider their commitment to hardware, since it's not really their core market. If MS' corporate leaders see the Xbox brand regress (which a PS2 level PS4 or Wii U would result in) they'll want a more guaranteed angle into the living room.
If that happens and its not Nintendo they likely still make a healthy profit on the Wii U thanks to their dedicated fans and strong first party sales. 3DS will also be a strong product for them. They'll likely see less profit from both when adjusted for inflation than they did in the Wii/NDS era, but would still be in a capable position to keep putting out hardware. Their threat is in the long term devouring of the uni-tasker handheld and their fans getting fatigued with their core IPs.
Its not a doom and gloom scenario for anyone but Sony, who does need a strong next several years to keep from being an acquisition target by any company interested in their diverse portfolio of holdings.
Again, it's unlikely that anyone rolls out that kind of generation, but it's far from unheard of. Before this generation we had two three console cycles with one clear winner established each time. The market is big enough, but the market also frequently consolidates behind a single market leader. Its a legitimate risk to all three hardware companies.
