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Wkd Box Office 05•29-31•15 - The fault (line) in our box office, adiós Aloha

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-Plasma Reus-

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Disney is basically setting itself up for failure by giving these high-risk films ridiculously high-budgets.

But a sizable portion of the budget is allocated towards marketing right? And with good marketing, any kind of film can succeed, no matter how 'risky'. Conversely, something that is completely not risky inherently, can be destroyed by a terrible marketing campaign. I believe Tomorrowland falls in this camp.The point of marketing is to make a film succeed, and to get people to talk about it.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
Just repost this from last weeks box office thread.

Mad Max: Fury Road spoiler:

Other than
Immortan Joe losing his face and some distant vague nudity
what was there to keep this from being PG13? Even language wasn't always too severe, and I'm sure they're even allowed a few good ones. Maybe it's a rare case where the R-rating actually helps it with hype build up.

Sometimes, MPAA wants to slap R rating not because of brutal violence, nudity or swearing... but because of the compositions of action shots. Cutting away when someone's head hits the car window and then showing a different shot of victim dangling from the window is PG-13 acceptable. But having camera inside the car that continuously films the closeup of victim breaking the glass and dangling from the door is not acceptable for PG-13.
 
San Andreas had a $113M weekend worldwide. It opened in the majority of international markets this weekend, but still has a few significant openings in the future including China and South Korea. $300M will be cleared with ease, so this is going to go down as another win for Dwayne Johnson.

Rock stays winning.

Since it is the only number some of you care about:

Mad Max: Fury Road - $281M worldwide

Mad Max: The Wasteland
Starring Tom Hardy as Max Rockantsky
And Dwayne Johnson as Fuck You I'm The Rock, 500 Mil
 

Oersted

Member
He's a big star but he doesn't have the kind of draw with the audiences that go see summer tent pole movies. He should doing movies that my mom wants to see. My mom doesn't want to go see Tomorrowland.

There is some truth to that. You don't go watching Clooney as a blockbusterlead or for the gold old "you have to watch his performance".

I could see him quite well in a Richard Gere type casting, like in Out of Sight, where he worked very well.
 
Goodbye sequel :(

Doesn't it need to make like 500M to profit?
Most people commented something like $350M, it's really slowing down overseas and we don't know the details but I guess they're going to take like 40% of those $113M (If we assume that they're going to take 75% of the local box office that give us something like $132M for the studio, still a little less than the $150 budget. This film really needed China.
 

Chinner

Banned
Most people commented something like $350M, it's really slowing down overseas and we don't know the details but I guess they're going to take like 40% of those $113M (If we assume that they're going to take 75% of the local boz office that give us something like $132M for the studio, still a little less than the $150 budget. This film readdy needed China.

is it not being released in china?
 
Honestly, I'm not sure I want a Mad Max sequel all that quickly. Part of the reason this played as well as it did is because of how meticulous the pre-production was, given all that extra time they had. The circumstances behind getting all that time sucked of course, and could have been hugely detrimental, but I dont' think Fury Road ends up being the movie we got if it was made on a regular 1-2 year production schedule.

is it not being released in china?

Nope. Either Warners didn't feel like having to deal with the possibility of cutting the film to appease Chinese censors, or they simply thought one of their other movies stood a better chance of making money in the region, and being as they can only release a limited number of films there, they decided against even submitting it.
 
There is some truth to that. You don't go watching Clooney as a blockbusterlead or for the gold old "you have to watch his performance".

I could see him quite well in a Richard Gere type casting, like in Out of Sight, where he worked very well.

I'm one of the crazy few that really liked The American, and despite how schlocky it was Up In The Air wasn't too bad.

