Maybe it was the worse word-of-mouth than the first movie.
I certainly won't be recommending Avengers 2 to any of my friends.
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Wkd Box Office 0522-2415 - Disney's house is clean, Tomorrow lands @ #1
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I certainly won't be recommending Avengers 2 to any of my friends.
So no link, right?
Ninja Scooter
Member
Link for what? I'm asking your opinion?
Do you think Avatar 2 will gross more than Avatar 1?
Ninja Scooter
Member
I think it's certainly possible. I don't question James Cameron's voodoo anymore.
Considering how Joss Whedon is no longer part of the Marvel equation, don't think there is likely to be any kneejerk reaction over the failure hit the milestone. In the same way, The Dark Knight Rises failing to outdo The Dark Knight did not result in any immediate huge change. Nolan remained on board as a producer for Man of Steel. If AoU was a huge super hit eclipsing the first film, maybe they would have tried a lot harder to convince Whedon to stay and do Infinity War, but it seems even before the film was released they were ready to move on and have the Russos take over.
Now, if Civil War underperforms, and has equally poor word of mouth, they might see it as an issue for the future, but right now, I don't think there'll be any change in the formula which wasn't already pre-planned.
Now, if Civil War underperforms, and has equally poor word of mouth, they might see it as an issue for the future, but right now, I don't think there'll be any change in the formula which wasn't already pre-planned.
Yea Marvel has set the benchmark for film franchises, and Phase 3 is going to be one hell of a ride. I fully expect Robert Downey Jr. + Spider-Man to set another top 3 record
GotG's success would have just been the cherry on the top, but the MCU could have saved money by filming them close together and perhaps add even more value by connecting Guardians to Ultron. Hulk + Groot would be awesome and hopefully happens one day with Spider-Man alongside them. To me it's strange the Guardians weren't featured like the previous stars were in the first Avengers, and the MCU might be leaving money on the table without Pratt and Co.
While it was expected to do a little better, major sequels failing to match their predecessor isn't unheard of. The biggest reason Disney might be reevaluating things is because this is the first marvel sequel to land significantly lower than what came before it. Does it signify audience fatigue? Possibly, but it also points to a massive, healthy audience is still present. That's something that warrants considering as well when taking about whether AoU was a success or not.
I feel like that the strong likelihood that it won't match the haul of Furious 7 is the more intriguing question, especially since you can't play the Paul Walker card for how much it blew up in China.
Ninja Scooter
Member
The one thing that has really surprised me is that they haven't announced an extended Fast/Furious Cinematic Universe. I mean, everyone else is doing it so why not? We get solo Ludacris and Tyrese movies. Maybe a Rock spinoff....Universal showing some restraint lol (so far, remember there was talk of them wanting to do a MCU like movie universe using their stable of famous movie monsters)
PhoncipleBone
Banned
The Rock has said that there are plans for a Hobbs spin off with his character.
No need to write that drab response to me -- it's a success with more than $1.2b and counting, so I care not about armchair or industry box office analysts that want to keep putting the disappointment labels on it for their own narrative.
Success vs disappointment? If you must, then it had a somewhat disappointing start but in the end, it more than made up for its start with numbers in the following weeks and in international box office.
That really puts it into perspective, though. I do not have a problem with people stating AoU's run being a disappointment, because it genuinely hasn't captured the zeitgeist like its predecessor and, in a real shocker, it's likely going to finish under another film that came out a month before. I do have a problem with people framing a film that has gone on to disastrous numbers and overwhelmingly negative public response.
ScottSullivan
Member
How much could the marketing for mad max really be? Wans't the production budget just 150 mil? So if it's sitting at 212 worldwide already I imagine it's on track to at least make a tidy profit for all parties involved? Enough to at least justify a sequel?
I've been told 2x the production budget is a decent metric for profitability when taking into account marketing and distribution cuts
To give a rather local example, WB rented out a big video billboard by where I work for the week that was counting down the film's release date. I doubt they spent Marvel money on it, but it was definitely not cheap.
