Support NeoGAF

[Poetic.Injustice]

Fox News is, by far, America's dominant TV news channel; in the second quarter of 2017, Fox posted 2.35 million total viewers in primetime versus 1.64 million for MSNBC and 1.06 million for CNN. Given that Fox was founded by a longtime Republican Party operative and has almost exclusively hired conservative commentators, talk radio hosts, and the like to host its shows, it would stand to reason that its dominance on basic cable could influence how Americans vote, perhaps even tipping elections.

A new study in the American Economic Review (the discipline's flagship journal), with an intriguing and persuasive methodology, finds exactly that. Emory University political scientist Gregory Martin and Stanford economist Ali Yurukoglu estimate that watching Fox News directly causes a substantial rightward shift in viewers' attitudes, which translates into a significantly greater willingness to vote for Republican candidates.

They estimate that if Fox News hadn't existed, the Republican presidential candidate's share of the two-party vote would have been 3.59 points lower in 2004 and 6.34 points lower in 2008.

For context, that would've made John Kerry the 2004 popular vote winner, and turned Barack Obama's 2008 victory into a landslide where he got 60 percent of the two-party vote.

"There is a non-trivial amount of uncertainty" about those estimates, Yurukoglu cautions. "I personally don't think it's totally implausible, but it is higher than I would have guessed prior to the research." And even if the effect were half as large as estimated, that'd still mean that Fox News is having a very real, sizable effect on elections.

Martin and Yurukoglu integrated a vast array of data — on Fox's channel position and viewership, individual/zip code/county level presidential voting behavior, and transcripts of cable news shows to showcase their ideology — into an extensive model that they can then use to estimate how effective Fox (and CNN and MSNBC) is at persuading viewers to vote its way.

Below, for instance, is how the estimated ideological stance of each channel changed over time; a lower score means more liberal, and a higher score means more conservative. You can see Fox News growing more conservative and MSNBC starting its move to the left with Keith Olbermann, Rachel Maddow, and others in the late 2000s:

The effects of CNN and MSNBC on centrist voters are mostly negligible; MSNBC, in 2000 and 2004, modestly increased odds of voting Republican, before it turned left in time for 2008. But Fox News increases Republican voting odds for centrists, for Democratic viewers, and even, in 2004 and 2008, for Republicans already strongly inclined to vote that way. Watching three minutes more of Fox News per week in 2008 would have made the typical Democratic or centrist voter 1 percentage point likelier to vote Republican that year.

”Fox is substantially better at influencing Democrats than MSNBC is at influencing Republicans," the authors find. While most Fox viewers are Republican, a sizable minority aren't, and they're particularly suggestible to the channel's influence. In 2000, they estimate that 58 percent of Fox viewers who were initially Democrats changed to supporting the Republican candidate by the end of the election cycle; in 2004, the persuasion rate was 27 percent, and 28 percent in 2008. MSNBC, by contrast, only persuaded 8 percent of initial Republicans to vote Democratic in the 2008 cycle.

These are big effects, with major societal implications. The authors find that the Fox News effect translates into a 0.46 percentage point boost to the GOP vote share in the 2000 presidential race, a 3.59-point boost in 2004, and a 6.34-point boost in 2008; the boost increases as the channel's viewership grew. This effect alone is large enough, they argue, to explain all the polarization in the US public's political views from 2000 to 2008.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/8/16263710/fox-news-presidential-vote-study

 

[StrategyFan]

they couldn't use this power & influence to make someone who wasn't a complete lunatic win the GOP primary?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Interesting that circa 2001, there's almost no appreciable political difference between the three major networks.

 

[Starfield]

Simpsons knew it before

 

[Link]

Depressingly unsurprising.

 

[Renekton]

Edit: nvm answered

 

[Neith]

I cannot believe people watch this garbage. Fox News is like the Propaganda Unit from the SS.

 

[capitalCORN]

I cannot believe people watch this garbage. Fox News is like the Propaganda Unit from the SS.

FOX news is like religion. All other gods are fake. Only yours is real.

 

[III-V]

good to see some free thinking for MSNBC watchers.

 

[old manatee]

My mom started watching Fox News after Donald Trump got elected "to see what the other side is saying", and now she watches Fox News all of the time and occasionally says stuff like "I actually think it's a better channel than CNN" as if it's noteworthy to trod over that bar.

