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Wkd Box Office 04•24-26•15 - Adeline ages fast & furious, Ultron RULES THE WORLD

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O

Obliterator

Member
PhoncipleBone said:
Deadline saying a 30% decline for Saturday due to the boxing match (which supposedly pulled in $400m in ppv revenue). That means a $59m Saturday. Weekend looking like $190m or so tops. So 2nd best overall, and still a shitload of money.
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Amazing number but damn, i didn't see many predictions saying as low as 190 million top end. I saw many thinking it wouldn't beat the first film but it will miss it by a pretty big margin.

Still huge money though, and you never know maybe the legs will surprise
 
M

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
Damn the fight hit it hard
I think they might be low balling the sunday a little but still disappointing to see the opening drop
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Obliterator said:
Amazing number but damn, i didn't see many predictions saying as low as 190 million top end. I saw many thinking it wouldn't beat the first film but it will miss it by a pretty big margin.

Still huge money though, and you never know maybe the legs will surprise
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Based on the gaf prediction thread and places like boxoffice.com forums very few predicted this wouldn't beat the first Avengers first weekend actually. The consensus seemed to be it would beat it and fall between 215-230.

Even Disney put out a press statement on Friday claiming the "opening weekend record was in sight". Disney wouldn't have said that unless they were confident it would get the record.

It is safe to say 500 mil is dead. Opening weekend is "only" 15 mil higher than Iron Man 3 which finished with 409 mil.
 
A

Anth0ny

Member
PhoncipleBone said:
Deadline saying a 30% decline for Saturday due to the boxing match (which supposedly pulled in $400m in ppv revenue). That means a $59m Saturday. Weekend looking like $190m or so tops. So 2nd best overall, and still a shitload of money.
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Wooooooow. Had a feeling that would happen, though. The fight was massive.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Ya, I totally underestimated how big an impact the fight would have on box office, especially on the West coast where it actually took place at a reasonable time. Early estimates based on Matinees and presales pointed to a $63-67M range. Now it looks like high 50s are more likely. I wonder if the bounce-back on Sunday (and subsequent hold next weekend) will be a little better.

Cheebo said:
It is safe to say 500 mil is dead. Opening weekend is "only" 15 mil higher than Iron Man 3 which finished with 409 mil.
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I think Avengers will have better legs than Iron Man 3. IM3 had Great Gatsby in weekend #2, Into Darkness in weekend #3, and Fast 6 + the Hangover 3 in weekend #4. Great Gatsby opened to $50M, Star Trek was over $70M, and Fast 6 + Hangover 3 did over $140M in business during their opening weekend.

This May is relatively weak. Next weekend only has Hot Pursuit, which will be lucky to hit $20M opening weekend. The weekend after has Pitch Perfect 2, which will be big, but primarily in a different demographic. Mad Max is R-Rated, and will probably be a modest opener. May 24 weekend has Poltergeist and Tomorrowland, neither of which are tracking over $50M OW at the moment.
 
J

Jigorath

Banned
$190m opening weekend will probably lead to $450m domestic total. Great numbers but Disney will probably be disappointed with such a large drop from the first film.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
kswiston said:
Ya, I totally underestimated how big an impact the fight would have on box office, especially on the West coast where it actually took place at a reasonable time. Early estimates based on Matinees and presales pointed to a $63-67M range. Now it looks like high 50s are more likely. I wonder if the bounce-back on Sunday (and subsequent hold next weekend) will be a little better.



I think Avengers will have better legs than Iron Man 3. IM3 had Great Gatsby in weekend #2, Into Darkness in weekend #3, and Fast 6 + the Hangover 3 in weekend #4. Great Gatsby opened to $50M, Star Trek was over $70M, and Fast 6 + Hangover 3 did over $140M in business during their opening weekend.

This May is relatively weak. Next weekend only has Hot Pursuit, which will be lucky to hit $20M opening weekend. The weekend after has Pitch Perfect 2, which will be big, but primarily in a different demographic. Mad Max is R-Rated, and will probably be a modest opener. May 24 weekend has Poltergeist and Tomorrowland, neither of which are tracking over $50M OW at the moment.
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I agree it will have better legs than Iron Man 3, but the ceiling on this is 480 mil I think if it has really good legs. I am expecting somewhere around 460 when all said and done now though.
 