I do wonder if he could try and pull off the Liam neeson/Keanu/Denzel "old guy killing the fuck out of shit" transition, but not sure if that kind of movie is in him. He seems pretty selective which makes Tomorrowland even more puzzling.
 

pestul

Member
Most people commented something like $350M, it's really slowing down overseas and we don't know the details but I guess they're going to take like 40% of those $113M (If we assume that they're going to take 75% of the local box office that give us something like $132M for the studio, still a little less than the $150 budget. This film readdy needed China.
This extended budget is spread out over a long period. Maybe the studio is more forgiving of this situation knowing the potential growth of continuing the series. If the sequel is green-lit, the budget will definitely be clamped tightly at $100M I would say.
 

berzeli

Banned
I really do wonder at what point marketing becomes responsible for a film's lack of success. Obviously the success of a film does not depend on its quality. One could argue that marketing has more of an effect on a film's success, especially given the fact that marketing plays a large part of a film's total final expenses.

I could definitely argue that John Carter had no reason to fail at the box office based on the merit of the film itself but rather that the marketing was so godawful, that it was largely responsible for the films final losses.

Marketing is more than just advertising, although they sometimes are used interchangeably. Failure to identify a film's target audience or overestimating the size of the target audience are just as bad (if not worse) as bad advertising. I think a lot of people are very quick to decry trailers, posters, slogans, etc. as the reason something they liked failed, rather than the thing they liked just not being that attractive/good to other people.

Yes, a good trailer can definitely sell a film, personally my favourite example of this is The Social Network and how discussion about that film changed overnight with the début of the trailer. But I do feel that some people on these boards sometimes view marketing as magic, somehow being able to sell anything and everything.

Also John Carter is a very dull film, it deserved its lack of success.

Disney is basically setting itself up for failure by giving these high-risk films ridiculously high-budgets.

Yeah this I would say have played a bigger part in the financial failures of Disney. Wasn't John carter something like 250+ million dollars? Equally insane was the budget for Lone ranger (also 200+ million).
 

kswiston

Member
Nope, no China release. Japan is the last market left on June 20th

Japan's gross will probably be negligible.


Fury road made $48M overseas during the past 7 days. It should pass $200M overseas at the very least, and domestic is looking good for $150M. A $350-375M finish on a $150M film is probably enough to warrant a sequel, provided the budget was scaled back some (or the film explodes on home video).

The larger domestic cut will work in Mad Max's favour. $350M where $150M of it was domestic and none of it was from China is a lot better profit-wise than Pacific Rim's $410M where a little over $100M was domestic and 1/4 of the gross was from China.
 
Honestly, I'm not sure I want a Mad Max sequel all that quickly. Part of the reason this played as well as it did is because of how meticulous the pre-production was, given all that extra time they had. The circumstances behind getting all that time sucked of course, and could have been hugely detrimental, but I dont' think Fury Road ends up being the movie we got if it was made on a regular 1-2 year production schedule.

While true, it's not like they'd start empty handed. They got the script already, think. Plus some of the basis is set. I wouldn't want it to be rushed either though.
 

ogbg

Member
Most people commented something like $350M, it's really slowing down overseas and we don't know the details but I guess they're going to take like 40% of those $113M (If we assume that they're going to take 75% of the local box office that give us something like $132M for the studio, still a little less than the $150 budget. This film really needed China.

It could end up at more like $400M. Weekly it's dropping at 39% domestically which would project $165M if it continues. Overseas it's less clear but it made $59.3 million in the 7 days between 18th and 24th May and then $32M in the 5 days between 27th and 31st May. That's a pretty decent hold as well.
 

Chinner

Banned
It's like the thread you're not reading contains the answers to the questions you're asking.

so, what, it's obama's fault?

i'm not sure where in this thread people discuss the 150m budget/supposed development struggle, as opposed to the film turning profitable.
 