 

[Barrylocke]

My mom started watching Fox News after Donald Trump got elected "to see what the other side is saying", and now she watches Fox News all of the time and occasionally says stuff like "I actually think it's a better channel than CNN" as if it's noteworthy to trod over that bar.

If she started watching it "to see what the other side is saying" then that means she had more liberal or neutral views before, right? Maybe you can have a conversation with her about it and other news sources and see if she can be turned away from the trash?

 

[Amalthea]

Like "Creating an American facist movement wich then elects a white-supermacist president" - kind of powerful? Hahaha, no way!... Right, right? /s

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

My mom started watching Fox News after Donald Trump got elected "to see what the other side is saying", and now she watches Fox News all of the time and occasionally says stuff like "I actually think it's a better channel than CNN" as if it's noteworthy to trod over that bar.

Fox News is misinformation and propaganda.
Watching Fox News actually makes you less informed than watching no news at all.

If she starts to think that its actually "not that bad" its time for you to intervene before its too late.

 

[Ashes]

A new study in the American Economic Review (the discipline's flagship journal), with an intriguing and persuasive methodology, finds exactly that. Emory University political scientist Gregory Martin and Stanford economist Ali Yurukoglu estimate that watching Fox News directly causes a substantial rightward shift in viewers' attitudes, which translates into a significantly greater willingness to vote for Republican candidates

.

They're very forward and trusting of their own conclusions at least. I'm more inclined to urge caution, and think about correlation versus causation.

 

[ClosingADoor]

It's basically a propaganda network, so no surprise there.

 

[Zeus Molecules]

It's basically a propaganda network, so no surprise there.

Yep propaganda at its core

 

[capitalCORN]

.

They're very forward and trusting of their own conclusions at least. I'm more inclined to urge caution, and think about correlation versus causation.

FOX news is not an ends but a means. It's fucking minitrue, America has a giant reactionary propaganda media empire. Why that was left to happen I don't know.

 

[Eria]

It's basically a propaganda network, so no surprise there.

Isn't all TV channels propaganda? It has been years since I don't watch TV tho

 

[III-V]

Isn't all TV channels propaganda? It has been years since I don't watch TV tho

The inference is that Fox News is state run media, so no, not the same.

 

[kmax]

'Hurr, the economy has gone down the toilet. Fox News says that it was these dirty immigrants that are tekin our jawbs'

A comfortable narrative for the feeble of minds.

 

[FStubbs]

The inference is that Fox News is state run media, so no, not the same.

It's worse than that. IIRC Bob Dole once said "I used to think that Fox news worked for us. Then I realized we worked for Fox news."

 

[Zolo]

Isn't all TV channels propaganda? It has been years since I don't watch TV tho

TV channels put out what they can to entertain their audience to increase ratings, etc. That said, Fox News does this by propagating false facts and dividing the country.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Only Fox news could get away with telling it's viewers everyday to not believe the mainstream media while they were #1 across the nation.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Isn't all TV channels propaganda?

MSNBC and CNN dont support white supremacy or neo nazism so they're the biased mainstream liberal media sent here to endorse sharia law and kill christmas.

Did you know Barrack HUSSEIN Obama wore a tan suit once and saluted a soldier with a coffee cup in his hand? These are the real stories that liberal snowflakes dont want you to hear.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Racism is a hell of a drug.

 

[Zolo]

Only Fox news could get away with telling it's viewers everyday to not believe the mainstream media while they were #1 across the nation.

Still don't see how this happens. With the Republican party, telling their base not to trust the government did in fact lead to them trusting a complete outsider over any Republican politicians biting them in the ass.

 

[Takyon]

That title makes Fox News sound like a Sith Lord

 

[cooljeanius]

Interesting that circa 2001, there's almost no appreciable political difference between the three major networks.

9/11

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

That title makes Fox News sound like a Sith Lord

Not a terrible comparison, they have alot of the same ideology.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Isn't all TV channels propaganda? It has been years since I don't watch TV tho

Depends a bit. Not every TV network has a clear agenda though. Sure, some journalists or shows might have a bias. But with FOX it is really, really just aimed at pushing a certain narrative throughout the network. I don't really know any other tv channel that does the same.

 

[Cvie]

they couldn't use this power & influence to make someone who wasn't a complete lunatic win the GOP primary?

I feel like Trump out Foxed Fox. He used the same kind of tactics they had primed their audience to accept.