S

suaveric

Member
I wonder if the tipping point has been reached. 2016 has at least 6 DC and Marvel movies scheduled to come out. Even if they're all good, could people be starting to get tired of the genre?
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
Cheebo said:
I agree it will have better legs than Iron Man 3, but the ceiling on this is 480 mil I think if it has really good legs. I am expecting somewhere around 460 when all said and done now though.
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If it does 460 that would give it the same legs as IM3 (2.35 multiplier) if Disney's 195M estimate is correct.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
suaveric said:
I wonder if the tipping point has been reached. 2016 has at least 6 DC and Marvel movies scheduled to come out. Even if they're all good, could people be starting to get tired of the genre?
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190M+ OW proves that they're not getting tired. GoTG, a relatively unknown property was the 2nd highest grossing domestic film last year.

We would have to see multiple films in the genre start to decline before that is a possibility.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
suaveric said:
I wonder if the tipping point has been reached. 2016 has at least 6 DC and Marvel movies scheduled to come out. Even if they're all good, could people be starting to get tired of the genre?
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I don't know about tentpole fatigue, but I really doubt Antman, Strange, and Panther will put up the same numbers as GotG.

Antman I can see topping out at $500 million WW, for example.
 
P

Penguin

Member
suaveric said:
I wonder if the tipping point has been reached. 2016 has at least 6 DC and Marvel movies scheduled to come out. Even if they're all good, could people be starting to get tired of the genre?
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It still opened super amazing and will cross a billion...

But I'd imagine we're in fora lot of thinkpieces related to this.

especially if Fantastic Four and Ant-Man do only decently.
 
M

mreddie

Member
suaveric said:
I wonder if the tipping point has been reached. 2016 has at least 6 DC and Marvel movies scheduled to come out. Even if they're all good, could people be starting to get tired of the genre?
Click to expand...

There are two more hero films this year, they'll be fine. 2016 will be the start of that question.
 
C

Can Crusher

Banned
A movie that will cross the 1.5 billion mark is an indicator of super hero fatigue? Some of the shit written here is sunday morning cartoon villain insane.
 
B

Blader

Member
Toothless said:
This is going to sound really stupid, but the one thing I think might hold back Civil War right now is the branding. It's just another Captain America movie there. At this point, with all the people in it (Captain America, Black Panther, Spider-Man, Falcon, Scarlet Witch, Vision, Iron Man, Hawkeye, Black Widow with probably
War Machine and Ant-Man
), calling it "Captain America" seems stupid even if Cap is the main character.

Just retitle it "Marvel's Civil War" and boom, tons more money.
Click to expand...

Beyond the fact that it's still seemingly written as a Captain America story first and foremost, there's a contractual reason why they need Cap in the title instead of calling it Marvel Civil War or Avengers Civil War.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Because I know everyone has been waiting for this number:

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 made $5.6M this weekend. $51M total
 
S

suaveric

Member
Can Crusher said:
A movie that will cross the 1.5 billion mark is an indicator of super hero fatigue? Some of the shit written here is sunday morning cartoon villain insane.
Click to expand...

Is it going to cross 1.5? I don't see it going over 500m in the US, which means it would have to do 1 billion overseas. I think that's pushing it. Obviously it's still a lot of money, but it looks like it won't do as much as the first one, so I think my question is valid.
 
A

alfredofroylan

Member
Can Crusher said:
A movie that will cross the 1.5 billion mark is an indicator of super hero fatigue? Some of the shit written here is sunday morning cartoon villain insane.
Click to expand...
Not really, but I feel this's the peak of the genre. Every generation has it's favorite movie genre and it's natural to think that superheroes will eventually fade away, meanwhile let's enjoy it while it's at its prime.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
suaveric said:
Is it going to cross 1.5? I don't see it going over 500m in the US, which means it would have to do 1 billion overseas. I think that's pushing it. Obviously it's still a lot of money, but it looks like it won't do as much as the first one, so I think my question is valid.
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It is one film and we don't even have the the domestic OW numbers and the film has just begun its run. It's an interesting question and one that may hold more weight if a trend become apparent but right now it's premature to ask.

I don't think anyone can come up with a solid answer.
 
K

kswiston

Member
alfredofroylan said:
Not really, but I feel this's the peak of the genre. Every generation has it's favorite movie genre and it's natural to think that superheroes will eventually fade away, meanwhile let's enjoy it while it's at its prime.
Click to expand...

I don't know. Superhero movies were breaking opening weekend records over 25 years ago. We just didn't get many worthwhile films back then.
 
