Let me lay this out and see what you guys think.
October 6, 2004 - Gamespot article
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/10/06/news_6109802.html
To get to the bottom of some of the [Seattle Times] article's more head-scratching assertions, GameSpot contacted a Microsoft representative for clarification. To wit, the story's report that more than 1 million presales have been recorded for Halo 2 is "premature and speculative," said the Microsoft rep. Official numbers have preorders for the highly anticipated sequel at 750,000 units.
October 19,2004 - Microsoft Press Release
http://www.majornelson.com/blog/2004/10/halo-2-breaks-recordsbefore-its-even.html
With three weeks to go before the game hits store shelves, pre-orders for “Halo® 2” – the highly anticipated Xbox® exclusive from Microsoft Game Studios – have eclipsed the 1.5 million mark in the United States.
November 10, 2004 - Xbox.com article
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/press/2004/1110-halo2-history.htm
Halo 2 broke entertainment retail records in its first 24 hours on store shelves. Microsoft Game Studios today announced that the highly-anticipated game sold through 2.4 million units...
The first quote is a bit confusing, but I wanted to leave it in context for the sake of noting that its information came directly from a Microsoft representative. Basically, a Seattle Times article said Halo 2 was at 1 million preorders, but upon contacting an MS rep, Gamespot determined that information to be innacurate.
You have to assume that Gamespot is correct in stating that Halo 2, on October 6, was at 750,000 preorders because they're using a direct quote from a Microsoft representative. It makes sense to me that preorders would pick up the closer a game gets to release, especially with major franchises like Halo, due to Microsoft's massive marketing campaigns, but there is a 750,000 number jump between the Gamespot article, and Microsoft's press release only two weeks later. Is it possible that preorders
doubled in only two weeks? The information given by the MS rep for Gamespot's article may have been relying on a past count, so it's likely that the 2 week period between Gamespot's article and the Microsoft press release actually accounted for a longer period of time for preorders - let's be conservative and say a month or so - which would put the 750,000 number at 2 months before Halo 2's release - the exact same time we've just received the 1 million mark regarding Halo 3.
So, basically, in the second-to-last month leading up to Halo 2's release, is it possible that the amount of preorders
doubled from 750,000 to 1.5 million? Unless the Microsoft representative in Gamespot's article was simply
wrong, which seems unlikely, then it must be true.
It's also safe to assume that the Xbox.com article is accurate in stating that Halo 2 sold 2.4 million copies within the first 24 hours.
So here's what we have:
Preorders doubled in the second-to-last month leading up to Halo 2's release. And on release day, it sells 1 million more than the final preorder tally.
Halo 3 is currently at 1 million preorders. So, using the numbers we've just been looking at, Halo 3's preorders should double during this next month, going up to 2 million copies preordered. And then, on launch day, it should sell another million on top of that - putting it up to 3 million copies within its first 24 hours.
Of course, there are lots of variables - the 360 having a smaller install base than the Xbox, MS's slightly more aggressive marketing strategy, as well as the recent price drop affecting consumers' desicions to purchase a new system. But, if the information in these articles and press releases is correct, I think it's reasonable to assume that Halo 3 will sell close to 3 million copies within its first 24 hours.
EDIT: I should mention that this whole thing started when I found an old press release stating that Halo 2 had 1.5 million preorders before its launch. Which why the headline describing today's Halo 3 preorder press release describes it this way:
'Halo 3' Becomes Fastest-Selling Pre-Ordered Video Game in History
The record that it broke is its
speed in presales, not its amount.
Anyone who may not have heard of this piece, check here...