 

[BriGuy]

My parents were somewhat apolitical when I was growing up. My dad leaned conservative being in the military and all, but he used to pride himself on never voting a straight ticket because "no party had a monopoly on the best person for the job." For the longest time, I never even knew my mom's politics at all.

Then they retired and fell into the church of Fox News. It was a gradual thing, but the formerly happy and normal people I knew changed. They became increasingly angry and paranoid, finding hidden enemies around every corner. They both got concealed carry permit before "liberals could take their guns away," even though they never had guns before or any desire to own or use them. Obama was a menace that someone "ought to deal with." BLM was a terrorist organization that wanted to kill white people. And Colin Kaepernick's protests were somehow equivalent to those torch-bearing white supremacists in Charlottesville last month ("they were the ones that had permits! And the KKK was founded by Democrats, Republicans ended slavery!").

I can barely talk to them anymore, and I blame Fox News for corrupting them. That shit is literal poison for the mind.

 

[gaugebozo]

That title makes Fox News sound like a Sith Lord

You're right, Fox News is way worse.

 

[gaugebozo]

MSNBC and CNN dont support white supremacy or neo nazism so they're the biased mainstream liberal media sent here to endorse sharia law and kill christmas.

Did you know Barrack HUSSEIN Obama wore a tan suit once and saluted a soldier with a coffee cup in his hand? These are the real stories that liberal snowflakes dont want you to hear.

One time, I heard he ate dijon mustard. You believe that shit?

 

[JORMBO]

I don't really see how FOX is any different from other cable networks. They are all slanted towards one side.

 

[Future]

Propaganda always works better than facts

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Interesting that circa 2001, there's almost no appreciable political difference between the three major networks.

You can see how the media and country got entirely on the same page from 9/11 through the beginning of the Iraq War.

 

[caliph95]

That title makes Fox News sound like a Sith Lord

Glad I'm not the only one that sees that

 

[III-V]

It's worse than that. IIRC Bob Dole once said "I used to think that Fox news worked for us. Then I realized we worked for Fox news."

Wow, never heard that one before. Fox is an American sickness.

#AllCableNews is a bunch bullshit.

 

[Monocle]

I don't really see how FOX is any different from other cable networks. They are all slanted towards one side.

So what you're saying is that you believe FOX reports news about as accurately as any other cable network? You think they're all roughly equivalent in terms of faithfully representing facts?

Hmm.

 

[caliph95]

I don't really see how FOX is any different from other cable networks. They are all slanted towards one side.

Eh

I'll say CNN is more sensationalist and not as Bias as Obama.

Like regardless of Bias Fox is worse than a lot of mainstream news who at least try more than Fox

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I don't really see how FOX is any different from other cable networks. They are all slanted towards one side.

Fox is slanted towards white supremacists and neo nazis, msnbc and cnn are not. So i guess that makes them biased?

 

[MWS Natural]

 

[SolarPowered]

Interesting that circa 2001, there's almost no appreciable political difference between the three major networks.

The country was more conservative, but everyone lost their minds just after 9/11. May as well have been career suicide to stand against the war for a while.

 

[GuessMyUserName]

So what you're saying is that you believe FOX reports news about as accurately as any other cable network? You think they're all roughly equivalent in terms of faithfully representing facts?

Hmm.

This shit is why some people think reporting on Hillary's Emails is a political equivalent to reporting on the ongoing Russian investigation in 2017.

 

[WaterAstro]

I wonder if this is after firing O'Reilly.

Also, didn't their affiliate, Sinclair Broadcasting Group, acquire more local stations with Tribune Media which makes FOX even more powerful?

 

[Fred-87]

Isn't all TV channels propaganda? It has been years since I don't watch TV tho

Not in my country. The state owned channels frequently are harsh when the ruling (or any other) political party messes up and stuff like that. But then again my country is also in the top 5 of free press rankings always. USA is quite low. USA for example is ranked below Burkina Faso by reporters without borders

 

[KingV]

Correlation is not causality.

Apparently the researches and Vox have never heard of that.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Not more than I could imagine. It goes way beyond Fox News as well.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

they couldn't use this power & influence to make someone who wasn't a complete lunatic win the GOP primary?

The power they have is in negativity, not in positive thinking. Slandering Dems is about all they do well.

Look how the wheels have fallen off since the election without a democratic boogeyman to work with. Meanwhile, CNN ratings have skyrocketed turning into Trump-themed Jerry Springer.