Thatoneguy64
Member
Studios don't get all of the box office receipts. It's closer to about 50%, maybe slightly more, these days. Even less money is made from overseas markets. Forbes reports that Fury Road has to hit $400 million to break even because of this. This is why movies like Pacific Rim aren't considered major successes, despite making $410 million on a $190 million budget. It really just barely broke past the even point.
That said, Fury Road will most likely slide right to the breaking even point without much trouble. That alone, with its positive reception, would be enough to warrant a sequel. Much of Fury Road's budget is due to a troubled development that a sequel likely wouldn't suffer from. With a more streamlined production, locations mostly scouted, actors already on board, and a script already developed a sequel could be made more cheaply. So a Fury Road sequel isn't exactly out of the question, I don't think.
The real question is whether we even want one. Fury Road wraps up rather nicely and is quite possibly the pinnacle of the George Miller's vision for Mad Max. Its troubled development gave him a decade to plan out each and every frame of the film (they storyboarded nearly every shot in the movie). A sequellacking a decade of of troubled developmentwouldn't necessarily have the same level of planning involved. And planning is what really made Fury Road what it is.
I hope that time doesn't catch up to him. He did a movie that guys in their 20s wouldn't be able to pull off with such vitality.
The development hell of Mad Max must have added a lot to the production cost. Perhaps this was only a $100M movie that ballooned over time. If this one breaks even, or makes a small profit, I could see the studio green-lighting The Wasteland with stipulations that it delivers on time and on budget.
Here are some numbers because reasons:
AoU chances to break 500M seem slim to me...
Code:
|Week 3 |W3 Total |Total |W3 % of Total |If same % AoU would end at
The Avengers: AoU |49,999,671 |383,170,479 |383,170,479 |100.00% |383,170,479
Iron Man |40,882,027 |232,167,416 |318,412,101 |72.91% |525,509,218
The Incredible Hulk |13,660,150 |119,942,115 |134,806,913 |88.97% |430,657,984
Iron Man 2 |33,912,107 |258,576,910 |312,433,331 |82.76% |462,977,259
Thor |20,453,148 |150,359,303 |181,030,624 |83.06% |461,332,219
Captain America: TFA |19,578,161 |149,760,206 |176,654,505 |84.78% |451,981,158
The Avengers |74,663,373 |476,684,788 |623,357,910 |76.47% |501,069,795
Iron Man 3 |46,190,641 |348,082,524 |409,013,994 |85.10% |450,244,058
Thor: The Dark World |21,898,969 |175,619,790 |206,362,140 |85.10% |450,244,702
Captain America: TWS |33,925,762 |208,840,216 |259,766,572 |80.40% |476,607,828
Guardians of the Galaxy |36,708,036 |234,253,857 |333,176,600 |70.31% |544,979,020AoU chances to break 500M seem slim to me...
Wow is it really that bad? I really thought the first trailer was cool. Pity.
Also regarding AoU's box office when people say disappointment, it is always relative to the expectations and not just about turning a big profit. No one would have predicted at the beginning of the year that
a. Fast and the Furious will do better than Avengers
b. Age of Ultron will perform worse domestically and worldwide compared to the previous one.
Regardless of it making money this would no doubt be disappointing for Disney. At the same time it made bank so there is nothing to worry about. I am pretty sure if Batman v Superman does not cross a billion, WB would be disappointed just as they probably were with Man of Steel even though that movie made a sizable profit. Disappointment can be viewed in the context of expectations.
RBelong2Us
Member
They are obviously making another Mad Max even if the budget ends up relatively smaller.
The movie is doing solid BO business for what it is, holding well, and is massively loved. That's recipe for a sequel.
Look at Batman Begins, wasn't such a box office monster but held really wel and got great reception. They ended up having an insane money making franchise on their hand.
The movie is doing solid BO business for what it is, holding well, and is massively loved. That's recipe for a sequel.