It could end up at more like $400M. Weekly it's dropping at 39% domestically which would project $165M if it continues. Overseas it's less clear but it made $59.3 million in the 7 days between 18th and 24th May and then $32M in the 5 days between 27th and 31st May. That's a pretty decent hold as well.
Really hope so, but we got new movies in the next weeks, and that can push MM further out of the box office, Insidous (wich I think'll do pretty well with the small budget) and the Melissa McCarthy 96% Fresh Rotten Tomatoes movie, after that Jurassic World with their pretty big predictions.
 

pestul

Member
Fury Road should have come out in the winter when the stench of Jupiter Ascending and Seventh Son were around.. good movies can make bank in January-March nowadays and I wish Hollywood would start to realize this.
 

kswiston

Member
I don't know that Fury Road would have done any better than it did if you gave it a different release window. This May has been really weak (outside of Avengers a month ago), and it is already way past what most analysts were expecting a month or two prior to release.
 

ogbg

Member

kswiston

Member
Yeah, it's the absolute upper end, but if you look at average weekly percentage drops in lots of films they tend to be well predicted by the first week drop.

Drops compound though. One big drop can ruin the late legs of a film, even if it recovers after.
 
$350-$400m WW really was the high end for something like Mad Max. If the budget was closer to $100m than $200m, it'd be a big success
 

Savitar

Member
Just repost this from last weeks box office thread.

Mad Max: Fury Road spoiler:

Other than
Immortan Joe losing his face and some distant vague nudity
what was there to keep this from being PG13? Even language wasn't always too severe, and I'm sure they're even allowed a few good ones. Maybe it's a rare case where the R-rating actually helps it with hype build up.

Answer.

It shouldn't have the R. The MPAA has favored films over others before when it comes to their rating system, some directions can get away with a rating being lowered where as another film with various directors will get a worse rating. It doesn't help most of these people are out of touch and in their 50's and older.
 
Drops compound though. One big drop can ruin the late legs of a film, even if it recovers after.

That Jurassic World weekend is going to hurt mad Max quite badly. It will probably lose 700-800 theaters at least that weekend. I'm not sold on 150m either yet either, but with 375 million, strong WOM, and presumably solid home video sales to come, I think WB has enough to work with to go for a sequel.
 

DeathyBoy

Banned
Closer to Serenity than Sex and the City.

ducks-laughing.gif


They had a 'photo' booth with an Entourage backdrop at London MCM. I was there all three days and didn't see anyone take a photo there.
 

guek

Banned
Honestly, I'm not sure I want a Mad Max sequel all that quickly. Part of the reason this played as well as it did is because of how meticulous the pre-production was, given all that extra time they had. The circumstances behind getting all that time sucked of course, and could have been hugely detrimental, but I dont' think Fury Road ends up being the movie we got if it was made on a regular 1-2 year production schedule.
Eh. I don't know if I agree or disagree. On one hand, Miller is more than a one shot wonder. I respect him immensely as a filmmaker. On the other hand, what if we see a drop in quality akin to Happy Feet --> Happy Feet 2? I don't think my heart could take it.
 

AHA-Lambda

Member
But a sizable portion of the budget is allocated towards marketing right? And with good marketing, any kind of film can succeed, no matter how 'risky'. Conversely, something that is completely not risky inherently, can be destroyed by a terrible marketing campaign. I believe Tomorrowland falls in this camp.The point of marketing is to make a film succeed, and to get people to talk about it.

I really feel in the minority here and the numbers prove it, but the trailers intrigued me and I wanted to see the movie! =/

Admittedly, it wasn't very good >_>

ducks-laughing.gif


They had a 'photo' booth with an Entourage backdrop at London MCM. I was there all three days and didn't see anyone take a photo there.

Lol, to be fair, I don't think Entourage has any relevance in the UK, I'd never heard of it until I heard people on this forum mention there was a movie for it and I know no one who's ever mentioned it before either =/
Very anecdotal I admit, but I've seen zero advertising for it here either.
 

JDSN

Banned
Really loving to see Aloha with their fake hawaian people bomb while a movie with a Pacific Islander gets the top spot.
 

Blader

Member
Goodbye sequel :(

Doesn't it need to make like 500M to profit?

Feels like there's too much buzz on this film to NOT give it a sequel, and it's not like it's a bomb either. It probably won't be out for like 4-5 years and with a tighter budget, but I think it's more likely we see Wasteland than not.
 
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