M

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
it would be very unlikely that Ultron doesnt do 1 billion overseas
Its opening higher everywhere and in China it will probably do over 4x what the first did

Worldwide I think it will end around 1.6B, probably higher
 
M

MattKeil

BIGTIME TV MOGUL #2
alfredofroylan said:
Not really, but I feel this's the peak of the genre. Every generation has it's favorite movie genre and it's natural to think that superheroes will eventually fade away, meanwhile let's enjoy it while it's at its prime.
Click to expand...

The peak of the genre, if such a thing occurs, will be Infinity War.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
A movie can still make a ton of money and still be deemed somewhat disappointing. There isn't just two extremes we can pick from.
 
C

Can Crusher

Banned
These studios still haven't played their bigger money making card. Killing an A list super hero. Fatigue will happen after that.
 
S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Matt_ said:
it would be very unlikely that Ultron doesnt do 1 billion overseas
Its opening higher everywhere and in China it will probably do over 4x what the first did

Worldwide I think it will end around 1.6B, probably higher
Click to expand...

Anything they lost domestic, they are making up worldwide. that is a given.

Domestically, Disney is going have to weather it a bit this year. Avengers is under expectations and I don't see Ant Man proving to be a big success. Most likely going to be the lowest grossing point since Stage 1. Not Hulk numbers, but probably Capt 1 to Thor 1.
 
M

MattKeil

BIGTIME TV MOGUL #2
Can Crusher said:
These studios still haven't played their bigger money making card. Killing an A list super hero. Fatigue will happen after that.
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Until they bring said A list superhero back a few movies later. Comic geeks know that shit is old hat, but it's still a fresh thing for the mass audience. It can only be done once, though. If it starts to become a pattern like it did in comics after the death of Superman, the audience will start to lose interest.

shintoki said:
Anything they lost domestic, they are making up worldwide. that is a given.

Domestically, Disney is going have to weather it a bit this year. Avengers is under expectations and I don't see Ant Man proving to be a big success. Most likely going to be the lowest grossing point since Stage 1. Not Hulk numbers, but probably Capt 1 to Thor 1.
Click to expand...

I don't know about that. The trailer really popped, judging by reports from many people's AoU screenings. Ant-Man could surprise everyone.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
shintoki said:
Anything they lost domestic, they are making up worldwide. that is a given.

Domestically, Disney is going have to weather it a bit this year. Avengers is under expectations and I don't see Ant Man proving to be a big success. Most likely going to be the lowest grossing point since Stage 1. Not Hulk numbers, but probably Capt 1 to Thor 1.
Click to expand...

The studio does not get the same cut from OS grosses.
 
K

kswiston

Member
3N16MA said:
The studio does not get the same cut from OS grosses.
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Given that most of the gross growth will come from developing markets and China, overseas is going to have to increase by about $2 for every $1 lost domestically to keep the same profitability.

That said, Disney's take home on this film is going to be well over $500M. No one is getting fired.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Furious 7 made $6.1M this weekend, down 66% from last weekend. Vin and crew got steamrolled by Age of Ultron and last night's fight.

Domestic total for Furious 7 is $331M. It will probably crawl to $350M. China's gross is sitting at over $360M so far (as of Saturday). This is the first time a movie with over $300M domestic had its #1 market overseas.
 
C

Can Crusher

Banned
kswiston said:
Given that most of the gross growth will come from developing markets and China, overseas is going to have to increase by about $2 for every $1 lost domestically to keep the same profitability.

That said, Disney's take home on this film is going to be well over $500M. No one is getting fired.
Click to expand...

I would say Disney is much more interested in WW success because as they raise the profile of the franchise, they raise merchandise sales.
 
C

Caode

Member
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Edit: Beaten
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
It's going to be a very close race between avengers and furious 7 worldwide. Both are going to end up around 1.5 bil in the end.
 
K

kswiston

Member
I think someone messed up the China number for Furious 7. Yesterday, it grossed about $8M, bringing the total $363M. Today some outlets are reporting $381M in China, which is impossible ($371M is more likely). Not sure if that affects the reported worldwide estimate.
 
C

Can Crusher

Banned
Cheebo said:
Potentially the second as well. If Star Wars falls short of expectations we could have furious 7 #1 worldwide this year.
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I don't get it. Isn't Ultron opening bigger than FF7 market by market? How does that somehow translate to making less money?
 
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