Look at Batman Begins, wasn't such a box office monster but held really wel and got great reception. They ended up having an insane money making franchise on their hand.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
It was also Batman, though.
It's like stocks.
Avengers is still going to be the most profitable movie this year overall. Between home sales and the merchandising it will push. Only Star Wars has a chance and I would say a slim one at that.
But it didn't beat expectations. Expectations were 210+mil opener. instead we got 190+mil. Expectations were 600mil+, we're going to crack 450 mil.
"Expectations, you beat 'm by a dollar, life is great. Get under by a dollar, put a gun in your mouth and make sure I'm standing behind you."
Avengers is still going to be the most profitable movie this year overall. Between home sales and the merchandising it will push. Only Star Wars has a chance and I would say a slim one at that.
But it didn't beat expectations. Expectations were 210+mil opener. instead we got 190+mil. Expectations were 600mil+, we're going to crack 450 mil.
"Expectations, you beat 'm by a dollar, life is great. Get under by a dollar, put a gun in your mouth and make sure I'm standing behind you."
MrCunningham
Member
I would imagine that they expected it to do worse domestically, but still come out even or do better than the first one globally.
And Batman was still a joke at that time, as most people still remembered the Schumacker films.
ryutaro's mama
Member
One of those movies opened at the start of May and the traditional summer movie season and the other one opens in mid December with no real competition for like 2 months following its release.
I'd say you're safe in your prediction.
Though that attitude is common for stock brokers, it seems like an exaggeration for the film industry. But what the hell do I know, I have no idea how studio execs actually react to this kind of stuff.
I'd find it really funny if Star Wars failed to meet expectations as well. Funny in a "haha, life is fucking crazy" kind of way. And now just watch, we'll see Ant-Man pull in GotG tier money. 2015 would truly be the year of inverse expectations.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
It's not like it looked anything like the Schumacker films, and Begins was received very well. Plus it had been a long time since those stinkers. And again it's Batman, it's one of those franchises that can be safely rebooted given enough time.
Yeah no doubt.
Manmademan
Member
I'm on board with this. Remember Avengers had basically no viable US competition for a month straight thanks to Battleship bombing right out of the gate.
they weren't getting that kind of window a second time.
Suddenly this feels like a repeat of 2012, with Ultron as TDKR and Star Wars as Avengers.
TacticalFox88
Banned
There is literally no way this happens.
If Ant-Man makes over 500 million WW I'll be fucking astounded.
Manmademan
Member
500 million WW is a pretty low bar. Thor 1 (barely), Cap 1, and Incredible Hulk are all under that, but nothing else is.
Prepare to be fucking astounded.
Pre Avengers, plus the international markets weren't as involved yet.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Even if WB just fall short of making back a profit. Mad Max is a successful investment for them because it's re-vitalized a franchise name for them that has been catatonic for decades.
After blu and VoD releases, following current word of mouth, it'll be totally worth WB going forward on a sequel, because the franchise will now have a re-installed userbase. They've resuscitated a property that previously had little to no value, into something audiences will go out to the cinema to see if WB are not stupid.
After blu and VoD releases, following current word of mouth, it'll be totally worth WB going forward on a sequel, because the franchise will now have a re-installed userbase. They've resuscitated a property that previously had little to no value, into something audiences will go out to the cinema to see if WB are not stupid.
Mr. Pointy
Member
Mad Max will probably get a sequel on a smaller budget. Or a bigger budget if they go PG-13.
Nappuccino
Member
I imagine they'll get a sequel with the original budget intact.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
It is already much larger than the Dredd fanbase. At least judging by grosses.
Gambit 1138
Banned
Exactly. Batman Begins didn't do that hot either but what it did was revive the brand and opened the doors for The Dark Knight which completely blew up the box office and ended up becoming the third highest grossing film for a time.
Batman's brand power cannot be compared to Mad Max though. Batman was already one of if not the most iconic superhero in comics at that time so Batman's meteoric rise in the movies may not necessarily be indicative of Mad Max's potential.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Second in the US, I think
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